Racing Chat - Thursday 5th January

[Darran]

My Australian horse Beneficio is back out tomorrow morning (6am) in Race 8 at Benalla. As usual I will preview the race.

Prairie Fire - Has been running at Alice Springs of late and has moved to a Victorian based trainer. The quality of racing wouldn't be the strongest there and it would suggest he's going to struggle off top weight here.

Burning The Clock - Won a 0-58 and a BM58 in September and October last year and then for some reason connections ran him in a Listed race during the Melbourne Cup Carnival. That is basically the equivalent of a horse winning a Class 6 handicap here and then going to for a Listed Race at Royal Ascot. Still he did actually finish 8th of 11 so it wasn't a bad effort. He then went into BM64 level (same as this race) and only beat one home at Tatura. He's never won at this level before and it would be a surprise if he won this.

Red Octane - Likes to try and race on the speed although is drawn wide here in 12. Won 4 back in May at this level over 1200m although was poor next time. Then had a spell before only beating one home at Wangaratta last month. That was over 1000m and then stepped up to 1170m at the same track 3 weeks later and was a decent 3rd. If improving for that run wouldn't have an e/w chance in this.

Missed The Mark - Was only a 4 runner BM58 he won at Warracknabeal in October and was then a well beaten 5th in a 0-64 at Mornington. Is another who might try and front run and another one who has a double figure draw. Overall form looks like he wouldn't be good enough for this.

Beneficio - The people who run the syndicate are very confident that she can win this. She got a couple of nasty cuts when getting loose during a bit of work which is why she has been off since October. I don't think things have gone her way in her last two races and this is certainly weaker than both those contests. She impressed me in a jump out at Cranbourne 3 weeks ago and she does have a great 1st up record so it could well be 1st up is the time to catch her. The trainer is very happy with her and the yard have been firing in the winners in the last couple of weeks so that is another plus. The big negative though is the draw as she will be on the wide outside. Hopefully she will break as fast as she usually does and she can get ahead of the fellow front runners on her inside. I think there is a fair chance she can do that and if she does it is then just a case of if she can stay there in ahead of the finishers. 

Excel And Fly - Had to race wide with no cover at Werribee 1st up a month ago, but was only just caught late on by Head First to finish 3rd by 0.2L. Only had 5 starts and that race was the same level as this so another one with a good chance here.

Proud Conquest - Only had 4 starts and won on debut at Donald in May before being sent off a short price favourite for a handicap at Caulfield. He was very keen and caught wide and only beat one horse home. The problem is it has been a similar story in lesser races at Sandown and Kyneton so far this prep. I would say he should get cover from barrier 5, but he had 3 last time and still ended up wide with no cover. If he went and won it wouldn't surprise, but I can't be backing him until he shows more.

Turoar - Won his maiden on start number 8 at Wangaratta in December 21 but was then last in a BM64 over the same course and distance 3 weeks later. Only had one jump out a couple of weeks ago since so likely to need this.

Media Empire - Has yet to be placed at this level and would need to step up on his 1st up effort at Wangaratta a couple of weeks ago.

The Hay Flyer - Didn't show too much in her 1st two starts and then won on start 3 at Kyneton in May. Was well beaten in a BM58 at Kilmore the same month so would need to improve on that. She has won her last couple of jumpouts at Flemington so maybe she has improved again, but she needs to have done.

Head First - She has got in as a reserve and is set to go off favourite. She has been on the go since September,  but has been running pretty well on the whole and won at Werribee in BM64 company two starts back just getting up to beat Excel And Fly. Was 3rd over the same course and distance a couple of weeks later where I don't think she was given the best of rides as for me she needlessly got into a speed dual and didn't have much left late on. Drawn in 10, but clearly a leading contender.

Verdict - For me the ones to focus on are Red Octane, Beneficio, Excel And Fly and Head First. I will be backing Beneficio. Like I say the confidence is very high in the camp that she can win this and she certainly has the ability to do so. For me it will be the draw that beats her, but hopefully she can overcome that. I will also be backing Excel And Fly who should be able to get a better run than he did last time when just being caught by Head First. He should be fitter after that run as well and he can reverse the form with Head First if she does get a run.

