Villa Chris
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Posts posted by Villa Chris
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23 minutes ago, Doug Jee said:
I went to put a small ante post wager on a horse for Saturday’s Caspian Caviar Gold cup today (Wednesday), and to double up with one in the Ascot Betfair hurdle in 2 weeks.
Low and behold the manager (who works for the ‘C’ bookies), said there is no betting on this race in the shop, I had to laugh and started remonstrating with him to say ‘you are joking’. He proceeded to phone the boys at HQ, who came back with ‘prices only online’.
Because the shops have been shut for a while I wanted to spend cash rather than use my 365 account. The horse was 4 points lower on my account and the other local bookie (it has a mans name in it).
These bookies have really got to start bend over backwards a bit more to get trade into their shops, instead of pumping gambling machines into them. They also need to remember their roots and where it all started from, horse racing! Not everyone has a bookie account (I do) but just wanted better value price on my horse elsewhere. Ante post betting is almost a waste of time now, they wait till the Thursday declarations and the prices reduce dramatically.
I had to go back to my own bookie account in the end out of principal, I shall not step foot in Mr ‘C’s’ shop again.Regards Doug
I’d like to use a bookies more, but it’s so more convenient just doing it online. Unfortunately it’s all about the gambling machines now and I think that’s where the high street shops make their money. Fortunately I haven’t a clue how you play them but I’ve seen people put their monthly wages into them after work. Also know people who have won big on them, but it doesn’t appeal to me. Ante post betting has completely gone down the pan. The odds are crap.
- Tedthewolf and Zico10
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1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:
Yeah they've been pretty accurate of late ....its nice to see ....I like the winners of course but i like it better when the ratings are very accurate especially in the big races ....it helps people make an informed choice whatever they decide and if it helps make someone a few quid like they have done many times then i cant ask for more ...so I'll keep putting them out there and trying to make as accurate as possible ....this is the way ??
You’re doing well lately and I’ve always found your ratings very good anyway. You had top 3 correct in the one race but in a different order. Do you try to improve your ratings, Or are you can completely happy with how they are? Also how long has it taken you to get where you are now with your ratings?
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4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
1215 ling
Delicate kiss 255
Buckingham 253
Corazon espinado 250
Top 2 here have bern posting good times over 1mile ...corazon looks well treated currently but I think needs 7f rather than 8 ...just doesnt seem to last home
Delicate kiss 4pt win 11/2 bet365
Buckingham 4pt win 9/2 sky
115 ling
Dancing feet 250
Queens course 245
Stay classy 243
Dancing feet is surely capable if winning a race like this and top rated today so looks time to play
Dancing feet 4pts win 9/4 bet365
Pretty spot on with the ratings, rich.
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52 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:
Hold your best Chris as he's entered for the re-opened Peterborough Chase on Friday
I’d wait until Friday anyway before placing my bets, but cheers for heads up. Noticed Master Tommytucker is entered, too.
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31 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:
Master Tommytucker absolutely clouted one at Newton Abbott and probably just needed the run, so I'm not taking that form too literally. Not sure Cheltenham is his track though.
He’s lightly raced , but in the last 18 renewals it’s gone to horses younger than 9. You make a very good point about Cheltenham and it would be my main concern because I wouldn’t fancy backing him at that course. One thing we’ll find out with him is if his jumping has been sorted out which it looks like it has, but this race will certainly put it to the test. I have a feeling he’ll get found out on Saturday , although he’s becoming a talented chaser.
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Really fancy Al Dancer in this. Might even nap him on the day in the naps thread .
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5 hours ago, alancraik said:
todays selections
MUSSELBURGH 12:15 Newtown Boy 7/1 e/w 4 Places
MUSSELBURGH 14:15 Taxmeifyoucan 17/2 e/w 3 Places
MUSSELBURGH 14:45 Racing Pulse 5/1 e/w 3 Places
plus e/w trixieNice start to the week, Alan .
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59 minutes ago, harrisman said:
PS. Some very interesting points above indeed. I guess one of the problems with horse racing is the astonishing amount of statistics easily available today. Almost an information overload. Although obviously some things have more significance depending on the event maybe?
There’s definitely overload which can be a negative imo, although I totally understand how some people can take it all in.
