Villa Chris
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Posts
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Posts posted by Villa Chris
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10 minutes ago, alancraik said:
a better day
Give Me A Copper was just held off.
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My mum works at Amazon and as an employee on the books, you get so many shares. Not sure what they are like now but during lockdown earlier on in the year they rocketed.
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5 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:
Thats a really good idea imo.
It’s basically a mirror image of the actual shares going up and down but with fake money. It’s very good and gives you a great insight. I’m self employed and have no pension so want to try get myself an extra income for when I’m older. Haven’t got a clue best way to go about it.
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18 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:
What site or app do you use to buy stocks?
There’s actually an app which some scaffolder told me about. You basically play about with stocks/shares with fake money. It enables you to get the hang of it, and can also show you what’s best to invest into. I’ve not tried it out but he said it was fun and helpful .
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Decided to not bother with the ultra competitive races at Cheltenham, but look forward to watching them.
1.15 Cheltenham, Gino Trail 33/1 ew
1.22 Hereford , Still Believing 17/2
2.32 Hereford , Fugitives Drift 15/8
3.15 Doncaster , Give Me A Copper 15/2
- The Brigadier and Wildgarden
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7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Nicky Henderson has 2 runners in the 3.00 at Cheltenham tomorrow. I will go with VERDANA BLUE at 16/1 as this also fits a number of my other strategies.
He has one at Hereford which I like the look of . Fugitives Drift( runs at 2.32)
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9 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:
Totally agree with that and even more so as of late with stocks being so low.
Any chance we can have a stock market thread on Punter Lounge?
That would be good. I’ve been quite fortunate this year regarding finances, so wouldn’t mind looking into investing some savings.
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47 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:
Looked at that one chris backed it in the past loves to run from the front but age and the quirky jumping put me off and has already won a race this year ended up with the one of the Brian Ellison runners Nietzsche but gonna have to have a few shillings on it now because you have put it up i'm sure he will do you proud! Good luck
Think I had him last year when he won after dropping to a dangerous mark. Runs from the front like you said, and ran them ragged the old boy did. 13 now, so not got many more opportunities. Would not surprise me one bit if he wins tomorrow. Only having a small ew on him, mind.
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I’m going to take an EW punt on Gino Trail at 33/1. Tends to Pull up quite a lot nowadays, but was the same in his early years. The horses record when he makes it the whole way round is superb, and this course will hold no fears for him. Pulled up last time which was first run back after a break , so that may have blown a few cobwebs away. Runs off a very good mark and if he manages to stay the whole race will surely go close. It’s all or nothing with him, and I’ll risk it at those odds.
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16 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Generally due to the longshot / favourite bias it is difficult to make long term profits backing big priced selections.
Many of my best bets have been odds on.
In certain situations each way bets make sense, often when there is an odds on favourite. It all depends on the shape of the betting and the number of runners. My most profitable strategy over the last few years has been taking advantage of the extra place races offered by bookmakers. Sadly due to restrictions these opportunities are now few and far between.
Barry Hills is the man in question. I’d find it hard not to go ew on a certain price.
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The money is coming in for Kalashnikov, but I can’t help but feel he’s a few Ibs too high still. I think the horse has had a bit of a tough time off the handicapper over the last year or so, and it would be nice to see him get his nose back in front but hopefully not today ? You watch him hammer it today .
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Cheltenham 1.50, Top Notch 9/2
Cheltenham 2.25 , Court Maid 7/4
Cheltenham 3.35, Unowhatimeanharry 13/2
- Wildgarden and The Brigadier
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Venetia Williams has only had 3 winners at Cheltenham racecourse in the last 5 years. Not sure how many horses she’s had there in that amount of time.
- Wildgarden and The Brigadier
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12 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:
To be honest i like the itv set up and think the panel/experts do a good job.
Chapman asks some probing questions and some tounge and cheek ones i don't mind him at all.
I enjoy the show(morning show) and the actual racing in the afternoon. I like chapman, and enjoy watching him wind up people, especially on those Cheltenham preview nights.
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2 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
Rachel Candelora is one Id actually listen too
He gives a jockey/horseman's view rather than actual tips but does make sense
Any votes for Matt Chapman? He’s good entertainment if nothing else.
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7 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:
YES Jason Weaver
Yep, he’s one of the better ones.
