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The Equaliser

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Everything posted by The Equaliser

  1. Haven't had a fair crack so far today 4.40 Hd If You dare (JF/MJ) £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 if it wins. Will keep looking 4.55 Bev Pop Favourite (KS) £1 win at 25/1 5.00 Ches Khezaana £2.50 win at 10.5 = £23.28 5.35 Ches Heart Of Soul (JC again) £2 win at 16.5 = £30.38 if it wins 5.55 Catt Paddy Power £2.50 win at 10.0 = £22.05 if it wins. Selected more because of Richard Fahey than Tony Hamilton as the jockey Was misled by the RP about Hollie Doyle's winner. Anyway just a few more before I finish for the day 7.15 Sal Kingston Star (HD)£2 win at 21
  2. Squeezed on time today 1.45 Hd Brian The Snail 70p win at 33/1 & Show Me Show Me 30p win at 16/1 2.20 Hd Dubai Station 30p win at 14/1, Ishvara 70p win at 33/1 (Charles Bishop rides Robert Cowell's most favoured horse but I'll swerve it and stick £2 to win on Motagally at 11/1 with Will Buick aboard) 3.30 Hd With Thanks £4 win at 6.8 currently 6.4 (I know I said that I would get my favoured horses matched so as to avoid the bet lapsing but I can't bring myself to take 6.4) Poss £7 staked. Pity I couldn't look at more and will be out most of the day, much to everyone's
  3. 2.20 Hd Ishvara one point win at 40/1 with Betfred
  4. Hmmm. One of my favourites books is called "Against The Crowd" by Alan Potts published in 1995. I must say I have never made any money at all by following the crowd in any way shape or form. My very best wishes to you if you have cracked it. As for favourites that haven't been the subject to media hype I don't believe that these are are created by wise people in the crowds. They are created by bookmakers trying to limit their liabilities. We can all remember recent attempted coups when 33/1 shots have gone off at say 6/4 favourite. Sometimes they work but more often than not if there is
  5. RESULTS UPDATE This should have been a profitable day fro me with two winners. However, because of a non runner Forsee's profit got smashed by about 1/3 on the Exchange (disgraceful) and Dalanijujo did not get matched and the horse went on to win. Overall I am £2.10 down so not a disaster. In future if one of my selections is in the top 3 or possibly under 10.0 I will get a price matched to achieve a £20 profit as long as the concession is not too much. Horses over 10.0 I will continue to hold out for what I feel I should achieve. I feel that I missed out on a few winners again t
  6. 4.10 Yar Selecto (TM) one point win at 11/1 with Bet365
  7. For A Few Dollars More: 3.45 Carl Acquisitor (KS) £3 at 8.0 Currently 7.0 4.10 Yar Selecto (TM) £2 win at 12 = £21.56 if it wins 4.45 Yar Dalanijojo (TM) £3.50 win at 7 Currently 6.6 5.20 Yar Slam Ya Faisal (TM) £2.50 win at 9.2 (8.6) Total poss stakes £22.50
  8. Need more time to look at other possibles but I have backed the following for now: 3.15 Carl Loweswater (PM) £2 win at 13.33 = £24.16 if it wins 4.30 Bri Foresee (RD3) £3 win at 8.2 = £21.17 if it wins 5.00 Bri Alezan (GD5) £4.50 win at 5.6 currently 5.1 5.30 Bri Tomas Daniell (MG3) £2 win at 11.50 currently 9.00 Poss stakes so far £11.50 I like some at Yarmouth but trying to tread carefully as getting value at higher priced odds is tricky 🙂 Hopefully back later
  9. Good for you. I have found it very hard to steer clear of the favourites in the past. Now I am trying to look beyond them and their nearest rivals to get some real value out of backing longer priced horses. I believe that the mains sports media whether it be the Racing Post or At The Races lead us all by the hand to conclude that races will be won by the market leaders. This is obviously a "bookies" game, although I haven't done any analysis to prove that by backing the top selections which e.g. take up over 50% of the market share in each race actually produces a loss over time. By n
  10. RESULTS UPDATE It all worked at right on the night. Laid out £32.20 and got back £49.33, therefore £17.13 net profit on the day. I was a bit annoyed that I got talked out of backing Euchen Glen in the 7.25 at Sandown ridden by Paul Mulrennan for Jim Goldie which won st 20/1. Paul has had a couple of winners for this trainer recently but all the media narrative put me off. I only needed a £1 on it 20/1 to make my profit. Stupid!!! My new balance is £962.33 (Bank £1056.22). Five UK flat meetings tomorrow and one over the jumps. I feel tired just thinking about looking through
  11. No luck so far. 8.50 Carl 8.50 Carl Inside Intel £2 win at 17 (um at 13.5 so far) Sandown selections 5.45 Sunsupgunsup (GD5) £3 win at 8.4 6.15 Ebro River £4.50 win at 5.6 (um 5.2) 6.50 Lismore (JS) £2 win at 12.5 = £22.54 if wins 8.30 Final Watch (HD) £2.50 at 9.4 = £18.63 & Buxted Too (WB) £2.50 win at 9.71 = £18.90 if it wins Will tot up total stakes later
