Villa Chris
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Posts posted by Villa Chris
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Uttoxeter 2.28, Impulsive Star 40/1 ew paying 4 places.
Ran a respectable race over hurdles in a decent class 2 last time out. Before that he was chasing and pulled up 4 times on the bounce over gruelling distances. Back over hurdles again today where he’s showed good form in the past . Dropped 4 Ibs from last race and is on a very workable mark. Jockey takes off 3 Ibs which will also help. Had a recent run, so should be fit enough and hopefully he can give a good run and get some place money. Drop back in Distance could also dig out some improvement.
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Proper slog that was . Nice to see the old boy win again.
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On 11/20/2020 at 3:23 PM, The Brigadier said:
Some good National Hunt racing on Saturday and here’s my feelings on the 8 ITV races :-
1.50 HAYDOCK
A competitive handicap hurdle whose form will be worth following over the next couple of months. The novices Shakem Up’Arry and On The Wild Side are interesting making their handicap debuts but I’m keen to stick with Anthony Honeyball’s KID COMMANDO who won well at Ascot three weeks ago and will appreciate stepping up from 2m to the 2m3f trip here being a former 3m Irish point winner. The handicapper shunted him up 7lb for Ascot but to these eyes he still looks well treated.
KID COMMANDO 1 point each way 9/2 unibet
2.05 ASCOT
A disappointing turnout with only 4 going to post for a first prize of north of £25k. Real Steel has joined Paul Nicholl’s from Willie Mullins following his non staying 6th in last season’s Cheltenham Gold cup at 50/1. Nicholls also runs Black Corton who likes this track and will more than likely try and force the pace along. But it’s the improving IMPERIAL AURA that takes my eye. Impressive when not only winning the now defunct Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Festival in March but also at Carlisle 3 weeks ago. That should have put him spot on for this and despite the fact he is officially rated 7lb inferior at these weights to both the Nicholls’ horse I can see him winning this for the very much in form Kim Bailey.
IMPERIAL AURA 2 points win @ 15/8 william hill
2.25 HAYDOCK
As mentioned in my ante-post preview earlier in the week this will a real war of attrition over 3m in the Haydock mud.I’ll stick with my original fancy of MAIN FACT who’s on an incredible nine timer for The David Pipe team stepping up in trip. For me he’s never stronger than at the line in all his wins under both codes. Robbie Power riding Relegate for Colm Murphy is a significant jockey booking and in a wide open contest should run well.
MAIN FACT 1 point each way 15/2 bet365
2.40 ASCOT
Again another disappointing turnout of only three. Both Call Me Lord and Song For Someone have to shoulder 6lb penalties here and that may be too much against LAURINA who can also claim a 7lb mares allowance so effectively receiving a hefty 13lb from the boys. She’s another Jared Sullivan horse to have left Willie Mullins to join Paul Nicholls’ yard down in Somerset and like a lot of Nicholls’ has been given a wind operation. She’s immensely talented (4th in the Champion Hurdle in 2019) but it just didn’t work out for her over fences last season. At these weights she doesn’t even need to be within 10lb of her best form to beat the boys and I expect her to win.
LAURINA 2 points win @ 6/4 unibet
3.00 HAYDOCK
Bristol De Mai is a standing dish here with course figures of 1112 having won this in 2017 and 2018. He found LOSTINTRANSLATION just too good last season and it may well be the same case here again. I’m a big fan of Colin Tizzard’s chaser and although last season he had had a run I still expect him to come out on top. He’s scant value at around 6/5 but I can’t understand how he’s currently 14/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March. Tizzard’s horses all ran below par at the meeting for whatever reason with the exception of Lostintranslation who ran a stormer to be beaten a neck and 1¼ lengths behind Al Boum Photo and Santini who’s current Gold Cup odds are 5/1 and 6/1 respectively. If he wins this that 14/1 will be a distant memory. I cant have the two rank outsiders despite this afternoons money for Bellshill but obviously Paul Nicholls’ Clan Des Obeaux is a big player.
LOSTINTRANSLATION 2 points win @ 11/8 william hill
LOSTINTRANSLATION 1 point each way @ 14/1 Cheltenham Gold Cup paddy power
3.17 ASCOT
The ground is the key to this race. If the ground is genuinely soft (the times were slow this afternoon) then I expect Kim Bailey’s FIRST FLOW to take plenty of beating. Bailey loves this horse but has stated on several occasions that very soft is essential for his mudlark. His mark of 148 looks very workable. On the other hand Henry De Bromhead’s Abbey Magic is a very talented who the trainer says is a good ground mare. Magic Saint won at Cheltenham last Saturday but is up 7lb here in a deep race whilst his stable mate Capeland bolted up in this last year and is only 7lb higher (that wouldn’t have stopped him then for sure). I’ll take a chance that there enough juice in the ground for First Flow.
FIRST FLOW 1 point win @ 5/1 william hill
3.35 HAYDOCK
I previewed this in the week and as expected the ante-post favourite Cloudy Glen failed to declare. I will stick with ALMINAR down the bottom of the weights for Devon trainer Nigel Hawke and stable jockey David Noonan who will love this test of stamina. He’s also had his wind done since he last ran which may squeeze out a bit more improvement. It looks wide open mind with plenty of dangers.
ALMINAR 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 (advised @ 16/1 in week)
3.50 ASCOT
A hard race to assess with 10 of the 13 yet to see a racecourse of any description. This will go to a newcomer with debutants from the big yards of Pauling, Nicholls, Tizzard, Twiston-Davies and Henderson. I can pass on a good word for the Nicky Henderson newcomer WRAYSFORD and he would be a tentative selection to small stakes.
