Systemight

Simple one for me is always take the best price. Take the time to shop around. It can make a big difference to your profit and also minimise your loss if things aren't going right.

A 5/2 winner from three selections yesterday,none today,busy day tomorrow..
1.30 Ayr
MAGIC OF MILAN (NAP) - 10/3 Bet365
There has been plenty of evening support for MAGIC OF MILAN and it's easy to see why. Sam England's 6yo filly is at the top of her game at present winning over today's course and distance early last month before just being run out of it at Newcastle a week later.Follow a filly in form is the mantra i tend to abide by, and i see no reason to change that approach here...
2.35 Ayr
GLITTERING LOVE - 11/10 Bet365
GLITTERING LOVE looks to hold obvious claims and i was mildly surprised to see shades of odds against about his chance  in the market this evening. The selection has won 4 of his 5 runs in points and is unbeaten over fences under rules winning at Hexham and over today's course and distance last month.
3.05 Ayr
PETERS COUSIN - 13/8 Sky
Withdrawn late on from a Newcastle race last month,PETERS COUSIN can make up for lost time by taking this. The 6yo filly caught the eye when battling well to see off two rivals in a driving finish at Kelso in December,despite not appearing to fully know the job.She will this time
3.35 Ayr
ZALVADOS - 7/4 Bet365
ZALVADOS doesn't seem to win quite as often as he should,but the gelding has ability and should be able to see off his three rivals here. Irish raider Veinard has failed to complete in three of his last five outings,Raise a Spark refused when last seen at Haydock in December,while Effret Special hasn't been seen on a racecourse for over a year...

An Even money winner from two selections today(6/5 advised),two for tomorrow..
1.20 Newcastle
PETERS COUSIN - 2/1 Ladbrokes
Three last time out winners in this small but select field and i fancy it will be PETERS COUSIN who will come out on top. The selection had the speed to win a bumper at Carlisle and ran creditably when runner up on Hurdles debut at Ayr back in November. However it was the win at Kelso last time which caught the eye as the Nicky Richards trained filly showed a great attitude in getting home in front in a driving finish following a 5 furlong run in(two flights omitted).The runner up that day has won since,so the form has a solid look about it.
 
3.05 Newcastle
PETITIE GANACHE - 4/1 Ladbrokes
There was a lot to like about PETITIE GANACHE when winning for the first time(at the tenth attempt) earlier this month. Having his first run for 157 days,Nicky Richards chestnut gelding was clearly fancied (being backed into 11/4 favourtism), and was never really asked for maximum effort by Hughes in recording a near four length victory.He can defy the penalty.

An 11/4 winner from three selections today,two for tomorrow...
1.30 Fontwell 
MAGIC DANCER - 5/2 Bet365
Both Dream Du Grand Val and Twenty Twenty are lightly raced types who have scope to improve,but i prefer the claims of the much more proven MAGIC DANCER to prevail here. The selection signaled a return to form when 2nd to the progressive Oakley at Kempton two weeks ago,keeping on well only to be caught half way up the run in.Off the same mark in similar looking company,his turn may not be too far away.
 
4.00 Fontwell
URBANIST - 7/4 Hills
For whatever reason trainer Dr Richard Newland does seem to like a Sunday winner and in the shape of URBANIST looks set to notch up another one. Well backed when a beaten favourite at Bangor 19 days ago,the gelding made amends last time at Exeter always travelling like the best horse in the race before coming home a comfortable three quarter of a length winner from Big Time Frank.
Both of the above mentioned races were over fences,so connections have rather shrewdly reverted the selection back over timber today so that he can run off the same handicap mark as when winning a week ago.The long time absent Goodnitesweetheart is the potential fly in the ointment

A 7/2 winner from my two selections today,three for tomorrow..
12.55 Kelso
ITS ALL A LARK - 11/4 Hills
Abbie McCain is a talented jockey at this level and she looks to hold a winning chance riding ITS ALL A LARK for her father. Donald McCain's bay filly is very much an unknown quantity here,racing for the first time from this stable.The selection however has shown ability in points and wouldn't need to be much out of the ordinary to take this.It's interesting that the McCain father/daughter combination won this race last year with Craig Star.
1.25 Kelso
MIGHTY THUNDER - 9/4 Hills
MIGHTY THUNDER was possibly a lucky winner here when left clear at the last back in December. Nevertheless it was a step up on the geldings previous efforts and being only a six year old can continue on the upward curve. The fact the selection received reminders early on that day makes the win all the more meritorious suggesting that the trip may possibly have been on the short side.Today's step up in distance against weaker opposition and with cheekpieces now added looks tailor made..
3.25 Kelso
MAHLERVOUS - 7/4 Hills
Warren Greatrex sends MAHLERVOUS on the long trip north from Lambourn and with the talented Sean Bowen aboard,his claims look obvious. The selection made an eyecatching seasonal debut run when 2nd of 14 in a competitive handicap chase at Cheltenham back in November following a 213 day off course absence.A disappointing run the following month at Aintree can be forgiven as the gelding most likely would have "bounced" that day. Given plenty of time to get over that Aintree run,there looks to be no excuses now following a recent wind op...

