Zilzalian

Orbaan 5th .....got some 40/1 yest ew so ew money returning .....ouzo was 7th ew on skybet but I didnt back with sky lol 

@Tumbleweed King and others although @Tedthewolfhas clocked it. I see no mention anywhere o tumbleweeds list of potentially the best horse in the race a proven group 3 performer an any going and at distances up to  9F. the risk you are taking is, Is it fit? we all know new (ish) trainers need to get their name up in lights and this horse passed from The Brilliant A Fabre to S Chrisford (didnt run for him) and then to T J Kent who worked for Godophin amongst others so he must know plenty about this horse. 100/1 this morning (fri) had me falling off my chair it is now generally 50/1 which would have had me falling off my chair if i hadn't seen the 100's. will just add a little coincidence here in the 2:00 donny runs tres fluer another ex Fabre gg and that is overpriced at 33/1. Me being on the very greedy side have done both gg's in a whopping ew dble (about 3,300/1 and both in singles. Bet the lead in the pencil people (nap).

At least at Cheltenham you know the horse will be trying to win, even if it wasn't in it's previous race.
I tend to do well at Cheltenham, mostly by taking advantage of bookmakers offers rather than form analysis.
I always go to the Grand National and it's always been very successful, usually by backing outsiders, favourites don't tend to do very well there.

I agree with what your saying to a degree i backed galopin des champs purely on an interview mullins gave at the beginning of the season but not on form. my big contention is running on merits some of the winners at the festival definitely were not running on their merits in previous races. lets be honest here if you cant win "a standard race" in its class then you must explain why it won at the very top grade. had minella indo shown enough form (better) to beat the others? the handicaps are worse, shocking, verging on scandalous. i am not talking about one offs here i identified 12 out of 28 races where the result was very dubious. I dont back horse to make a profit although it is always a plus, i back for the fun and challenge. I have a new system for next year- cross out all the English runners reduce the fields then get my darts out and fire them at the list of each race.

I agree with what your saying to a degree i backed galopin des champs purely on an interview mullins gave at the beginning of the season but not on form. my big contention is running on merits some of the winners at the festival definitely were not running on their merits in previous races. lets be honest here if you cant win "a standard race" in its class then you must explain why it won at the very top grade. had minella indo shown enough form (better) to beat the others? the handicaps are worse, shocking, verging on scandalous. i am not talking about one offs here i identified 12 out of 28 races where the result was very dubious. I dont back horse to make a profit although it is always a plus, i back for the fun and challenge. I have a new system for next year- cross out all the English runners reduce the fields then get my darts out and fire them at the list of each race.

I agree with what your saying to a degree i backed galopin des champs purely on an interview mullins gave at the beginning of the season but not on form. my big contention is running on merits some of the winners at the festival definitely were not running on their merits in previous races. lets be honest here if you cant win "a standard race" in its class then you must explain why it won at the very top grade. had minella indo shown enough form (better) to beat the others? the handicaps are worse, shocking, verging on scandalous. i am not talking about one offs here i identified 12 out of 28 races where the result was very dubious. I dont back horse to make a profit although it is always a plus, i back for the fun and challenge. I have a new system for next year- cross out all the English runners reduce the fields then get my darts out and fire them at the list of each race.

I saw all three best mates gold cups went to the last 2 days 3 years running it would have been four if foot and mouth hadnt popped up i really do recommend it to any and everyone.

I saw all three best mates gold cups went to the last 2 days 3 years running it would have been four if foot and mouth hadnt popped up i really do recommend it to any and everyone.

I saw all three best mates gold cups went to the last 2 days 3 years running it would have been four if foot and mouth hadnt popped up i really do recommend it to any and everyone.

Feel Cheated?
28 races at the Cheltenham festival at least 12 races were won by horses that didn't couldn't win an ordinary race/s (for their grade) previously and on several occasions.
Tiger Roll, Minella Indo, black tears (12+ lengths behind concertista beats concertista), Galopin Des Champs, etc etc. So it begs the question cheating the handicapper and the punters? Yes I fully agree that those that own horses do not owe the punters anything but when you win a race of the highest grade but can't win "standard" races then I think it fair that questions should be asked, especially when we have a rule that all horses must run on their merit.

