Smiles Tennis
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Posts posted by Smiles Tennis
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Zidansek an early break down against Stefanini so backing at 1.26
Purely taking advantage of a slow start I think. She has already broken back by the time I have written this.
Now cleared my liability at 1.05.
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Early double break by Jabeur and I'm out.
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Laying Sorribes Tormo @1.47 against Jabeur.
Jabeur hasn't played for a while since losing to Stephens in Miami. She likes the clay though and is 111-44 on it. When starting as the dog, Jabeur's last five defeats have been against Stephens, Svitolina, CSN, Kasatkina, and Vekic.
Sorribes Tormo isn't as good as that list. Tormo won in three sets against Arruabarrena in Madrid before losing to Osaka but lost to Petkovic and Lepchenko the last two times out before that.
Jabeur leads the h2h 3-1 although they've played only once since 2018 and that was on grass.
It all depends on how rusty Jabeur is but she is no stranger to the dirt and will surely have been practising on it before today's match.
Starting with the lay as I don't think Sorribes Tormo will break early and run away with it. I will try to green up after a break or if Jabeur is starting brightly maybe after the first set. I will watch and evaluate.
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I tried to clear some of my liability early in the second set at 1.17 but she was sitting just above that. Then she was broken.
I sat and waited. A little bit nervy when Sloane had three set points but she fought back and saved them all.
Next time she came that low after breaking Stephens I got to clear some of the risk and was happy to sit out the rest.
As I mentioned earlier her record at these odds is great, she performs better than the market gives her credit for. A nice profit at the end.
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And Liu retired just after so that was a nice stroke of luck. It's always crap to be on the wrong side of a retirement. I rode it this time.
In profit so far today. Have a bit of running about to do now but might be back about later. Hopefully for Bertens match.
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I put my thoughts about Osuigwe in the tennis tips thread. I thought she would win but wanted to get a slightly higher price (maybe 1.5-1.6) in play. After Voegele had finished I swapped over and she was 1.74, a set down but 3-0 up in the second so jumped on.
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I will continue posting here with some of the trades I am doing. Just for interest, maybe some discussion about things I do wrong and someone can teach me to be better.
I love a stat. I tend to use stats more than just opinion because so often my opinion is wrong lol.
Voegele v Haddad Maia
Haddad Maia won the first set but was down a break in the second. Despite this, her odds were still about 1.53 which was close to SP.
I checked my stats for Voegele. As the underdog, after losing the first set she is 0-16 going back just over a year. 1.53 a set up is value to me so got involved.
Haddad Maia is 40-11 when fave and winning the first set as well so should be lower than 1.53.
But this was a value bet that lost. I was actually a witness to Voegele doing the unthinkable and pulling it back to win!
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Halep to beat Bencic - 1.38 on Betfair
Halep 17-1 in the last 12 months on clay, losing only in Rome final to Svitolina. She's on fire this week.
Bencic did well to beat Osaka but Osaka is still finding her game on clay. Bencic already lost to Martic and Lottner in the last few weeks.
Bencic is 3-7 on clay as underdog. The Osaka win was one win, with the other two coming way back in 2014.
I can't see her beating Halep here. I was tempted to get a bigger price in play but could also see this being a 6-2 6-3 easy win so didn't want to risk missing out.
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A basically level day yesterday. As I thought with Bertens she didn't drift enough to match at 2.7 so happy to have dropped and taken SP. I will be focusing on just WTA now like I have done in more successful times in the past.
I will post most picks and opinions in the tennis tips now instead of updating this spreadsheet all the time.
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8 hours ago, four-leaf said:
What do you think about Claire Lius chances in Bonita Springs? She's facing highflying Whitney Osuigwe but there is a rainbreak in Bonita Springs right now but Claire has met Whitney in Miami round 1 last season and Claire beat her by 6-3 6-1. But that was when Whitney was 15 and about to turn 16. Now Whitney is 17 and already higher ranked than Claire ever has been after Whitneys recent success.
I think Osuigwe will take this. She's 16-3 on clay when starting as favourite. She's also 12-2 this year on the dirt.
