blueboy199

This is likely to be my last update before the entries are announced next Tuesday. For this update I have just made a list of horses that there are updates on.
Secret Investor - Qualified for Cheltenham with a fairly routine success at Kelso last week which gave him one month before this race. Paul Nicholls has been bullish about the chances of some in this race in the past, but everything I have read makes me think he has no more than an outside chance. In the Racing Post on Tuesday he said the owner had always wanted a runner in the race so that is why they have got him qualified. Neither win has got to the bottom of the ability that he currently has, but I can't say he makes much appeal at 8/1.
Billaway - Landed the Naas hunter chase for the 4 year running a couple of weeks ago although in typical Billaway style he wasn't overly impressive. He made one really bad mistake and hit his usual flat spot. Patrick said after the race though that he always knew he was going to win and I think he had plenty up his sleeve come the line. He was pushed out which didn't surprise me and Bet365 are still a stand out 10/1 which I can understand will hold e/w appeal to many. I do think he will improve for the Naas run and that he will run well again at Cheltenham, but it might be a tough ask for him to win the race again.
Famous Clermont - Put in a much better jumping performance at Haydock when easing to an impressive success in the Walrus on Saturday. He still wasn't totally brilliant over his fences though and Haydock isn't the jumping test it used to be. Still as I pointed out before he has the engine to win this and on pure ability apart from Ferns Lock I think he is the best we have seen under rules so far this season. Straight after the race connections said they would go to Cheltenham, but the day after they seemingly changed their mind and it looks like he will skip the race and go to Aintree instead. There has been much discussion about if this is the right move or not, but for me I think he does need another year before going to Cheltenham. He hated the place last year and you just wonder if Gold Cup day might send him over the edge as well. Another year's experience will do him the world of good and whilst nothing is certain with horses and he might get injured, Hazel Hill was proof of how waiting a year did work out for the best. They have done so much to get this horse to use his ability to the best effect and why would you want to risk that now? Also Aintree is a big race itself so why is it a bad thing to choose to run their over Cheltenham? He is 7/1 for Cheltenham but obviously you want NRNB if you do want to back him.
I K Brunel/Not That Fuisse - These two finished 1st and 2nd in a hunter chase at Taunton yesterday and both performed very well. I K Brunel qualified for Cheltenham with that win and whilst I have no idea if this is the plan or not it wouldn't surprise me if he does turn up. He jumped well and was given a very good ride. Not That Fuisse wasn't given the best of rides and may well have won if he hadn't be caught behind horses after 4 out. I was surprised to see that he was being aimed at the race though because whilst I think he needs 3m now I struggle to see 3m2f round Cheltenham being what he wants. Also whilst he is a very good hunter chaser, he isn't good enough to win this.
The Storyteller - Returned to pointing a week and a half ago, but was beaten into 2nd place by Down The Highway the same horse who had finished just in front of him when they were both down the field at Down Royal on Boxing Day. I find it hard to see him running in the race now and he's clearly nowhere near his peak.
Chris's Dream - His trainer has said in today's Racing Post that he will come over for the race, but he has also been entered in the Grand National and if he runs in this at Cheltenham then he can't run in the Grand National.
Bob And Co - He was being trained in France, but whilst I don't know where he is currently stabled he has left France now. David Maxwell has yet to ride in a hunter chase this season and I noticed that he hasn't ridden his last two runners including at Taunton yesterday. This horse is the only possible runner Maxwell can have (unless he buys one) so it will be interesting to see if he is in the entries next week.
Its On The Line -  Won again at Kildorrery on Sunday beating Lord Schnitzel and It Came To Pass despite making a mistake at 2 out. His trainer said after the race that fingers crossed he will go to Cheltenham next. He is 14/1 and my feeling is that is still under the odds and whilst the trainer doesn't usually send one over for the sake of it his form isn't as strong as others.

First of all for the update this week is a horse I mentioned last month after he won a point and that is Rocky's Howya. He was 4/4 going into his run at Tallow on Sunday and needed to win the Open to qualify for Cheltenham. Well he didn't just win, he put in a devastating performance to beat Chatham Street Lad by 45L. The time was fast as well and for me it was a really impressive performance. Given the 2nd was being discussed as a possible for Cheltenham after he won last time and is as short as 12/1 for this race, if they decide to go to Cheltenham with the winner then he must have a chance. He looked very average as a hurdler previously and didn't show much in 3 starts over fences either so that would be a concern as would the trip, but he looks a different horse for the yard change and he clearly isn't a 106 horse anymore. He's not in the betting still, but connections are seriously thinking about a Cheltenham bid.
One UK trained runner I hadn't mentioned yet because I didn't consider him a contender is Go Go Geronimo who is set to be a runner in the race his trainer Kelly Morgan said after he won a couple of weeks ago at Alnwick. That was only an Intermediate and he was 2nd in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham last season so we know he handles the track. I really respect the trainer as well, but at this stage I struggle to see him being good enough to win this and I wouldn't have minded seeing him in stronger races than the two he has hacked up in so far this season. He's not in the betting either, but again he should be as he is an intended runner.
Secret Investor has got his 1st qualifying run under his belt this afternoon after winning at Bangor. On paper it is a run that would give him no chance at Cheltenham, but his jockey dictated the tempo from the front and only asked her mount to do enough to make sure the race was won and he had plenty up his sleeve. Having said that we still don't really know how much ability he retains and he's not a horse that would make my shortlist at this stage. He was actually pushed out in the betting for Cheltenham and is now 12/1 with William Hill. After the race connections have said he is likely to go to Taunton on the 21st in a bid to qualify for Cheltenham. After that there is only one other race he can run in and that is at Fontwell on the following Sunday.

Halifax v Barnet Oldham really didn't make it very hard for Halifax to win on Saturday as they managed just one shot in the entire game. Halifax still had to rely on a rebound from a penalty for the winning goal though and I still wouldn't have them as turning the corner. Barnet continued their impressive run of form by winning 3-1 at Scunthorpe on Friday night. That is a decent effort given the new owner and new manger will have really got the crowd going. I just don't understand how Barnet aren't clear favourites for this as they are certainly the better side and they are unbeaten in 10 league games. Indeed in their last 10 games they have recorded 26 points which is the same as Wrexham and Notts County. They have also sneaked into contention for 3rd place. Their average xG for the season is just 1.25 yet their average goals per games is 1.93. That ought to be unsustainable, but they have just been so clinical all season and crucially at the moment they aren't conceding goals either with just 4 scored against them in that run of 10 games.   Maidenhead v Southend Fair play to the Southend players to still be getting as many points as they are given all the off the field issues and it seems like they haven't been paid for January yet. There is a real risk they could be forced out of business at the start of March as well. They won on Saturday, but they were playing a York side who also have issues of their own at the moment. Maidenhead look to be coming out of the other side of a bad run of form although they haven't always been playing that badly and at home they continue to be strong including giving Notts County a big scare. This is just the type of game that Maidenhead thrive in and whilst Southend should be favs I think there is value in the price about a home win.   Oldham v Dagenham & Redbridge Dagenham weren't ones to trust away from home earlier in the season, but that has picked up since they beat Chesterfield away and actually at the moment you would have to say they have been better away than at home. They lost on Saturday 1-0 at Wealdstone, but they had so many chances that they really ought to have got at least a point. As I have mentioned above Oldham stunk the place out on Saturday and if they play like that again there is only going to be one winner. Dagenham are too big a price not to back here.   Taunton v Dulwich One bet at Step 2 tonight comes in this game. Dulwich can't stop leaking goals and have conceded 18 in their last 6 and have lost five of those. Even in the game they won they conceded twice. Whenever I write about Dulwich I always mention the strange choice of manager and it really does seem his inexperience is showing at the moment. Taunton have only lost once at home all season and even managed to beat Havant last week in their first loss on their travels all season. Taunton surprisingly beat Eastbourne 3-0 on Saturday and if they continue in that form then they should be picking up another 3 points here.   Barnet 2pts @ 7/4 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Maidenhead 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365, Coral, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 9/4) Dagenham & Redbridge 2pts @ 11/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Ladbrokes (you can get bigger on Betfair exchange and with Coral take up to 7/4) Taunton 2pts @ 13/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill and Ladbrokes (take up to Evs)

The obvious place to start is the hunter chase at Thurles last Sunday as we saw a hugely impressive winner in Ferns Lock. In the very first post in this seasons blog I mentioned that he was highly unlikely to go to Cheltenham this season and despite the fact he would have a leading chance, his trainer has said he will not be going to The Festival this year. He was given a Racing Post Rating of 155 for the win and the only sort of rating that high that I can think of in this sphere in recent years would be Mossey Joe's when he bolted up in the Stratford Champion Foxhunter a few years ago. I think his trainer thinks he is better than Winged Leader and Vaucelet and I agree with him. I also think he is doing the right thing in not going to Cheltenham this year. It can be a tough race and Ferns Lock has never experienced anything like it so far. David Christie certainly seems to be of the Willie Mullins school of thinking in letting novices be novices. He is set to go to Gowran on the Saturday before Cheltenham next and I was thinking the John Corbet Cup would have been a good target for him at Stratford, but my reading of the conditions for the race is that he wouldn't actually be able to run in it because of his Fairyhouse win in November. I therefore wonder if he might use Stratford as a tester for Cheltenham and put in the big race. Some bookies did take him out of the market for this on Monday, but I guess he should be kept in as there is a month until entries close and people do change their minds. Clearly though you wouldn't want to be backing him at the moment. If he did go he would be favourite in my opinion. Two other things to note. First of all Ruby Walsh said on RacingTV that he looked like he would come on for the run (which is scary if he can put in a performance like that not fully fit) and 2nd his trainer said he would likely enter Ultimate Optimist as well as the other two at Cheltenham.
I'm surprised Billaway drifted out after his run because he basically put in the same sort of run he put in last season in this race when he was 2nd to Winged Leader. He has never won first time out and obviously he reversed the form come Cheltenham. He was slow at some fences and hit a flat spot, but Patrick wasn't over hard on him once he knew he couldn't win and I would be amazed if we didn't see a big improvement next time. Whilst I'm not biting myself I can see why 9/1 with Bet365 would appeal from an e/w perspective. 
On Sunday 15th Chris's Dream qualified for Cheltenham with a comfortable victory at Carrigarostig. Of the ex Rules horses we have seen so far he would be the one that would interest me the most at the moment and he is now 9/1 with Bet365. As I always say though horses with his profile don't tend to do that well in this race anymore.
The horse who finished behind Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse was Its On The Line. He came over to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup last year and was fairly weak in the market and ran accordingly pulling up. This season as well as being behind Ferns Lock he was 2nd and 3rd in points behind The Storyteller. He appeared to take a massive step-up in performance though on the 15th when beating Lord Schnitzel by 7L at Turtulla. Derek O'Connor rode him that day and I would imagine it would be his ride at Cheltenham as well. He's an interesting one because until that win I wouldn't have given him a hope, but given his trainer I just wonder if he is bringing him to the boil nicely. Only 3 bookies have him in the betting and he is 16/1 with Unibet, but bookies should price him up as he is an intended runner at this stage. I'm also going to add he actually went off favourite against Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse.
Brain Power won again on Saturday afternoon and I will add more when I see some quotes.
In the UK the weather has got in the way of pointing and hunter chases, but Sheriff Hutton on January 15th took place and saw 2 Cheltenham contenders. Dubai Quest was 4th in the race last year and returned to land the Ladies Open in very comfortable fashion. I would imagine he will have another run before Cheltenham and whilst he does have a bit to find on the front 2 from last year he ought to still have improvement in him and the 33/1 price that he currently is seems a bit insulting given some of the horses in front of him in the betting.
In the Mens Open on the card former Tom George inmate Black Op made it 3/3 since going pointing. He had already qualified for Cheltenham after winning two opens last year in easy fashion and he clocked a faster time than Dubai Quest despite the fact he was carrying a stone more. He was a Grade 1 winning hurdler and was 2nd to Samcro in the Ballymore in 2018. He had lost his way under Rules, but the change of yard and going pointing has clearly worked with him as he still has plenty of ability. Only BetVictor and William Hill have him priced up and they both go 25/1 but if he was able to run to his pointing form at Cheltenham then he would have place claims.

