Lincoln handicap saturday

[richard-westwood]

Thoughts or fancies ?.....it early yet and could be loads non runners but I've passed the race through the computer and its thrown out .....ouzo and orban top 2 rated ....currently 29.0 and 32.0 on betfair .....I'll take a chance and try 10pt each ante post .....get the flat off with a bang ......I'll value rate it later in week 

[Villa Chris]

Looks a decent card at Doncaster . Just no form to go off to rate. I know some horses run well fresh and some don’t. Some will be fit and others won’t . Some will improve for being a year older . 

[Tumbleweed King]

Hi all, 

Just thought I would do a small preview of one of the main races from this upcoming weekend following on from the big race wins on the Cheltenham tips mini-site. Hope you enjoy and I would love to see you opinions on the Lincoln this coming weekend. 

Lincoln Preview 2021 – Doncaster 3-10 Saturday Afternoon

The Lincoln is the first major flat handicap of the season and it takes place this coming Saturday at Doncaster Racecourse. It is open to horses aged four and older.

Year	Horse	Age	Draw	Weight	Jockey	Trainer	SP	Winning Time
2000	John Ferneley	5	1	8-10	Jimmy Fortune	Paul Cole	7/1 JF	1:41.12
2001	Nimello	5	1	8-09	Jimmy Fortune	Paul Cole	9/2 F	1:46.68
2002	Zucchero	6	7	8-13	Simon Whitworth	David Arbuthnot	33/1	1:45.44
2003	Pablo	4	6	8-11	Michael Hills	Barry Hills	5/1	1:39.18
2004	Babodana	4	23	9-10	Philip Robinson	Mark Tompkins	20/1	1:40.15
2005	Stream of Gold	4	13	9-00	Robert Winston	Sir Michael Stoute	5/1 F	1:38.18
2006	Blythe Knight	6	9*	8-10	Graham Gibbons	John Quinn	22/1	1:44.33
2007	Very Wise	5	16**	8-11	Joe Fanning	William Haggas	9/1	1:46.18
2008	Smokey Oakey	4	12	8-09	Jimmy Quinn	Mark Tompkins	10/1	1:42.38
2009	Expresso Star	4	9	8-12	Jimmy Fortune	John Gosden	10/3 F	1:36.51
2010	Penitent	4	6	9-02	Johnny Murtagh	William Haggas	3/1 F	1:43.31
2011	Sweet Lightning	6	16	9-04	Johnny Murtagh	Michael Dods	16/1	1:38.38
2012	Brae Hill	6	12	9-01	Tony Hamilton	Richard Fahey	25/1	1:37.36
2013	Levitate	5	3	8-04	Darren Egan	John Quinn	20/1	1:41.91
2014	Ocean Tempest	5	5	9-03	Adam Kirby	John Ryan	20/1	1:40.17
2015	Gabrial	6	15	9-00	Tony Hamilton	Richard Fahey	12/1	1:39.62
2016	Secret Brief	4	22	9-04	William Buick	Charlie Appleby	12/1	1:46.25
2017	Bravery	4	20	9-01	Daniel Tudhope	David O'Meara	20/1	1:38.38
2018	Addeybb	4	10	9-02	James Doyle	William Haggas	5/1	1:43.56
2019	Auxerre	4	17	9-02	James Doyle	Charlie Appleby	5/2 F	1:36.82

*2006 race was run at Redcar

** 2007 race was run at Newcastle

I shall highlight some of the main contenders and hopefully give you some help in choosing the winner from what is likely to be a full field of a maximum of 22 runners.

No horse has won carrying more than 9-04 since Right Wing won the race in 1999. You have to go all the way back to 1985 winner Cataldi to find any other horse carrying more than 9-05 to victory.

Four year olds with double digit draws have proven victorious in recent years and Charlie Appleby has been responsible for two of those four winners. This time he has targeted Eastern World at this race following a recent win out in Meydan.

 

Eastern World – Charlie Appleby – James Doyle

Eastern World gets into this off a mark of 98 but could well be a group horse in a handicap. If he were to receive a double figure draw, I would be a little sweeter on him. He was firmly put in his place by Haqeeqy here back in September when chinned by thirteen lengths. He clearly thrived through the winter to win at Meydan last time and given connections have won this twice in the last four years he commands respect.

