.JPG.3e06facabecac9ede70dfac9822322c9.JPG)
Zilzalian
-
Posts
4,258 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
44
Posts posted by Zilzalian
-
-
3 hours ago, calva decoy said:
AKHU NAJLA :
2.7 Million Guinea Kingman Colt who on sole run as a 2 year old at Leicester over 7f finished 2nd beaten a neck .
Had maiden run as a 3 year old today at Yarmouth over 8f & romped home by an impressive 6.5L .
Has loads of fancy entries , in my tracker for next 3 .
Speed figure is nothing to write home about so tempers enthusiasm a little but yes it did look impressive in what only can be described as a moderate race. might be special but a tad of caution needs factoring in.
-
SHOCKING....talking of forecasts the 415 punchestown just shows how much the bookies have murdered them over the years, back in the day it was normal to add one point to the 2nd's sp and times them. look at that result 20/1 1st 100/1 2nd and it paid 382/1 under the old system it would have been over 2000 quid people these days who get that up would be delighted with the 382 not knowing that they have had their pants pulled down big style. nowadays given all the excuses the bookies have come up with to cut fc and tc's the minimum should surely be a bag of sand for going against a well odds on fav. @richard-westwood
- black rabbit and kensland
-
2
-
4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
Kicking myself now ....I shoulda done 1/4pt tricasts too ...only 6pts ...gonna factor it in in future on the big races just in case .. ...gives you a shot at huge payout for a few points
heres what i do. lets assume 10p stakes for tricast, 24 (4 selections) bets = £2.40 then do either abc correct order for 60p. or alternatively correct order abc and bca for 30p total cost 3quid you might get double lucky. it wouldn't have worked yesterday for the straights but you would still have had over 330 quid and change for the 10p always tc. More commonly i play with 3 selections 6x 50p fc and 6x 50p tricasts total six quid. had some whoppers over the years. Check back on ur bets to see how many/much you would have/could have won to see if it is viable for your ratings. like you said you dont need many at good prices to make good money.
-
39 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Just thinking aloud, why is it 12 bets for 4 selections in forecasts and how many bets would it be for a permutation for Trifecta bets?
24 tricasts in 4 selections. 12 in fc in 4 selections ie ab,ba bc,cb cd,dc da,ad db,bd, ac,ca. the tricast would have returned £333.00 to a 10p unit stake=£2.40 which would have wiped out your losses this year and change left over for fish chips and peas and your bus fare home..........
-
340 punch mighty meggsie 40/1 bet365
-
340 Mighty Meggsie
415-
450 Still Standing
525 Envoi Allen
600-
635 Lifetime Ambition
710-
745 Summer Gayle
-
17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
515 naas
Additional 7.8 11/1
Blairmayne 7.6 22/1
Norwich passage 7.3 9/1
Big goosey
4x 1pt wins 12x forecasts
16 hours ago, richard-westwood said:265 .38 for forecast and 23 pts back from win ....returns 288 pts .....get in you beauts ....
Just one snag ...the tricast paid ...3334 ....ffs ???
I did tell you....................now you will be addicted ?
- yossa6133 and richard-westwood
-
1
-
1
-
515 naas trueba 18/1 bet365
-
7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
That works ....but its low and slow .....you tend to make a few points here and there which is fine but one of the things that has driven me is the thrill of the big win ....I've had numerous 300 -500 pt wins plus probably 2 over a 1000 and those days are really special and it motivates me to rate the best I possibly can ....its not if there will be another big win this way its when .......I'm really really happy with the ratings now and I set rules ..formula is set in stone so its just rate and see what happens .....hadn't realised the race earlier was so close ...just 1 length covering the first 5 home ...so it actually wasn't that bad ?
But your thinking is true ...there are 1 or 2 people who still back the top 4 and do really well especially ew
big prices? Whack the fc and tricast on that will get you addicted. ? I do speed figures and have always said no point in rating a race if you only go the winner. if i am accurate and the prices are big why not use all that time and effort you put in to max effect.....you dont need many to fatten the wallet.
- The Equaliser and Nigwilliam
-
2
-
6 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:
Well stuffed backed into 3/1
Often happens with these old horses when the race is perceived as weak as this one was with a dodgy fav. i quite like these races because they often produce a decent forecast if you leave the first 3 in the betting out of it. as it was i missed out by a nose in this one, needed the 3rd (28/1) 1st or second it would have paid over 150/1
-
455 bath bella caelia 16/1 bet365
-
332 sanf potterman 14/1 bet365
-
150 sand La Pugla 28/1 betvictor
-
305 beverley chelsea annie 14/1 PP
-
10 hours ago, calva decoy said:
I look for soft / heavy sired bred horses as start / end of a flat season as a lot of Northern French courses ride soft / heavy & albeit few & far between any Sadler Maker / Pivotal / Jeremy breds do well .
