Villa Chris
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Posts posted by Villa Chris
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30 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
That's very strong form third wind ....should be spot on now so will disappointing if he doesnt place at least
Let’s hope so mate
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2 hours ago, The Brigadier said:
Replayed on RacingTV at 7.15 this evening - watch out for last years 4th in the Ladbroke Handicap Chase Beware The Bear working all over the 14lb officially superior Santini ?
Beware The Bear had an entry at Cheltenham at the weekend but never ran. I had him top rated when I went through the cards a few days before. Entered for The Ladbrokes Trophy. Not seen any of the gallops but read mixed reviews on Altior. Henderson seemed pleased enough with him though.
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Third Wind ran well in the Pertemps at the festival. The three that finished in front of him all have been in strong form since either over fences or hurdles. Ran well enough in a decent class two the other week first run back after break and he seems to need that first run. I’ll be playing both Kalashnikov and Third Wind. Looks like it will be Soft/Heavy. Form on that ground reads 11114, with the 4 coming at Cheltenham festival.
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5 hours ago, Alley Cat Glover said:
I know it’s a bit early but do any of you start thinking about Cheltenham yet? Any ante post bets going in?
Chris, been looking at a couple, see post above on this page, my problem is, it is a real lottery, If you can pick a horse, then got to find the right race, unless you can be sure, like with a more established horse. Unless you have an in not sure you get to know before connections announce, then surprisingly the price has gone, after that can still be 2 months before Cheltenham, still have training problems and conditions to worry about.
In owners group and one thing don’t seem to get is any targets or path way for the horses really given to you understandable with everything that could go wrong.
Not got a lot of experience in this mind, still not seen much in the way of Novices to really be released yet, especially from Ireland. Guess you need a horse rated 148+ to even have a chance?
I’m not one for ante post bets for the reasons you’ve mentioned. By time NRNB comes out value has gone. For a lot of people Cheltenham is the pinnacle of horse racing. From November I start thinking about it, making notes of horses and like to read other forums to see what other people are saying. Try and keep an eye on the racing in Ireland for obvious reasons. The novices are out a bit late this season. Still none the wiser with the supreme. Must admit once the festival is over Win/lose I’m glad to see the back of it.
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Amy Murphy has said Kalashnikov will run as long as the ground isn’t too testing. If he could get anywhere near his hurdle form he will be a player at 14/1. Has distance to prove like a few others do. Also Third wind 10/1
- vikki37 and The Brigadier
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What was Ed Chamberlain on about on Sunday, saying it’s doubtful we will see Defi Du Seuil again just because he pulled up. Bizarre comment and also the horse is only 7. Infact I’d say it’s a good time to back Defi ante post for Cheltenham as his price has drifted. Hobbs horses don’t seem fully at it at the moment and it was the horses first run back on testing ground. Just don’t get the silly comment that we probably won’t see him again . I know it’s a bit early but do any of you start thinking about Cheltenham yet? Any ante post bets going in? Must say I’m not one for ante post betting but understand why a lot are. You get some cracking prices. one who I fancy is Abacadabras in the champion hurdle. It will be well run which will suit aba and once Epatante puts her foot down to leave the pack , this will give Aba something to aim at. The horse is no good when it hits the front too soon, but managed to hold on for victory over in Ireland at the weekend, although was a tad fortunate with jockey error on Saint Roi.
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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Yes Chris, she has also said that she trains most of her horses on soft/heavy ground and that is why she has more winners when the mud is flying.
It all adds up then, why her horses run well on soft/heavy. Also read the other week that European horses running in the Melbourne cup should have to go over there earlier to get used to the surface and train on the surface so their bones are can get used to it. It’s not the rules yet, but they are looking into it. They are hoping it will lower the death rate in that particular race.
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I remember her saying she doesn’t run her horses during the summer as it’s not safe jumping ground. That may account for why her horses seem to run well in softer conditions as she won’t run them on good ground.
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8 minutes ago, ipswich45 said:
all credit to Jack Tudor for taking the hurdle as he said to Robert Cooper the bypass markers were not in the hurdle but was 50/50 about actually taking the hurdle
It’s like driving a car. You only get a split second sometimes to make a decision and he made the right one although he’s admitted he weren’t sure what he was doing.
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Basically jockeys and people involved in racing are only human. The fact that it’s come over three days creates more controversy than it would if they were separated incidents with length time gaps between them. First case is just purely human error. He’s won the race and just forgot to weigh in. It will no doubt happen again. The second incident they are looking into re arranging race times so I’ve just read. In this day and age you’d think better technology was available for incidents like this where there is bad light. As for the third incident sounds to me like confusion which can easily happen. One jockey/horse makes a wrong turn and it can set off a domino effect . Not seen the race myself but I remember Sandown last year and I totally understand the jockeys confusion in that race. Can’t remember the horse now but it just dropped dead before one of the fences.
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3 minutes ago, ipswich45 said:
Fallen horse was stood up and being held by the jockey by the running rail when the runners went by so looks good news thankfully
That’s good news then. Bet you won’t have another winner like that ?
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Just now, ipswich45 said:
Dharma Rain been given it all others disqualified
Did the fallen horse get back up or bad news?
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Probably best voiding it. Sounds like Dharma Rain had no chance of winning so it would not be right to award the race to the horse. In same breath the winner missed an hurdle so unfair to award race to that horse. Probably Another case of misunderstanding, so void it.