Haqeeqy – John Gosden – Benoit De La Sayette

Haqeeqy hasn’t won this race in over a decade and whilst he thrived last season, he would do well to win this with 9-05 on his back. Babodana carried five pounds more back in 2004 when sauntering to success here. He is proven on the track and has been gelded since his last run. He did try this trip once last year and finished last of ten on the July course at Newmarket so that is worth keeping in mind.

Brentford Hope – Richard Hughes – Jamie Spence

Brentford Hope improved with each run last year accumulating in a ¾ length win over Mascat at Haydock back in October. That came on heavy ground though and that would be a major concern given the drying out of the track at the moment. He was a bitterly disappointing 6/4 favourite when turned over at York last Summer on similar going. Despite the booking of Jamie Spencer, it would be a no from me.

River Nymph – Clive Cox – Adam Kirby

River Nymph was only beaten a length on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield last season following a near seven-month break. He clearly goes well fresh though and won two low grade handicaps at Ascot and Newbury. He will need to put in a career defining performance to win this, prove that he stays a mile and he just looks too high in the weights.

King Ottokar – Charlie Fellowes – Ben Curtis

King Ottokar won on his first two runs in 2018 and 2019 but fluffed his lines when sent into Group Three company at the beginning of last season. His best run last year came in a handicap back at this track where he was beaten 4¾ lengths by Matthew Flinders. He has dropped to his lowest ever handicap mark and is proven over further than this. Tends to be suited by rain in the ground though and drying conditions look set to be against him.

Danyah – Owen Burrowes – Kieran Shoemark

Danyah has a highly progressive profile and won two of his four outings last year including at this track. He was placed on soft ground at Ripon over this trip but with drying ground likely to be in his favour, he would be worth another shot at it here. Kieran Shoemark has been placed on him before and this would be a sentimental start to flat season should he carry the first colours of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum to victory following his late owner’s recent passing. He has to be of interest.

Grove Ferry – Andrew Balding – William Carver

Grove Ferry warmed up for this nicely with a decent win at Lingfield last time out following a four-month break. He is a versatile character and having won on anything from good to firm to Soft, the four-year-old is well worth his place in this line-up. He has run well here in the past and looks the type to run a big race despite a big weight.

Born To Be Alive – Karl Burke – Clifford Lee

Born To Be Alive has won his two most recent starts on the all-weather surfaces of Wolverhampton and Kempton. As a result, he has been raised seven pounds in the ratings. There are no problems with the mile as he gets it well, but he is untested on turf for almost three years. The last time he ran here he wasn’t beaten far by Zabeel Prince but that was three years ago and he would have an each ay chance if retaking to the surface.

Brunch – Michael Dods – Callum Rodriguez

Brunch found the mud to be against him when last seen out at Newmarket in October when he was beaten a dozen lengths by Zakouski amongst others. Prior to that he had a useful profile especially at this trip and won races at Newcastle and York. He was fit enough to do himself justice on his first run last year and this consistent son of Harbour Watch is fully capable of playing a role here.

Ascension – Roger Varian –

Ascension has been a model of consistency for owners Highclere Thoroughbred Racing. He comes here on the back of a five-month break but is essentially better suite by a bit of give in the ground. He has gone in at Ayr, Newmarket, Salisbury and Newcastle so he certainly knows where the winning post is. If the rains were to come I would be a bit keener, but given the current state of the ground it is hard to see him winning given that the only time he met ground on the firmer side, he finished last of four at Newmarket.

Johan – William Haggas – Ciaren Fallon

Willie Haggas has won this race on multiple occasions with the likes of Very Wise, Penitent and Addeybb. This son of Zoffany looks likely to shoulder top-weight in this fiercely competitive handicap. He is likely to improve for having been gelded in the early part of the new year and he has gone well fresh in the past. He won’t mind if there is no rain around and having chalked up wins at Chelmsford, Ayr, Newbury, Musselburgh and Lingfield, he is rapidly shooting up the handicap. He is rated higher at this stage than any of the yard’s other three winners and if he handles the weight he will go extremely close.

Man Of The Night – Richard Hannon – Rossa Ryan

Man Of The Night has never looked the most straight-forward of individuals despite having won on his debut at Newbury in July 2019. Since then he has always found a way to be beaten. He made a comeback at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago when beaten two lengths by Born To Be Alive having endured a nightmare of a run under Sean Levey. A return to turf will suit him but chances are he will find a few too good again.

