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The Equaliser

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Everything posted by The Equaliser

  1. RESULTS UPDATE I didn't fare too bad. On the day I lost £4.26. this is because Paul Hanagan won on Prison Break for me. Unfortunately for me I retrieved £8 on matched bets where the selections lost but sacrificed £17.20 on Prison Break so I worse off by £9.20! I felt confident about backing more horses but not enough of the losers got matched to pay for the loss on my winner. There is a place for the in running lay bets, I feel. This is ironically best on the outsiders. The way to do it is to find and outsider that one feels will run well. Next check with oddschecker about the be
  2. Don't I know it!! I just don't know how I missed Classy Dame in the 3.45. I backed Menai Bridge and although my lay bet got matched my heart sank when I saw that Tom had done the business on his ride. Racing Post narrative: "Classy Dame After two Class 6 wins she has struggled off higher marks in a pair of Class 5s". Just goes to show that the right jockey on the right horse produced by the right trainer makes a mockery of what the form experts say. Frankie Dettorie said recently that Ryan Moore was the best jockey around at the moment but I reckon that Tom Marquand is up there with him.
  3. 1.45 Red Lochnaver (BC/WH combi) one point win at 20/1 with Bet365
  4. A bold attempt at Leicester and Redcar with reduced profit if in-running prices gets matched and my selections win. The idea is to save on stakes if the selection runs well, gets matched but doesn't win. I do realise that for every winner I sacrifice say 50% profit then I need to retrieve more money on my losers to compensate but I think that this is worth a go 1.25 Leic Primo (JD) £3.70 win at 6.8 = £10.15 profit @ 4.0 I/R 2.00 Leic Neptune Legend (JD) £4 win at 6.2 = £10.58 @ 3.5 I/R 2.35 Leic Sadies Day (HD) £2 win at 11.5 = £12.35 p @ 5.2 I/R 3.45 Leic Menai Bridge
  5. RESULTS UPDATE A bit choked that Tom Marquand beat Spoof but that's racing for you. Not a hint of a chance for the Tony Carroll horse in the racing press. Anyway I made a net profit on the day of £14.49 by limiting my bets after Tom Marquand won for me on Indian Creek. My new balance is now £944.12 (Bank £1056.22) From tomorrow I will be experimenting a little with my in-running lay bets so as to protect my stakes if my selections runs well without winning. I will be prepared to sacrifice between 50% & 33% profit should my selections go on to win. If this is successful I can
  6. Well, it's typical that when I backed a real player with Richard Kingscote aboard along comes Tom Marquand (my favourite jockey) and takes the spoils with Rose Hip at 12/1
  7. Nice winner with Indian Creek. Luckily it did get matched so I am in good profit atm. Also, Hollie's horse got matched so I got my £2 stake money back although she lost the race. I have stuck with Windsor and just had a couple more bets so as to ensure a profit on the day 3.20 Spoof (RK) £3 win at 8.0 = £20.58 Profit if it wins 5.37 Lorca (OM). I have put in £2 win at 17.00 It is currently 11.5 but I am hoping that its price will drift on the Exchange. If it does and it gets matched I will put in another lay bet so as to ensure a £20 profit if it wins or get my stake money
  8. Up late today and didn't do much work last night as I was tired Looking at Windsor mainly today 1.35 Indian Creek (TM) £2 win at 11.5 currently 10.5, hopefully it will get matched as it is unfancied 2.10 Bluebell Way (HD) £2 win at 15.5 and have put in an In runnnnig lay bet for £2 at 5.2= £20.19 if it wins & retrieve my stake if it gets matched and loses 5.02 McCann The Man (MC5) 35p win at 66/1 = £23 .45 if it wins 4.05 Red Khabib 75p win at 40/1. Put in an in-running lay bet £2 at 6.0 = £10.50 Liability if matched and wins. Still get £20.25 profit if it runs a
  9. 4.05 Red Khabib (PH) one point win at 40/1 with Betfair Looked at 7 races to choose the best outsider of the day and the Paul Hanagan horse looks to be my best chance. Wouldn't win the comp at that price unless its price drifts dramatically
  10. RESULTS UPDATE I could really have done with Pistol Whipped not being beaten by a nose today. One of the reasons for choosing top jockeys is so that they are the ones who wins by a nose! Anyway. can't change what's happened. It did make me think though that maybe when I am considering other horses than the market front runners that I should also take account of the merits of other "players" in the race rather than just my top jockeys and apprentices. It would seem that this may be a lot more time consuming so I will have to think my way around it. Can't spend too long looking at one r
  11. Haha, the price got so smashed that I have laid it off for a 50% profit if it wins and now have a risk free bet courtesy of Bet365
  12. 5.25 Kel Wadacre Monika one point win at 8/1 with Bet365
  13. Some bets today 3.42 Kel Skiddaw Tara (BH) £1.30 win at 16/1 = £22.10 if it wins 5.25 Kel Wadacre Monika (BH) £2.00 win at 10/1 = £20 profit if it wins 3.25 Uttx Flame Of Passion (JJ'oN) 80p win a 25/1 = £20 profit if it wins 3.57 Uttx Pistol Whipped (NdB) £3.50 at 7.4 = £21.95 if it wins 5.42 Uttx Kingofthecotswolds (STD) £1 win at 20/1 Total stakes = £8.60 Incidentally anyone interested in the 4.52 Hunters Chase at Kelso today could well do themselves a favour by reading @Darran write-up under the head of "Hunter Chases" . He is always a good read
  14. Managed to get 5/1 for this on Bet365. Many thanks
  15. RESULTS UPDATE No winners today so a complete wash out = £22 loss on the day. Thank goodness I didn't back them each way, I would have doubled my losses. My new balance is £938.23 (Bank £1056.22). Lots of favourites went in today so I don't feel bad about it all. Should have backed Hollie Doyle's winner and not been put off. All UK racing over the jumps tomorrow and it is harder for me to spot the top/apprentice jockeys riding horses at decent odds. I will have a peak tonight.
