Smiles Tennis
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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8 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said:
She's falling apart in the third set so not happening with this one today lol
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IN PLAY
EASTBOURNE
Backed Parmentier vs Hercog - 4.4 Betfair - will look to trade.
Hercog when sub 1.5 odds and losing the first set is 5-10. Parmentier already broken Hercog twice and 1.26 is too short when looking at the history so taking a back of Parmentier and look to trade out.
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11 hours ago, aphro said:
Hello, guys!
Let me just add 5 cents into the discussion: while developing value radar i've took into consideration 100 000 matches and the outcome was that WTA matches are non profit at all. And also i was looking some video on youtube about backing the server trading strategy (on betfair) and the guy who explained it also told to use only ATP matches.
I disagree. I make nice profits and bet 99% on WTA.
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Mladenovic to bt Vekic - 2.36 Betfair
Indoors Mladenovic has a great record. Vekic had some crap losses as fave this year and I think the odds should be closer than this.
Going for what I think is a bit of value in the price.
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:
Somehow, Bertens losing against Rus would be the perfect random WTA result to seal the deal for me for the week
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I backed her a break down early on then basically face palmed myself as she went 1-5 down. I thought i had picked that short price fave to get smashed in straight sets lol
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8 hours ago, darko08 said:
Rybarikova losing 5-1 the first set, looks like she doesn't want to stay in Nottingham (rainning everyday). I'm not watching the match, anybody is watching it?
Mate in SA had a stream. Said she was having her temperature taken by the doctor at the end of the set before retiring so she must be ill.
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22 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
Think that I'll just take a back seat this week, the GS was good, now back to good old struggles
. And, I mean, we don't even know which surface they're going to play on 
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I haven't touched Nottingham yet for that reason lol
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WTA Hertogenbosch
Flipkens to beat Tsurenko - 1.9 Betfair
Both players matches have a very high strike rate of going with the fave for the year. Flipkens is better on grass, Tsurenko not in great recent form and although she served very well against Pliskova, a return to the mean is on the cards for me and Flipkens can cause her problems.
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5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Kiki Bertens to win WTA Hertogenbosch at 3.40 with Bet365
I haven't had a tournament bet for quite some time now, but this is one that I don't mind taking at all. Bertens was among the favorites for the French Open, but she had some sort of a panic attack against Kuzmova and retired. Before that, she was beating just about everyone with her new coach and she must be tremendously motivated after the French Open debacle. The rest of the field isn't particularly strong either and this is a home tournament for her, so I definitely like her chances.
She had a virus. She was up in the night being sick. Tried to start the match but just said she had no energy so had to retire.
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WTA Bol Final
Sorribes Tormo to beat Zidansek - 2.12 Betfair
Zidansek is the better player but this week her serving has been crap. She was 0-4 down in the final set last time out and luckily Juvan choked and gifted her the match. Anyone else would have probably beat her but Juvan has a habit of always losing third sets.
She's been on the court for a couple of hours longer than Sorribes Tormo who has breezed her last two matches, facing only 3 break points in total from them.
She's playing well this week and although she doesn't have big weapons, if Zidansek gives plenty of 0-15 or 0-30 moments on her serve like she has done, Tormo can grab enough breaks to take it.
It will be close, but I would make Sorribes Tormo the slight fave after looking at all the factors, so going with the Spaniard to win here.
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Ruse to beat Cepelova - 1.86 Betfair
Will type reason when not holding the baby lol
EDIT: reasoning.
Ruse with the better grass record and she just plays more on the surface. Cepelova played just one match on grass last year and lost in the qualies for Wimbledon. Cepelova has lost 7 of her last 9 matches and one of those wins was a retirement.
Ruse had some decent enough results on grass last year and lost to Rybarikova and pushed Aga hard at Wimbledon before losing 5-7 in the third. Ruse has also reached a few lower level SF and a QF recently, so is playing fairly well and should be confident with a bit of form behind her.
I think she should be shorter than 1.86 so on it. Now back to baby holding. Good luck guys!
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Vondrousova to beat Barty - 2.52 with Betfair
Barty had some nervous moments in the last match, leading 5-0 and losing the first set and although she's a good fighter, she will no doubt have some more worries in the final.
Vondrousova has had less wobbles, hasn't dropped a set against tough players and I think she should be shorter than 2.52.
I'm on.
- CzechPunter, i1_principe and four-leaf
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6 hours ago, four-leaf said:
Marius Copil to beat Dan Evans at 2.63 with Pinnacle
I've checked Dans grass statistics and he's 14-11 on grass on the challenger tour. Marius is 12-5 on grass on the challenger tour. They have met once before in 2016 and it's was on grass in Surbiton and Marius won easily in straight sets. Marius haven't droped a set all week and toyed with Matt Ebden yesterday. He's better than Dan on grass and should have more than a decent chance of winning this matchup again.
I've got Evans as 17-12 in challengers on the grass, going all the way back to 2007, all Nottingham, Surbiton and two Manchester matches.
And in their first meeting Evans took 0/5 break points. He needs to do better than that to win. I've attached a spreadsheet screenshot of his grass results for you.
Copil is also a more impressive 15-5 on grass court challengers. I've added his results for you too.
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6 minutes ago, notanotherdonkey said:
I know I never mentioned it but I backed Vondrosouva at the start At 40-1 so getting to the final it is a 20-1 to be in the final,what with my darts bet winning yesterday all is looking good.I might have a saver on the set match betting in the final as they are better odds than backing a player to win the match.GoodLuck.
Good shout. Yeah I would cover that bet with some bets on the final, win either way then!
