Villa Chris

Ascot 4.30 Deise Aba 12/1

Yeah he was 2nd in this race last year off 11Ibs higher .

A Dream To Share . Has some very smart National Hunt flat form. Ran over far too short a trip last time out and runs over even shorter today . One to keep on side for long distance runs on the flat .

@Tedthewolf They are running A Dream To Share over an even shorter trip today in Ireland . 7 furlongs the distance. As you said one to keep an eye on for future long distance races.

Doncaster 2.25 , Al Shabab Storm 8/1 Kempton 2.05, Golden Rules 11/2, don’t let the long lay off put you off he’s won off a similar break before and looks well handicapped . Kempton 2.50 , Killybegs Warrior 12/1 Kempton 5.35 , Enthused 33/1. Big price for a horse who’s very capable. Has been run over the wrong trip the past two runs. Could be primed for a big run here and we’ll handicapped Uttoxeter 5.05 , Party Business 4/1 small stakes

Wins by simply outstaying them . Wasn’t pretty at times but could go up further in distance I think .

I think he’s a nice price and you’ll get a good run for your money . Found a new leash of life with his new trainer. I’ve had a small play on him .

Ilitch 4.55 Fontwell 4/1 Looks like he’ll improve from being upped in distance from 2m

I’m sweet on Ballybrittas too . Good luck 👍

Me and a work colleague have started having a few quid each week against each other whoever can pick the most winners on the ITV7s . If we are tied it goes on who got winners with bigger odds. I just pick them off the cuff . He uses market movers to pick his selections just before the first race. Im not that interested in the AW usually but I’ve noticed a lot of favourites win on the AW.

Ziggy Condor is the forums Nap today Ive gone Supreme King on my itv 7s

It’s added pressure when you’re doing it for other people as well as yourself . It’s a tough old game the nags .

Rough with the smooth . If it was that easy we’d all be retired. There’s not many that can make a healthy profit from it even the ones that think they do don’t when you look back at their bets . There’s some on here that clearly do and you seem like you do well enough at it . Even the best have crap runs . I’ve gave up my ratings, I enjoyed it and at times it did alright but I accepted it was flawed and made a loss and it stopped being fun enough for me to carry on . Using notepad and pen to do them probably wasn’t ideal. I’m more casual with my selections now and more open about things instead of being rigid which ratings can do to you. I never bet big anyway but I’ve even decreased the amount that I put on them which has made it more fun and makes my money go further. Your ratings are good 👍

Returned just shy of £10 with the double. I thought Planned Paradise was going to do the business for me too looked the likely winner until the favourite nabbed him.

Trainer is 41% strike rate with 7 day winners too.

There’s some horrible prices about but Stumptown having won the cross country at Cheltenham off that mark has to be taken very seriously for this. Last years winner is a very classy horse along with being a very good stayer. You’ve got to be very good and lucky to win off top weight but the manner of his win last year I don’t think he’ll be far away. Iroko looks like a plodder and seems to be crying out for a marathon trip . I’ll have to have a proper look lower down the betting but I think it’s getting harder for the genuine handicap horses at big prices to win this now. Class has come more into it.

4.30 Carlisle veterans chase. Only 4 runners but I see the two class horses are in the bottom two in the betting, although Cloudy Glen is 12 now and is definitely on the decline, Does He Know certainly seems still capable and is the genuine class act in the field . I’ve covered Cloudy Glen a horse I’ve always been fond of in my lucky 15, but I’m doubling Does He Know up with Springt De La Mare in the 3.28 at Limerick who looks like a smart one for Gavin Cromwell . The double pays just shy of 8/1.

3.20 Carlisle , Red Happy 11/2 4.13 Exeter , Planned Paradise 10/1 4.23 Naas , Sunchart 11/2 4.30 Carlisle , Cloudy Glen 15/2 20p a line = £3.00 potential returns £1282.30

I watched the 4.02 from Bangor. Very gamely ride there for the winner well done he was relentless from the front.

At those prices a lucky 15 would have paid nice just for the double

You’re on fire today

Wouldn’t surprise me if Raffertys Return placed at 40/1. Paying 6 places with sky.

4.30 Navan , Canal End 9/2 Still a maiden over fences but I think being upped in distance will see the necessary improvement to get his first win in this sphere . Ran a career best when upped to 2.4m last time out to finish second staying on and well clear of third. Nice patient ride from mark Walsh and powers home comfortably. 2.40 Newbury , Matterhorn 11/1 Tricky race to nail but I think Matterhorn is overpriced and is a better horse than the price is letting on. Still unexposed . Came last I thought Cobden may have tried to race him on the pace and not off the pace but what do I know. 5.35 Newbury , Some Scope 4/1 Pulled up the last twice but had excuses in both I feel ( Too short a distance/ bad mistake) is used to racing well in grade 3 and class 2 races. Drops down to class 3 and I fancy him here . Goes from 5/1 to 14/1 just before the off so didn’t look promising. Was running a good race then just emptied and pulled up I think.

5. Benefit Ben8/1 Winner 14:50 Musselburgh 2. Glory And Fortune13/2 Winner 15:00 Newbur 1. Stormy Flight6/1 Winner 16:02 Newbu 1. Mack The Man12/1 Winner 17:00 Musselburgh Stake£3.00 Potential Returns£1,903.80 Betfred