WRAYSFORD ½ point win @ 4/1 william hill
Decent enough day
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-27 points today. One winner and one place. Must admit I never feel confident with so many selections(8 today) and much prefer 4 maximum. Last Saturday I only had two selections if I remember right, so it swings in roundabouts.
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Master Tommytucker looked good. Seems to be improving this year. Will no doubt see him in graded races next which will show us how good he really is. Travels and leads well. Beat a decent field today jumping well. Interesting to see how his jumping will hold out against better horses and how he handles that pressure.
- The Brigadier and Wildgarden
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Now backed into 5/1 favourite
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2 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:
Very true Chris, this is Bristol's Gold Cup for sure and lets not forget last year the ground was officially good to soft though as we all know the softer the better for him. Personally I'm in the Lost In Translation camp - its going to be cracker
Yes really looking forward to it. Win or lose I’ll enjoy it. More importantly the horses come back in one piece.
- The Brigadier and vikki37
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7 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:
great value
He’s 10/3 now. Apart from the main festivals I don’t usually bother with Grade A races, unless I can see a good bet, and this represents a good bet I reckon. The forecast rain hasn’t arrived like they said it would, but it’s still soft. Other than this race I’m not sure where else they can aim the horse. Clearly not a Kempton horse, and although has run well at Cheltenham , he’s never going to win the gold cup, not now anyway. They will be throwing the kitchen sink at this one. So will LIT but he’s got bigger things to go at.
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Took 3/1 on Bristol De Mai
- The Brigadier and MCLARKE
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Don’t bother with grade 1s unless it’s the big festivals. Might be tempted with Bristol De Mai, though. Now 5/2 and in my eyes the one to beat. Just cannot see Clan Des Obeaux winning. Usually needs the run and not sure this track and test of stamina will suit even though he’s won at Haydock before but in much calmer waters. Lostintranslation will be sure to give it a good go, and is probably the best horse overall in the race, but hasn’t had a prep run this year and I can see Bristol De Mai being a tougher nut to crack this year. I’ll be backing Clan for King George, would consider backing LIT for the gold cup again, but reckon it’s Bristol De Mais day tomorrow.
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Lots of action and selections for me on Saturday .
Haydock 12.40, Newtide 11/2
Haydock 1.15, Dashel Drasher 3/1
Haydock 1.50, Kid Commando 4/1/ Flash The Steel 10/1 e/w. Kid Commando top rated, but really like the look of Flash The Steel who is second best rated. Money back on first selection if finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th.
Haydock 2.25, Third Wind 13/2 e/w, Kalashnikov 14/1, e/w, paying 6 places.
Ascot 3.17, Abbey Magic 5/1
- The Brigadier and vikki37
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4 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:
well done Chris - you cant stop Venetia when the muds flying
It’s a good yard. The horses last RPR at Ascot was 151, too, so that was a big positive.
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16 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:
Weren’t going to bother with the 2.40 Ascot because ground conditions gone against my highest rated, but he’s ran ok on G/S before , and the going is Soft/GS in places. He’s also gone out to 40/1 so I’ll use my free bet on him now. It’s a free hit .
2.40 Ascot , Nelson River 40/1 ew , paying 3 places.
Ran quite well. No match for the first two but just held off and finished fourth after making up a lot of ground on the run in. Never mind.
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Weren’t going to bother with the 2.40 Ascot because ground conditions gone against my highest rated, but he’s ran ok on G/S before , and the going is Soft/GS in places. He’s also gone out to 40/1 so I’ll use my free bet on him now. It’s a free hit .
2.40 Ascot , Nelson River 40/1 ew , paying 3 places.
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21 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
2.05 Ascot
Espoir De Guye 3/1 won
30 points profit returned
- The Equaliser, vikki37 and MCLARKE
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2.05 Ascot
Espoir De Guye 3/1
- vikki37 and The Brigadier
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1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:
10pts ew third wind 15/2 6places sky
10pts ew dolphin square 16/1 6places sky
You think 15/2 will stay? Was 10/1 the other day. Might see if he drifts out again.
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@MCLARKE just read the gamble on Bushypark which went from 16s into 7/4 favourite is being asked by Horseracing Bettors Forum to be investigated . It’s on RP newsfeed
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Lesson learned for me then. Got my money back and a few quid profit for my troubles , so got away with it this time.
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21 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
1.30 Market Rasen
Tower Bridge 10/1 ew paying 4 places
Been off for best part of a year and may need run, but nice price for a horse that showed some strong hurdle form. Has also been sent chasing and produced some good runs, although pulled up last twice in two big competitive handicaps over in Ireland . Does most of his racing in Ireland and only comes over for the big festivals, so interesting that he’s been sent over for this. Aidan Coleman on board.
E/W money returns 3.50 points profit. Rule 4 applied .
- The Brigadier and vikki37
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Thought the same myself, although it’s already been pointed out on here that it’s a qualifier for the pertemps and you only need to finish top 6. Still he hasn’t been sent over just to try and run into the top 6, surely. On ATR the value of the race is 16k.
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1.30 Market Rasen
Tower Bridge 10/1 ew paying 4 places
Been off for best part of a year and may need run, but nice price for a horse that showed some strong hurdle form. Has also been sent chasing and produced some good runs, although pulled up last twice in two big competitive handicaps over in Ireland . Does most of his racing in Ireland and only comes over for the big festivals, so interesting that he’s been sent over for this. Aidan Coleman on board.
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Nice winner again @MCLARKE
Racing Chat - Sunday 22nd Nov 2020
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by Villa Chris
Exeter 1.33
From The Heart 9/2/ Rathlin Rose 28/1 ew