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17 minutes ago, Stegosaurus said:
Behave - there was no way to predict who would win either match today, as we saw with how they both panned out. Both matches could have gone either way, and both nearly went the opposite way to what they did.
Maybe there's no way for YOU to predict. Like I said I usually do OK picking winners unless it's set betting where I'm crap.
If I was to choose the set betting picks today I would have picked Barty 2-0 and Vondrousova 2-1 so would have lost them both. Now I stick to just match odds nearly all the time. Pic attached. I don't just make things up.
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It's the reason I love WTA. I seem to have a nack of usually picking the winners, unless i'm set betting. Then I'm terrible lol.
Managed to back both winners today, I had a feeling one of the underdogs would get through but thought Vondrousova would be the more likely.
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Halep to beat Anisimova 2-0 - 1.66 Betfair
Anisimova is a future star. Halep is an elite level player now. There's a chance that Anisimova could keep it tight and take a set but I think it's more likely that Halep will school her. After the rain delay there is less time to rest up so she will want this over quickly and won't mess about.
Keys v Barty - Number of sets? Three - 2.44 Betfair
Barty is the better player but she doesn't usually run away with things on clay. Keys steps it up for the slams and is one of the most consistent players for reaching later rounds. I thought about backing Keys but Barty could still win this. More value for me in backing three sets.
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Hsieh to bt Petkovic - 1.75 leaving unmatched for in play on Betfair
Hsieh is reliable enough as a fave, especially on clay. Petkovic is 1-6 as a dog this year and 0-3 on clay. She's lost 6 of the last 7 with the only win coming against Ostapenko who is as good as my nan at the moment.
Risk of this not being matched if she breaks early but I think it might take a few games to settle down so trying to nick some extra value.
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Cirstea to bt Bolsova 1.79 Betfair.
Bolsova won 4 on the trot but Vera was the only top 100 player and she is crap now. Before that she lost in three to Bains (#242) after winning the first set 6-0. She is 2-2 in main draw matches on the tour, most of her experience is still down at ITF level. Her two wins coming against Vera last time out and Di Lorenzo (#167).
Cirstea has been playing at this event for over ten years. She won as an underdog last time out against Juvan and reached the SF in Nurnberg, losing to Putintseva. Before that she lost to Garcia in Madrid.
In the last 12 months against players ranked 100 or below Cirstea is 6-0 on clay. Nice price for me here.
Anisimova to bt Sabalenka - 2.16 Betfair.
Anisimova won in Bogota but hasn't been as great since. Apart from the defeat to Kostyuk in Madrid her matches have gone as expected.
Sabalenka has been awful for a while. She had a few wins in Strasbourg but nothing amazing.
She's 4-4 on clay as a fave this year, she's underperforming compared to market opinion. Anisimova already beat her on fave hardcourt this year.
She plays nearly twice the amount of her tennis on clay compared to Sabalenka (33% to 19%) and I make this more a 50/50 match so going with the odds against.
Swiatek to bt Wang - 1.7 Betfair
Swiatek ranked higher on clay (50 to 87 for Wang), Wang plays just 9% of her tennis on clay compared to 60% for Swiatek. Swiatek reached the Lugano final recently and is 8-2 on clay this year.
Wang has lost 4 of her last 6 matches. She's 4-5 on clay this year. I don't think she can cause an upset here.
- Foxstar, four-leaf and CzechPunter
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Konta to beat Davis 2-0 - 1.68 on Betfair.
Davis is playing lots on clay but the quality just isn't there. Where Konta is reaching the Rome final, Davis is reaching the Bonita Springs Final where she didn't meet anyone in the top 150.
Davis is 1-17 against the current top 50.
Now, Konta is in form with reaching the Rome final. As a sub 1.4 fave she's 14-1 and her last 23 matches as a sub 1.4 fave have all been straight sets.
Konta to hopefully blow her off the court in straight sets.
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37 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
I'm not really willing to go against Mladenovic in France at such odds myself, but good luck if you bite.
She's got a record of 10-17 when playing in France as the underdog. This drops to 6-14 on clay. If you squeeze it to when she's between odds 2.00 and 3.00 then she's 4-7. About the right price. I think she's the right price but I think Martic will edge it. Good luck if you get involved!
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Martic to beat Mladenovic 2-1 - 4.8 with Betfair.
Both decent and both in form. Martic only lost to Sloane and Woz on clay since Miami, going 13-2 along the way, with a win over Mladenovic in that run.
Mladenovic also on a good run, losing to Sakkari, Kvitova, Martic and Halep on the clay. Martic slightly edges it as the odds show, and with a clay ranking of #41 compared to #174 for Mladenovic, the odds on a close Martic win are decent for me.
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Kudermetova to beat Diyas - 1.61 with Betfair
Diyas not really playing on clay with recent matches coming on hardcourt and carpet. She is 3-15 against the current top 100 on clay going back five years. Some value in Kudermetova.
Kudermetova plays 30% on clay compared to 18% for Diyas with similar rankings for the surface. Kudermetova played 15 matches on clay this year already (9-6) compared to the one match for Diyas.
Tennis Tips - June 24 - June 30
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Eastbourne.
Cornet to bt Jabeur - 1.96 Betfair
Jabeur is very inconsistent, injured and unfit most of the time. She had a great win against Konta and hit some cracking winners but she will regress to her mean today against an inform Cornet who has won 4/5 last matches on grass including beating Svitolina.
Halep to bt Kerber - 1.96 Betfair
Halep motivated to do well on grass. Her coach said at the start of the year that Wimbledon was a target. She will want as much grass play as possible. Kerber had the SF run in Mallorca and after two easy opponents here so far she might want to rest up before Wimbledon against a determined Halep.