Foo_Fighter

Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Albert Ramos at 1.62 with William Hill
Ramos hasn't won a match in ages, and, while the return to clay should help, Struff did rather well in the qualifiers here, and should be primed to win this as well. Beating Varillas and Ruusuvuori is no easy feat, and he should be fitter than Ramos these days as well.

A very happy Casper Ruud and a very sad four-leaf 

Skipping Monte Carlo to lose to Yannick Hanfmann in the 2R in Houston lol 

Will Tiafoe be tanking vs. Johnson in Houston? He is expected to play 1st round in Montecarlo… Houston, even if they play 2 rounds every day, can’t be finished by tomorrow… on the other hand he made Qr last year, and also the final in Estoril… so he is losing some points this week. Anyway, I think I’ll go against him vs. Johnson, and if he beats Johnson I’ll bet again against him in the 2r

Not a bad final so far, I thought Murphy was gone at the interval! 4-4 is a bonus as he would have delighted to take 3-5 I'm sure. It's 50/50 tonight and luck may well decide the outcome.

yeah at 4-0 I didn't expect him to get back to 4-4. I still think Murphy will win it. A good final. 

glad to see him through. Will be a good final. Perfect one for the outrights

Great match from 6-9 down, only 2 tons but surely Kyren will bag it tomorrow as he's had a day off and Shaun must be pooped!

wow. Kvitova defeats Rybakina in straight sets. That's why completing the Sunshine Double is such a rare accomplishment I guess...

This will probably be the best sports highlight of 2023. 
 

This will probably be the best sports highlight of 2023. 
 

I'm going with the current silver medalist here. Khachanov to beat the Argentinean. Short odds (1.38), but what can you do? I feel very confident about this outcome.

I haven't been too excited about the PL recently. Hence, the lack of bets on it. It doesn't seem like the best of value from a betting perspective. I'll have one for tonight though and that's Aspinall to beat Dobey. I'll give a 4-fold accy a try, too. 
5pts Aspinall to beat Dobey 4/5 bet365
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2pt 4-fold - Smith, Aspinall, MVG and Price 5/1 paddypower
2pts Van Gerwen and Price both to hit 2+ 180s and each to hit a 100+ checkout in QF match 5/1 skybet

Taylor Fritz to win a set - Yes at 2.00 with bet365
Alcaraz the rightful favorite, but I happen to disagree with how the experts rate the two opponents. Both players have yet to drop a set in Miami. Fritz dismantled Rune (6-3, 6-4) and all the hype around him, whereas the Spaniard faced Tommy Paul, and prevailed quite easily in straight sets (6-4, 6-4) as well. If I try to break down the individual elements of both players' game I'll probably come down to this:
Better FH - Alcaraz
Better BH - Taylor Fritz
Better Serve - Taylor Fritz
Better Volley - Alcaraz
Better Smash & Overhead - Taylor Fritz 
Better Drop shot - Alcaraz
Better Slice - Taylor Fritz 
Better Retrieving skills - Alcaraz
Better Stamina - Alcaraz 
Better Tactical player - Taylor Fritz 
 
Looks like a well balanced combat, doesn't it? Where on earth did they find these odds?!?

Nadia Podoroska (+1.5 sets) to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto at 1.70 with Pinnacle
I saw both Podoroska and Cocciaretto in the previous round, and Podoroska looked much better in the tricky conditions. She also has more power in her shots, and that should do her a lot of good in this match-up given the conditions, especially if Cocciaretto is as defensively minded as in round one. I like the odds for Podoroska to win at least a set.

First match today/tonight is Allen taking on Ding. Ding comes into this after winning the 6-red tournament ofcourse but the bet on him today isn't so much because of that. He beat Bingham, Ford and Un Nooh to win that event so it doesn't twinkle in the sky of achievements. However, Allen isn't playing very well right now and I think Ding should probably be favourite in this one. Perhaps Allen turns it around over the longer format and if he does then he would probably make the final. But, you can only go with what you've seen
5pts Ding to beat Allen 11/10 bet365

We into the final tournament before the big one. Only 8 players this week. I may aswell note the draw :
Allen/Ding
Carter/K.Wilson
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Selby/Day
Murphy/Milkins
I'll keep this simple because in my opinion you can rule out half the field atleast. Allen isn't playing well enough and whilst I think Carter is playing the best of the top half, he doesn't have a good record against Kyren or Ding. I hate betting on Kyren Wilson but I think he plays Ding in the semi-final and I reckon over a longer match format that Kyren gets through to the final. I still think he will lose to Murphy though. I didn't fancy Murphy last week because he just wants to play in-front of a crowd. He will want to go into the Worlds in good form.
4pts Murphy to win Tour Championship 7/2 bet365
2pts e/w K.Wilson to win Tour Championship 13/2 betvictor

Tsitsipas 1.25
Tiafoe 1.4
FAA 1.22
Pegula 1.2
Rybakina 1.22
These should come in, don't you think?