Unfortunately it happens all the time in racing doesn’t it. Trainers trying to get their horses well handicapped by hook or by crook .

and no one asked why they have been cheating with it this year. watch its last race nothing wrong with the horse they pulled/stopped it.

You don't have to do only 14 ...... most people will pick a horse in every race
14 is just the minimum number of selections to be included in the final table
It's just the same as the Monthly Naps comp ....... most people pick one every day but there's a minimum number of selections to qualify for the final table
seems perfectly sensible to me

One of the things that is essential to remember about the Cheltenham festival is that the best form guide is actually the Cheltenham festival, last year for this year this year for next year.

One of the things that is essential to remember about the Cheltenham festival is that the best form guide is actually the Cheltenham festival, last year for this year this year for next year.

talking of anti post, watched earth summit win the welsh national at xmas, checked betting 33/1 for GN backed it every week at all prices from 33/1 to 10/1 told everyone to back it, fortunately it pissed down the week of GN so it was a shoe in.

An observation on the gold cup from this quarter, i have never really taken to Frodon, i don't know why, maybe i passed it over too easily in the past, However i listened to John Francome say it was the best jumper he has ever seen, he said this before it won the King George and when it won i kicked myself for not taking note of one of if not the best jump jockeys of all time, i have watched all the vids this week and the more i watched the more i am convinced that if it stays the distance it will be close, last years gold cup was interesting but what struck me was how Santini was catching Al boum photo at the line after having been passed by the winner and others 2 out then had to be switched. so there you have it. Santini and Frodon rfc. Its all about opinions chaps and chappess's.

backed it last year and will again this year great value

I am using the same rules as for the Naps competition.
It doesn't seem to make sense (to me at least) that in effect every bet is treated as if it was a free bet.
This will encourage more people to choose longer odds shots as there is no downside to having a loser.
I will go back to the original rules if that is what people prefer but it does seem a tad artificial and does not reflect the real world in which we operate.
We did run the Xmas competition with the new rules and that didn't seem to cause any problems.
 

I am in full agreement with @MCLARKE on this it is fair and like someone above said we can all tweak and have differing ideas so not all will be happy 14 picks is fair by any measure as is losers/losses. it works fine for the regular naps.

Yes the collateral damage ie his staff are going to suffer, and i do agree with @Villa Chris he should not be forced out of the game. its such a shame for all concerned, the hardest part of this to swallow is that it never needed to happen the "mistake" he made was stupid beyond belief but it did highlight his flaws and they wont change, they can only be concealed.

I keep wanting to say isn't all this a bit over the top? Then i sit and think, wait a minute every Saturday i hear all the pundits owners, stable staff, trainers, telling the viewers how much care and love the horses get etc etc the amount of effort that has been put in to counter the loony "ban this cruel sport brigade" and then i think, sorry pal you (Elliott) have pretty much f****d us and the sport you deserve everything you get no matter what punishment they give you.

I keep wanting to say isn't all this a bit over the top? Then i sit and think, wait a minute every Saturday i hear all the pundits owners, stable staff, trainers, telling the viewers how much care and love the horses get etc etc the amount of effort that has been put in to counter the loony "ban this cruel sport brigade" and then i think, sorry pal you (Elliott) have pretty much f****d us and the sport you deserve everything you get no matter what punishment they give you.

Yes the collateral damage ie his staff are going to suffer, and i do agree with @Villa Chris he should not be forced out of the game. its such a shame for all concerned, the hardest part of this to swallow is that it never needed to happen the "mistake" he made was stupid beyond belief but it did highlight his flaws and they wont change, they can only be concealed.

I love this debate on distance/length/weight debate (rhymes at least) so hope you don't mind my two penneth worth.
"Confounding variables" far too many of them in this debate, think of all your picks and then think of the successfulness of your picks, usually you find a common denominator. but it is more important to try to find out why your pick got beat because you probably made a mistake and like they say if you keep doing the same thing over and over you get the same result. I do speed figures for 2 yo. if a horse got beat 1 length it gets minus 6 points, and -1 point per 1/4 length thereafter i wont go into reasons why 1 length = 6 and not 4 points but trust me it works, so beaten 1l = -6 points, 1 1/4l = -7, 1 1/2 = -8  2l would be -10 points and so on, (beyond 8l is pointless and just a waste of time)