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The Equaliser

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Everything posted by The Equaliser

  1. I always factor in the 2% commission to the requested odds. It's easy to do that with many price movements
  2. Too scary to do that; stick with the odds on shots, they should produce a profit. Well all those 1/2 towards evens. I noticed that Cover Name got beat at 30/100 today but I don''t think one should take on odds on shots at that price. Also, sometimes horses that are quoted at 11/8 to 6/4 prices can be backed into odds on in the run up to the race. Hence it could pay to put a lay bet in on the Exchanges in the morning at odds on in the hope that a horse will move to an odds on price and the price will get matched
  3. Yeah, lay all the odds on shots for level stakes 🙂
  4. I can see that if one pushed for much better odds then the results may not be so bad. I should have chosen more 2nd and 3rd favourites in my earlier alternative selections This is just an experiment throughout September; not sure I will continue beyond then 🙂
  5. 13 Selections and 3 winners from the Big 3, however, once again the winners did not pay for the losers. = -7.05 points today = -9.67 points c/fwd My alternative bets fared better today with two winners at better prices and therefore the loss was -3.75 points = C.Fwd -44.45 points
  6. No joy at all today. Many thanks to @calva decoyfor highlighting Outside World in the Naps comp, unfortunately I didn't combine it with another winner. This means a loss of £16.00. My new balance is now £674.84 (Bank £1056.22 38 Races to look at tomorrow; I hope that I find some winners
  7. Big 3 Win Yankee today 1.50 Gd Kings Castle 7/2 2.05 Catt Sfumato 11/4 2.55 Gd sea King 10/3 4.15 win Siyata 5/2 one 50p win Yankee = £5.50 poss return of £304.91 Jockey bookings/Pl inspired tipsters Yankee today (combined) 2.25 Gd Rock Melody (WB) 6/4 2.35 Catt Langholm 9/2 3.30 Gd Outside World (OM) 7/2 4.35 Additional (OM) 11/8 (skinny now) One 50 p win Yankee = £5.50 = Poss return of £222.11 Some singles: 2.15 Leic Eshkaal £1 win at 5/1 1.50 Gd Mr Zee (WB) £1 win at 13/2 1.40 Leic Iconic Look (JD) £1 win at 17/2 £14.00 Total spend so far May spend up to another £6 late Not going well so far. 4.15 Win Siyata £2 win at 4.3 = £6.47 p if it wins
  8. BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS B/FWD = -2.62 POINTS 1.00 Catt Cover Name 2/7 DTR No Alt 2.05 Catt Sfumato 11/4 steady Alt (4) 9/2 2.15 Leic Eshkaal 5/1 (4/1 last night) Alt (9) 11/4 2.45 Leic Saratoga Gold 11/8 Alt (1) 11/8 3.50 Leic Ibiza Rocks Ev DTR Alt (4) 5/2 1.50 Gd Kings Castle 7/2 Alt (4) 11/2 2.25 Gd Rock Melody 6/4 Alt (6) 5/1 2.55 Gd Sea King 10/3 (9/4 last night) Alt (4) 4/1 4.35 Gd Additional 15/8 Alt (4) 11/4 5.07 Gd King Vegas 4/11 Alt No bet 4.15 Win Siyata 5/2 Alt (6) 8/1 5.15 Win Autumn Flight 11/8 Alt (2) 13/8 6.15 Win Flaunt 7/5 Alt (4) 15/8 13/37 races = 35%
  9. RESULTS UPDATE: The Big 3 got 4 winners but out of 13 selections made a small loss of -1.93 This gives a carry forward of - 2.62 points My alternatives selections all lost out of 14 selections, one beaten a neck at 22/1 = -14 points C/Fwd -40.7 points My book bets had two small wins one of £3.50 effective single as a non- runner in a Trixie;. Thanks to @TheBrigadierHaveyoumissedme in his top rated tips section, and Tri[ple Jaye singles bet of £4.20 Rule 4, 25p deduction . This caused a net loss of £10.50. My new balance is £690.84 (Bank £1056.22) 5 meetings with 37 races tomorrow
  10. Very unlucky with Johnny Boom beaten a nose
  11. Today's Trixies & Ins bets Big 3 6.25 Nc Mellow Yellow 11/2 6.55 Nc Claim To Fame 10/3 8.30 Nc Triple Jaye 10/3 + £1.20 ins win bet at 10/3 = ret £5.20 One £1 win trixie = £4 = poss ret £197.14 Total stakes = £5.20 Jockey booking Trixie 1.30 Bri Irish Millions (WB) 11/8 2.00 Bri Mostallium (WB) 2/1 4.55 Newc Margaret Dumont (TM) 3/1 one £1 win Trixie = £4 poss ret £57.12 1.00 Bri Verreaux Eagle (WB) ins bet £2 win at 2/1 Total stakes = £6.00 PL inspired Trixie 300 Bri Goddess Of Fire 5/2 3.10 N Ab Drumlee Watar 2/1 5..25 Nc Haveyoumissedme 5/2 one £1 win Trixe = £4 poss ret £70.00 2.00 Bri Montey's Inn £1 win at 5/1 Total stakes = £5.00 Total stakes all categories = £16.20 4.55 Nc Margaret Dumont £2 win at 5.04 = £7.91 p if it wins = 3rd leg of failed Trixie Total spend now £18.20
