The Equaliser

I agree with you on that one Calva don't bet on these  type of races usually  but  looks to have a decent e/w chance and 22's looks decent  value not  sending over for nothing will love the mucky conditions. Also like the other 2 Irish trained horses running  over the jumps at Wetherby today 12,25 Hear No Evil 16/1 & 2.45 Decor Irlandais 8/1 both look to have good e/w chances.

IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
20pts staked
Update
Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now

One Trixie today at Newmarket:
12.55 Side Shot (FD) £2 win at 5/2
1.30 Galactic Glow (WB) £2 win at 9/2
2.05 Mystery Angel (FD) £2 win at 7/2
1 x £1 win Trixie = £4 poss return of £146.37
Total multiples = £4
Total singles stakes = £6
Total stakes  = £10
Good luck to all punters at Newmarket today.  It looks like heavy going ?
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Three seconds so nothing gained at all.  I am going to lay all my selections in- running at 1.95 for a stake of £10.20 in the future.  This means that if one gets close but fails then I get back my stake money.  Should I be watching the racing I will cancel the other two bets if the first bet gets matched and loses.  Should the first bet win I would let the second bet run and cancel the third if that one gets matched and loses.  should the second one win I will repeat the same again.  Very frustrating to get beaten on all my selections.
Anyway multiples = £4 loss and the balance is now £622.69 (Bank £800)
The loss on singles is £6 so the balance is now £149.39 (Bank £400) I don't think I can get back to B/E now but will soldier on
Three jumps meetings tomorrow with an inspection at Lingfield.  Possibly do a Trixie and win bets if I get the time to do so.
   
 

Going out today so no time for write ups I'm afraid...all prices Bet365:
 
12.25 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Tintern Theatre @ 15/2
1.20 Ascot - 1pt e/w Copper Coin @ 10/1
1.35 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Hes No Trouble @ 15/2
3.05 Ascot - 1pt e/w Countister @ 13/2
3.20 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Definitly Red @ 11/1
3.40 Ascot - 1pt e/w Valtor @ 7/1
 

All prices Bet365:
11.55 Wetherby - 1pt e/w One More Fleurie @ 10/1
Didn't show much on reappearance but may have needed that and it also came in a better race than this. Previously has shown some solid enough form before racing too freely over three miles in the mud at the back end of last year. With fitness on side and the drop back in trip a potential positive around here, can see a better effort this afternoon off a decent mark.
12.35 Newmarket - 2pts win Alanmar @ 5/1
Has a good pedigree and is related to 5 decent winners with the majority scoring either on their first or second start so this one is likely to be forward and William Haggas' are usually good to go on debut. Has plenty of soft ground horses in its pedigree too so lots to like on debut here at a backable price.
12.50 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Everything Now @ 28/1
The favourite is the likely winner if good to go but I think Everything Now has sound each-way hopes here. Was green on debut in a bumper but shaped well at a big price after a long absence last time out over hurdles, finishing midfield but not beaten a million miles considering it was his debut over jumps after a long absence. Also will certainly want further than two miles and this extra half mile will suit. He's a half brother to three jumpers all rated 20-30lbs higher than him so definite scope for improvement and his relatives stay so two miles was never likely to suit.
2.10 Wetherby - 1pt e/w Louis Vac Pouch @ 10/1
Bit in an out in his career to date but showed some good novice chase form and also ran well in a big handicap chase at the Cheltenham festival earlier in the year too. Much of his racing has come over shorter than ideal or in novice races against good horses so I think there's some scope off this mark in a handicap with conditions in his favour. Jumping will need to hold up but has the benefit of a recent run and that could help him against some types returning from absences today. 
2.55 Newmarket - 2pts win Hawridge Flyer @ 7/1
Runs this track well and runs off the same mark as when fighting out the finish with Berrahri here a few starts back. The pair were 7 lengths clear and this one has had excuses since - running in a hot race here on good ground and then hampered over a shorter than ideal 1m2f trip last time out. Returns to ideal conditions in terms of track, trip and ground now and looks to hold a real chance this afternoon.
3.30 Newmarket - 2pts win Awake My Soul @ 9/2
Is getting on a bit now but still in good heart and the race wasn't quite ideal at Pontefract last time. Got outpaced on the home turn as can happen there and those in front tend to get away from you, as they did that day. This long straight should play more to his strengths and he's clearly still in decent form so in a winnable race looks worthy of a bet.