Aldershot v Leiston Aldershot's two wins against Southend and Gateshead are sticking out like sore thumbs because they have their other 7 league games out of their last 9. Leiston have only lost 3 games in the league all season and all though two levels below I can see them being capable of causing an upset here.   Solihull v Barnet Granted it is hard to know how seriously these two will take the game as getting in the play-offs will be more important you would imagine, but I just can't believe Barnet are such a big price here. Solihull are in woeful form at the moment and they look a long way from the side who made the play-off final last season. They have only won once in their last 9 league games and whilst they have had some tough fixtures (they had Wrexham as their Christmas/New Year double header) they have done nothing for me to make them odds on to beat a Barnet side who have only lost once in their last 10. Even when they aren't at their best Barnet are finding a way of at least getting a point in the league and I just don't get the massive price about them here.   Scarborough v Blyth Spartans Scarborough were rubbish last week when we were on them against Hereford, but I think they are a spot of value to get back to winning ways here. Blyth have only won 4 games in the league all season and whilst there have been improvement of late that improvement has tended to come at home as was the case when they drew 0-0 with Kings Lynn last week. Away from home they have lost 7 of their last 8 and given Scarborough are having a great season and are right in play-off contention it is hard to understand why they are odds against to win this.   Hampton & Richmond v Oxford City Hampton have only won once in their last 10 games and of course it was one time when we opposed them (away at Chelmsford), but their poor run of form was enough to see their manager leave and I think they will struggle against an Oxford side who are very hard to beat. They have lost just 1 in their last 10 although they have drawn half of those. They have been producing some high xG's of late and I suspect it will be the same again here. I make them clear favourites for this.   Leiston 1pt @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 3/1) Barnet 2pts @ 7/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power (4/1 with Betfred and 15/4 with Hills and take up to 2/1) Scarborough 1pt @ 5/4 with Betfair, Paddy Power, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to Evs) Oxford City 1pt @ 6/4 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Hills are 8/5 and take up to 5/4)

A brief update this week. Envious Editor won the first hunter chase of the season and has been put in the betting for Cheltenham, but Aintree is his target and although the trainer has surprised with entries in the past I would be surprised if he turned up here.
I have been told that Bob And Co is now being trained in France and whilst that doesn't rule him out of running in this you would think it unlikely.
Onto Ireland and a horse called Rocky's Howya made it 4/4 in points at the weekend. He didn't achieve a great deal over hurdles with a couple of 2nd places the best he managed. After a year off though he seems a different horse as he has gone through the grades and his win at Aghabullogue was his best yet. His trainer after the race said he wouldn't rule Cheltenham out although he still needs to qualify. He isn't currently in the betting, but he clearly should be given this has been given as a possible target.
Chatham Street Lad is a general 20/1 shot for Cheltenham after he won at Ballindenisk on New Years Day. He had been only 4th on his pointing debut the previous month at the same track which was his first run since the 2021 Betfair Chase. His trainer said he had come on a lot for that run and it showed as he won well. After the race though the trainer only mentioned about running him in points so no mention of Cheltenham at this stage. He also needs to qualify.

Barnet v Gateshead
Two sides I put up on Monday and both drew. Barnet weren't as good as they were on Boxing Day and were slightly fortunate to get a draw, whilst Gateshead should have won and conceded two poor goals. They were the better side and it was disappointing they weren't able to see it out. I do fancy Barnet here though as I thought they were so good on Boxing Day and they have been in such good form of late and even though they weren't at their best on Monday they still found a way to equalise. Not surprisingly they announced that Dean Brennan has had his contract extended because he is doing a hell of a job. I don't think there is a huge amount in the price, but I certainly think they should be shorter as they are the better team and I don't think the odds represent a play-off team playing a team in a relegation battle. Also, whilst Gateshead did go to York and beat them 3-0 they have struggled away from home this season having only won twice.
 
Wealdstone v Eastleigh
Great performance from Eastleigh to land the 3pt bet on Sunday, but of course Dorking's dreadful defending did help. As I have highlighted in recent weeks Eastleigh'sHMRC  form at home and form away is vastly different and whilst I didn't want to take advantage of that when they went to Dorking, and was right to do so, I do want to back Wealdstone to beat them. They have had a strange old season having started in good form, then losing the plot and now they are back in good form again having only lost to Barnet in their last 8 games. The fact Eastleigh couldn't win at Dorking and could only score 1 goal there and then scored 4 goals against them at home just highlights for me the massive difference. I would make Wealdstone favourites so am they are fair value here.
 
Darlington v Chorley
Frustratingly Chorley managed to get their first league away win since August when we were on Fylde on Boxing Day, but I am going to oppose them again here as they travel to current top of the table Darlington. We are getting odds against as well and I think that is a big price. Darlington did lose to Scarborough at home on Boxing Day 3-2, but they had a higher xG and then on Monday they hammered them 5-2. Darlington's only other loss in their last 10 games was to Fylde and they are playing very well at the moment. 
 
Hereford v Scarborough
Speaking of Scarborough I am going to put them up to beat Hereford because they look cracking value. Hereford look pretty poor at the moment. They barely created a shot of note in the two games against Kidderminster over Christmas although they did manage a goal which gave them a point on New Years Day whereas they lost 1-0 at home on Boxing Day. They haven't won in 6 games now and before that the win was only against AFC Telford. Scarborough have only lost that game on Monday and to Chester in their last 10 and for me are a better side than Hereford so I'm more than happy to back them at over 2/1.
 
Peterborough Sports v Southport
Southport have drawn half of their last 10 league games, but they have also only lost once and whilst overall their away form doesn't look great, they are now unbeaten in 5 on their travels and they look a big price here. Peterborough revealed earlier in the week that they are currently under a transfer embargo due to an unpaid VAT bill. As far as I know that hadn't been announced anywhere before, but clearly it means they have been stuck with the same squad for a while now and I don't think it is a coincidence that they have lost their last 3 league games. Granted they were spread out across December, but this will be a tricky game for them against a team who are hard to beat right now.
 
Barnet 1pt @ 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/10)
Wealdstone 1pt @ 17/10 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 11/8)
Darlington 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill and Bet365 (take up to Evs)
Scarborough 2pts @ 23/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair (Hills are 12/5 and take up to 7/4)
Southport 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Hills are 21/10 and take up to 7/4)

Double. 
3.15. Wolv. Hammy End       6/1      unpl
2.30. Ffos. Word Has it         3/1      unpl
singles & double. 
Good luck 

Barnet v Boreham Wood Thought it was hard to see much value in the National League on Monday. Opposing Eastleigh away from home against Dorking was half tempting, but Dorking aren't really winning matches at the moment and Eastleigh did win at Woking in the FA Trophy this week. So the one bet will be Barnet in the live BT game. Not sure why Boreham Wood have been so well backed, but that means Barnet have drifted to value price. With the FA Cup, FA Trophy and the weather neither of these sides have seen much league action of late, but Barnet have only lost twice in their last 10 league games and one of those was the 7-5 freak game at Wrexham. Boreham Wood on the other hand hadn't won in 7 until they beat Oldham 2-1 in their last league match. That was slightly fortunate as it needed a 90th minute goal to win the match and Barnet will be a tougher game than Oldham. Barnet should be favourites for me so 21/10 is a huge price.   AFC Fylde v Chorley Really like Fylde here. They come into this game in great form in the league and whilst Chorley have yet to lose at home, away from home they have only won twice and both of those came in August. At evens/shade of odds on Fylde are too big a price for me.   Havant & Waterlooville v Eastbourne Ante-post wise I hope this bet is a loser, but Eastbourne are too big for me. Havant's home form has not been good of late as they have won just twice in their last 7 home league games. Eastbourne have only lost once in their last 9 games and in their last league game they won at Ebbsfleet so they are certainly over priced for this.   Hemel Hempstead v St Albans St Albans are in good form at the moment and have only lost to Eastbourne in their last 7 league games. They are a better side than their hosts here who have only beaten Chippenham, Hungerford and Bath in their last 10 league games.     Barnet 2pts @ 21/10 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 11/8) AFC Fylde 3pts @ 19/20 with Skybet (Coral are 21/10 and take up to 4/6) Eastbourne 1pt @ 7/2 with Betfred (Coral are 18/5 and take up to 5/2) St Albans 1pt @ 13/8 with William Hill (take up to 11/8)  

Chesterfield v Dorking Happy to back the over 3.5 goals here. Dorking lost 3-1 at Halifax on Tuesday and I think Chesterfield will bounce back from their own defeat at Halifax last Saturday. At the very least I think we will see goals.   Eastleigh v Wrexham Eastleigh won for us at home last week and I can't remember seeing a team have such a big difference to the points they have won at home compared to the points they have won away. Wrexham were awful again away from home against York last week and York fully deserved to score the injury time equalizer. More than happy to back the home side at big odds here.   Maidenhead v Notts County Maidenhead had a great record against the big clubs at home last season and Alan Devonshire just continues to get his Maidenhead side to cause the big sides plenty of issues. Clearly County should be odds on favs, but there is value for me in the home win.   Yeovil v Scunthorpe The set of fixtures this weekend are the reverse of the opening day ones and Scunthorpe fans were probably thinking they would be in for a good season when they beat Yeovil, but things have turned very sour since then. They have only managed to win 2 more league games since then and are currently bottom and without a manager. I don't think the takeover is going to have an effect at the moment and they have yet to win away from home. At the start of the season I wouldn't have thought I would have been backing Yeovil at Evs to beat anyone, but Mark Cooper has not surprisingly improved the side and beating Halifax last time was a very good win. They have only lost at Woking in their last 6 games and they can win this.   Oldham v Torquay Hopefully this game will be live on BT Sport on Sunday afternoon after they have shown Braintree v Dulwich at lunchtime. Boreham Wood scored a late winner to defeat Oldham, but that sums them up at the moment. Just 1 point in their last 6 games which came against Maidstone and David Unsworth must be close to getting the sack. Money is being spent on the side, but they still aren't getting results and I think they could do with a new manager. Torquay have hardly been convincing themselves, but winning at Dagenham last weekend was a surprisingly good result. If it was just down to the managers then I'd be really strong on Torquay here and hopefully Johnson's experience can see Torquay land the 3 points.   Slough v Havant & Waterlooville Shouldn't be any issues with this game being on as Slough have a 3g pitch. Havant were hammered by Worthing last week who were themselves hammered by Ebbsfleet on Tuesday. With Ebbsfleet already looking hard to catch I do think those two results have pretty much made it Ebbsfleet's title already. I don't see them getting caught now. Ebbsfleet had a comfortable afternoon beating Slough 2-0 last weekend and I think Havant can also cover the -1 handicap here. Slough struggled against 10 man Concord on Tuesday night and Havant should be able to make their class show against one of the weaker sides in the division.   Chesterfield v Dorking over 3.5 goals 1pt @ 31/20 with Paddy Power and Betfair (13/8 with Bet365 and take up to 5/4) Eastleigh 1pt @ 9/2 with William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred (take up to 5/2) Maidenhead 1pt @ 7/1 with Betfred (15/2 with Coral and Ladbrokes and take up to 5/1) Yeovil 2pts @ Evs with Bet365 (take up to 4/5) Torquay 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfred and William Hill (take up to 2/1) Havant -1 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred (take up to 11/8)