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The start of a couple of days of racing at Cheltenham. I’ve only looked at the one race so far “ The Peterborough Chase”. I have Top Notch clear by a few points, which is no surprise as he’s a real classy horse. I would prefer him to be going right handed though, which I think he’s slightly better at. He’s won going left handed a few times , so it’s not a big concern, and I don’t think he’ll need a career best to win this anyway. It’s also first run back after a lengthy break. He runs off 158 which is a bit below what he’s used to running off over fences. He’s won off 162 and 161 in recent times so I think he’s on a fair mark.
I’ve looked through the card and i think the biggest threat to him will be Ben Doran who looks overpriced at 20/1.
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2 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
1/4 shots have an implied probability of 80% therefore should lose approx 20% of the time
In 1000 bets there will be approx 200 losers not 4
Its the 200 losers that have an Implied probability losing sequence ratio of 4 (4.29) in 1000 bets
I believe that's the same advice advocated by Dave Nevison (Failed Gambler,failed tipster) in one of his books who now sells his wares on Racing TV as some sort of expert mustn't be paying him that much as he looks like a tramp whose just slept in a skip when Ive seen him on tv.
Mind you John McCririck made a decent living out of talking crap and he was a failed bookie as well so couldn't do it as a pundit a poacher or a gamekeeper.
Is there anyone on tv who talks sense? I find most of them less informative than old man joe in the bookies .
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1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said:
I’ve just started trying to do my own. All I can say is that you’ll probably have a few unsuccessful attempts before you hit on to something. I’m not saying I’m on to something now, but I feel I’ve progressed since earlier in the year. Mine are pretty basic but there’s some great advice on here from the people that post on here , although it can be mind boggling.
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Not sure who it was but it was some old boy. He done well out the horses. Anyway he said never be put off by the price no matter how big the odds, never bet odds on, and never go E/W.
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1 hour ago, Trotter said:
I think one thing you have to think about is - Why are you betting ?
I can't really speak for people who are in it to make money ..... that's never been my focus
My enjoyment has always been in solving the puzzle. Assessing form, factors, coming to a conclusion and hopefully being proved right. What I've found is that I get just as much satisfaction from being proved right whether I have 2 quid or 20 quid on. In fact with the various racing competitions on PL I rarely bet on horses at all ....... I get the same buzz from posting a winner with no money on it
I got it right, it feels good, have a little skip around the room !
I do bet on football, very small stakes...... but I suspect if we had an equivalent Nap of the Day on football I might even give that up and just get my buzz from the competition
So .......... I only bet with very small stakes and don't worry about losing
So this would be my advice ........ if you're not in it to make money just play with small stakes and get your enjoyment from 'solving the puzzle'
I’ve cut my football betting right down. Infact I was never that much into it anyway, as I just find it boring. The horses is so much more fun and enjoyable. A lot more to it which makes it more interesting, and horses are pretty honest and more likeable creatures than footballers are. Football used to be a great game but it’s been ruined. I like a win as much as the next person but even getting a run for my money I can come away satisfied. If you feel comfortable losing 20-30 quid a week then that’s fine. I’ve been guilty of spending more than I’d like but I’ve never gone daft . The winning is great but the puzzle is just as much fun, which you point out.
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One thing I’ve never understood with gambling is greed. If I’m up I’m up regardless of how much it is. An old friend of mine won 8k on the online slots a few years back. That wasn’t enough for him though and within two weeks he’d put the whole lot back in because in his head and these are his words, he thought he could get more out of it. I’ve chased losses before, and it’s horrible, but discipline is key to gambling. If I’m £50 up I’m happy as a pig in muck where as the friend in question wouldn’t be satisfied with that and would go after more, where he’d either succeed but more often than not lose his £50.
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The start of a couple of days of racing at Cheltenham. I’ve only looked at the one race so far “ The Peterborough Chase”. I have Top Notch clear by a few points, which is no surprise as he’s a real classy horse. I would prefer him to be going right handed though, which I think he’s slightly better at. He’s won going left handed a few times , so it’s not a big concern, and I don’t think he’ll need a career best to win this anyway. It’s also first run back after a lengthy break. He runs off 158 which is a bit below what he’s used to running off over fences. He’s won off 162 and 161 in recent times so I think he’s on a fair mark.
I’ve looked through the card and i think the biggest threat to him will be Ben Doran who looks overpriced at 20/1.
Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle, Ascot, 19th Dec
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by Villa Chris
Malaya 21.7
Kid Commando 20.6
Master Debonair 20.5
Buzz 20.4
The top 3 rated are good prices, but I’ll just stick with Malaya(14/1). Will hold fire just in case the horse doesn’t make final declarations.