  16. Haven't had a fair crack so far today 4.40 Hd If You dare (JF/MJ) £2 win at 11.5 = £20.58 if it wins. Will keep looking 4.55 Bev Pop Favourite (KS) £1 win at 25/1 5.00 Ches Khezaana £2.50 win at 10.5 = £23.28 5.35 Ches Heart Of Soul (JC again) £2 win at 16.5 = £30.38 if it wins 5.55 Catt Paddy Power £2.50 win at 10.0 = £22.05 if it wins. Selected more because of Richard Fahey than Tony Hamilton as the jockey Was misled by the RP about Hollie Doyle's winner. Anyway just a few more before I finish for the day 7.15 Sal Kingston Star (HD)£2 win at 21
  17. Squeezed on time today 1.45 Hd Brian The Snail 70p win at 33/1 & Show Me Show Me 30p win at 16/1 2.20 Hd Dubai Station 30p win at 14/1, Ishvara 70p win at 33/1 (Charles Bishop rides Robert Cowell's most favoured horse but I'll swerve it and stick £2 to win on Motagally at 11/1 with Will Buick aboard) 3.30 Hd With Thanks £4 win at 6.8 currently 6.4 (I know I said that I would get my favoured horses matched so as to avoid the bet lapsing but I can't bring myself to take 6.4) Poss £7 staked. Pity I couldn't look at more and will be out most of the day, much to everyone's
  18. 2.20 Hd Ishvara one point win at 40/1 with Betfred
  19. Hmmm. One of my favourites books is called "Against The Crowd" by Alan Potts published in 1995. I must say I have never made any money at all by following the crowd in any way shape or form. My very best wishes to you if you have cracked it. As for favourites that haven't been the subject to media hype I don't believe that these are are created by wise people in the crowds. They are created by bookmakers trying to limit their liabilities. We can all remember recent attempted coups when 33/1 shots have gone off at say 6/4 favourite. Sometimes they work but more often than not if there is
  20. RESULTS UPDATE This should have been a profitable day fro me with two winners. However, because of a non runner Forsee's profit got smashed by about 1/3 on the Exchange (disgraceful) and Dalanijujo did not get matched and the horse went on to win. Overall I am £2.10 down so not a disaster. In future if one of my selections is in the top 3 or possibly under 10.0 I will get a price matched to achieve a £20 profit as long as the concession is not too much. Horses over 10.0 I will continue to hold out for what I feel I should achieve. I feel that I missed out on a few winners again t
  21. 4.10 Yar Selecto (TM) one point win at 11/1 with Bet365
  22. For A Few Dollars More: 3.45 Carl Acquisitor (KS) £3 at 8.0 Currently 7.0 4.10 Yar Selecto (TM) £2 win at 12 = £21.56 if it wins 4.45 Yar Dalanijojo (TM) £3.50 win at 7 Currently 6.6 5.20 Yar Slam Ya Faisal (TM) £2.50 win at 9.2 (8.6) Total poss stakes £22.50
  23. Need more time to look at other possibles but I have backed the following for now: 3.15 Carl Loweswater (PM) £2 win at 13.33 = £24.16 if it wins 4.30 Bri Foresee (RD3) £3 win at 8.2 = £21.17 if it wins 5.00 Bri Alezan (GD5) £4.50 win at 5.6 currently 5.1 5.30 Bri Tomas Daniell (MG3) £2 win at 11.50 currently 9.00 Poss stakes so far £11.50 I like some at Yarmouth but trying to tread carefully as getting value at higher priced odds is tricky 🙂 Hopefully back later
  24. Good for you. I have found it very hard to steer clear of the favourites in the past. Now I am trying to look beyond them and their nearest rivals to get some real value out of backing longer priced horses. I believe that the mains sports media whether it be the Racing Post or At The Races lead us all by the hand to conclude that races will be won by the market leaders. This is obviously a "bookies" game, although I haven't done any analysis to prove that by backing the top selections which e.g. take up over 50% of the market share in each race actually produces a loss over time. By n
  25. RESULTS UPDATE It all worked at right on the night. Laid out £32.20 and got back £49.33, therefore £17.13 net profit on the day. I was a bit annoyed that I got talked out of backing Euchen Glen in the 7.25 at Sandown ridden by Paul Mulrennan for Jim Goldie which won st 20/1. Paul has had a couple of winners for this trainer recently but all the media narrative put me off. I only needed a £1 on it 20/1 to make my profit. Stupid!!! My new balance is £962.33 (Bank £1056.22). Five UK flat meetings tomorrow and one over the jumps. I feel tired just thinking about looking through
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