  12. BEST OF THE BEST Selections 2.30 Bri Hooves Like Jagger 15/8 DTR 6/4 last night Alt (3) 9/2 4.00 Bri He's Our Star 15/8 DTR steady Alt (3) 10/3 2.50 Perth Do No Wrong 7/4 steady Alt (5) 16/1 4.25 Perth Renegade Arrow 11/8 DTR (4/5 last night) Alt (6) 9/4 2.40 Perth Wagner 4/6 steady Alt (2) 3/1 3.10 N Ab Drumlee Watar DTR 15/8 steady Alt (3) 7/4 3.40 N Ab Right Destination DTR Evens steady Alt (2) 9/4 5.05 Gal Jazzaway 4/6 steady DTR Alt (2) 11/4 (NB 7/1 last night) 6.10 Gal Osker High 7/2 steady Alt (13) 15/2 5.25 Nc Musherif 5/4 steady DTR Alt (8) 13/2 6.25 Nc Mellow Yellow 4/1 (11/4 last night) Alt (1) 11/4 6.55 Nc Claim To Fame 3/1 (4/1 last night) Alt (13) 13/2 7.25 Nc Wild Lion 5/6 steady Alt (1) 7/2 Money for Willard Creek at 7/2 8.30 Nc Triple Jaye 3/1 (15/8 last night) DTR Alt (5) 5/2f was 7/2 last night
  13. RESULTS UPDATE The Big 3 got 2 winners which didn't quite pay fro the 4 losers hence a small loss of 0.87 points. This unfortunately has now created a negative carry forward of =0.69 points I had 1 winner and a second with my alternative bets but this resulted in a loss of -2.75 points = -26.70 c/fwd My book bets produced no winners, interesting that the quirky suggestion of the RP ran well to finish 2nd at 10/1. Anyway - £7.10 on the day. this makes a new balance of £701..34 (Bank £1056.22) 5 meetings and 36 races to sift through for tomorrow. I am also intending to do 3 Trixies and 3 single bets. These will be based upon (1) the big 3 selections (2) Jockey bookings and (3) PL Lounge inspired tips. I hope to run this through to the end of the year. The aim is by regularly looking through these categories is to try and find "added value for selections that will increase the frequency of winners.
  14. BEST OF THE BEST selections B/Fwd = +0.18 points. Alt = -23.95 points 2.40 York Pagan 7/2 Alt (7) 9/1 3.45 York Mistrix 6/4 DTR Alt (2) 11/2 5.20 Yk Emaraty Hero 13/8 Alt (4) 15/2 1.30 Font Writteninthesand 4/6 DTR Alt (1) 9/4 3.55 Perth Guido Reni 13/8 2nd Fav Alt (1) 6/4 4.30 Perth Island Nation 7/4 Alt (7) 13/2 Had £2 to win on Pagan at 7/2 Also 3.35 Font Snug As A Bug £1 win at 9/1 A bit of a weird selection by the Racing Post Spotlight; now trading at a best price of 7/1 Added a few more bets with my top jockeys aboard 4.20 Yk Sophar Sogood (TM) £1 win at 16/1 12.25 Baden San Isidro (OM) £1 win at 16/1 2.15 Baden Passion And Glory £1.10 win at 7/4 1.330 Long Highland Avenue (WB) £1 win at 4/1 Total stakes = £7.10 so far today
  15. 2.40 York Pagan one point win at 4/1 with Betvictor
  16. RESULTS UPDATE The big 3 got 5 winners today, unfortunately the prices created a small loss of - 1.71. Add this to the B/Fwd figure of +1.89 = C/fwd 0.18 No winners at all in my alternative selections so a 13 point loss. Add to B/fwd loss-10.95 = -23.95 C/fwd Just one £2 win book bet today on Wharaan today which lost so my new balance is £708.44 (Bank £1056.22) Only 3 meetings tomorrow one at York with some good class races and two over the jumps. Not too much to go through 🙂
  17. 3.10 Asc Wharaan one point win at 5/2 with Bet365
  18. BEST OF THE BEST selections today 2.35 Asc Bouquet 6/4 Alt (5) 11/2 one point 3.10 Asc Wharaan 5/2 DTR Alt (1) 11/2 1.15 Hd Hafit 10/11 Alt (3) 5/2 1.45 Hd Lord Glitters 7/4 DTR Alt (1) 7/2 2.20 Hd Valley Forge 5/4 Alt (5) 7/2 3.30 Hd Starman 10/11 DTR Alt (7) 7/2) 1.35 Wex Downthecellar 10/11 DTR Alt (1) 6/1 4.30 Wex Glenquinn Castle 2/1 DTR Alt (10) 11/2 1.20 Nav Chestnutter 8/15 DTR Alt (6) 7/2 4.45 Nav Jeff Kidder 5/4 DTR Alt (9) 14/1 1.25 Str Camprond 4/11 DTR Alt NO BET 3.40 Str Hang In There 4/5 DTR Alt (3) 2/1 5.10 Thsk Southern Voyage 13/8 DTR Alt (1) 15/8 6.30 Wolv Loves Me Likearock 11/8 Alt (5) 4/1 Just managed to get £2 win at 4.2 on Wharaan in the 3.10 at Ascot = £6.27 p if it wins 14 selections out of 57 races today 24.5%
  19. Yes, I am, but have logged in anyway as I have AVG security on my PC