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22 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Cheltenham 1.50, Yala Enki 13/2 2nd, money back if 2nd or 3rd
Cheltenham 3.00, Ballyandy 10/1 ew 2nd
Exposed , but keeps finding and competing at a high level. Ran well the other week behind Sceau Royal and the form has been franked. Likes it here, and will appreciate the ground. Expect him to go close and might be too battle hardened for a lot of these.
Both selections ran well and certainly got a run for my money. 4 points profit on the day. Better than a kick in the teeth.
- richard-westwood and vikki37
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14 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
Its down to what weighting the cd winner has or has not got over non cd winners
Lets look at some imaginary data from 295 10 horse races (2950 runners no dead heats so 295 winners)
From the 2950 runners we have 550 previous cd winners of which go on to win 65 of these races (11.8% sr)
That leaves 2400 non previous cd winners that win 230 of these races (9.6%)
So to find a weighting for a previous cd winner you divide the races cd winners 65 by races total winners 295 =.22%
then divide total previous cd winner runners 550 by the total runners 2950 = 19%
Finally divide cd winners total 22% by runners total 19% = 1.18 which is your weighting (1 being the mean)
So by being a previous cd winner you are 18% more likely to win than a non cd winner (1.18-1=18%)
so therefore when rating a race and 1 runner is prev cd winner then you multiply your base rating by the cd weighting 1.18
All being equal a weighting of 1 is the mean so >1 positive rating <1 negative rating
So if your base rating was 100 then a prev cd winner would have an improved rating of 100*1.18= 118
Obviously the rating would be the inverse if it was a negative weighting of say 0.84 then it would be 100*.84= 84
this can be done for multiple factors , jocks ,trainers,beaten favs, etc etc once you find the important ones then your rating start to take a shape which can the be used to produce a viable tissue .
hope this helped a bit.
ATB
VT
Looked at something similar to this yesterday. I’m kind of getting my head around it. Thanks for taking the time out to explain .
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The Big Breakaway looks an exciting prospect over fences
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Cheers Alan. You can look at it both ways I suppose, but I’d just find it easier to not include course form. Maybe do so if you’ve got two equal on the ratings and the one has superior course form to the other. I tend to look at trainer/jockey form as that tells you a lot about the fitness and well being of the horses coming out of that yard. My head has been like a computer this morning. Happy enough with where I’m at at the moment, but we all want to try and improve.
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To anyone that does their own ratings. Do you take into account course form? If so I wondered how that works out. For example you have an 8 horse race. 3 of them have ran at the course before. The other 5 haven’t. Out of the ones that have only two of them have ran at the course more than once. Doesn’t this scenario leave blind spots, especially if your top rated hasn’t run at course before and second rated has .
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He was well backed in the end. After one or two on here mentioned him I looked at him and there were definitely some positives to take, but for me he was too inexperienced over fences and I just didn’t think he’d be good enough to win. Obviously liked it at Cheltenham because his highest RPR over hurdles was at Cheltenham and he also recorded its highest RPR over fences the other week at the course. The horse improved again to win this. Weight obviously helped and front running tactics, too. With Siruh Du Lac unseating rider at first he had no challengers for the lead . Nice win for anyone that was on him. It is a strong trends race, apparently one of the strongest trend races going. I didn’t base any of my picks on trends, mind.
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Brave Eagle non runner. I had Yala Enki next best so will replace with him
Cheltenham 1.50 , Yala Enki 13/2
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Cheltenham 1.50, Yala Enki 13/2 2nd, money back if 2nd or 3rd
Cheltenham 3.00, Ballyandy 10/1 ew 2nd
Exposed , but keeps finding and competing at a high level. Ran well the other week behind Sceau Royal and the form has been franked. Likes it here, and will appreciate the ground. Expect him to go close and might be too battle hardened for a lot of these.
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On 11/13/2020 at 2:37 PM, Villa Chris said:
2.15 Cheltenham, Simply The Betts 9/2
2.15 Cheltenham, Siruh Du Lac 12/1 ew
2.50 Cheltenham, On The Blind Side 5/1
3.25 Cheltenham, Kepagge 6/1
Double 17/1 Cheltenham
Siruh Du Lac has a lot going for him. I expect On The Blind Side to run a big race even though he’s known as a chaser now. Couldn’t ignore him at that price. Kepagge is open to more progress and will appreciate the rain.
Edited post because Tea Clipper non runner. Single bet added with simply the Betts . It’s also effected my ew play with On The Blindside who’s now a straight win bet .
On The Blindside saves the day. 25 points profit on the day
- alancraik, vikki37, Valiant Thor and 1 other
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18 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Some win bet selections based upon media Napster selections who are in profit and have a reasonable strike rate
2.15 Chelt Slate House 75p win at 12/1
2.15 Chelt Cool Cody 75p win at 16/1 (Top RPR, Timeform and ATP)
2.15 Chelt The Russian Doyan 50p win at 20/1
Should be fun to watch for just risking £22.30 Ling Mustang Kodi 50p win at 33/1
2.50 Chelt Weather Front £1 win at 8/1
2.58 Weth Theatre Legend £1.20 win at 15/2
3.40 Lin Judicial £1.25 at 11/2
Total stakes so far = £5.95
Possibly back later with some more losers.
Good luck to all punting today
Keep the faith haha. I’m never confident on a Saturday for some reason. Had a luckless week so far, too.
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Tea Clipper is now a non runner which was always going to be the case with the expected rain. It’s now brought my pick On The Blindside down to 5/1 so won’t be playing ew with that one now.
Racing Chat - Wednesday 18th 2020
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
I’ve always looked at it as Good/Soft. It’s basically in between Good and Soft ground.