Villa Chris

There’s several I like the look of in The National Hunt Chase but going to chase Gericault Roque who I’m pretty sweet on and Hasthing . Better now it’s a handicap I think .

These are two I’ve looked at 👍

My 3 for the Ultima are….. The Changing Man Katate Dori Richmond lake My big fancy in this is Katete Dori. Richmond Lake an ew play with Brian Hughes on board

This has been on going for couple of months now. He said Lossiemouth would beat CH. Now it’s Brighterdaysahead that will beat CH. Seems to think he’s on decline and doesn’t have a love in with Nico either. There has been a decline but wether anything is good enough to beat him yet I don’t know.

Very True 😂

It’s been advertised as G/S good in places hence why they probably didn’t fancy him. The actual going is closer to Soft ground which the horse enjoys . It’s criminal really .

Im on Afadil but my other fancy Knickerbockerglory might prefer the conditions more now .

Paul Nicholls not too happy about it . His horse very well backed prefers better ground but the going isn’t what it’s meant to be . Shocking really .

Why do they call it better ground than it is ? Sandown is notoriously soft ground a lot of the time.

After all this talk of good ground at Sandown I see they have eased the going . Tune from the first race indicates soft ground too. The going stick says it’s soft .

One that has caught my eye but has got a lot of trends going against him is Workahead .Only a maiden winner but that race has some decent form lines . Not sure how many maiden winners have gone on to win a supreme in their next race .

Hereford 2.05 Hypertenus 15/8 Sandown 2.25 Afadil 15/2 Sandown 3.35 Goshen 9/2 Sandown 4.45 Triple Trade 13/2

I’ve got Afadil and To Chase A Dream. Also potentially Knickerbockerglory if the ground is testing. Strange really though there’s plenty of good in the description but going stick is saying it very soft ground ???????

I’m hoping sky do money back as cash on the first race so I’ll see if there’s anything to take on the favourite with .

Constitution Hill doesn’t seem as good going off his ratings but that could be dangerous thinking and 4/6 might be generous . Brighterdaysahead looks serious competition and seems to be a big improver and that 7Ibs could be a big pull as you say Richard. I’m quite disappointed with how the Supreme is shaping up . Big odds on favourite first time in a few years if my memory serves me right. Doesn’t seem very strong renewal but what an awful price if you really fancy the favourite who seems to have 1 or 2 issues with his temperament. There’s a few odds on shots on first day. There could be value in the arkle and looks a decent race .

No surprise to see Kempton showing poor results .

I’ve just had a quick glance more than anything. I’ll go through it Sunday when the final entries are declared.

This is what I wanted thanks mate

Cheers Rich. I’ve got it in my head 21 days is ideal rest for a jumps horse but wondered how long was too long . Obviously you’ll have horses that go well fresh but as a whole unfit horses or tired horses don’t win many races .

@MCLARKE or anyone else . What do statistics say about days between races . Is the optimum time between runs for example 21 days etc etc .

The Ultima is one of my favourite races . Just looking at the entries and 5 jump out at me . The Changing Man Karate Dori Henry’s Friend Famous Bridge Malina Girl obviously ground will effect 1 or 2 .

It does seem Black Rabbit and Ted the wolf like horses at big prices who are down to their last winning marks or below . Past performances > form . I could be wrong. Add to that I think Black Rabbit has contacts in the industry .

I think he’d have to kill you if he told you 😉

I’ve knocked my ratings on the head . I’ve tinkered about here and there but I think they are flawed . Haven’t got round to it yet but I’m going to work on a criteria based selection system which I’m hoping can be more productive if not pretty profitable. I’ve got some ideas in mind which I need to jot down. Also there will be selections that I just pick because I like the horse or yard, or they just jump out as a good bet . I’m not a profitable gambler as of yet so I’d advise no one to follow any of my selections. Hopefully I can put some up next week and get warmed up for Cheltenham which will be super hard .

Oh yeah I’m not saying it’s the bet was just pointing out it’s 6/4 boosted. Both got question marks over them, Constitution the likely winner out of the two you mentioned but long term you’d be better going with the 11/2. I watched the French horse last year at kempton and it was very impressive and was ran in a quicker time than the king George that day.