15.45 Lingfield
This can go the way of Sir Michael Stoute's SORREL (Nap) who is difficult to oppose here. This impressive Dansili filly is improving with each start and left a lasting impression with an eye catching victory at Doncaster last month, doing her best work close to home. She has progressed with each start to date, landing back-to-back handicaps at up to 1m4f in a Class 4 and a Class 2 in recent months and is now on for the three-timer. More to come now up in trip and is the type to go on improving for her legendary trainer and so she gets the vote now up in class.
 

All odds Bet365:
 
1.15 Lingfield - 1[t e/w Dubai Tigress @ 14/1
Looks a live each-way player to me having run okay on debut at Kempton over 6f. That race was full of horses with experience including a couple rated around the 80 mark and wasn't beaten far by them. William Knight wouldn't have many first time out winners and this horse's pedigree contains quite a bit of stamina so 6f was always likely to catch it out on debut. Up to 7f today with that experience under its bet, can expect more now.
2.06 Stratford - 1pt e/w Generous Day @ 14/1
Form dipped a bit at the end of last season but had excuses on those efforts and has back form which would give him a big chance in this race. Is used to running in better races than this and conditions suit on seasonal reappearance. Has run well fresh a few times before and has had a wind op since he was last seen so freshened up, could go close if on a going day.
2.36 Stratford - 1pt e/w White Walker @ 25/1
Big price for a Skelton horse but I thought he had a chance here at an each-way price. Ran well on debut in a big field bumper and shaped better than the bare result both in its subsequent race on heavy ground and then on hurdling debut after a lengthy absence. Shaped as if in need of the run that day and should improve for this. Conditions should suit, he's a half brother to the decent jumper Bandsman and I think there's more in the tank from this one.
3.45 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Domino Darling @ 7/1
Doesn't quite have the form in the book yet but that's largely down to the fact that she hasn't had her conditions. Is bred to stay well so the step up in trip here is certain to suit and her effort when beaten 4 lengths in a listed event when last seen is decent enough considering she will certainly be best over further.

Results


Though a small sample it seems RPR's is a reasonable medium @ pointing you in the direction of winners though the ROI is something to be desired backing blindly.
Restricting bets to the ones that have an expected Edge return a better ROI on both Non BOG & BOG early prices in both cases SP is a non starter, which reinforces the idea of making your own tissue .
My own database doesn't have RPR saved so I cant back test a large enough amount of data to say whether the above is the norm or just noise, but if you dont make your own ratings it could be worthwhile investigating RPR's a bit deeper .
I might even fire a bot up on Betdaq and let in run on small stakes for a month & see how it fares (at least it will give me something to do in lockdown )
ATB
VT

Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
Here are all today's qualifiers

Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
Therefore....
At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark

Well to be honest im a bit foolish if i had backed my last 6 top rated i would have won five of them but short prices, the nap "shall we go now" today was schooling in public which was a bit annoying (watch the race see if u agree) but for this competition i would rather stand or fall on a decent size SP its more fun and more profitable over all, I back all my naps and have them in lucky 15's and do quite well mixing the prices, your right about the KO cup i will have to behave.

In a sprint race I don't think weight is as such an influence more the class grade and speed rating imo

2.40 Taunton - 1pt win Comeragh Lad @ 66/1 Bet365

3:20 Nott Shall We Go Now 9/1 Betfred

Then I see why they seem to compliment each other ......mine are based on past runs .....who beat who etc lol ....priority is given to last 2 runs so that's 2 ratings ......then the best run in last 6 ....that's 3 ratings ......a class rating that's 4 .....and a recent performance rating based on last 3 runs that is completely diff method from the other 4 like a bonus figure  .....weight is adjusted accordingly then the computer will take it's best "guess " as to what the horse can achieve today if it runs its race .based on the big picture ........I learned this method from the weather forecasts funnily enough...its how the super computers predict the weather....take loads of diff perspectives and see roughly what will happen...so if i get 4 figures 221 224 219 and 227 then realistically a figure of 223 for today is realistic given similar conditions /weight etc ......the last 2 are class rating ....I then judge the value on the ratings ... so if I rate a race 
Horsez1  225  3/1 
Horse 2  224   10/1 
Horse 3 224 7/1 
Horse 4  223  5/2 fav
Horse 5  219  7/1 
Then obviously horses 2 and 3 are the value bets ..   it's a no brainer 
If the ratings are 
Horse 1   233  7/2 
Horse 2 230 6/1 
Horse 3 225   4/1 
Horse 4 222 10/1 
With the other horses behind ....then the top 2  look value in these conditions to me and I'll play .....that's how i roll every time .....

Thank you. Should be easy enough, yes. 