  12. Adding in a couple at Worcester 4.15 Force Ten (BF/PN) £3.20 at 7.4 = £20.07 profit if it wins 4.45 High Change (STD/Doc) £4.50 win at 5.7 = £20.73 profit if it wins
  13. 4.05 Rip Julie Johnston one point win at 22/1 with Bet365
  14. Only looked at Ripon so far 1.55 Purple Bling (PH) £3 win at 8.2 = £21.17 profit if it wins 3.05 Carausius (TM) £3 win at 8.2 (um at 7.4) Not willing to risk more on this one and will let it go if price isn't matched 4.05 Julie Johnston £2 win at 26. The horse has to bounce back. Could have put £1 on it at 16/1' 18/1 in other places. Looks too skinny at that price. As its an outsider, hopefully the price will be matched. Will check later and perhaps take a lesser price of 20/1 for a £1 if available Poss stakes £8 so far. Pity I couldn't check out more races before gett
  15. Many thanks. Is it still the case that you do the tips Monday to Thursday and someone else does it Fri - Sun? Just thought this may be significant for followers to note
  16. RESULTS UPDATE One horse beaten by a neck and three others placed. Placed bets would have just about broken even on their own and not recovered win stakes so great care and skill needed to recover win stakes when only four out of eleven get placed. May be OK if I can get much better odds on the placed bets. One winner would have got me to B/E so not a bad effort. Will continue this strategy tomorrow and through to the end of the month and beyond. A net loss of £20.60 means a balance of £945.20 c/fwd (Bank £1,056.22) Four flat meetings and one over the jumps tomorrow in the U
  17. 7.20 Wolv Equisential one point win at 12/1 with Betfair
  18. I'm glad I did no work on the Beverley races as the meeting has been abandoned. Buoyed up with enthusiasm I have looked at Hamilton and Wolverhampton so far today. Not analysed Warwick but the trouble with the jumps is a lot of short priced favourites with the top jockeys aboard. May not bother with it. 2.40 Ham Lady Nectar (JF) £3.20 win at 7.6 = £20.70 profit if it wins 3.10 Ham G For Gabriel £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 profit if it wins 4.10 Ham Retirment Beckons £2 win at 14/1 4.40 Ham Favourite Niece £2 win at 21 = £39.20 if it wins 5.10 Ham Auckland Lodge £2 win at
  19. SUCCESS 🙂 Three winners from seven so my new approach paid off at first time of asking. I think it was Aiden O'Briens winner in the Irish 1,000 Guineas that has convinced me that one must take account of all runners in a race rather than just the favourite. As Mark Johnstone once said "if you don't think that your second string horse has a chance of winning then leave it at home". I'm fed up with just considering the top three in the betting market and getting it wrong all too often. Instead I will work backwards in the market with top jockeys and apprentices that are riding horses th
  20. 8.35 Lin Shamshon one point win at 10/1 with Bet365
  21. Can't see the thread started for today so will post here Switched to backing my top jockeys and apprentices at decent prices with small stakes. Let's see how this goes 2.20 Muss House Of Kings (LE) £1 win at 20/1 2.55 Muss God Of Dreams (JF) £2.65 win at 8.8 5.35 Lin Pride Of England (AK) £4.50 at 5.7 6.05 Lin Ebnzaidon (WB) £2 win at 13.5 6.35 Lin Ironside (WB) £2 win at 12.5 7.05 Lin Bicep (HD) £2 win at 14 8.35 Lin Shamshon £2 win at 11.53 Total stakes £16.15 with a possible return of over £140 if they all win, haha Haven't looked at Newcas
  22. 3.40 Bri Arena Del Tiempo one point win at 80/1 with Betvictor
  23. Probably best to wait on the Betfair betting exchange for later on, or put in a small bet at say 100/1 to see if it gets matched (currently 44 at Ballinrobe. Outsiders usually drift a lot on the exchange so it easy to protect your bank
  24. RESULTS UPDATE I should have guessed that the Irish would take the 1,000 guineas and, who better than Aiden O'Brien with the unfavoured horse winning. His son's hot pot favourite floundered despite all the glowing ratings of Timeform and the Racing Post. The Maestro of Ballydoyle outsmarted them all. I didn't get my bet matchced on Barden Bella which was just as well as it lost. This means that I lost £12 on the day. My new balance is £909.15 (Bank £1056.22) The best top jockeys are at Wolverhampton tomorrow so I should find some scraps eleswhere
  25. 3.15 Curragh Fev Rover £5.50 at 5.5 = £21.81 profit if it wins. Has winning form on soft. I have also placed £2.50 to win on Pretty Gorgeous at 3.2 to break even if the hot pot goes and wins 3.05 Fak. Trying to get £3.30 on Barden Bella at 7.0. Was at 6.4 and a non-runner given the market an excuse to shorten this to 5.3. I'll let it win at a shorter price if not matched 5.10 Nott Idillico £4 win at 6.2 = £20.38 if it wins Poss stakes £15. 30 Don't fancy anything else at Nottingham or the Curragh but may look at later races at Fakenham if I get the chance
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