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2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
I've been betting for 20 years and the one thing I never really paid much attention to was the paddock ......then I took my young daughter to wolv and she was watching this chestnut horse ...stars stenciled into rear ....ears pricked ....jogging on spot ....just looked fab ....and she said after watching all of them ....I want the star horse ....long story short it won 500 quid at 100/1 ....since then if I go to the racing I always rate the horses in parade and put score next to them on card .. has got me countless winners...I've list count how many ...
Good point and I’ve noticed before on itv racing where they quite often mention the appearance in the paddock and usually select best turned out horse in the race. If you’ve got a horse that seems like he’s carrying a bit too much weight or doesn’t quite look his usual self then chances are he won’t be fit enough to win and may need the race to condition himself.
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Good read. There’s 2-3 points that I usually do anyway, or at least take on board sometimes, but there’s some that I definitely need to up my game on . Don’t think I’ve ever checked the weather as much since I’ve properly got into racing ? Also being able to understand handicap marks is crucial and will save you from losing a few quid the quicker you get the hang of that. Punters are very lucky in this day and age with all the information and past runs that are available with a click of a button. I look forward to your write up on doing your own betting odds.
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6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Yep, Might Bite was MIGHTY disappointing, don't know why anybody backs Henderson's horses !
Surely it’s retirement now .Don’t know where else they can go with him. Fantastic horse on his day and full of character, but I didn’t trust him today over those fences at all. I’m just glad he’s came out of the race safe and well.
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On 12/4/2020 at 12:19 PM, Villa Chris said:
Vieux Lion Rouge 23.7
Walk The Mill 23.6
Give Me Copper 18.2
Coo Star Sivola 18
Minellacelebration 18
Top two will be my selections
86 points profit on the day. I started drinking quite early yesterday so didn’t end up sorting any more bets out for today. Probably a blessing is disguise.
- MCLARKE and richard-westwood
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I rated the Grand Sefton chase up with Might Bite as top rated. I didn’t like the bet so left it alone. Had Modus and Sir Jack Yeats as 2nd and 3rd best. Glad to see they finished second and third.
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2 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:
All prices Bet365:
12.00 Sedgefield - 1pt e/w Bollin Neil @ 10/1
Lowly on the flat but stays, should handle conditions no problem and ought to make a jumper (plenty of relatives have) so in a winnable race I thought he had sound place claims at the very least.
12.35 Sedgefield - 1pt e/w Whiteoak Fleur @ 8/1
The favourite needs to progress again now climbing the weights quite quickly and I thought Whiteoak Fleur had a good chance here. Shaped well over 2m6f on seasonal reappearance when only fading late on and should strip fitter now with the drop back in trip a good move. Best form has come on decent enough ground so some of her runs last year weren't ideal and looks fairly handicapped.
12.45 Sandown - 1pt e/w Call Me Vic @ 14/1
Market drift is a concern as he ran a cracker on seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham, travelling well before clouting 2 out. Was still only beaten 9 lengths and should come on for that with a breather in between that and this run helping recovery.
12.55 Exeter - 1pt e/w Funky Sensation @ 16/1
Bred to be useful and won a point in good fashion when last seen. That was a long time ago now but Tom Symonds is going well and can ready them so still think this one is of plenty of interest at a healthy price.
1.50 Sandown - 2pts win Alnadam @ 6/1
Ran well in hurdles races last year and ran a cracker on chasing debut at Carlisle when last seen. Was only narrowly denied by a thriving type who has bolted up again since and the pair were clear. Should come on for that too and I think he has a huge chance today.
3.00 Sandown - 1pt e/w Farrants Way @ 8/1
Very unexposed and lightly raced but got the job done in good style when last seen over the extended 3 miles at Hereford. Stamina is his forte clearly and looks plenty more to come off a fair mark. Has an absence to overcome but I'm not too concerned about that, conditions will suit and he's related to some high quality types so keen on him today.
Jesus wept , you’re on form today.
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Vieux Lion Rouge 23.7
Walk The Mill 23.6
Give Me Copper 18.2
Coo Star Sivola 18
Minellacelebration 18
Top two will be my selections
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15 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Surely the primary object of the exercise in backing horses is to make money and that is my point i make money by napping value, the old adage that horses don't know what price they are rings true. like i said above i have made about £1,000 quid just on my naps to a tenner, how many short price "nappers" on here can boast the same? You say and i quote "if its your thing" my thing is to make money out of the fun of watching and studying horse races. i respect what you are saying about you dont look at racing every day so why not just look at 1 race a day and pop one in the comp ad hoc takes only seconds and at least it gives you a shout.