Slough v Concord A change of manager at Slough led to a win in the FA Trophy win, but back in the league and it has been two defeats. They not surprisingly lost to Ebbsfleet on Saturday, but more worrying has to be the 5-1 loss to Eastbourne the week before. It is just 2 points for them in their last 10 games now and they are really struggling. Concord have also changed their manager and as I highlighted a few weeks ago they have improved for the manager switch. Their only defeat in the last 6 league games was against Dartford and they have won 4 of those 6 games. Quite why they are as big a price as they are for this I don't know as they are in much better shape than their hosts right now and they are cracking value.   Welling v Farnborough Welling started off very well and the ante-post bet on them was looking a fair shout, but their form has fallen off the edge of a cliff as they have won just once in 10 games. They have drawn 3 of their last 5 which isn't bad, but they are suffering a bit with injuries at the moment. I'm happy to back Farnborough again here as they were a bit unlucky not to win for us on Saturday. Their good form continues though so I think they can get back to winning ways here.   Kidderminster v Chester For the first time since Setanta showed the play-offs back in 2007 we have a live National League North game on TV to look forward to. With a blank day in the World Cup BT are showing this game on Wednesday night and on Sunday lunchtime they are showing the National League South game between Braintree and Dulwich. It is handy they have chosen this game because I really fancy Chester. Quite how the bookies have come up with the prices they have for this game I don't know. The home sides only win in their last 7 games was a lucky one against bottom side AFC Telford. I mentioned when I backed Gloucester against them that they weren't playing well and they duly lost that game. On Friday night they only drew 1-1 against an Alfreton side who had gone down to ten men and had to put the reserve keeper in goal after their first choice got injured. They now host a Chester game who have won 7 and drawn 3 of their last 10 league games. They have scored 21 goals in that time, scored in every game and conceded just 7, 4 of which came in the 3 draws. As that shows they are in cracking form at the moment and their price is crazy as I would nearly make them favourites. At the price they are for me they are a max bet.   Concord 2pts @ 5/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 7/4) Farnborough 1pt @ 17/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 11/8) Chester 5pts @ 11/4 with Bet365, Betfred and Skybet (Coral are 3/1 and take up to 6/4)

Altrincham v Eastleigh I am happy to carry on opposing Eastleigh away from home as I did last week when they lost to Maidenhead. Altrincham have been in good form and although they lost 3 on the bounce one was at Wrexham, and one was a 1-0 loss to Wealdstone which they should have won. I'd have them shorter than they are for this.   Dorking v York A bit surprised to see over 3.5 goals as big as it is for this given Dorking are involved. I did wonder if it wouldn't happen against Bromley last week given their lack of goals, but it duly ended up 3-2. Odds are too big on it being over 3.5 again for a Dorking game.   Maidstone v Maidenhead I was tempted to back Maidenhead, but this is just the sort of game they struggle in and actually Maidstone don't lose that often at home. They have only lost 3 times at home and drawn 5 and those have all come in their last 7 home games. I can easily see this being a low scoring draw so am happy to back the stalemate here.   Kettering v Southport (NLN) Kettering's pitch is always a right state and that has meant their home performances/results are much better than their away ones. They have lost just twice at home all season and even managed to beat Kings Lynn. Southport's away form has improved after losing 5 bounce as they have won their last 3, but given Kettering's strengths at home they shouldn't be as big a price as they are.   Kidderminster v Gloucester (NLN) Kidderminster were so lucky to beat AFC Telford on Tuesday night as they were still a goal down with less than 10 minutes to go. They then scored 2 quick goals to turn the game around, but it highlighted again how much they are under performing this season. I know Gloucester's form has fallen off the edge of the cliff and injuries have not helped, but the performance against Scarborough was much better and the late winner had an xG of just 0.07 which sums up what a wonder strike it was. I think 2 weeks off from the league will have been a big help for the team who had a very busy set of fixtures and one where the players really put in a lot of effort when King first joined. I'd still have the home side as favs, but no way should their be as much between the two sides as there is so I am happy to take an away win.   Forest Green v Alvechurch Into the FA Cup and whilst I know FGR are bottom and Alvechurch beat Cheltenham in the last round I just can't see them causing another upset. FGR managed to beat South Shields 2-0 in the previous around away from home and South Shields are miles better than Alvechurch. As much as Alvechurch performed so well against Cheltenham I just can't see them being able to pull off another freak result like that and as I said in the previous round, the fact the game is on TV helps focus the League sides minds in my view. The -1 handicap is odds against and FGR really should be covering that.   Dagenham & Redbridge v Gillingham Dagenham have been a really curious side this season having put in some stinking performances, but the vast majority of those have been away from home. They have only lost once at home and that was 5-0 against Notts County. Gillingham are really struggling at the bottom of League 2 and who knows this might be a league game I am writing about next season. I'd make Dagenham favourites to win this so they are a spot of value.   Ipswich v Buxton Ipswich didn't put out their first team against Bracknell, but you could see the massive class edge that they had and they did enough to land the handicap bet for us in the end. Now they are at home here I think they can run out easy winners against a Buxton side who aren't as good as I thought they would be this season. The handicap is at -2 again, but I think they can cover it and prove their massive class edge.   Altrincham 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Dorking v York over 3.5 goals 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Maidstone v Maidenhead draw 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfred (12/5 with Bet365 and take up to 21/10) Kettering 1pt @ 5/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1) Gloucester 1pt @ 11/2 with everyone and William Hill are 13/2 (take up to 5/2) Forest Green -1 3pts @ 11/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 4/5) Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Ipswich -2 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/10)

It is time to start my road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunters Chase (it really was easier when they called it the Foxhunters) for the 2023 renewal. Pointing has been going a couple of weeks in Britain although hunter chases don't start until January 9th at Taunton. In Ireland pointing started in October and we had the first hunter chase at Fairyhouse this week. No British contenders have been out yet, but there have been contenders over in Ireland. As per usual the first post will be focusing on all the runners currently near the top of the market in the ante-post betting and then following updates will occur as and when things need updating   Vaucelet - Skipped Cheltenham last year but won at Fairyhouse, was 2nd to Billaway at Punchestown and then won the Stratford Foxhunters in May. He had to work quite hard to beat Law Of Gold that evening, but they went a slow pace and I do think more of a stamina test will suit. Every chance the tough battle with Billaway left a mark as well. After that he was made ante-post favourite for the race (4/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill) and it is understandable as he ought to still be improving. He has already been seen this season as he won an Open at Portrush last month. He wasn't especially impressive as he only beat Coastal Tiep by 0.5L with Le Malin a further 0.5L back in 3rd. His trainer David Christie said after the race though was that he was fit enough to do himself justice, but he is working back from Cheltenham. They didn't go a strong pace either and he had to make the running so whilst the bare form isn't great it was a perfectly satisfactory start to the season.   Winged Leader - It will be interesting if he and Vaucelet both go to Cheltenham given he is the same connections as Vaucelet. He was a superb 2nd in this last season and was arguably unlucky to be pipped by Billaway. He hasn't been seen yet this season.   Billaway - Finally got the victory he deserved after finishing 2nd in this race in the 2 previous years. He then went and did the Cheltenham/Punchestown double. He will be 11 next year whereas Vaucelet will be 8 and Winged Leader will be 9 so it could be the younger legs get their revenge. Willie Mullins reported him in good form and Cheltenham is the target again.   Latenightpass - He is as short as single figures, but I would be amazed if he runs as connections have suggested he will stick to pointing before aiming to win the Aintree Foxhunters again.   Samcro - Has won 2 points with ease, but don't back him as he isn't able to run in hunter chases in Britain this season so shame on William Hill for quoting him at 10/1.   The Storyteller - Former Cheltenham Festival winner as he won the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate in 2018. He pulled up in the Ryanair in 2019 and then in the following two years he has run over hurdles at the Festival finishing 2nd in the Pertemps in 2020 and then 5th in the Stayers' Hurdle in 2021. Sadly, in September of that year he pulled up lame at Listowel and he wasn't seen again for over a year when he won a Ladies Open at Ballycrystal. He only won by a short head that day beating Its On The Line who was pulled up in the John Corbet Cup last season and was a well beaten 2nd to Ferns Lock in the first hunter chase of the season at Fairyhouse, so that form is not good enough to win at Cheltenham. He qualified for Cheltenham when he won at Necarne on Sunday and whilst he did it comfortably it was not a strong race at all. He has already been tipped up in one tipsters ante-post Cheltenham on another website, but I struggle to see it at this stage. Formerly top-class horses on the downgrade don't tend to win this race anymore and although he is rated 163 over fences if he was anywhere near that level, he wouldn't be going hunter chasing. Like I say the form of his two point wins are miles away from what is needed to win this and he got a RPR of 104 for both wins which sums up the level of the form for me. I would also query if he wants 3m2f round Cheltenham especially if it came up testing. He is 10/1 with William Hill and is as short as 7/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair, but that is way too short a price for me at this stage. Hopefully he will go hunter chasing so we can get a better idea of where he is at.   Good Bye Sam - Was bafflingly put into the market for this last year even though he was never likely to qualify for the race. He was 2nd to Billaway at Naas in his first hunter chase in February, but was then beaten at 2/11 at Thurles in a maiden hunter chase the following month. He finally got his head in front at Tramore and was then beaten into 2nd in a race over the banks course at the Punchestown Festival. He is qualified for this race, but Willie Mullins didn't mention him in his stable tour and at this stage even his top price of 14/1 (William Hill) looks too short let alone the 8/1 he is with Unibet.   Castlebawn West - Won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in Christmas 2020 when trained with Willie Mullins and wasn't seen again until running in the same race Samcro won at Tinahely last month. He was pulled up very quickly after the 3rd fence that day though so it would appear he has been injured again. Given the doubt about his fitness he can't be touched at his current price of 14/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair.   Simply The Betts - I'm not sure what has happened to Bob And Co, but it seems he isn't in contention for Cheltenham this year and David Maxwell has purchased this horse and mentioned it might be his Cheltenham Hunter Chase horse. The problem is I don't think he can run in hunter chases this season as he was 2nd in the Grade 2 at Cheltenham back in April and as far as I know that rules him out. Even if he could run I don't think he will stay.   Monalee - He hasn't run since November 2020 and has only been seen 21 times in his career which for a horse about to turn 12 is not very much at all. He was of course a very close 4th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2020 which along with his 2 2nds in the Savills Chase would be the pick of his form for me. Clearly we have no idea as to how much ability he retains, but his trainer Henry De Bromhead has said he is in great form and is set to go down the hunter chase route with him. I know I have said I wouldn't usually like horses on the downgrade for this race, but like I say he hasn't had much racing (The Storyteller has had 38 starts) so he could be an interesting one. He is 16/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair, but I certainly wouldn't be backing him until we see him run and see how much ability he retains.   Jett - Must admit I thought they had retired him after his shocking run at Aintree, but he is listed in the prices at 20/1. I'd be amazed if he turned up though given how he ran at Fontwell and Aintree last season. NB adding an update to this on 28/11/22 to say that Jett reappeared in a point at Larkhill yesterday, but he ran very poorly and pulled up at an early stage. Even if they do have another go with him I would be amazed if they don't just stick to points let alone consider this.   Bob And Co - Is listed at 20/1 in the betting, but as I mention above he wasn't talked about in Paul Nicholls' stable tour so I couldn't be backing him to make it 3rd time lucky at this stage. At the same time it is hard to see what else Maxwell will have for the race at the moment.   Ferns Lock - I was hugely impressed with him at Fairyhouse this week when he beat Its On The Line by 12L on what was only his 4th start. He will only be 6 in March and given David Christie has the front two in the betting I would be surprised if he made the trip to Cheltenham this season, but he looks a very promising horse going forward.   Porlock Bay - Won this in 2021, but connections decided to miss it last term and focus on Aintree instead where he was a good 3rd. He will be 12 next year so hard to see him regaining his crown if he does go to The Festival this time around.   Dandy Dan - I was really impressed with his victory at hunter chase night at Cheltenham in April when he beat the very useful Caryto Des Brosses in good style. He was then 3rd at Stratford behind Vaucelet where I think it was a combination of his jockey not knowing the course and that a stronger test of stamina was needed, meant he didn't finish closer to the winner. He would appear to not want soft ground, but he could be a player on good ground given what he did in April.   Dubai Quest - Was one of my fancies for the race last year and although he was beaten 25L back in 4th I thought he ran with great credit on just his 13th start. He will be 10 next year, but clearly has had little racing so if he can find more improvement then he would be a leading contender again in March.    That is it for now. I certainly couldn't be putting up any bets at this stage as I would imagine we might even see contenders appear that aren't even priced up yet given there are various doubts about some of those that I have mentioned above. At this stage though I do think one of the top 3 in the betting looks like the likely winner. 