I also look out for UK or Irish trainers sending horses over especially if only 1 on a card & agree with you on rating that CATTURA should do best of the 3 today but GUILDED has scope to handle conditions better .
I like most racing including French albeit my wallet doesn't do well & maybe only 2/3 bets a month on French racing & I'm only a small £ punter .
Bit of a turnup there Calva but on the plus side the Fabre horse Sober won returned me 10/1 on bet365
-
Off topic a litttle here but does anyone else think that 16/1 on the 4-0 liverpool v Man utd was stingy?
-
615 chantilly Sober 8/1 bet365
-
2 hours ago, calva decoy said:
327 Chantilly ( Group 3 )
Sees 3 UK raiders trying to bag the prize money on soft going .
110 rated CATURRA last seen out finishing 5th in the Middle Park , Cox & Kirby team up .
K.Burke sends 2 over , ATTAGIRL who finished on last run 6th in the FLYING CHILDERS behind Caturra & GUILDED 7/2 rated 100 & was 4th in Longchamp Listed when last seen out , will love the soft & Burke has Demuro booked .
600 Lingfield - THE DEFIANT 6/4 .
You seem to like French racing. First thing i check out in racing is the French races, there are some cracking bets to be had like the Menusier double last week, Shiergan is worth a good look when he sends one, Fabre tends to be all too short prices but often gets 2/2 or 3/3. I dont know about you but i seem to be able to do better percentage wise on the french than the English stuff. wouldn't argue against your choices today. so will add in that i think the 2 fabre horses are at the right price. the race you mentioned 3:27 joesjosephine (50/1 had good time figures early last season) is going to cost me money again today, that bugger wont win until i stop backing it.
My speed figures have it.
Cattura 221, Attagirl 199, Guilded 179
- azzybear, kensland and calva decoy
-
3
-
3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
An uninspiring day for my new style Trixie bet, with only one race properly qualifying.
Instead, I will have a traditional Trixie for 2 points and some singles to back it up
1.40 Sed Armattikan 10/3 + 2 pt win bet at 4.6 (PL Nap). I think that this will beat Hughe's mount.
7.05 Wolv Spirited Guest 6/1 +1 pt win bet at 7.8
7.50 Worc Wetanwindy 9/1 + 0.5 pts win at 10/1
1 x 2 pt win Trixie = poss return of 223.48
Total stakes 5.5 points
I'm still not betting on the flat until 1.5.22 so all a bit restrictive atm
Why not bet on the flat? Jumps is worse this time of year most of them are cream crackered. just think if you had had trixies on Buick or Appleby you would have got a few up by now. plenty of trainers are having multiple winners why not pick a trainer/s that has 3 or 4 runners (not massive stables like gosden, Johnson Fahey) ie Menusier, Fanshawe, Charlton, Morrison. to follow? try anything as long as it isn't what your doing now and i do respect what you have said in past etc but it just isn't working is it? Personally i think you need to get away from these short price horses because once you start losing your bank it is so hard to get back in front at least with a trixie at 4/1+ you have a good chance of wiping out your loses in one bet.
- Budgie 65, The Equaliser and MCLARKE
-
2
-
1
-
510 Yarmouth Value bet Fabiosa highly tried last year and got peices of form at levels the others don't have, at 20/1 is a bet.
- yossa6133, black rabbit and Nigwilliam
-
3
-
510 yarm Fabiosa 20/1 bet365
-
My ocd doesn't like the word "tuesday" missing from this thread, ??
- roger2256, Nigwilliam, black rabbit and 3 others
-
5
-
1
-
POTAPOVA a typical Micheal Stout horse to improve and can win good races this season.
-
I notice a lot have gone for My Astra the Haggis horse and i can understand why. This is the most intriguing race today for me. Last year i had just 2 horses to follow One was the Fabre trained Midtown the other was Potapova neither delivered. Potapova won FTO at 1/5 so was no bet for me. it then had various excuses in good races therafter but looks to me like a typical M Stout improver he will have ironed out last seasons problems and i expect this horse to reach the top level conditional on whether it can do on turf what we know it can do on the AW. My Astra is no value at that silly price today but Potapova at around 5/2 is fine. so im am adding it to my "NOTEBOOK Horses thread"
Well i was correct in my assumption of the price of the fav, Potapova i think will come on for that and ran fine, Looked like jockey tried to beat the wrong horse and took his eye off the race in my opinion. but we shall see.
- The Equaliser and Budgie 65
-
2
NOTEBOOK HORSES 2022
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Its a good policy for small stakes bets but in group races i tend to do big bets so have to take speed into account i dont do variables i just use pure figures never adjusted it seems to work better, not sure why to be honest but it does, if a horse runs and wins 5 times leading up to a group race but has never produced a decent speed figure then it is a big negative for me. One great example was Tenby in the derby a good few years ago 1990 i think trained by Cecil 4/5fav and was beaten 23 lengths that derby was won by cecils commander in chief his second string.