Liu is 2-3 on clay this year and has been fave for all of her matches. All three defeats came to players ranked 100 or 200 places below her. So with her losing as fave it would be hard to back her as an underdog. She is 2-10 when not the fave with both those wins coming on the hardcourt.
On the upside for you @four-leaf, if you haven't backed her yet she is now 3.05 on Betfair. I will be on Osuigwe for this though I will try to get 1.5 in-play.
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8 hours ago, Torque said:
@Tennis Picks From what I've read it looks as though what you're doing is based on lots of historical data. With that in mind, I'm sure you know that 13 losers out of 16 bets means about as much as 13 winners out of 16 bets. Hypothetically of course, your ATP picks could be on the wrong side of variance at the same time as your WTA picks are on the right side. Good luck with what you're doing anyway - it's an interesting premise
Yes, it's a very small sample but more I mentioned it because it's been the same for years. I have had breaks from betting and trading over time, mostly due to lack of discipline and I have always had my best results with WTA.
That it came up again could be pure short term variance, but it keeps me thinking to all the times in the past.
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2 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
I like that the former ATP player Raemon Sluiter is coaching Kiki Bertens. He was also very good on grass so he might give Kiki some good results on grass this season to. Anyways tonight is Kikis night by the looks of things. Good pick @Tennis Picks
Thanks, I seem to have much better results with WTA than the mens. For my system thread, 13 of the last 16 losers were ATP. It's always been my weak point. Time to focus on WTA more again I think.
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1 hour ago, kuklachert said:
Sorry in advance for eventual offtopic, apparently I'm not able to send private messages due to not having posted on public forums yet.
I'm a lurker here and currently testing statistical models similar to the "value radar", but they're not yet good enough for me to allow myself posting reliable picks. I'd like to exchange a couple of ideas about model-based predictions with those of you who use these methods to pick bets. So I'd like to make myself visible in this post to encourage aphro and other model-supported gamblers (Tennis Picks too?) to start an idea exchange via PM or possibly a separate forum topic with more technical stuff that wouldn't be as interesting to those of you that base their predictions on watching tennis rather than statistical modeling.
Hope I get a bit of feedback here.
Sounds interesting but I have very little time. I run a business and have a young baby on top of trying to do these tennis picks already. I would say start a thread, others might have some input then and I will read and contribute when I can.
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After missing the winners today that didn't drift enough, I will be trying to go with pre-match prices and they do come as value anyway. As @liero1 asked and I said that I wanted the extra value but maybe I am missing out on some winners by trying to get the extra.
Changing Bertens to taking current price, 2.28 on Betfair.
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Kiki Bertens to bt Petra Kvitova @2.28 with Betfair.
Bertens over-performs when an average of these odds, going 18-15 including winning 5 of the last 6 (although this does include a WO against Muguruza).
At these odds, Bertens hasn't lost in straight sets since losing to Coco in IW over three years ago.
Similarly, Kvitova underperforms at her odds, going 14-14. She's also lost three of her last four when around these odds, losing to Barty, Osaka and Svitolina.
My other system has Bertens to back in play but I might stop doing in play and taking pre-match bets as they missed four winners today because they didn't drift enough. Bertens to take this.
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More picks
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More picks
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Updated morning selections:
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Early Challenger events. All bets to placed at odds listed, either in play or before the start to be matched in play.
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-4.1 pts yesterday. I think it's the law that when you increase stakes you have to lose on the first day lol.
Since 4th May: +14.86 pts
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Last two selections for today.
0.2pts profit so far today. Bit lower than the last few days but a few matches left.
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More picks from the Bencic match down.
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I take a small spread, rather than just being 2.5.
Tennis Betting System
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted · Edited by Tennis Picks
Anisimova v Potapova
Anisimova had a great win in Bogota going three sets nearly every match and against Kostyuk in Madrid where she lost. She was very short odds for most of those three-setters in Bogota.
She underperforms (5-6) at these odds but most were from years ago where the young upcoming star always gets overhyped and there are not many matches to look at anyway.
Potapova isn't scared of banging out some three-set matches either, also beating Sevastova recently as a big underdog. She hasn't been very consistent recently.
Anisimova has the better record on clay, she has the recent win in Bogota but she still makes things hard for herself.
Starting with a lay of Anisimova @1.58 on Betfair.