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Villa Chris

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Everything posted by Villa Chris

  1. It’s not on the profile on mobile phones, so it seems .
  2. I actually wrote something up for non handicap races a few months back. Only tested it a few times, but will revisit it and see what I can do with it
  3. Do you consider the going when looking back on its last 3 runs. For example today might be G/F but last three runs were on Good, Good, Soft. Would you still use that as a guide to how quick the horse is and it’s RPR form rating. Also when looking back at its last 2-3 runs do you look back at its last 3 runs from last year if it still hasn’t run this year yet. Just thinking the horse might not run as well on G/F or the horse ran well towards end of last season but usually takes a 2-3 runs to get at peak form for the new season .
  4. He won well. Always looked the likely winner .
  5. Second and 6 points returned profit +£78.75
  6. Ew money back . 3rd rated won . Well done Richard . Great stuff again .
  7. Yes something is working, and my approach is pretty simple, it’s crazy really. If you can improve things by 1% it’s worth doing . Don’t want to try and complicate things but there’s still so much more to look at to improve. Will definitely paper trial it and see how it compares to how I normally do it. I’m not that fussed about the non handicaps until the big festivals. I like the fact that I just concentrate on certain types of races and certain class/grade. It narrows things down for me, but it would be good to have a one fits all approach.
  8. Epsom 2.50 Good Birthday 7/2 £10 win Sky Defender 10/1 £10 win both sky bet
  9. Course form at Epsom should be considered strongly . Usually I do my bets night before as I don’t have time on race day in the week, but managed to fit it in today and he’s drifted a bit .
  10. This is how I rated Epsom 2.50 Good Birthday 7.5 Sky Defender 7.45 these are the top two with third rated only pulling in a 7. Sky Defender offers much better value and is a course winner. Epsom doesn’t suit everyone so with Sky Defender likely to be up there with the pace which can pay off at Epsom I’ve gone with him ew. The fact he’s so closely rated with Good Birthday it seems the obvious bet. Only 9 runners so don’t really want to play both of them and 7/2 is very skinny for Good Birthday. I’d want him at least 6/1 then I’d possibly play him ew too .
  11. Richard has made me rethink my ratings and dig a bit deeper . Will try and think of how I can improve and may apply them on Saturday. Happy enough so far but plenty of improvement to be had.
  12. Sorry for not contributing much the last day or so regarding ratings and how we can improve . Hangover from hell . Epsom 2.50 Good Birthday 7.5, 7/2(13/2) no value Sky Defender 7.45, 11/1(13/2) value second Victory Chime 7, 11/1(7/1) value won I have to play Sky Defender at that price. Not sure about Good Birthday because of price but he’s slightly top rated so I have to consider that. Will update if I play him. Sky Defender 11/1 5 points ew
  13. These are my allocations 30% distance 25% going 25% form 15% mark 5% course what I’ve started doing if a horse hasn’t run at that distance before is reading the write ups and trying to get hold of past videos to see if I think the horse is capable of running well at that distance. It’s surprising how well previous race write ups can make your mind up for you, as to wether the horse will stay the trip well. There’s also deductions for age which is important I think . Interesting that Richard has dropped the handicap rating and it’s actually improved results .
  14. Placed money on Jonah . Ratings weren’t far off.
  15. The favourite won but I managed to fill the places with the ratings
  16. All I do now is class 2 to Grade/Group 3s . You obviously have Listed races in between those . That narrows it down for me and even some of those races mentioned I won’t bother with if it’s novice races or not much form to go off.
  17. Part of me fully expects Mister Fogpatches to win the Scottish National with ease . Think he’s the only Irish trained horse in the race . Has ran well over in Ireland.
  18. 3.35 Ayr , Mighty Thunder 8/1 sky bet £20 win
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