Beneficio @ 4/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Excel And Fly @ 4/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

[kensland]

Double. 

3.15. Wolv. Hammy End       6/1      unpl

2.30. Ffos. Word Has it         3/1      unpl

singles & double. 

Good luck 

Edited January 5, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Wolverhampton. 

Double. 

2.15. Burback      11/4.

3.45. Ooh Is It       4/1

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

[Sporting Sam]

Lucky last. National hunt flat race 

Fos las 

4pm

HE'S A STEAL

Each way

 @ Triple figure odds.

Ryan potters runner has been pulled up in points last three runs.

Not one of the leading lights here and priced accordingly, but a decent jockey on board and while trainer is not noted for bumper glory, could easily run into a place over this shorter trip. More than likely set for jumps and will be schooling here. 

Trainer better known for pulling off touches over fences and has a very good string.

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by sporting sam

[black rabbit]

Primos Comet   3 45 Wol/    £ 25 ew   15/1  { 1/20th of a pt }

Sabbathical        1 30 Ffos/   £ 25 ew    14/1 { 1/20th of a pt }

Edited January 5, 2023 by black rabbit

[The Equaliser]

Is there any formula to work out whether a horse has been given a generous opening mark by the handicapper on debut and will have a good chance of winning? The other day I quite fancied Star Child trained by Archie Watson in the 2.30 at Chelmsford which won at 9/2, but this was just a hunch.  This also leads me to another question which is are there any statistics available to show which trainer(s) are adept at doing this? Perhaps Michael @MCLARKE might know the answer to this one?  

I will lay Demilion in the 1.15 at Wolves today for 2.04 at 2.94 = £2 v Liability of 3.88.  The new kid in town on his own now Charlie Johnston puts this one up as a handicap debutant against Hadley Park. The horse hasn't exactly set the world alight

2.45 Wolves Tollerton Forest 2.04 Lay at 1.64 = 2 v a liability of 1.31.  It is yet to win a race and Dafyre looks to be a worthy opponent.

6.00 Chelm Cool Lightening Lay 2.04 at 2.49 = 2 v 3.04 liability.  @The Brigadiergoes for Prospering ridden by Tom Marquand and Flying Kiss could be anything

6.12 staked with poss of 6 pts and 8.23 liability if all 3 win their races

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS UPDATE

Hadly Park was very disappointing in the first and I guess the "vet" got it right and the handicapper wrong with the favourite.

Dafyr ran badly in the second race and Cool Lightening only just beat Prospering by a short head

- 8.23 points today.  This makes my MTD -7.09

Back tomorrow with another thrilling instalment.

 

 

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Sporting Sam]

WOLVES 1245

Georgia vaseri

Win

Glint of an eye

Each way 

 

Wide open race and my dart falls on these two.

[MCLARKE]

54 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Is there any formula to work out whether a horse has been given a generous opening mark by the handicapper on debut and will have a good chance of winning? The other day I quite fancied Star Child trained by Archie Watson in the 2.30 at Chelmsford which won at 9/2, but this was just a hunch.  This also leads me to another question which is are there any statistics available to show which trainer(s) are adept at doing this? Perhaps Michael @MCLARKE might know the answer to this one?  

Not a big fan of trainer statistics to be honest although I'm open to persuasion. I think Mark Prescott was good at this but this soon became well known so any value quicky disappeared.

[fd1972uk]

115 wol demilion 

700 che mafia power b365

Boobed on 1245 wolv, went with fav on mb which I got but on b365 was originally going with Johnny boom but looked up speed ratings and went mcqueen, ah well.

[Sporting Sam]

At the post 

WOLVES 1.15

Hadley Park 

win 

runner up to rainstown last time and that one completed hat-trick last week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sporting Sam]

Well beaten was Hadley park.

1.30

Fos las

GREENNOCK ABBEY

Win

Was well clear of the third when winning chase handicap debut in November.

Small cover win on

BOLSOVER BILL 

[fd1972uk]

Thank God they corrected Demilion pronunciation on Sky, lol, seems someone must've said they had it wrong.