Chesterfield v Northampton These two sides are both 3rd in the table, but all the money has been for the National League side which does surprise me a bit. I certainly think Chesterfield are capable of pulling off a victory, but Northampton are just too big a price for me. We only have to look at how Stockport and Grimsby are doing to know that there is a bit of a gap in class between the two divisions so I just can't make Northampton as big a price as they are. I know they have only won 1 game in 6, but that was against Stevenage and they have only lost 3 games in the league all season. Away from home Northampton have only lost at Walsall and they have played some tough games. Chesterfield are over their little wobble now and had a very easy night against Gateshead on Tuesday. The thing is though they will play league games at home to teams who are priced up at 9/4 so for that to be the price of the team who are 3rd in the league above just has to be taken.   Woking v Oxford United (Sunday) Usually I like backing the underdogs at big prices to cause an upset and have a good record over the years, but this round and the prices on offer makes it very tough on that front. South Shields, Fylde, Chelmsford and Weymouth were all teams I were thinking about backing, but the prices on them are too short for me to take. There certainly seems to be a move for bookies to offer shorter odds on the underdogs. Alvechurch are the same price to beat Cheltenham as Oldham are to beat Wrexham. Now I don't think either will, but how can those two things be the same price as each other. Anyway the one Non-League side I will be backing is Woking who I think do have a chance of beating League 1 Oxford. Woking have been very strong at home all season and they do look a side capable of being in the play-offs. They strike me as the sort of side who can cause an upset in a one off game and Oxford aren't doing that well in League 1 this season.   Bracknell v Ipswich (Monday night ITV4) Bracknell won promotion last season to Step 3 of Non-League football and although they are in 11th place at the moment it is a little misleading as they have only played 12 league games and have actually only lost twice. As much as it would be great if we saw an upset the gulf in class between these two sides is huge as Ipswich are currently 2nd in League 1 having only lost twice. They have managed to score 35 league goals and their xG's in their last 3 games have been 2.24, 2.34 and 2.54. If they are recording those sort of figures against other League 1 sides then they are likely to be much higher on Monday night. At this stage last season we saw two sides from Bracknell's level appear on TV. Banbury hosted League 2 Barrow and lost 4-0 and Stratford hosted League 1 Shrewsbury and lost 5-1. The non TV games involving teams from their level were on the whole much closer affairs and I certainly think there is something in the League side not wanting to be embarrassed and on the end of an upset live on TV. Ipswich really should be covering the -2 handicap.   FA Cup Acca As usual at this stage I put up a short price acca with teams who I think look bankers. The bet features 7 teams. Burton to beat Needham Market, Cheltenham to beat Alvechurch, Charlton to beat Coalville, Lincoln to beat Chippenham, MK Dons to beat Taunton, Derby to beat Torquay and Ipswich to beat Bracknell.    Northampton 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 (their 2 goals up offer comes into play in the FA Cup games and take up to 6/4) Woking 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 (take up to 100/30) Ipswich -2 2.5pts @ 5/4 with Bet365 Burton, Cheltenham, Charlton, Lincoln, MK Dons, Derby and Ipswich 1pt acca @ 5.79/1 with Bet365

Kidderminster v Darlington 2 sides who are likely to be in the play-offs at the end of the season and I don't think there is much between them at which makes the drift on the away side pretty mental really. Darlo did have a little wobble where they didn't win in 4 games, but then the first two of those were a draw against Brackley and a loss to Kings Lynn and they are currently the top 2 in the table. They then lost 2-1 to Buxton who happened to score with their only 2 shots on target from just 5 shots in total. Then in the 1-1 draw against Leamington they had an xG of 3.42. They followed that up with an easy win at Telford on Tuesday night. Kidderminster are just struggling for consistency as highlighted by the fact they have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 games. They were involved in good game on Tuesday night at Scarborough which the home team won 4-2. Like I say I don't think there is much between those two sides so the price on an away win is way too big.   Spennymoor v Gloucester Gloucester were disappointing on Monday, but I did fear it might be one game too many and coming so close after the Kings Lynn effort that is what happened. The game was played in horrid weather though and whilst Bradford did deserve to win their 2 goals were down to keeper error and a deflection. Gloucester signed two more players before the game as I thought, but then you had a large part of the team who had barely played together. A few days training since will have helped on that front and they travel to a Spennymoor side who have won just 3 games this season and only 1 of those was at home. We of course had Chester to beat them on Tuesday night at a big price. They have drawn half of their league games so the draw is a concern, but I think we will bounce back from Monday's loss and add more misery to Spennymoor's season.   Slough v St Albans Opposing Slough has been profitable for us in recent weeks and I was right to swerve them against a Worthing side I wasn't that impressed with when I saw them play Dulwich last week. I am happy to take them on again here though against a St Albans side who are in really good shape at the moment. There has been plenty of improvement since they sacked their manager and they come here on the back of a 6-0 win over Hampton on Tuesday night.   Darlington 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill (take up to 2/1) Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with Betfred, Betfair, Paddy Power, Skybet and Bet365 (William Hill 21/10 take up to 6/4) St Albans 2pts @ 17/10 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4

