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Zilzalian
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Posts
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Posts posted by Zilzalian
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15 minutes ago, Bang on said:
Whatever happens, I too would expect Native Trail to figure high in any ratings.
5 races, 5 wins, including over CD. Already a Group 1 winner, and has won on the going. Not to mention the trainer who is as hot as any at the moment IMO. I have no problem with anyone going against the favourite, but wouldn't expect him not to figure.
all valid points and it is high in my ratings just not high enough. you wouldnt believe how often i have heard those arguments over the years and they are valid but i can only go with what i have. there will be a few who will say "told you so" if native trail wins and if it loses they will have an excuse for it, and i will take them seriously if they show me a pic of the £100 quid they had on. and still i will know that no ratings produce a winner everytime so i simply move on to next race.
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Traise Fluors what a pity the itv pundits commented on it but remember, this was trained by Fabre in france often at group level
so is chucked in no matter which race it pops up in. personally i will avoid if fav.
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8 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
The answer is very simple. Native Trail is Timeform's top rated for today. It is also RPR's top rated and finally @richard-westwood's second top rated. You have simply got it wrong for Native Trail and if this means that all your other ratings are off, then you need to re-assess them. Plain and simple. If you don't accept this I am afraid you are arrogant.
The only faults that the pundits could find with Native Trail were will it handle the "dip" and the firmer going. I hope that this proves to be so and no one more than me would like to see your selections romp home to prove all the experts wrong. Good luck
Well arrogance aside which i really am guilty of, my ratings make money year in and year out its the other rubbish i fiddle about with that costs me money, look at your answer to my question. it has nothing to do with your thinking or opinion apart from reading other peoples "stuff" and amplifying it. maybe thats why you keep losing money year on year which means other people lose it for you. I love the fact i came up with an idea learnt how to create formula in excel, put it into practice and it was succesful. you have spent 11 points today if all your selections win how much overall will you collect? dont forget your double handed with some of your points so apart from a dead heat you have already backed losers before they run.
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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Haha, being the proven mug punter that I am I have had 1 pt win at 5/1 on Coroebus. I would have had a 1 point win cover bet on Native Trail but having seen the light I have now had a 1 pt 5 places cover bet on Lusail at 5.8 for a profit of 4.70. It may be useful for you to re-check your rating system as it seems way off course with Native Trail. Only trying to help ?
Shows how much you know or rather don't know about ratings, If my rating for native trail is way off then every other of my ratings for every other horse is also way off because they are pruduced all using the exact same formula. it would be very unwise for me to downgrade or upgrade 1 horse because of hype or tipster opinion. the very idea of having a ratings formula is that it takes out personal or any other bias, at the end of the day you could come up with a 1000 excuses not to back a horse. at least a rating is definitive.
I have a question for you that might just tell you everything, What do you base your opinion that my rating for native trail is well off on?
- MCLARKE and The Equaliser
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9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
All very interesting info on this race from various quarters; I am just wondering why Native Trail doesn't figure in your top four ratings and where it is? Timeform and RPR have it top rated and @richard-westwood has it in 2nd place. I haven't decided whether to risk even one point on this race yet
Native Trail comes in at 219, Strange you are looking at this and @richard-westwoodfigures and cant see a bet? he has lusail, i have lusail, and its 50/1 ermm if you cant see an ew bet there i doubt you will ever see one, you back 2/1 ish losers all year but you wont risk a 50/1 (10/1 place) loser? With respect and being light hearted my friend i think your head needs a bit of a reset. richard and i have 3 of the same from 4 from actual ratings it doesnt matter if they all come last because at least you see 2 reasons to have a bet. or alternatively just get your darts out and fire away. Ok people will argue all day that obrien and appleby have all the aces thats 4 bets all at short ish odds and a good way of reaching the poor house. on all evidence Obrien horses are regulaly talked up and end up getting beat by a second or third string, Appleby is more reliable on that front but even he with a huge strike rate had a 1/4 loser yesterday. This Guineas looks really tough on paper so the price of the horse you back in it should reflect that. its all about value and for me there is no value in the 1st 3 in the betting. For info purposes my figures also include the figures for stopwatch in the rp so in effect you have 3 sets of ratings all with similar indicaters.
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Sporting fun small ew mugs double Berkshire shadow (A Balding) 80/1 and Berkshire Royal (ex Balding now Mullins) 20/1 gotta be worth a few sheckles, Cheesy grin if both them babies win says the punters poet. ?
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21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
2000 guineas final ratings
Luxembourg 9.2 7.6
Native trail 9.0
Corebus 8.6 7.2
Perfect power 8.4
Lusail 8.0
Very very competitive 2000 guineas ....Native trail sets the standard but on breeding Luxembourg and corebus look the 2 to maybe take him on ...decent value prices on betfair 7.2 and 7.6 so to me that's value to take him on
10pt win corebus and Luxembourg
interesting you have luxembourg, lusail, perfect power match my speed figures, whre does berkshire shadow fit in with you? also lusail and perfect power have distance issues if you believe the "pundits"
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7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
235 super citizen
310 agusta gold
350 burning victory
425 ten ten
500 fil dor
530 the very man
605 path d'oroux
635 amir kabir
the very man nr so berkshire royal
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Speed figures 2000 Guineas
1 Perfect Power 227 14/1
2 Lusail 222 50/1
2 Berkshire Shadow 222 80/1
4 Luxembourg 221 11/2
On the face of it this seems to be the open most Guineas I have ever rated if you strip away all the hype.
It will depend on not who will stay the best but who is capable of staying the mile on the day.
Don't be surprised if point lonsdale finishes in front of luxembourg.
I am hoping for a serious F/C T/C . I really believe that there is a good posibility of a shocker of a result this year.