  20. RESULTS UPDATE 6 winners for the big 3 but against 13 selections they only made 1.49 points profit = 1.89 points c/fwd My own alternatives only found 3 winners as against 11 selections = a loss of 6.07 points = -10.55 c/Fwd My one bet paid off for £2 with a £7.45 profit. My new balance is £710.44 (Bank £1056.22) Haven't even glimpsed tomorrows runners yet
  21. Well, imo one would need a huge betting bank to continually putting £100 to win on outsiders no matter how good one's rating system is. Anyway, this was not the mainpoint that I was making. I was actually agreeing with Zilzalian that one should choose the higher priced selections from one's selections. But when it comes to staking I was trying to be wary of proportional staking in relation to the odds on offer. If one has a reliable selection method and it throws up selections at e.g 2/1 to say 10/1 then as I have done in the past put £10 on the 2/1 shot and £2 on the 10/1 shot then this may not be right. The reason for this is that when looks at 1000's of results it may well be approximately true that 10/1 shots come up 9% of the time and 2/1 shots come up 33% of the time. However, if one has a 10/1 shot flagged up in a good selection process then because it is not being lumped in all the other 10/1 shots then the frequency of winners could well exceed 9% and thus extra staking other than proportional staking could be made so as to enhance profit. I hope that I have made this clear.
  22. I'm getting a bit fed up with people on here sarcastically insulting me. You can put £100 on a 10/1, 20/1, 33/1, 50/1 or 100/1 shot in the misguided perception that you will win in the end. I'm sorry mate you will lose all your betting bank. Get a grip
  23. 6.22 Down Royal Silent Performance one point win at 3/1 with Bet365
  24. Whilst it may be true that if one looks at all the 10/1 shots over a long period of time then they may show up as 9% winners and all 2/1 shots they may show up as 33% winners the picture could be very different for one using an advanced selection criteria that excludes most 10/1 shots
  25. BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS 3.20 Nc Brazen Bolt 2/1 Alt (7) 8/1 & (10) 9/1 (1/2 point win on each) 4.55 Nc Dusky Lord 5/6 Alt (7) 7/4 & (2) 14/1 1.10 Hd Miramichi 11/4 Alt (2) 3/1 & (3) 9/2 1.45 Hd Virtiginous 1/3 DTR No bet 1.55 Asc Saga 5/6 DTR (3) 16/5 & (4) 18/1 3.05 Asc Love Is Golden 13/8 (1) 11/4 & (4) 5/2 3.45 Dwn R Brostleigh 15/8 DTR (3) 15/8 & (7) 11/4 4.50 Dwn R Snaffles1/2 DTR No Bet 2/5 & 4/11 with some bookies 6.22 Dwn R Silent Performance 7/2 DTR *** Alt (10) 9/2 & (9) 5/1 6.52 Dwn R Dollar Value (5/4) Alt (6) 9/4 & (1) 9/2 6.37 Kilb Nere Rock 6/5 DTR Alt (6) 85/40 & (2) 11/4 5.45 Km Pavlodar 9/4 Alt (6) 9/4 & (4) 10/3 7.15 Km Jumbly 4/5 Alt (2) 2/1 & (3) 12/1 *** In the 6.22 at Down Royal I have had £2 to win on Silent Performance at 4.8 = £7.45. It may be a bit early to write this but I feel that if one can get 3/1plus odds against on these big 3 selections then this could be a profitable bet. Resourceful Man yesterday & Mother Country the day before drifted to 6/1 from my price of 10/3 on the day are examples. I will do this for the rest of September using £2 win stakes. I am becoming more convinced that @Zilzalianis right in as much as, that if one is obtaining a list of selections using the same criteria then back the one(s) at the higher price. I have up to now been cautious in as much as if I were say to back a horse at 2/1, I would put £10 on it to win £20 or if the horse was 10/1 then put £2 to win on it to get the same profit. However, I'm not suggesting that if one say puts £100 to win on their daily selection(s) that they should put the same amount of £100 on a 10/1 shot as a 2/1 shot but what I am trying to get at is that by reducing the stakes proportionately to the same profit, assuming that the market will in the end balance out 33% chances over 9% chances is not necessarily the best way to bet. The fear is that by proportionately reducing one's stake as described above one is wringing out a lot of profit that could have been had if one was a bit bolder and placed higher amounts on the larger priced selections.
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