Easy win in end even getting boxed in, daughters name comes good again, onto Saturday with demitasse in SA, lol

[Ryanpete]

Kim Wexler 1.45 wolver 4/1 

Good luck guys 

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Is there any formula to work out whether a horse has been given a generous opening mark by the handicapper on debut and will have a good chance of winning? The other day I quite fancied Star Child trained by Archie Watson in the 2.30 at Chelmsford which won at 9/2, but this was just a hunch.  This also leads me to another question which is are there any statistics available to show which trainer(s) are adept at doing this? Perhaps Michael @MCLARKE might know the answer to this one?  

I will lay Demilion in the 1.15 at Wolves today for 2.04 at 2.94 = £2 v Liability of 3.88.  The new kid in town on his own now Charlie Johnston puts this one up as a handicap debutant against Hadley Park. The horse hasn't exactly set the world alight

2.45 Wolves Tollerton Forest 2.04 Lay at 1.64 = 2 v a liability of 1.31.  It is yet to win a race and Dafyre looks to be a worthy opponent.

6.00 Chelm Cool Lightening Lay 2.04 at 2.49 = 2 v 3.04 liability.  @The Brigadiergoes for Prospering ridden by Tom Marquand and Flying Kiss could be anything

6.12 staked with poss of 6 pts and 8.23 liability if all 3 win their races

Think you are overthinking lad. your cycling through different "systems" and getting the same losing results year on year. might be a good policy to clear everything out of your head and start picking horses based on what you see unless you don't actually watch racing that is, which is the impression i get from your "blogs" if not you need to start reading the racing results every day and start taking notes. My suggestion stick to 4 horses every day back the lucky 15 and the 4 singles to a stake you can afford that way you might win a few quid every now and again instead of a few pennies once in a blue moon. Like you we are all impressed with @The Brigadier so use his selection as your starter then pick/add 3 of your own. @MCLARKE was posting some decent winners with his 5 year old blog, did you back any? I backed a few because i saw some merit in it/them and i am very anti "others ideas" but like everybody i must remain open to new ideas and judge them on their merits and to be honest i haven't found any merit in anything you have ever posted apart from your participation in the site daily which if nothing else is commendable. you might think i am being a bit harsh here if so then you can back it in the 7:00 at Chelmsford sometimes coincidence bets come off.

Edited January 5, 2023 by Zilzalian

[Sporting Sam]

Fos las 3.30

DENTLEY DE MEE 

Win 

Good debut (after a break) saw this runner come just 3/4 lengths second off current mark.

Also on last winning mark. Just 1/20 in chases, but also 26 pounds below highest Chase mark.

Any improvement since debut run in November last year, would put this runner in a strong position.

Stable adept at getting one in order, so Dentley De Mee looks potentially well treated.

 

 

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by sporting sam

[The Equaliser]

52 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Think you are overthinking lad. your cycling through different "systems" and getting the same losing results year on year. might be a good policy to clear everything out of your head and start picking horses based on what you see unless you don't actually watch racing that is, which is the impression i get from your "blogs" if not you need to start reading the racing results every day and start taking notes. My suggestion stick to 4 horses every day back the lucky 15 and the 4 singles to a stake you can afford that way you might win a few quid every now and again instead of a few pennies once in a blue moon. Like you we are all impressed with @The Brigadier so use his selection as your starter then pick/add 3 of your own. @MCLARKE was posting some decent winners with his 5 year old blog, did you back any? I backed a few because i saw some merit in it/them and i am very anti "others ideas" but like everybody i must remain open to new ideas and judge them on their merits and to be honest i haven't found any merit in anything you have ever posted apart from your participation in the site daily which if nothing else is commendable. you might think i am being a bit harsh here if so then you can back it in the 7:00 at Chelmsford sometimes coincidence bets come off.

Many thanks for your helpful comments.  I'm going to stick with "lay" bets for a while.  I love the idea of the multiple bets and the big payouts but hate the long-losing sequences I endure when trying to get them.  Even if my next lay bet goes wrong I will only be down 7 points for the month.  

[MCLARKE]

23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for your helpful comments.  I'm going to stick with "lay" bets for a while.  I love the idea of the multiple bets and the big payouts but hate the long-losing sequences I endure when trying to get them.  Even if my next lay bet goes wrong I will only be down 7 points for the month.  