Kynren – David Barron – Connor Beasley

Kynren usually runs his race but he has always needed his first run back to build upon it. He ran some fair races last year without success and he has now dropped to his lowest mark since October 2019. He does handle big fields well which is a plus, but he is without a win in over two years and would ideally love some cut in the ground. Connor Beasley takes the ride for the first time but it would need a career best from both to trouble the judge.

Ouzo – Richard Hannon – Sean Levey

Ouzo won on his last outing at this level in a competitive handicap at York last October on soft ground. He has been raised five pounds for that success and would want the ground no quicker than good. Despite the ammunition that Richard Hannon has had down the years, he has never trained the winner of this race, but this five-year-old gives him a squeak. He is another with plenty of large field experience and he could just hit the frame.

Alternative Fact – Ed Dunlop – Silvestre De Sousa

Alternative Fact needs soft ground as all three of his career victories have come when there has been plenty of rain around. He has not been done any favours by the handicapper here, who seriously needs to relent a bit given his limitations. He has been beaten soundly by a couple of today’s rivals before including Danyah and Ouzo. He is beginning to look extremely vulnerable.

History Writer – David Menusier – Kevin Scott

History Writer was considered good enough to compete in a couple of Group races last year, albeit he was soundly beaten in all three. A return to handicaps is likely to see him in a much better light and he may well prove a forgotten horse. He has won and been placed in listed company so he is certainly no mug and his trainer will prove a force to be reckoned with this year. A mile is certainly well within his scope, but he is another that tends to benefit for a run. If putting it altogether he could grab a place.

Scottish Summit – Geoffrey Harker – Sam James

Scottish Summit is still on a career high mark but ran a fair enough race on his comeback behind Born To Be Alive at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago. He has often run well at big prices in the past but at the age of eight, you would be disappointed if there wasn’t something that would have the legs of him amongst the younger crop. He is unproven at this level and this could prove a step beyond him.

Into Faith – David Menusier – Rhys Clutterbuck

Into Faith ran three times at Saint-Cloud last year without showing much sparkle. The four-year-old son of Intello has managed only one career win in nine starts and that came at Longchamp on some seriously soft going. Things look a lot tougher here and he looks completely out of his depth.

Librisa Breeze – Dean Ivory – Joey Haynes

Librisa Breeze is certainly well handicapped on the best of his winning form but he has looked regressive in recent starts. His two best runs came on rain softened ground. He would have a live each way chance if this was held at his beloved Ascot, but he was beaten over seven lengths the last time he raced on this track and is hard to recommend.

Revich – Richard Spencer – Angus Villiers

Revich clearly loves a turning track having picked up a win at Epsom and three at Chester in his career. He has never won over a mile with all of his successes coming at seven or an extended seven furlongs. He looks fairly exposed now and others appeal more. He looks high enough in the ratings and needs a bit of respite from the handicapper.

Conclusion

I will take two against the field and the first horse I am immediately drawn to is the Owen Burrowes trained Danyah. An improving sort, he could well prove this 98 rating a mockery. The horse has serious talent if it can win with Dane O’Neill in the saddle (sorry Dane). He handles this track and also good ground. He has gone well fresh in the past and remains completely unexposed. He is weighted to reverse form with River Nymph based on their meeting at Newbury last summer. Another one who could well have a say is the top-weight Johan. He comes here rated higher than Addeybb, Very Wise and Penitent when they won for William Haggas. The weight is a lot though in a race of this nature. At a huge price History Writer could well grab a place should conditions take a turn for the worse.