As usual I will be staying all night to watch the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday morning. You will be able to watch the action on Sky Sports Racing. I don't think it is an overly strong race and my thinking is it is even weaker than last year's race. The front two in the betting both come from the UK so whilst they are the only 2 still trained here there is a very strong chance the Cup will be coming back to the UK. I have had a look at every horse in the field and come up with my idea of the first 4. 
Gold Trip - Ex-French and his only win remains a G2 in France, but he has run some really good races in defeat in Australia. He was 5th in Turnbull which was solid and then he was just nabbed on the line by Durston in the Caulfield Cup. A week later he was 9th in the Cox Plate which doesn't look great on paper, but he had little room in the final 200m and he was better than the finishing position that day. It's pretty tough to take in all 3 of the big ones and he's unproven past 2400m. The other concern is top weights do not have a good record in the Melbourne Cup, but he does enjoy wet ground so that side of things is ideal for him. I can see him running well again without winning.   Duais - Hasn't been running as well as she had in the Autumn when she won the G1 Australia Cup here over 2000m in great style and followed that up by taking the G1 Tancred at Newcastle over 2400m. This prep she has been no better than OK, but there was promise in her Caulfield Cup run where she had to sit in 14th place and was forced to come very wide round the final bend. At the 400m marker she was still in 16th place and ended up finishing 8th. Based on that effort it does look like she needs 3200m now and it could just be that she's working herself to hit peak form here.   Knights Order - Was stuffed in this race last year when only 19th, but he should be able to improve on that this time around as he has been in much better form since. He won the Sydney Cup when making all and then won the G2 Chelmsford over 1600m. He's run well in 3 starts since then including a 4th in the Turnbull and 3rd in the Caulfield Cup when beaten a length. He handles any ground so won't mind if it does become a heavy track, but he has drawn a stinker of a stall in 24. He is going to be doing very well to get across to lead without using too much energy up and because of that I think he is opposable. We do at least know he stays the trip and if he had drawn lower then I might have been tempted to back him.   Montefilia - She is a top class horse on her day and finished 4th in the Caulfield Cup for the 2nd year running. She came into that having run poorly at Randwick on a Heavy 8, but connections blamed the ground that day and whilst she has won on a heavy track that day was especially bad so I don't actually have an issue with her if it comes up heavy here. She looked arguably was the run of the race at Caulfield as she was bumped at the top of the straight and her final 200m split of 11.8 was the 7th fastest of the meeting. At the 400m she was still in 14th place having been in 16th for most of the trip. The trip is a query as she hasn't been this far, but clearly she sees 2400m out well and I think she will stay. Has a big chance for me.   Numerian - Has done well this year and was a very good 5th in the Caulfield Cup last time. He was on speed in that race though sitting in 2nd place throughout and given they didn't go much of a gallop it has to be a concern that he faded into 5th given he has to go an extra 800m here.   Without A Fight - This has always been the target for him this season and we know he handles travel as he was 2nd to Hukum in Meydan back in March. He won a couple of times over 2800m at York in the summer which proved that he is highly likely to stay 3200m in this and that he can quicken off a slow tempo which could be vital here. His prep run was at Newmarket last month where he was well to finish 2nd over 2400m giving away weight to the winner. I like the depth of his form and although ideally he could have been drawn a little lower than 18 he does have the services of William Buick to help on that front. He's won on soft at Newbury and Haydock and I reckon those surfaces are at least as testing as what he will end up facing here. He has a big chance for me.   Camorra - Having his 1st start in Australia having been trained by Ger Lyons and he landed the Curragh Cup in June which has been a very good pointer for this race in recent years. I'm not sure that was a very strong race this time around though and the big concern has to be his shocking run in the Irish St Leger last time. He did handle heavy tracks in his younger days, but his form since then points to him needing a good surface. On balance he looks opposable.   Deauville Legend - European 3yos managed to win this race twice in 2017 and 2018, but both of those winners carried much lesser weight than he has to. He broke his maiden tag at Windsor in April and then was 2nd in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot. He then took the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket before finishing 2nd in the Gordon Stakes (a neck in front of Hoo Ya Mal) and then took the Great Voltigeur last time at York. Mixed messages from the form of that race as the 2nd ran poorly on his next start but the 3rd El Bodegon was 3rd in the Cox Plate. He's unproven over this far, but I don't have an issue about that what I do think could be an issue is a wet track as he has never encountered one yet. Kerrin McEvoy has a superb record in this race so that is a big plus. He clearly has a chance, but he is a very short price favourite.   Stockman - Had a bizarre prep for this when he ran in the Rosehill Cup on Saturday over 2000m when finishing 8th. A couple weeks ago on his previous start he landed the St Leger at Randwick over 2600m and the 4th in the Met was decent as well. He loves a wet track so that is a plus, but he was poor in the Sydney Cup and that has to be a concern.   Vow And Declare - The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner who came into that race having finished 2nd in the Caulfield Cup. Things went badly wrong for him after the Melbourne Cup win though and he just hadn't been in the same form. This prep however he has re-found his best form again. He was 3rd behind High Emocean over 2500m in September and then was 5th in the Bart Cummings over the same trip. This year he was 6th in the Caulfield Cup, but it was a run full pf promise as he plugged away well and bodes well for a decent run here. A top 6 showing wouldn't surprise, but at the same time it is hard to think he can win this given he hasn't won since his Cup win.   Young Werther - On his day he is capable of some useful form having finished 2nd in last year's Turnbull and he was 3rd in this year's renewal. Was only 8th in last year's Caulfield Cup though and finished 10th in the Cox Plate last time. To be fair that was probably as good as he could have hoped for as he wasn't beaten far at Moonee Valley. The trip has to be a concern as is the face his only win came in a maiden at Geelong over 1500m. It would be a little surprising if his 2nd win was the Melbourne Cup.   Hoo Ya Mal - Was a very surprising 2nd in the Derby this year behind Desert Crown and after that he was sold for a small fortune with this race as the target. He was 3rd just behind Deauville Legend in the Gordon Stakes and then won the March Stakes at very short odds. He then ran in the St Leger and ran very poorly. The ground was given as an excuse which is worrying given it will be a wet track here as well. I suspect he is better than he showed at Doncaster and I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but at the same time he doesn't jump out as a horse I want to back.   Serpentine - After a Derby 2nd we have a Derby winner in the shape of Serpintine. He had shown nothing at all in 4 starts in Australia and then all of a sudden he finds some form on Saturday when he was 2nd in the Archer Stakes over 2500m. I'm not sure the form of that race is especially strong though and given he tends to make the running his draw of 23 is just as problematic as 24 is for Kings Order.   Daqianseet Junior - This year's Adalaide Cup and followed that up with a 3rd behind Knights Order in the Sydney Cup. So we know he will stay, but the Adalaide Cup is never a strong race and he was 4.5L behind the winner in the Sydney Cup. His 3 runs this prep have been poor as well so looks to have a stiffish task to trouble the judge.    Grand Promenade - Finished a decent enough 6th in this race last year and has won here 3 times so those are the pluses, but he has been woeful this prep. He was a well beaten 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time and he usually struggles on a heavy track which is a big concern given the forecast so he so he wouldn't be for me.   Arapaho - Has had a very un-Australian like prep as he's been on the go since March and raced 14 times. Pluses are he likes a wet track, but to be honest that is about it. He's been running sound enough races and was 2nd to Stockman in the St Leger last time, but it's hard to see him being good enough to win this.   Emissary - Hugo Palmer trained this one back in 2019/20 and he managed to beat 1 home in Serpentine's Derby. Won a Listed Race at Caulfield in August, but was only 8th in the Herbert Power at Caulfield. He bounced back to form big style though when he took out the Geelong Cup, but there is every chance that improvement came because he was on a Good 4 and his runs on worse than a Soft 5 are not great. The 2nd in the Geelong Cup did win here on Saturday so at least the form has been boosted.   Lunar Flare - Won her way into this when winning the Bart Cummings a month ago beating Francesco Guardi who reversed the form in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup when Lunar Flare finished 2nd to him. They did finish in a bit of a heap in the Bart Cummings though which makes me think it might not be strong form race and I would have preferred Francesco Guardi's chances had that one been running. Also, the only she raced over further than 2500m she was well beaten,   Smokin' Romans - Wasn't given the best of rides when sent off a short price favourite for the Caulfield Cup which came on the back of wins in the G3 Naturalism and the Turnbull. Finished 7th at Caulfield and he is better than that. The trip is an unknown, but he handles a wet track and whilst I wont be backing him a bold show would not be a surprise.   Tralee Rose - Was 9th in this last year after winning the Geelong Cup and doesn't come here in good form at all. Was 13th in the Caulfield Cup and whilst she was a bit unlucky not to finish closer that day she clearly comes here in much worse form than last year's race.   High Emocean - We know she handles a wet track so that is a big tick and she comes here in great form having won the Bendigo Cup last week. She was given a very good ride that day though so she might have been slightly flattered by that win and the Bendigo Cup isn't usually a key prep race for this.   Interpretation - Ex Aiden O'Brien who finished 4th behind Hurricane Lane in last year's St Leger. He has been running OK since coming to Australia and although on paper his 6th in the Geelong Cup wouldn't be good enough for this he was racing in the worst part of the track so you can forgive him. He should stay this trip given his form over here and he could be one that is flying under the radar as he hasn't been able to show his peak form in Australia. He will also feel like he's running lose with just 50kg on his back.   Realm Of Flowers - Her last run in the Metropolitan a month ago when running very well to just be beaten into 3rd. She won the Andrew Ramsden here in 2021 and was only just beaten in the Sandown Cup (3200m) in 2020 so the trip isn't a concern. She has a chance, but overall there are others I prefer to back.   Verdict - Just like last year's race it doesn't look that strong a renewal and in fact it probably is an even weaker contest. In a normal year I don't think Deauville Legend would be such a short price favourite, but clearly he has some of the leading form for this. I do think though at 5/2 he is worth taking on and he helps create the market especially given bookies are offering extra places. For me the most likely winner is Without A Fight. I like his form in this country and this has been the target for him for some time. Verry Elleegant came from the same stall (18) last year and the 3 winners before that came from 12, 21 and 19 so his draw is not a negative. He should stay and he should handle to track as well. Everything looks in place for a big run and he can give the UK a 2nd win in the race. I am then going to take a couple from the Caulfield Cup. Montefillia put in a huge performance at Caulfield and she should be capable of going very close here on the back of that. Granted better luck she could easily be coming here as a Caulfield Cup winner. Duais is the other one to take from the race. She looks like she is running herself into form based on the Caulfield Cup effort and her form from last prep would see her a much shorter price than she currently is. Finally I am going to take a bit of a flyer with Interpretation. He has no weight on his back and on his form for Aiden O'Brien he looks very well handicapped. I don't think he's been able to show his best so far in Australia and whilst he does need to step up on what he has shown the fact he gets in with just 50kg is a big plus for him.   NB In Australia they only ever offer 3 places so Bet365's market at the moment is only to 3 places. They usually offer a UK only market where they offer more places, but it can be well hidden and I haven't found it as yet.   1 Without A Fight e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill (6 places) 2 Montefillia e/w @ 9/1 with Skybet (7 places) Bet365 are 11/1 3 Duais e/w @ 22/1 with William Hill (6 places) Bet365 are 25/1 4 Interpretation e/w @ 33/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (5 places) 28/1 Skybet 7 places Bet365 are 50/1

There might be any European trained runners in this year's Cox Plate, but in the shape of El Bodegon we do have a horse who is making its first start in Australia for Chris Waller having left James Ferguson's yard. There is also Zaaki who was with Sir Michael Stoute and Jamie Spencer has travelled to ride Gold Trip. Here are my thoughts on the 12 runners. The race is due off at 7.10am and is live on Sky Sports Racing.
Zaaki - Was set to be a short price favourite for this last year, but had to miss the race with a virus. He was going into that race in flying form and whilst he is still running well this prep he certainly isn't coming into this race in such strong form. He won the G2 Tramway at Radnwick before finishing 3rd to Alligator Blood in the Underwood and the same position to Anamoe in the Caulfield Stakes. No doubt he will run well again, but I find it hard to see him being good enough to win.
I'm Thunderstruck - The 2000m trip looked a query going into the Caulfield Stakes, but he finished a good 2nd to Anamoe in that contest. He took the G1 Makybe Diva at Flemington over 1600m before only coming 4th in the Underwood. He's won at the track before which is always handy round here and although I'm not sure he can reverse the Caulfield Stakes form he has solid top 3 claims.
Alligator Blood - He has led in his last 3 races and Moonee Valley has had a leader bias all season. The problem here however is he is drawn in 12 and it is going to be hard for him to get across to the rail and lead them all off from there. He was 2nd in the Makybe Diva before winning the Underwood. The concern though is he was only 5th in the Caulfield Stakes at his first go over 2000m. Given he is going to have to use a bit of energy if he wants to get over to the rail and lead I find it hard to see him staying well enough to reverse the form of last time.
Mr Brightside - Thought it was a solid enough run when 4th in the Caulfield Stakes last time and we know he loves Moonee Valley as he is 2/2 at the track albeit both races were over 1600m and not in the same league as this contest. his last start was the first over 2000m and he finished the race strongly so that shouldn't be a concern here. Given he loves it here he looks capable of outrunning his odds.
Mo'unga - Finished last in the Caulfield Stakes last time although he had been 2nd in the Underwood the time before and was 3rd in the Makybe Diva so he does have the talent to be close to some of these, but his 2000m form isn't great and he would be a surprise winner for me.
Gold Trip - Ran a hell of a race in the Caulfield Cup last week to only finish a short neck 2nd to the fast finishing Durston. He had to carry 6kg more than the winner so it was a very good performance. The fact it is cucking it down with rain as I type this on Friday morning is going to help him as he does love a wet track. Jamie Spencer has gone over for the ride and if ha handles the 7 day back up then he can run well, but he has only won once in 14 starts and as much as he is very consistent I am not sure he will be quite up to getting his 2nd career success in this.
Law Of Indices - Looks to have a big task on here as he has yet to run past 1600m and hasn't won over more than 1400m. He did run well in the Toorak Handicap over 1600m at Caulfield last time though and that was a new personal best so at least he comes here on an upward curve.
Young Werther - Was a very good 3rd in the Turnbull last time which gives him a chance here, but his only win come on debut in a maiden at Geelong and it is hard to see him making it 2 in a Cox Plate.
Maximal - It was too wet for him at Caulfield last week so was taken out of the Cup and the rain that is falling now isn't going to help his chances. Was 2nd in the Turnbull last time which was a good effort, but would be a bit of a surprise if he was good enough to win this and is another horse who has only won once (finished 2nd 7 times in 15 starts).
Anamoe - As much as I put up State Of Rest to win this race last year, I did think he was a little bit fortunate to keep the race in the stewards room and Anamoe could easily be coming here looking to be a duel winner. He has done nothing but continue to improve since and has now won 10 of his 19 starts including his last 3 which have all come in G1 contests. He took the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August and then last month he won the George Main over 1600m. He continued his build up to this when beating a few of these in the Caulfield Stakes last time and I just don't see how any of those in behind can reverse form. He has a lovely draw in 4 and he is the one the all have to beat.
Profondo - Needs a good track and even then I would doubt he would be good enough to win this and looks to have an uphill task.
El Bodegon - Arguably he doesn't have the same level of form as plenty of the Europeans and ex Europeans have come into this race with, but he still has some very strong form in the context of this race. A year ago he landed the G! Criterium de Saint-Cloud over this trip. This year he has yet to win, but after disappointing in the Dante he has run some very good races. He was 2nd in the Prix du Jockey Club and if the winner of that was running in this he would be favourite. He was then a solid enough 3rd in the Grand Prix de Paris and finished in the same position in the Great Voltigeur. They were both over 2400m and I don't think he stays that trip so dropping back down to 2000m should be ideal. He wants every bit of rain that falls because he I think he needs a soft track to be at his best. He is also quite a small horse so you would think this tight track should also be ideal for him and if the track is in the Soft range then he has a strong chance.
Verdict - For me Anamoe is the best WFA horse in Australia right now and he looks primed to go 1 place better than he did in this race last year. He rates a strong selection, but if there is one horse who could beat him then it is El Bodegan for me. He brings different formlines into the race and has been finishing placed to horses who would have a great chance in this. Back down in trip should suit and if it is soft then he is worth having a saver on.
Anamoe @ 6/4 with Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill
El Bodegon @ 11/2 with Betfair and Bet365