@Nes* why so confused? Zandschulp did fine.

Petra Kvitova to beat Varvara Gracheva at 1.50 with William Hill
Varvara Gracheva has some tremendous form to her name, but I'll side with Kvitova for the second time in Miami. For one, Gracheva hasn't played against many players with this sort of raw power recently, and that's where her weakness lies imo, she just isn't able to hit back with the same sort of power. This might upset @money44, but I'm just not seeing it for Gracheva :(.

I like the odds but I will stay away from that match anyway, not sure in anything

Van De Zandschulp @3.9 vs. Ruud
Going against Ruud here, he is not playing his best tennis lately and H2H in favour of Van De Zandschulp 2-1, with one on hard court won 3-1 by Botic at the USO 2021.
I take also Van De Zandschulp + 1,5 sets @2.1
 

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Sonya Kenin at 2.32 with Unibet
I'm on Bianca tonight because she's been quite reasonable with her game this week and it seems to work for here. I even think she's won Miami before in 2019 or if it was Indian Wells, don't remember but anyway she's got 3 straight 2-0 victories in this matchup. I know Kenin has some connections to Miami being there already at 6 years old and being walked around by Kim Clijsters and saying hello to Andy Roddick. She also wanted to get a haircut at the venue as she told Kim but that was another story. However Bianca is ranked 32 right now and Kenin has made progress with her game but she even lost 2-0 before to Bianca in Miami and the other two times was in Toronto and a smaller ITF. Kenin isn't there yet to challenge Bianca who did well enough by taking out Sakkari to be able to take out Sonya in straights again. So I think this 2.32 price should be taken. Depending on how the match evolves there might be some higher odds to come by in-play but I'm just not gonna sit and wait for that to happen. BTW doesn't Andreescu sound romanian?
Varvara Gracheva to beat (-1.5 sets) Magdalena Frech at 1.94 with Unibet
Varvara has it in her to progress further in this tournament. I don't expect her to win by numbers like 6-2 again because Ons Jabeur is playing much worse than Magdalena is right now. Ons just isn't top 10 quality anymore, not even top 50 to be honest. Varvara however is going forward and has the game to keep playing good enough again to get by Magdalena in straights. Magdalena had some difficulties for a set with Erika Andreeva and it doesn't look good ahead of this matchup so it's gonna be very risky to go against Varvara in this match, even going for Magdalena to take a set could be highly risky. I might be reluctant to take Varvara to cover -4.5 games handicap because like I've said I can't expect Magdalena to play as bad as Ons did and being completely run over tonight since I think there is a chance she'll cover 4.5 games. Even if it gets tight with some tie-break Varvara hasn't shown anything lately suggesting that she would lose a breaker to her polish counterpart. What Varvara does on court now is equal to an inform player in the top 30.
Double at 4.50 with Unibet
Surely should be other bookies like Pinnacle or so outthere offering slightly improved price so go for other bookies if you guys like but I'm gonna stick with my bookie on this one. I don't even like Pinnacle that much because of their turnover requirement of 3 times the deposit.
Back this tonight and it might give a chance for a happy day.

I'm not sure... the big question is if she has enough resources to make it to the final... then (if Sabalenka makes it) it's an open match like the 2 previous finals this year. Rybakina doesn't attract the same media attention of other players but on hard courts as for now she is second to none. Anyway the draw is pretty open now, and yesterday it was again FULL WTA MODE, with favs like Gauff, Azarenka, Samsonova (Argh, this one hurts... ?) blowing leads and eventually losing quite badly... will see what tomorrow brings

William O'Connor to beat (+1.5) Rob Cross at 2.00 with bet365
Josh Rock to beat (-1.5) Brendan Dolan at 1.66 with bet365
Good luck.