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alexcaruso808

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Posts posted by alexcaruso808

    Cambridgeshire - Saturday

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

    48 hr declarations probably, it will be back on. or if saturday is listed on todays racing ie today fri sat it will be there if not that is what is happening and it will appear there it is no longer anti post.

    I will keep an eye out - when I read your speed ratings I was going to have a look at the horses again and bet on some of your selections.  

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 1/10/2021 at 5:35 PM, richard-westwood said:

    Form on ground     ( 15% )

    Won on ground    10pts 

    Placed on ground 8pts 

    Won on near to today's ground I.e good if today's gd/soft       6pts

    Placed on near today's ground  4pts 

    Ground not close  2pts 

     

    Distance form  (20%)

    Won dist    10pts 

    Placed dist    8pts 

    Won within 2f   6pts 

    Placed within 2f  4pts 

    No form 3f+  2pts 

     

    How far back do you go to find out the horses's form on ground and form over the distance?  

     

    Thanks!

    Are the OR and RPRs an accurate representation of how good a horse is?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Well, here are some preliminary results:

    Version A - OR and RPR factored into the system

    Version B - OR and  RPR not factored into system.  

    The horses in bold are the ones that I had shortlisted and I have noted what version of the system gave me them to shortlist.

    2.25 Beverly

    1st - Ugo Gregory 

    2nd - Arranmore - Version B

    3rd - La Rav - Version A & B

    4th - Danielsflyer 

    5th - Urban War - Version A & B

    6th - Give It Some Teddy

    7th - King's Pavillion 

    8th -  Blu Boy - Version A & B

    9th - Little Jo

    10th - Quiet Assassin 

    11th - Blowing Wind

    I have some other races that I'm watching too - no bets, just testing the system.  

    Are the OR and RPRs an accurate representation of how good a horse is?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Bang on said:

    Of course, that's the nature of the game. Gradually get the horse fully fit and ready, whilst all the time trying to get the handicap mark down. That makes the 'Official Rating' redundant at times, although I'm sure it counts for much more in the valuable handicaps and Group races.

    As for RPR ratings, the racing post ratings are a 'help' but are only someones opinion.  For FACTS, check out the NAPS competition in the R.Post, RPR is in the bottom 7 of 52 tipsters. As for ALL races this year, they are currently showing a 26% strike rate, despite tipping 46% favourites. Treat with caution Alex.

    Now that is interesting.  Thanks for the info.

     

    17 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    It all depends how you use your ratings.

    For example if a horse has won over the CD then that is a positive factor in terms of how likely it is to win.

    However these horses are overbet so it is a negative factor in terms of value.

     

    What I did for today was make two sets of calculations.  One has included RPR and OR (I add these together and get an average) and the other is calculated without these.   I have noted the horses so I will be interesting to see the results.

     

    USA Racing

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, calva decoy said:

    I tend to use them although on US site Equibase they can differ with At The Races & I use Racing Post for trainer & jockey stats at courses .

    Far easier to pick a winner over 5.5f on Gulfsteam's dirt track than it is in this weekend's Cambridgeshire .

    Where are the course stats on Racing Post?  

    Dodgy pulled up and unseated horses

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

    a few today

    Plumpton

    3.40 Baby sham 40/1 5 places

    4.10 My boy james 28/1 4 places

    4.10 Jumping jack 40/1 4 places

    Listowel

    2.30 Owenacurra lass 33/1

    2.30 Rathnaleen tou 12/1

    2.30 Courtin Bb 66/1 5places

    3.00 Prussia with love 20/1

    3.00 She's commanche 12/1

    3.00 Seafield fox 66/1 6 places

    3.30 Bite that 50/1 5 places

    3.30 carry on buddy 50/1 6 places

    3.30 lightining star 50/1 6places

    all bets 25p e/w g/l lee bet365

    Looks like you had a few placers in there mate.

    Bite That came in second at 50/1, which should have made you a few quid!

     

    USA Racing

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by alexcaruso808

    8 hours ago, calva decoy said:

    Two more Godolphin charges are running tonight at Woodbine in the 1006 & 1039 , I would name them but can't read my own writing ?

    Thanks - I forgot to check the Godolphin website today!! 

    Woodbine

    10.06 - Wild beauty - 2.75 1st ?

     22.39 - Albahr - 2.25 1st ?

     

    Both bets are for these horses to win.  Hopefully the Appleby / Dettori team will work their magic again.

    Conflict Cup

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

    2nd & 1st @ 15\8 yesterday

    Thaki 16.55 Wolverhampton 1 Pt WIn @ 13\8 (bog)

    13/8, career best when winning 11-runner minor event at this C&D 24 days ago, keeping on well. May have more to offer for this yard. 

    History 13.35 Gowran Park 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)

    Promising individual. Second of 13 in maiden at Tipperary (7.5f, good, 5/2) 23 days ago, barely adequate test. Sure to go well upped slightly in trip. 

    Thanks mate, your selections are fantastic. 

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