Blyth Spartans v Wrexham Clearly Wrexham should be odds on to win this, but I can't resist having a small bet on the home team at 20/1. We know Wrexham don't travel well and although Blyth are hardly one of the better Step 2 sides they might be able to cause them some problems. I'm not sure Parkinson will want to risk some of his stars either which will as well. Also if Wrexham defend as well as they did against Barnet last week then Blyth have a great chance of getting a goal at the very least.   Barnet v Weston-Super-Mare Speaking of Barnet they clearly didn't defend very well either and are conceding goals for fun at the moment. The have let in 20 goals in their last 4 games and have kept just 2 clean sheets all season as well. Weston are having a cracking season so far and are the leading scorers in their league at the moment. They have real quality up front who if Barnet give them a chance can take full advantage. Barnet are scoring goals and whilst Weston will be facing very different players from who they face in the league, they have only conceded 7 goals this season. If they defend strongly then they could keep Barnet fairly quiet on that front. This is a tricky game for the home side and Weston are a spot of value to cause an upset.   Beckenham v Dagenham & Redbridge I am going to this game on Saturday as they are one of my local sides. I hadn't been to a Beckenham game prior to this season and I have been to see them in two earlier rounds of the competition including the previous round where they beat Binfield 5-3. Beckenham won their league last season and are playing at Step 4 for the 1st time. They are doing well as well and only lost their first game last Saturday when having 10 men for a lot of the game didn't help. They beat Dartford in the 2nd qualifying round so have already caused one upset and I think they have a chance of causing an even bigger one here. They have some good players in their team and striker Louis Theopanous would be the pick of them. He has been around Non-League for a while now and he is capable of scoring goals. I'm certain he will get chances in this game as Dagenham love to concede chances. York had an xG of 3 against them on Tuesday night and really should have beaten them as the game ended 1-1. Apart from beating Chesterfield, Dagenham's away form has been pretty bad and with them suffering from a few injuries I just wonder if McMahon wont want to risk some of his stars. I suspect there will be plenty of goals in the game as both teams have seen plenty of goals in their games season. Dagenham will be dreading this game and I think Beckenham have it in them to reach the 1st round for the first time in what will be their 7th game in the competition already.   Boreham Wood v Wealdstone Last week we were on Wealdstone to win at home against Boreham Wood and they lost 2-1. The first half Wealdstone weren't great, but they were much better in the 2nd half especially after they went 2 down. The Boreham Wood 2nd goal was from a rebound from a penalty and then it was pretty much all Wealdstone. Their assistant manager said that he thought they had been excellent again and that they aren't getting the rewards for the performances. That they had 8 good chances to their four and should have had a stonewall penalty. He also thought they dominated the game and should have won and whilst that is probably stretching a bit, they did more than enough to get a point at least. I'm happy to back them again here as I think last week proved their isn't much between the two sides and after their good run in the FA Cup last season I reckon the priority will be the league for the home side whereas Wealdstone will see this as a good chance to pick up some money.   Buxton v Hyde This was a league game last season and I could have understood the prices then because Hyde weren't great last term and Buxton won the league. This season though Buxton are struggling to win matches in National League North, indeed at home they have only won once and have drawn 4 times. Hyde have been doing much better in the league this time around and have only lost twice whilst recording some good victories. They did lose to a team from the league below in the FA Trophy last week, but I would imagine this game was a distraction as it is a good chance for them to get into the 1st round. Buxton clearly should be favourites, but there isn't as big a difference as the bookies have in my view.   Maidenhead v Eastbourne This is just the type of game that Maidenhead will lose. They thrive in the big games against the big clubs, but play against a lesser side in the league and they tend to struggle. Maybe it being the Cup they will perform better, but I think it is worth taking a chance on Eastbourne causing an upset. As I highlighted last week Eastbourne are very inconsistent and it was one of their better performances when they ended up beating Weymouth 5-1 after going a goal down. If they are at their best and Maidenhead under perform then an upset has a decent chance of happening.   South Shields v Scunthorpe South Sheilds have got a very good side this season and one who would be in play-off contention in National League North in my view. I know Scunthorpe have improved since the change of manager, but I suspect there probably isn't a huge amount between these two sides and certainly not as much as the odds suggest so I am happy to back the home side to cause an upset.   Alfreton v Gloucester (National League North) I am backing my own side here who are a big price to beat Alfreton on Saturday. The home side have been hard to beat at home this season with only Chorley leaving with 3 points, but Gloucester getting Steve King in as manager is a huge plus for me. Over the years I have always let it known what a big fan I am of King at this level as he has proven time and time again what a good manager he is. He usually gets his sides into the play-offs at the very least and I am expecting a big improvement to come. I wasn't sure what would happen last week against Southport so I left the game alone and City came from 2 goals down to win 3-2 which was impressive especially given King had yet to sign any players. I am expecting new players to arrive although I also expect they wont be announced until Saturday so I have no names as of yet. What was good to see last week were the positive tactics that were used compared to the negative tactics of the previous manager. I don't think there is much between these two sides at all and the odds don't reflect that so I am happy to back an away win.   Blyth Spartans 0.5pts @ 20/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 12/1) Weston-Super-Mare 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 11/4) Beckenham 1pt @ 13/2 with William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred (15/2 with BetVictor and 7/1 with Skybet take up to 5/1) Wealdstone 1pt @ 29/10 with Betfair (take up to 2/1) Hyde 1pt @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power (take up to 5/2) Eastbourne 1pt @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred (take up 11/5) South Shields 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365 (14/5 with William Hill and take up to 2/1) Gloucester 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1)

Bromley v Gateshead Bromley look a fantastic bet this weekend. I wasn't sure about them earlier in the season and even though they are unbeaten at home they were struggling for goals early on. They drew 0-0 with Altrincham and then they only scored 1 goal against Torquay and Scunthorpe in two victories. Given they are 3 of the worst teams in the division you would have hoped for more. The goals have finally come though and they have beaten Eastleigh 2-1 and then Maidstone and Oldham 3-0. That was at home, but away from home they had been awful including losing 4-1 at Dagenham. However, in their last 2 away games which were last Saturday and Tuesday, they have drawn 2-2 at Solihull and won 2-0 at Boreham Wood. In that Solihull game they conceded 2 goals in injury so they really ought to have won as well. They have crept into 5th in the table and now they are scoring goals they are looking dangerous and possible play-off contenders at this stage. Gateshead have been pretty poor away from home so far this season. They did well enough in their opening game at Dagenham when getting a draw, but they have then lost at Dorking, Wrexham (understandable) and Halifax. They did win their last game against Maidenhead which was on the TV, but it wasn't a great game and Bromley are certainly better than them. I don't think they have played well since beating Maidstone 4-1 which was 5 games ago and Maidstone have been poor away from home. They lost 3-1 at home to Altrincham on Tuesday night and I think they will lose this as well. I think they should be much shorter than even money for this.   Wealdstone v Boreham Wood I don't get the prices for this game at all. Boreham Wood are clear favourites, but I think the home side should be. I know that Boreham Wood have yet to lose on the road, but they haven't really convinced in their last 2 away games when drawing at Gateshead and Yeovil. Also when they won 1-0 at Torquay it was the one game where Torquay were actually a bit unlucky as they had an xG of over 3 against them. They struggled in the first half against Maidstone last week although they were better in the 2nd half, but as mentioned above they lost to Bromley on Tuesday night. What is also key is they have a lot of injuries at the moment and that might mean they lose their first away game of the season. Every Wealdstone game has either been a draw or has been won by either team by a single goal which shows how hard they are to beat especially as they have only lost twice. Granted they have come in their last 3 games, but Southend and Solihull are two of the better sides in the league and I think better than Boreham Wood. 2/1 about a home win looks a fantastic price.   Hampton & Richmond v Welling I don't get the prices in this game either as Welling look too big to beat Hampton. One of my ante-post bets for the season Welling have been doing very well given they were 66/1. They have only lost twice and that was to Worthing and Chelmsford who are both above them in the table and Welling are 5th. They have drawn in their last 2 league games, but the first was a cracking 2-2 with Havant and the other was a 1-1 draw with Dover where they had an xG of 2.61 and had 24 shots so they really ought to have won. Granted they were poor in the FA Cup last week at Weymouth when losing 3-0, but they needed a replay to beat Fisher in the previous round and Fisher are a Step 5 side so clearly they have underperformed in the Cup compared to their league form. Hampton have lost half their games in the league and won just 3 of them. They just aren't as good as Welling for me who have are unbeaten so far away from home in the league having won 3 of their 4 games on the road.    Bromley 4pts @ Evs with Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes (21/20 with Betfred and 57/50 if you have a Unibet account and take up to 8/13) Wealdstone 2.5pts @ 2/1 with William Hill (21/10 with Betfred and take up to 11/8) Welling 3pts @ 11/5 with Bet365 (23/10 at Coral and Ladbrokes and take up to 6/4)