I think you will struggle to make a profit laying short priced favourites.

If I was you I would take advantage of the various bookmaker offers out there, this is still where I made most of my profits last year.

In particular Sky usually have an offer on TV days of money back as cash if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd etc, back the favourite in these races and you are just about guaranteed to make a profit. Also with Sky they offer good value in extra place races, 4 places where there are 8 / 9 runners, 5 places where there are 12-14 runners and any races where they offer 6 or more places. They also give you a £5 free bet if you bet £30 in a week.

Other bookmakers offer good offers as well but I am restricted with them so can't comment but if you have a look at them and ask for advise on here I'm sure we'll be able to guide you as to how you can make a profit from them.

 

[kensland]

Chelmsford. 

Single. 

6.30. Jumira Bridge      7/1     2nd 

Lucky 15.

7.00. Mifia Power     15/8   2nd 

7.30. Fact of Fable     11/4    unpl

8.00. Laurentia            5/1      3rd

8.30. Hooves like Jagger    11/8.    2nd 

Good luck all. 

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by kensland

[The Equaliser]

55 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I think you will struggle to make a profit laying short priced favourites.

If I was you I would take advantage of the various bookmaker offers out there, this is still where I made most of my profits last year.

In particular Sky usually have an offer on TV days of money back as cash if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd etc, back the favourite in these races and you are just about guaranteed to make a profit. Also with Sky they offer good value in extra place races, 4 places where there are 8 / 9 runners, 5 places where there are 12-14 runners and any races where they offer 6 or more places. They also give you a £5 free bet if you bet £30 in a week.

Other bookmakers offer good offers as well but I am restricted with them so can't comment but if you have a look at them and ask for advise on here I'm sure we'll be able to guide you as to how you can make a profit from them.

 

Very warm thanks for your comments.  This time last year I was down 19 pts by backing horses.  I just want to give "laying" a go this year and see how I get on.  I do realise that it is no cake walk to make a profit out of laying short priced selections.  As the year goes on I should pick up invaluable pointers as to which horses to "lay" and those to avoid.  It is the trying that gives me a buzz not necessarily being wonderfully successful.

[Darran]

Sadly the draw did for Beneficio in the end this morning. The jockey said after the race that she had to use to much energy at the start of the race to get across and she didn't have enough left late on. To be fair she did kick for home again in the straight and tried hard. I also just wonder if she may come on for the run this time. The 3 horses who filled the frame were all drawn low.

[jonjo]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for your helpful comments.  I'm going to stick with "lay" bets for a while.  I love the idea of the multiple bets and the big payouts but hate the long-losing sequences I endure when trying to get them.  Even if my next lay bet goes wrong I will only be down 7 points for the month.  

If you layed every horse that went off at a ISP of 11/10 or less then you would make a profit 9 years out of 10, the problem is that your ROI on Betfair will only be 1.05% and your losing runs will be many and up to 17, losing sequences can be as high as 1 in 24, you will need a huge bank and lots of patience and discipline, last year the profit would have been 38 points and the year before 49 points - not a lot from almost 3,000 seections. If you are more selective it can produce a better ROI but............................... 

[azzybear]

storm catcher 7.00

[azzybear]

eagle path 7.30 drop in grade can be backed ew at that price 

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for your helpful comments.  I'm going to stick with "lay" bets for a while.  I love the idea of the multiple bets and the big payouts but hate the long-losing sequences I endure when trying to get them.  Even if my next lay bet goes wrong I will only be down 7 points for the month.  

 

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Think you are overthinking lad. your cycling through different "systems" and getting the same losing results year on year. might be a good policy to clear everything out of your head and start picking horses based on what you see unless you don't actually watch racing that is, which is the impression i get from your "blogs" if not you need to start reading the racing results every day and start taking notes. My suggestion stick to 4 horses every day back the lucky 15 and the 4 singles to a stake you can afford that way you might win a few quid every now and again instead of a few pennies once in a blue moon. Like you we are all impressed with @The Brigadier so use his selection as your starter then pick/add 3 of your own. @MCLARKE was posting some decent winners with his 5 year old blog, did you back any? I backed a few because i saw some merit in it/them and i am very anti "others ideas" but like everybody i must remain open to new ideas and judge them on their merits and to be honest i haven't found any merit in anything you have ever posted apart from your participation in the site daily which if nothing else is commendable. you might think i am being a bit harsh here if so then you can back it in the 7:00 at Chelmsford sometimes coincidence bets come off.