[richard-westwood]

On 3/23/2021 at 7:21 PM, richard-westwood said:

Thoughts or fancies ?.....it early yet and could be loads non runners but I've passed the race through the computer and its thrown out .....ouzo and orban top 2 rated ....currently 29.0 and 32.0 on betfair .....I'll take a chance and try 10pt each ante post .....get the flat off with a bang ......I'll value rate it later in week 

Both are still in 22 runners so I'm confident I'll get a run now so prices look fantastic value  ..   I'll value rate all runners later today to see if theres anything hiding in wings 

I was going to rate the big spring mile too but I passed it through the computer and it spat out 2 horses well clear .... mascat   .. and mostawwaar ....so I'm happy to just go with those 2 ew once full prices come online .....currently 9 and 18 available but I'll wait for ew places possibly later today  

[richard-westwood]

Lincoln hcap ratings 

Orbaan  7.5 10/1 33/1 excellent value 

Eastern world  6.9 11/1 4/1 poor value

Ouzo  6.7  12/1 25/1 excellent value 

Horzadar   6.0 13/1 50/1 outstanding value 

Danyah 5.8 13/1 12/1 no value 

Open race as youd expect ...top 3 are a little clear of rest but that's not to say hortzadar or danyah couldn't run well and place .....I have 2 of top 3 already covered thankfully at high prices so I'll back eastern world at 4/1 10pts and that's the top 3 covered ...I'll also try win doubles with the spring mile top 2 

[Striker]

Fascinating race

Can Benoit really get the Fav home on...his first turf ride!

Can Eastern World back up that big priced Meydan win?

Have to admit am already on at 20-1 for the Appleby horse who did me a big favour that day and fits the profile of a Group rated recent winner

Also taken the 25's on another similar type who was also in my "Follow" thread in Man Of The Night and though this trip not ideal has a big pay day in him

What about another old friend in Orbaan who owes me nothing after his big priced York win, but has disappointed since. However could not let him after his breathing operation go unbacked at 40-1

Good Luck

[Tedthewolf]

I've taken 3 e/w against the field 

Main one is KING OTTOKAR 12/1 1/4 5 places bog  This horse has a bit of class unlucky on only 2 handicap runs should get away with the ground hopefully needs  a bit of luck in running which has not been the case of late would not take any less than 12's but i will be very disappointed if this horse doesn't go close today.

Two that looked well handicaped also are  KNYREN 25/1 e/w  1/4 5 places bog & i also had a small nibble on GRAPHITE who i think will outrun its odds i was lucky to get 66/1 6places 1/5  not bog thats now gone but still 50 with some bookies  was as big as 100/1 at the start of the day that was just crazy  can see it going off around 25's.

The three i have backed e/w  for the spring mile  also look a cracking contest  OVERITE 25/1 (now 16's) ANYTHINGTODAY 25/1 LEDHAM 80/1 7places not bog

Good luck  Folks

 

[Zilzalian]

@Tumbleweed King and others although @Tedthewolfhas clocked it. I see no mention anywhere o tumbleweeds list of potentially the best horse in the race a proven group 3 performer an any going and at distances up to  9F. the risk you are taking is, Is it fit? we all know new (ish) trainers need to get their name up in lights and this horse passed from The Brilliant A Fabre to S Chrisford (didnt run for him) and then to T J Kent who worked for Godophin amongst others so he must know plenty about this horse. 100/1 this morning (fri) had me falling off my chair it is now generally 50/1 which would have had me falling off my chair if i hadn't seen the 100's. will just add a little coincidence here in the 2:00 donny runs tres fluer another ex Fabre gg and that is overpriced at 33/1. Me being on the very greedy side have done both gg's in a whopping ew dble (about 3,300/1 and both in singles. Bet the lead in the pencil people (nap).

[richard-westwood]

On 3/25/2021 at 12:17 PM, richard-westwood said:

Both are still in 22 runners so I'm confident I'll get a run now so prices look fantastic value  ..   I'll value rate all runners later today to see if theres anything hiding in wings 

I was going to rate the big spring mile too but I passed it through the computer and it spat out 2 horses well clear .... mascat   .. and mostawwaar ....so I'm happy to just go with those 2 ew once full prices come online .....currently 9 and 18 available but I'll wait for ew places possibly later today  

Mostawaar 3rd ...ew money ...good run

[richard-westwood]

On 3/23/2021 at 7:21 PM, richard-westwood said:

Thoughts or fancies ?.....it early yet and could be loads non runners but I've passed the race through the computer and its thrown out .....ouzo and orban top 2 rated ....currently 29.0 and 32.0 on betfair .....I'll take a chance and try 10pt each ante post .....get the flat off with a bang ......I'll value rate it later in week 

Orbaan 5th .....got some 40/1 yest ew so ew money returning .....ouzo was 7th ew on skybet but I didnt back with sky lol