Some of you will be aware I have shares in a horse in Australia called Beneficio and she us back in action at Ballarat on Friday morning in Race 5 at 6.30am. She is actually up against an ex Godolphin horse who finished 2nd to Baaeed. I have looked at the 9 runners who line up in the Class 1 (for horses who have won 1 race) event.
Komachi - An ex-Godolphin horse who had 4 starts for Charlie Appleby in 2020 and 2021 and he won on his 2nd start at Newcastle in October 2020. That means we know he handles a synthetic track (as they call the AW in Australia) and he's bred too as well. He was then off until last June when he finished 2nd at Newmarket to a certain horse called Baaeed! Now he was beaten 7.5L so it wasn't like he got close to him which clearly isn't a shock, but as the analysis on the Racing Post says, he isn't always going to bump into one that smart! His last run was also at Newmarket but he was a well beaten 3rd of 4 and after that he was gelded. In November he was sold for £42k to his current owner and shipped to Australia. The win came over 1400m although he made his Australian debut on the turf course here over 1100m in May in a BM70. That day he was tapped for toe early having been slow away. In the straight he wasn't able to get a run and his jockey had to move him out to the outside to find a gap which didn't come until late on. After that he's flown home to be beaten 0.6L and you have to think with a clear run he wins. He's other two runs this year weren't quite as good and he was quite keen on both, especially last time at Bendigo where he got tired and was only 8th on a Heavy 8 track. He's not been seen for 77 days, but if he can run like he did in England and as he did in May then he is a big player here back on a synthetic track.     Ceejay - Ran on well at Pakenham last time over 1000m after jumping awkwardly. Stepping up in trip will suit, but the problem is that was only a BM58 and this is stronger.   Missed The Mark - Looks unders in the betting for me and I think that's based on the fact he hammered his rivals in a trail in July. For a start that was clearly a few weeks ago now, but the horse in 2nd is an exposed maiden so I don't think it says a huge amount. He took 5 runs to win although did it well back in February. He only beat in his first handicap start at Geelong next time, but he was forced out wide and over raced so he can be forgiven a bit for that, but he doesn't look as good as some of these.   Beneficio - On the face of it the 7th at Sandown last time was disappointing as she was well fancied to go very close. However the track was against her as you didn't want to be on the inside as everything came down the middle of the track. She also wasn't as fast away as she can be and although she helped make the running, I don't think that helped. She was found to have a hamstring injury after the race so if she picked that up at some point in the race then that wouldn't have helped either. The maiden win at Kyneton was impressive and then she was a superb 2nd in an open handicap at Caulfield and the winner has won a Listed race since and placed at Group level. That for me is the best Australian form going into the race. She has had a couple of jumpouts to work her way back up to fitness and did well last time. They were both on a synthetic track so that shouldn't be an issue and she comes here in good form.   Pentegra - Took a while to win his maiden and finally did it at Echuca back in March. Was 3rd in one of these on the turf track on his next start, but struggled in his next two starts. Had a spell and was 2nd 1st up, but that came in a 0-58 at Warracknabeal and this is stronger.   Teguila Spirit - All but one of her races has come at this venue although over 1000m or 1200m. Finished 2nd a couple of times in June and July before getting a deserved win in August. The problem is she went into handicap company on her next start and was only 5th in a BM58. This is stronger than that and she could be doing well to keep tabs on Beneficio in the early stages.   Red Stiletto - She's looking exposed compared to most of these and although has been placed 3 times she has been struggling to add to the one win and I'd be surprised if that turned into 2 here.   Royal Rebellion - Ex Queensland horse who made her debut in Victoria at Casterton last time in a 0-58 12 days ago when finishing 5th. Bit surprised if she was good enough.   Arachnattack - 1 win in 53 starts sums his ability up and going to struggle in this.   Verdict - Beneficio is the right favourite for me as the Caulfield 2nd is better than any of these have managed in Australia. Hopefully she is fast away from her low draw and is able to make all. The only slight query is the fitness in the final 50, but on ability it is hard to see most of these being capable of running her down. Komachi has to be the main danger. He showed good ability over here and clearly whilst finishing 2nd to Baaeed is a bit misleading as he was over 7L behind, it was still a strong effort in the context of this race. He was unlucky not to win 1st up in Australia and he can be forgiven a bit for his next two starts. Back onto a synthetic track is likely to help as well. He looks like being the one who will be chasing Beneficio down and I will be backing him as well as having a reverse forecast with the pair as well.   Beneficio @ 19/10 with Bet365 Komachi @ 9/2 with everyone

Went with Spennymoor and under 2.5 at 4/1 with 365 for the lols

Didn't have time to write previews but here are my bets for this afternoon.
Wealdstone v Yeovil - Wealdstone to win 1pt @ 31/20 with Bet365  (take up to 11/10) Barnet v Eastleigh - Eastleigh to win 1pt @ 12/5 with William Hill (13/5 with Bet365 take up to 21/10) AFC Telford v Buxton - AFC Telford to win 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill (13/9 with SBK take up to 6/5) Alfreton v Chorley - Alfreton to win 2.5pts @ 13/8 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (17/10 with Hills and take up to 6/5) Brackley v Kidderminster - Kidderminster to win 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill, BetVictor and Betfair (take up to 13/8) Darlington v Farsley Celtic - Farsley to win 1pt @ 29/10 with William Hill (3/1 with Bet365 and take up to 2/1) Dulwich Hamlet v Welling - Welling to win 1pt @ 100/30 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Hungerford v Weymouth - Weymouth to win 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 2/1)

Hailfax v Notts County As much as I thought Chesterfield should have beaten Notts County on Saturday you still have to give them credit for coming from 2 down. It was the subs made on the 60-minute mark which seemed to make the difference as it was the first time Cedwyn Scott had paired up with Langstaff after they both moved from Gateshead in the summer. Sam Austin also came on and it was Scott's pass to Austin and then Austin's superb cross which led to their 2nd goal. I'd imagine both might well start on Saturday and I think they will thrive against a struggling Halifax. Obviously, we opposed Halifax last week when they were favourites to win at Wealdstone and the bookies continue to price Halifax up as if they were last season's Halifax side who finished in the play-offs. They are though a mile away from that Halifax side with key players leaving and of course manager Pete Wild going to Barrow. They have yet to score a goal and the only game they have looked like scoring in was their defeat against Torquay where they should have won. I can't believe that County are going to give them much of look in here either and really it should be a routine victory for the away side on everything both sides have shown so far this season.   Woking v Wrexham The live game on BT Sport this Saturday is the first chance for viewers to watch the hot favourites for the title Wrexham. Wrexham fans and Phil Parkinson will have been very relieved that they put Maidstone to the sword last Saturday when they won 5-0 after what has been a very tough start to the season. It was probably the best fixture they could have had though as Maidstone were poor and made it very easy for Wrexham. Paul Mullin got a hat-trick and if you aren't playing well, he is going to have a field day. I think though that the win could well have just papered over the cracks and this game will be a much bigger test for them. This game was key last season as well as after a run of games at home which they won they then went to Woking and played poorly and lost. It was one of Darren Sarll's first games in charge of Woking as well and they have had a good start to this season as well after their defeat to York on the opening day. We were on Woking last week and they were unfortunate to lose to Barnet on Saturday. Barnet yet again created very few chances, 4, and just 2 of those were on target and they were the 2 goals. Barnet surely can't keep that up although they are at Chesterfield on Friday night and there is no value in opposing them as much as I think the home side will win. Back to this game though and I think Woking have more than enough to beat Wrexham especially if they put in the sort of performance, they have in their two away games so far this season where they have been very poor.   Gloucester City v Brackley (National League North) I am off to this game on Saturday and I do think I will be watching a home win. Gloucester have put in two good performances at home so far this season beating Boston and Peterborough Sports. Last season they were hard to beat at home as well and it was away where they struggled to pick up points especially when faced with a grass pitch. They were awful last Saturday at Blyth and for whatever reason the players just seem to struggle to play as well on grass as they can on a 3g pitch. Brackley finished 2nd in the league last season, but they look a shadow of the team who did that so far this season. Defence was their strong point last season, but after keeping a clean sheet in their opening game they have gone on to concede 7 goals, 3 of which came against Farsley on Saturday. Granted they played most of the game with 10 men, but it was still a poor performance. I'd have Gloucester as solid favourites to win this.   Scarborough v Boston (National League North) Another play-off side to be in poor form so far this season is Boston. We were really unlucky not to get paid out when I opposed them with Banbury last week and that is their only point so far this season. They were hammered 4-1 at home to Chorley last week which given Chorley hadn't really started the season stronger was a poor effort. Scarborough are unbeaten since losing to Brackley on day 1. They have beaten Hereford and Fylde and came back from 2 down to get a deserved point against Bradford Park Avenue. They deservedly beat Fylde last week as well away from home and back at home they can heap more misery on Boston.   Spennymoor v Darlington (National League North) Darlington's average xG for the season is 0.81 and they are yet to have a figure higher than 0.89 whilst their xG against is averaging at 1.29. If that continues, then clearly, they are going to lose more games than they win. I'm annoyed I didn't oppose them last week with Banbury who beat them 2-1, but I will take them on this week. Spennymoor got their first win of the season last week at Leamington and they are probably a bit unfortunate not to have more points on the board. After conceding 3 on the opening day in a draw against Hereford they have limited their opponents to xG's of 0.26, 0.2 and 0.43. Given Darlington are struggling to create chances it could well be that 1 goal is enough.   Notts County 2pts @ 5/4 with Bet365, Betfred, Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to Evs) Woking 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365 (SBK are 14/5 and take up to 11/5) Gloucester City 2pts @ 9/5 with Skybet and SBK (19/10 with Hills and take up to 5/4) Scarborough 1pt @ 7/5 with Coral and Ladbrokes (Bet365 are 29/20 and take up to 5/4) Spennymoor 1pt @ 6/5 with SBK, Coral and William Hill (take up to Evs)

Some of these prices have gone, but as always a min price is given for a guide as what to take.
Barnet v Woking
Not sure many people would have had Dean Brennan's Barnet as toping the table after 3 games, but that is where they are after wins against Bromley and Yeovil and a draw at Gateshead in between the two victories. However, when we look at the stats, I think they are over achieving at the moment. Halifax were awful against them in the opening day of the season only having an xG of 0.13 although Barnet's was just 0.81 albeit they scored twice. They have actually score twice in all 3 games so far and against Gateshead they had their highest xG of the season with 1.34, but they only had 5 shots during the game and Gateshead managed a higher xG. Then against Yeovil on Tuesday night they only had an xG of 0.88 and had just 7 shots. They have the finishing of Nicke Kabamba to thank as he scored both goals and his chip over the keeper for his 2nd was sublime. Yeovil really should have beaten them though as their xG was 1.72 and they created some really good chances. Clearly Barnet have been very clinical so far, but that won't last and I think Woking have got a huge chance of beating them here. I was confident they would beat Scunthorpe on Tuesday and they easily won 2-0. They had a massive 22 shots during the game and had an xG of 1.9. Kyran Lofthouse got both goals and his finish for the 2nd was great from a narrow angle. The one sight concern is that they were so bad in their opening game of the season at York and this is their first away game since, but it would be harsh to judge from a sample of one especially as it was the first game of the campaign. Woking have already been really well backed and you could have got as big as 5/2 which in all honestly would have been a max bet for me. The value isn't as big now so the stakes will not be as big, but I still make them a bet.
 
Dorking v Gateshead
3 games for Dorking and every game has not only been over 2.5 goals, but they have been over 3.5 goals! It was 4 in the opening game against Chesterfield and then 5 on the TV last Saturday against Oldham. On Tuesday night they made it 6 goals in a 4-2 victory over Maidstone. Not surprisingly we saw two big xG's with them having 2.81 and 2.82 from 19 and 22 shots respectively. If they want to follow the pattern then this game should have 7 goals on Saturday although I will settle for their just being over 2.5 goals again. I have mentioned on Twitter how I think we will see plenty of goals in Dorking games this season because of the way Marc White sets up the team. He has them as being very attacking and that means they will score goals, but it also leaves them short at the back as we have seen and Gateshead are more than capable of exploiting that Gateshead did really well to get a point against Notts County on Tuesday night and not surprisingly they weren't as attacking as they had been in their other two games against Barnet and Dagenham & Redbridge which both ended in 2-2 draws. I'm not sure I have ever put up an over 2.5 goals as it just isn't something I usually focus on, but here we have two teams capable of goals, but also capable of conceding goals if this game doesn't have over 2.5 goals we will have been very unfortunate. Also, crucially I don't think the bookies have caught up yet with how many goals we will see in Dorking games this season so I am happy to back over 2.5 goals here.
 
Notts County v Chesterfield
This is the live game on Saturday tea-time and it should be a cracker given we have two sides who ought to be in the play-offs at the very least come April. County have dominated possession in all 3 games they have played so far having recorded 74%. 75% and 69%. The problem is that possession hasn't been turned into victories and actually their lowest xG has come in their one victory so far against Maidenhead. Macaulay Langstaff scored two good goals against Maidenhead, but he hasn't looked quite as threatening in the other two games and I do wonder if he is going to be the main striker that they are looking for. Chesterfield didn't need Tshimanga on Tuesday night as he stayed on the bench, but they didn't need to risk him given they had a very comfortable 2-0 victory over Wrexham. I will talk more about how bad Wrexham were in the preview on their game, but Chesterfield had little problem in beating them recording a huge 21 shots for an xG of 1.76. Last season I thought Paul Cook looked clueless when he came in as Chesterfield manager, but the evidence on the first 3 games of the season is that he has learnt from last season and I might have got him wrong. I think this game is much closer than has been priced up so I am happy to back Chesterfield here.
 