I enjoy horse racing full stop, although losing runs can get you down, but yes money is the main objective, even if you only win a few quid. I’ve probably came across the wrong way, and to be honest I’m not fussed whether the rules change or not, but I wish you luck with your approach . To narrow my selections down I only bet on class 2 and no higher than Grade 2. Basically that’s what I’ve done this week, I’ll scan cards and pick a race out and put the selection as nap in the nap thread, although I probably won’t see the month out as I’ll miss a few days then think sod it.
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26 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Quite interesting thread, Long shots v short odds nap, A separate yearly total prize is a good idea, personally i would increase the minimum selection requirement to 20 or 25 from the current 15. it would stop people from winning by not napping. the suggestion that people napping long shots "for luck" is valid in some cases but the proof is in the pudding, 10 quid on every one of my naps since i joined (4 months) would have netted you about £1000 i have been in profit for each of the last 4 months and if it wasn't for my 50/1 dead heating for 4th place on the last day of september i would have topped the table 2 out of the four months i have been on here, can anyone napping short prices say the same? @Villa Chris @The Equaliser i occasionally do nap a short one but only where i think its my only option. i detected a bit of snobbery on some of the comments, i put more work into my racing and selecting than people would have others believe. One thing everybody should know but some don't like to admit, is you cant make a profit backing favs that's for sure.
If napping your selections at big prices is your thing then fair play to you. If you put the work and effort into finding big priced selections that you think are overpriced or can out run their odds, then that cannot be knocked. I’m as against short odd naps as I am big priced naps. If someone is napping ridiculously short odds all the time then where is the work in that, and where’s the value . 4/5 is as low as I’d go with a nap. Saying that a nap is meant to be the most likely winner of the day isn’t it? Personally I don’t like doing naps because I don’t look at all the races so how would I know which is the most likely winner of the day. I suppose nap can mean different things to different people. When I do my selections I always have one horse in my head who I think is my best chance of winning some money that day, so that’s my own personal nap. I’ve entered this months nap competition, but I doubt I’ll see it through because I just don’t look at racing everyday.
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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:
See ....I knew he was good but didn't realise he was that good ....at least you know hes very likely to get round and that's a big thing at aintree on any day
Yep, if you’ve got a horse that stays and jumps you’ve always got a chance at Aintree. The Grand National is beyond him now but he’s always big odds for it and I usually bang a small ew on him because I know he’ll get round and may place on a good day.
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7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
My Nicky Henderson runner tomorrow is in the 12.55 novice hurdle at Exeter.
BARON NELSON available at 9/1.
Talking of Henderson horses, I took a fancy to Janika. He came over from France as a 5/6 year old and went straight into some very competitive handicaps carrying top weight. Was only narrowly beaten by horses better handicapped carrying much less. His RPRs were very good. I’m sure we all have horses we are very fond of, and he’s one I’m certainly fond of. I honestly thought he’d eventually go up in distance and become a gold cup contender, but although he’s continued to run well the yard don’t know what to do with him and what direction to send him. Sent him over hurdles and that didn’t work. Meant to be running at Aintree on Saturday but he’s not been declared now. I’d like to see him over further but obviously Henderson thinks not.
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Can see it being heavy going by the time racing starts tomorrow. Vieux Lion Rouge should enjoy that. Remarkable horse who’s jumped 202/202 grand National fences.
- MCLARKE, The Brigadier and justice
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1.50 Sandown
Funambule Sivola 5/2 bet365
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Sounds complicated. Do you have to type everything into the computer in order for it to save all the data. I’ll use Richard as an example here, but how does he get his ratings from the computer. I have to go through each race and want to rate and it takes me half hour. I can imagine the computer does it in seconds .
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Funambule Sivola makes a lot of appeal. The Pertemps qualifier, isn’t that the race that the top rated horses don’t like to win? If so think I’ll give that a miss .
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What’s the craic with Excel etc . How does it work regarding horse racing .
Racing Chat-Wednesday December 9
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Great stuff. Thanks for the insight into your ratings and how you eventually got there.