See a bit harsh a winning tip although a dead heat at 6/1 but was 9/1 when i gave it you.

[The Equaliser]

17 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

 

See a bit harsh a winning tip although a dead heat at 6/1 but was 9/1 when i gave it you.

Yes.  I put 3 pts win at 11.00 so I did win on it.  Just wished I had used it as the Nap instead of Prospering.  Three cheers for @The Brigadier and to you for pointing it out

[Bang on]

7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Is there any formula to work out whether a horse has been given a generous opening mark by the handicapper on debut and will have a good chance of winning? The other day I quite fancied Star Child trained by Archie Watson in the 2.30 at Chelmsford which won at 9/2, but this was just a hunch.  This also leads me to another question which is are there any statistics available to show which trainer(s) are adept at doing this? Perhaps Michael @MCLARKE might know the answer to this one?  

I will lay Demilion in the 1.15 at Wolves today for 2.04 at 2.94 = £2 v Liability of 3.88.  The new kid in town on his own now Charlie Johnston puts this one up as a handicap debutant against Hadley Park. The horse hasn't exactly set the world alight

2.45 Wolves Tollerton Forest 2.04 Lay at 1.64 = 2 v a liability of 1.31.  It is yet to win a race and Dafyre looks to be a worthy opponent.

6.00 Chelm Cool Lightening Lay 2.04 at 2.49 = 2 v 3.04 liability.  @The Brigadiergoes for Prospering ridden by Tom Marquand and Flying Kiss could be anything

6.12 staked with poss of 6 pts and 8.23 liability if all 3 win their races

If you are going to keep on doing 'lay' bets, I would look for a STRONG REASON to oppose, especially with favs. You need OTHER RUNNERS who can get your lay beat, your 3 lay selections today were all in races that were 'toss of a coin' (looked like just 2 strong candidates) and it went pear shaped. Personally I would rather back than lay.

As for the handicapper being generous, it's more a case of how much the trainer has in hand. The handicapper gets it right 'most of the time', but a shrewd trainer can be one step ahead. I would think twice before laying an unknown, look for 'exposed types' ... especially ones who have won a couple of races and the handicapper has taken decisive action.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, jonjo said:

If you layed every horse that went off at a ISP of 11/10 or less then you would make a profit 9 years out of 10, the problem is that your ROI on Betfair will only be 1.05% and your losing runs will be many and up to 17, losing sequences can be as high as 1 in 24, you will need a huge bank and lots of patience and discipline, last year the profit would have been 38 points and the year before 49 points - not a lot from almost 3,000 seections. If you are more selective it can produce a better ROI but............................... 

Very many thanks for this info.  I will now not be too discouraged when I hit losing runs.  I certainly won't be laying all the short-priced horses.  It occurs to me that no matter what I do I shall not incur a YTD loss of 352.37 as I did last year by backing the beasts.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Very warm thanks for your comments.  This time last year I was down 19 pts by backing horses.  I just want to give "laying" a go this year and see how I get on.  I do realise that it is no cake walk to make a profit out of laying short priced selections.  As the year goes on I should pick up invaluable pointers as to which horses to "lay" and those to avoid.  It is the trying that gives me a buzz not necessarily being wonderfully successful.

I was trying to point you in the right direction of almost guaranteed profits but if you want to ignore the advise then so be it.  

[Zilzalian]

6 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Yes.  I put 3 pts win at 11.00 so I did win on it.  Just wished I had used it as the Nap instead of Prospering.  Three cheers for @The Brigadier and to you for pointing it out

my second leg was sirius white so i got one going here, CO is 194 quid but will let it ride on night traveller and then it maybe bingo time. i just love these lucky 15's ?

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

I was trying to point you in the right direction of almost guaranteed profits but if you want to ignore the advise then so be it.  

Many thanks.  I will copy and save this information for future use.  If "lay" betting doesn't work out I will open an account with Skybet next year