Torquay v Boreham Wood
I'm really surprised by how bad Torquay have been so far this season. I really like Gary Johnson as a manager at this level as you probably know. Granted they lost some key players over the summer, but I trusted Johnson to get the right players in. The evidence so far is that apart from the goalkeeper Mark Halstead he looks to have a pretty weak team. Halstead's xCG is 5.48 so far this season and yet he has conceded just 1 goal. That goal came against Bromley on Tuesday night and it was a wonder strike which no keeper would have saved. The problem is he isn't always going to save them and the xG's against them really does tell a story. Against Oldham it was 1.81, against Halifax it was 3.31 and Bromley even topped that at a huge 4.46! Torquay's xG's have been 0.84, 0.33 and 0.36. The fact they beat Halifax last Saturday will be one of the most fortunate victories we will see this season as Halifax dominated them. I put Boreham Wood up to beat Aldershot on Tuesday and was very surprised they lost to them 2-1, but they will consider themselves unlucky as Aldershot's xG was only 0.79 and they only had 3 shots on target. Wood's xG was 1.83 and they had 19 shots. For me they are a better side than Torquay and the odds don't reflect that at all. Obviously, I am worried about Halstead's form, but there is no way Wood should be such a big price for this game and hopefully they can find the breakthrough.
 
Wealdstone v Halifax
It's been a very mixed back from Wealdstone this season as they have been really good twice when beating Bromley and Oldham, but they were awful when losing 1-0 in between to Eastleigh. An xG in that game of 0.03 tells you all you need to know about how well they played. The were good on the opening day of the season though winning 3-2 and then they did really well to win at Oldham on Tuesday night. The move for the 2nd goal could well end up as the best team goal we see all season in the National League. There was a huge 23 passes leading up to the goal and it is very unusual to see that sort of thing at this level even from the sides who like to pass the ball around. I thought they made some decent signings in the summer and they certainly have their strongest looking squad since getting promoted. Halifax obviously had that really high xG against Torquay, but I have a feeling that is more down to how bad Torquay are rather than how good Halifax are. They created very little against Barnet on the opening day and then on Tuesday night their main chance came from the Southend keeper giving the ball away so it wasn't even something they created. It was a game were both teams seemed to cancel each other out as there was little goalmouth action with Southend's only decent chance coming from the penalty spot. Halifax are strong favourites for the game and I just don't think they should be and these two sides are much closer ability wise than the betting suggests
 
Wrexham v Maidstone
Phil Parkinson is under huge pressure now and I think if Wrexham don't win this game then he might well be sacked. After Tuesday night's effort against Chesterfield the fans on Twitter were pretty unanimous about wanting him out and I totally agree with them. Based on their 3 performances so far this season it is clear to me that they won't win the league whilst he is still in charge. I even think he might have lost the dressing room given how poor they were against Yeovil and Chesterfield. Yeovil you could possibly forgive a little given how hot it was, but the effort on Tuesday was unforgivable given you are playing against one of your possible title rivals. They managed 7 shots, but all bar two of those were blocked and their xG was just 0.2! This is coming from a team who have Paul Mullin and Ollie Palmer in their side. They are clearly very short for this game and in truth they should win it given how superior their side is, but if it doesn't start going their way then the fans are going to get on the players backs quickly and the pressure will be huge. Maidstone lost out in that high scoring game with Dorking on Tuesday night, but that could have gone either way and they did well in their first two games against York and Altrincham. Clearly this is a very different contest to those 3 matches and in theory they should lose, but I think at a huge price they are worth chancing to pile more misery on Parkinson and Wrexham.
 
Woking 3pts @ 31/20 with Bet365 (8/5 with William Hill and take up to 11/10)
Dorking v Gateshead over 2.5 goals 4pts @ 17/20 with William Hill and Bet365 (take up to 4/7)
Chesterfield 1pt @ 21/10 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/4)
Boreham Wood 2pts @ 2/1 with BetVictor, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Ladbrokes (Betfred are 11/5 and take up to 6/4)
Wealdstone 2pts @ 12/5 with Betfred and William Hill (take up to 6/4)
Maidstone 1pt @ 17/2 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (9/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes take up to 5/1)
 
Cheshunt v St Albans (National League South) St Albans have done very little in 3 games so far and have not created much at all. Cheshunt haven't started life at this level too badly at all including beating Hampton. They look way over priced here.   Hungerford v Eastbourne (National League South) Just 2 goals in Hungerford games so far as they have had two 1-0 defeats and a 0-0 draw. Eastbourne meanwhile have seen plenty of goals in their games having scored 8 of them themselves. They did concede 4 against Bath and 3 against Ebbsfleet on Tuesday night, but given Hungerford haven't scored at all yet you get the feeling 1 goal might just be enough. They certainly look a better side than their hosts and happy to back them.   Peterborough Sports v Chester (National League North) I would make the home side favourites for this. They did deserve to lose to Gloucester on Tuesday, but as their manager said after the game their players had to go straight from work and Peterborough to Gloucester is not a quick journey. They still did fairly well though and they were especially impressive against Southport last Saturday. I'm not sure Chester are that great this season and I'm happy to take them on here.   Bowers & Pitsea v Herne Bay (Isthmian League) Bowers look a very poor side this season and they have lost both games so far. Herne had to play on Sunday and Tuesday. They lost to Potters Bar 1-0 but had an outfield player in goal for the last half hour or so. For them to then go and win 4-2 against Haringey just a couple of days later was a hell of an effort and odds against looks well worth taking.   Potters Bar v Billericay (Isthmian League) Speaking of Potters Bar they are value to win this game. After that win they only lost 1-0 to Bishops Stortford which given they are one of my bets for the title was a good effort just a couple of days after their opening game. They look way over priced against a Billericay side who lost to league newcomers Aveley on Tuesday having beaten Cray on the opening day.   Cheshunt 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair (12/5 with Bet365 and take up to 7/4) Eastbourne 2pts @ 6/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes (13/10 with Hills and take up to 10/11) Peterborough Sports 1pt @ 7/4 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (9/5 with Hills and take up to 6/4) Herne Bay 2pts @ 11/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 10/11) Potters Bar 1pt @ 14/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1)

We head to Coleraine on Sunday morning for 3 hurdles and a chase. It's a tricky card, but hopefully we can get another profit.
Race 1 Only one of the 10 runners has run in a hurdle race so far and Buffalo Bill shouldn't be good enough to win this. That makes this contest very tricky especially as all these horses are low grade ones on the flat so there isn't a classy flat horse in the field either. Having watched the hurdle trials and based on the flat runs it does look like Castrofrancaru is the one to beat. He looked good in his trial and beat and a couple of these in it. He has also won his last two on the flat so comes here in good form. El Campeon has shown little on the flat of late, but I did like his trial win last week. He looked really perked up for jumping hurdles and he should be able to make a better hurdler than flat horse. The one small concern is that maybe he might be too keen to see out the trip. Ultimately though this isn't really a race I want to get involved with from a betting point of view given Double You Tee is 2nd in the betting yet is unlikely to get a run as he's 3rd emergancy.    Race 2 If Heir To The Throne can handle the 7-day back-up then he looks the one to beat here. I thought he was very good at Sandown last week in what wasn't a bad race for the grade because I think a decent horse in Chains Of Honour was back in 3rd. He sat just off the decent pace which was set by Slipintothis who reoppeses here despite tiring badly into 5th place last week. His jockey told the stewards he needs a wetter track and the fact he won his maiden hurdle in a Heavy 10 backs that up. It looks like we will get similar ground to last week so I can't see the form being reversed. Mighty Oasis looks the biggest danger as if it wasn't for the superb Stern Idol he would be coming here looking for a 4-timer. As it is he won his maiden after some good place efforts, then bumped into Stern Idol before winning at Casterton 3 weeks of weeks ago. Tolemac was 1.5L behind in 2nd, but I think the form will be upheld. Mighty Oasis made a bit of an error at the last, but he picked up well again and was well on top at the line. The concern for me about his chances though is that he and Slipintothis might take each other on up front and set it up for the closer in Heir To The Throne. That is why I am siding with the Sandown winner.   Heir To The Throne 1pt @ 6/5 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes   Race 3 A tricky low-grade hurdle and you could put a few into the mix. Fort Charles hasn't really gone on from his Hamilton maiden win and he has 8.25L in front of Sky Hero who was 3rd that day. Sky Hero followed up at Warrnambool the following month and although he was only 4th back their last month it was behind Stern Idol so I don't think it was as bad a run as it looks on paper. He's not run since, but I think he can reverse the form with Fort Charles and maybe win this. Dr Dependable seemed to turn up in every maiden hurdle going, but he finally won one at Casterton last month. That was a good effort as he had Heir To The Throne in 2nd and American In Paris in 4th. Not surprisingly he was outclassed last week in the Grand National Hurdle. This is more his level. Bedford was 3rd behind Hostar and Heir To The Throne on his hurdles debut at Pakenham last month and its interesting they have chosen this contest over the maiden hurdle which he would have a very good chance in. Murrumbidgee River was very disappointing on hurdles debut, but he was found to be lame so that can be looked over. He's hardly one of his stables leading lights, but he would be a surprise winner. Finally, Rosie Rose was a solid 3rd on her hurdle debut at Pakenham and she has place claims at least.   I was going to back Bedford, but he's 11/10 and that is plenty short enough in a race like this. Instead, I will back Dr Dependable e/w as he will appreciate this class drop and he's a good a chance as any of landing this.   Dr Dependable 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Coral and Ladbrokes   Race 4 This is a clear class drop for the top weight Bee Tee Junior and if he was able to find his best then I think he can win this. The problem is as much as he travelled quite well into the race last week in the Crisp, I just thought it was disappointing he didn't really finish off the race all that well. I backed him last week, but even with the class drop I find it hard to fancy him here. Pateman is focusing on training on Sunday and he was 4 runners in this who all ran at Casterton last time. Historic was behind Laylite and Power Of Words when 4th to Elvision, but it was hist first run for a month after he wasn't able to go with Elvision over the same course and distance. Pateman has said that he eased off him after that tough race and he was under-cooked going into the race last time. The fact he was able to finish as close as he did given that was very creditable. He is 2/2 here having won this race in 2020 and then winning here last August at a meeting I think was moved from Casterton if I remember rightly. The biggest danger looks to be Under The Bridge. After making bad mistakes at the 18th fence twice at Warrnambool he finally got safely over that fence and won their last month. He beat Mustang Harry who franked the form by winning at Pakenham the next start. He was 3rd at the same meeting behind Valac who is better than any of these, so it was a good run as well. This looks a good race for him.   Roland Garros has been one I have put up before this season, but he just seems to have become disappointing and I don't think the ground will be soft enough. Another I have put up a few times is Onset although to much more success. She makes he chase debut here and I thought she did well enough in her one trial to date. She has run 12 times over hurdles since April and in March she also had 3 flat runs so for her to still be running as well as she is of great credit to her and her trainer. She ran perfectly well when 4th in the Grand National Hurdle last week and you couldn't rule her out here. San Remo was a close 3rd in this last year and he had a nice prep on the level last time to get him ready for this.   I was surprised to see Roland Garros as favourite and he is well worth taking on for me. Historic looks a big price and he is the main bet e/w, but I will also cover Under The Bridge as he looks the biggest danger.   Historic 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill Under The Bridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power