For the small punter ew backers that 80/1 for Berkshire Royal is well worth a little tickle. (prices bet365 at time of posting)
- calva decoy, kroni, The Brigadier and 3 others
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340 nm Berkshire Shadow 80/1 bet365
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340 jigginstown king
415 rightplacerighttime
450 rapid response
525 adagio
600 highland charge
635 poli roi
710 watch house cross
745 great name that
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SPEED
150 newm that Subastar was bloody quick last race
225 newm Eldrick Jones is massively over priced at 18/1
Big Boys Fun Lucky 15
The 2 above with
240 Good Atlantas boy (needs a really fast pace over this trip but the 11/1 price is right)
315 Good Save a Forest 9/2 is fair (sneaky boys got 2 in it though)
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225 newm eldrick jones 18/1 bet365
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1250 long quello
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10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
RESULTS UPDATE
A bit of a pity that Across the Nile weakened and lost. The RP Spotlight man was right about the trip being wrong for it today. The double returned £12.19 so a net profit of £8.19. MTD = -63.95 and YTD = - 219.76
I was unlucky not to collect on the 3.40 at Punch. The favourite looked nailed on to get at least second on the run-in but Rock Road got the better of it. I had some other returns on forecasts and tricasts that I did for fun but did not recover total stakes.
I believe that the Forecasts and Tricasts returns are based on betting odds taken at the time. I also believe that Trifectas are based upon the pooled fund at the track. I am not sure which is best. I suppose it depends on how much money is put in the pool at the track and punters not at the track have to go with betting odds on bet365.
In relation to bet365 Forecasts and Tricasts I am just wondering what the break even combined odds are required for a forecast and the combined odds for a tricast are? Perhaps @richard-westwoodor @Zilzaliancan tell me?
well i would assume as long as no odds on, there would be no break even shots only wins because even, fav 2nd fav 3rd fav would produce a profit same for f/c. with respect, if your going to play that safe it/they are not the bets for you. trust me you will never win long term with short odds, with fc and tc's. On a separate note i am curious. how many losing days have you had compared to winning days? i would seriously consider scrapping everything i am doing and rethink everything if it is 75% or over which i suspect it is. you really need to break the cycle. Friendly advice. why not try combining 3 on here and try them in a trixie or because of the bigger price of richard a patent without the cover bets, they get plenty of winners and you know who they are if you include one of @richard-westwooddecent prices and say @MCLARKEselection and one of any other, i suspect you will pick up the odd good payout steering clear of odds on shots. its got to be worth a 6 month trial at less than 10 points per day. or even a patent plus the 3 win bets for a cost of 10 points.
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340 only sky
415 exit poll
450 neverushacon
525 ashdale bob
600 silver sheen
635 coeur sublime
710 minito park aa
745 sir jimmy mac
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3 hours ago, roger2256 said:
If you are able bodied and have all your facilities then you should not need them , do it yourself, I did and gave her dignity right though to holding her hand when she took her last breath so less of the crap and do your duty . If you dare dispute me I'll put a picture up of minutes after death .
Your words are a bit harsh Roger we all have different circumstances and i applaud you for what you did. My wife, a bonny girl, had a tripple heart bypass and an infection thereafter, i have quite severe copd and although i managed with help from the kids and friends it was both mentally and physically exhausting.
- vikki37, Nigwilliam, The Equaliser and 1 other
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I think record keeping is essential.
If you haven't made a profit over a 12 month period then I would reduce my stakes to a minimum.
Otherwise increase your stakes gradually as your bank increases.
Be realistic, you are unlikely to make a life changing profit from betting but any profit is always a good feeling.
You are indeed correct in my opinion about if you haven't made a profit in 12 months then surely something is wrong so you must reduce your stakes and more. I also agree that it really is essential that you keep records. This is not contary to what i said but maybe i should have included a timeframe that can be as low as 3 or 6 months if you bet daily but definitely give up what you are doing and try something different if it stretches to a year. last year i made a slight loss so went over the years records and identified "wasted" bets which usually happenned after a decent win and i got a bit giddy for want of a better word.
- The Equaliser and MCLARKE
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14 minutes ago, Bang on said:
Too true, a month or so back I hit a sticky patch and ended up reducing my stake.... hit a couple of winners and thought WTF am I doing. Either hit it hard and be aggressive or take a break. Decided to be aggressive and I'm back on track.
If you can't place your normal stake (whatever that is) .. is it really a bet ?
There are many with counter arguments (with the exception of the double your bank double your stake, half your bank half your stakes which is a sound system) I personally i think you are in the wrong game if you can't take a loss or losses for the very reasons you state. If you have an edge and if it is slieght edge then reducing your stake removes that edge and gives it to sod's law. Also again from a personal point of view, if you have to cover bets you make your on a hiding to nothing and will lose even short term. the simple way is to identify your bank and expect or be prepared to lose it, that may sound counter intuitive but as long as your not pin sticking apart from pulling your hair out now and again long term you will enjoy the successes that you have far more than cry about your loses. The main thing about betting and in particular in my case on horse racing i have a simple answer to my critics and that is this, It is my hobby, hobbies cost money but in my case i can occasionally make money which i can't do spending my money on nights out or fancy dinners or nights on the lash. the moral is as they always say, dont bet what you cant afford or are prepared to lose. Yes i agree that taking a break is far better than reducing yourstakes because once you reduce your stakes you are in effect admitting defeat as opposed to reassessing why you are losing which you can do far better by taking that break.
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340 punch brazos 66/1 betfred
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340 brazos
415 camino rock
445 classic getaway
520 minella crooner
555 galvin
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705 discordantly
745 jetara
Racing Chat - Saturday 30th April
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
I think innatendue is a great price i had it in my tracker when it used to be trained in france.