1.57 Aintree, Itchy Feet 7/2
3.42 Aintree, Mohaayed 12/1 e/w
two singles and the double 

2nd @ 11/1
1st @ 13/2
Nowhere
2nd @ 20/1
2nd @ 15/2
5th @ 25/1
 
Bit frustrating but can't complain. 

Returned 35 points profit on the day 

Cheltenham 2.40
4 runner novice chase. Analysis suggests top or joint top weight and to exclude CD winners. This gives an AE of 1.28. It eliminates 2 of the runners and leaves :
NOT THAT FUISSE 7/2 BET365
SOUTHFIELD STONE 15/8 UNIBET

I don't normally bet on NH until November but with Cheltenham being on ITV I'll have a small punt.
2.10 Not a lot of data to go on but horses with forecast odds of 5/2 - 7/1 have an AE of 1.53. This leaves :-
BOTOX HAS 6/1 BET365
STRATAGEM 8/1 BET365
 
 

There are a couple of decent class 2 handicaps at Doncaster over 10 and 12 furlongs. There have been 126 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-
Draw = 1. AE = 1.59. A very strong statistic with a strike rate of 21%.
Weight < 9st 1lb. AE = 1.15. As the going becomes heavier towards the end of the season then higher weights struggle.
Horse bred in UK. AE = 1.13. I don't have a great deal of knowledge of breeding but the country of breeding is quite influential in some instances. I suspect it is not used by many people in the selection process so it may provide a betting edge.
Age = 3 or 4. AE = 1.10. As the season progresses the younger horses tend to mature and perform better.
Forecast odds > 7/2. Again as the season progresses the weather and going becomes more variable and form becomes less reliable which impacts on the profitability of favourites.
Top rated in the 1.10 is CEPHEUS 1.15 - 13/2 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the weight, although it is heavily influenced by being drawn 1.
There are 3 joint 2nd with a rating of 1.08.
ICONIC CHOICE 9/1 BET365
FISHABLE 4/1 BET365
TULIP FIELDS 9/1 BET365
In the 2.20 the top rated is ISHVARA 1.08 - 8/1 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the draw.
Rated 2nd is ABEL HANDY 1.05- 22/1 BET365. This horse is drawn 1 but is a 5yo bred in Ireland.
 

All prices Bet365:
 
1.10 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Dash of Spice @ 11/1
Was off a higher mark than this a few years ago and took a couple of runs to get going after two years off the track. Had excuses over 1m6f and then was too close to a hot pace behind Laafy at Ascot recently. Put in a poor run last time but is the type to bounce back and conditions suit so can see a good run today.
2.05 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Botox Has @ 13/2
Wasn't far behind Allmankind when they met here last season and there looks quite a lot of pace in here which can suit Botox Has who stays strongly and will relish a test today. Has form up there with the best here and at 13/2, so long as he's fit enough, really should make the frame and threaten the win.
3.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Minella Warrior @ 22/1
Hasn't worked out for him over fences - he's not the best jumper, quite slow and uses energy to get over his flights and I think it's the right move bringing him back to hurdles. Was in good form in staying hurdle races when last running in this sphere and it wouldn't surprise me to see a big improvement now with a stamina test to suit. 
3.35 Newbury - 1pt e/w Percy's Lad @ 14/1
Was impressive on debut given Eve Johnson-Haughton's runners typically come on plenty and there's substance to both that form and its win in a muddling affair last time, doing well to win from two solid yardsticks. Soft ground shouldn't inconvenience and a better gallop to aim at here (stays further) can see a big run. 
3.50 Cheltenham - 1pt win West Approach @ 7/1
Often saves his best for Cheltenham and also has a good record fresh which bodes well for today's reappearance. Had an off day when last seen, never really travelling, but is the type to bounce back with conditions to suit having been freshened up and has been rated higher in the past.
4.05 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 16/1
Looks a big price to me as a flat track suits and is only a pound higher than when winning at York earlier in the season. Has been running okay lately but over a mile when 7f is his trip and the drop back to this distance today will definitely help. Can see him running his race and getting involved at the finish at a big price.

6:15 Moonee Valley cox plate Aspetar, bet365 are offering 14/1 but looking at the rules i might have to settle for sp re "naps"

The 4:05 at Wolves tomorrow is a class 2 handicap 11 runners over 5F.
Now here's the thing, put all these horses in a race with Battash, now consider this, how far would Battash beat this lot by?
If Ornate comes last in this race it will still rank in my book as one of the best bets I have ever come across in all my years of betting.
14/1 bet365 is an unbelievable price so i'm getting my wheel barrow out shovelling a pile of money in it and tipping it up in bet365's lobby.

Hereford 3.35
Fugitives Drift 5/2