Villa Chris

I’ve got Afadil and To Chase A Dream. Also potentially Knickerbockerglory if the ground is testing. Strange really though there’s plenty of good in the description but going stick is saying it very soft ground ???????

I’m hoping sky do money back as cash on the first race so I’ll see if there’s anything to take on the favourite with .

Constitution Hill doesn’t seem as good going off his ratings but that could be dangerous thinking and 4/6 might be generous . Brighterdaysahead looks serious competition and seems to be a big improver and that 7Ibs could be a big pull as you say Richard. I’m quite disappointed with how the Supreme is shaping up . Big odds on favourite first time in a few years if my memory serves me right. Doesn’t seem very strong renewal but what an awful price if you really fancy the favourite who seems to have 1 or 2 issues with his temperament. There’s a few odds on shots on first day. There could be value in the arkle and looks a decent race .

No surprise to see Kempton showing poor results .

I’ve just had a quick glance more than anything. I’ll go through it Sunday when the final entries are declared.

This is what I wanted thanks mate

Cheers Rich. I’ve got it in my head 21 days is ideal rest for a jumps horse but wondered how long was too long . Obviously you’ll have horses that go well fresh but as a whole unfit horses or tired horses don’t win many races .

@MCLARKE or anyone else . What do statistics say about days between races . Is the optimum time between runs for example 21 days etc etc .

The Ultima is one of my favourite races . Just looking at the entries and 5 jump out at me . The Changing Man Karate Dori Henry’s Friend Famous Bridge Malina Girl obviously ground will effect 1 or 2 .

It does seem Black Rabbit and Ted the wolf like horses at big prices who are down to their last winning marks or below . Past performances > form . I could be wrong. Add to that I think Black Rabbit has contacts in the industry .

I think he’d have to kill you if he told you 😉

I’ve knocked my ratings on the head . I’ve tinkered about here and there but I think they are flawed . Haven’t got round to it yet but I’m going to work on a criteria based selection system which I’m hoping can be more productive if not pretty profitable. I’ve got some ideas in mind which I need to jot down. Also there will be selections that I just pick because I like the horse or yard, or they just jump out as a good bet . I’m not a profitable gambler as of yet so I’d advise no one to follow any of my selections. Hopefully I can put some up next week and get warmed up for Cheltenham which will be super hard .

Oh yeah I’m not saying it’s the bet was just pointing out it’s 6/4 boosted. Both got question marks over them, Constitution the likely winner out of the two you mentioned but long term you’d be better going with the 11/2. I watched the French horse last year at kempton and it was very impressive and was ran in a quicker time than the king George that day.

Constitution Hill boosted to 6/4 on skybet.

Money back as cash 2nd or 3rd skybet I’ve got Fire Flyer as my top rated and is strong in the market so I’ve added him to my list today

Money back as cash 2nd or 3rd skybet I’ve got Fire Flyer as my top rated and is strong in the market so I’ve added him to my list today

This is my Xmas day today . My missus just asked if I wanted to take the girls shopping to spend their Xmas money. I’ve declined as it’s a day of racing and footy for me.

My selections today Leopardstown 2.55 Final Orders 9/1 Kempton 2.30 Grey Dawning 6/1 Kempton 3.40 Doddiethegreat 11/4 Aintree 1.40 Call Me Lyreen 66/1 EW lost Aintree 2.15 Gustavian 4/1 lost(2nd) Wetherby 1.35 Some Scope 10/3 won Wetherby 2.45 Willaston 15/2 Wincanton 2.28 Stay Away Fay 7/1 Market Rasen 1.47 Inis Oirr 7/1 lost 45 points staked 5 points win on all apart from the 1.40 Aintree which is EW -35 P/L

2.55 Leopardstown Final Orders just edges out The Folkes Tiara here for me. Form hasn’t been anything special but he’s back from a break and back down to a distance he’s 1,1,1,2 at over chases . Good course form also and is down a few Ibs for a top trainer. Final Orders 11/1 , 5 points win. The Folkes Tiara is a few Ibs well in with his claimer and will be dangerous .

Let’s see how bad I get it wrong for the big un at kempton Spillanes Tower/ Pretty solid in terms of profile although never ran at kempton before. Looks like he has the required speed and stamina for the test. May want it a touch softer though, but very progressive and a solid bet. IL Est Francais / Blew everyone away this time last year at kempton but I’ve got my doubts on wether he’ll be able to get away with it in this calibre of race. Seems fragile and may crumble under pressure. Banbridge/ Very smart horse on his day and a course winner. I’m not convinced he’s a 3 mile horse . Grey Dawning/ My idea of the winner. Has the necessary speed and stamina for this race and that Betfair Chase second is good form regardless of what some say. I personally don’t think that race will have left a negative mark on him either. My only negative is he’s been made a non runner twice on good ground. Bravemansgame/ Class act but I think he’s had too many hard races and his best is behind him . Envoi Allen/ I think it will all happen to quick for him and will struggle to maintain his jumping. Maybe too old also? L, Homme Presse/ Very good ew play and a proper grade 1 horse for a yard firing on all cylinders. First run back after break and although his first time out record is excellent I think it’s a big ask to rock up here and win. Was well beaten in this race two years ago when unseating. Corbetts Cross/ I think he will get run off his feet here and the speed test will not suit him. Would want it softer too. The Real Whacker/ I really like this horse but I’m not sure he’s grade 1 level and will have a hard time up with the pace Juntos Ganamos/ Not a lot I know about the horse. Hard task first run in Britain. Surely not good enough . General En Chef/ Again looks like he’s far from good enough but that Newbury run was good and would be my ew play if the race was to collapse in front of him. Very exposed too. Grey Dawning for me 5 points win

Merry Christmas to you all .

Fakenham reported as G/S good in places. The going stick is 4.9 and the time of the first race suggests it’s very testing.

2.13 Fakenham Gold Clermont 15/2 money back as cash if 2nd Betfred 3.13 Fakenham Planned Paradise 6/1 both bog 5 points win each I too have had to give the booze up. Was either family or booze, no brainer.

I took advantage of the money back as cash on the skybet footy treble today. Fair to say it looks like it’s going to win with Arsenal 4.1 up.

Couple of good runs in defeat but no winners -25