One from each meeting:
555 Wol: Captain Dan 13/8
330 Sed: Windsor Avenue 11/8
130 War: Yellow Dockets 5/4
14/1 Treble

No joy with my two selections today,two for tomorrow...
2.40 Warwick
CAPTAIN CARGO - 10/3 Bet365
There was a lot to like about CAPTAIN CARGO'S 2nd over today's course and distance last time out,and he looks the value pick to take this competitive heat. Carolyn Bailey's seven year old was having his first run for 52 days in the above mentioned 15 runner handicap, yet was the only one to worry the eventual winner(and much more experienced) His Dream on the run in. Having had just the three runs to date there will be plenty of improvement to come,the gelding can make light work of his three pound penalty.
3.10 Warwick
PADDY THE CHEF - 9/4 Sky
Both Darlyn and Dyliev have the form in the book which entitles them to run well here but PADDY THE CHEF looks the one who could potentially be ahead of the handicapper. The four year old had ability on the flat and has shown up well on both outings over hurdles to date being in the frame on each occasion. The selection was the only one to get anywhere near the long odds on winner Torpillo up the home straight at Sandown last time before paying late on for that effort. Conditions wont be anywhere near as testing this time..

No luck with out one selection today,two for tomorrow....
1.10 Exeter
TRANS EXPRESS - 7/2 Bet365
An open enough contest to start and with TRANS EXPRESS you know exactly what you are going to get. Susan Gardner's admirably consistent brown gelding comes here in top form following wins both here and at Leicester in December,before finishing an excellent 3rd over today's course and distance(well backed) earlier in the month.With several of these having questions to answer,he looks the one to beat..
2.20 Exeter
CATCHIN TIME - 3/1 Skybet
With several of these either disappointing or out of form,this looks an excellent opportunity for CATCHIN TIME to finally get on the scoresheet. The selection has been running well of late without managing to get his head in front,indeed has finished in the first four places in all seven runs this season.

No luck with out one selection today,two for tomorrow....
1.10 Exeter
TRANS EXPRESS - 7/2 Bet365
An open enough contest to start and with TRANS EXPRESS you know exactly what you are going to get. Susan Gardner's admirably consistent brown gelding comes here in top form following wins both here and at Leicester in December,before finishing an excellent 3rd over today's course and distance(well backed) earlier in the month.With several of these having questions to answer,he looks the one to beat..
2.20 Exeter
CATCHIN TIME - 3/1 Skybet
With several of these either disappointing or out of form,this looks an excellent opportunity for CATCHIN TIME to finally get on the scoresheet. The selection has been running well of late without managing to get his head in front,indeed has finished in the first four places in all seven runs this season.

2.35 Plumpton
MAUNA KEA - 2/1 Bet 365
Polly Gundry's MAUNA KEA is in a rich vein of form and the gelding is selected to notch up the hat trick.
A winner at Taunton and Exeter recently, i thought the selection was particularly impressive at Exeter last time winning by an eased down 10 lengths despite racing wide and being plenty keen enough early doors.There looks more to come..
4.10 Plumpton
GENEROUS JACK - 10/3 Bet 365
There has been a lot of support this evening for Chance it from 13/2 to as low as 9/4,he is respected but i prefer the claims of GENEROUS JACK.
Trainer Suzy Best does like a winner at this venue and her gelding showed a degree of potential when 3rd of 14 around here in early December.That run was all the more meritorious given it was his first run for 763 days.
The selection did disappoint next time but would almost certainly have "bounced",which makes him well worth another chance in this company.The fact that the blinkers have been reapplied for today is a bonus(not used last time but was previously..)

I have been putting Non-League football tips up on Punters Lounge for over 8 years now and for over a year they have been exclusively on this site. I haven't ventured too much into the horse racing section although I have put up some hunter chase previews in my time on the forums. I have been tipping in hunter chases online for 9 years now. The first 3 of those were free, but in 2013 I started charging for my previews and ran an email preview and review service for the next 6 years. Towards the end of the last hunter chase season Paul and me slightly randomly started emailing about what my hunter chase previews and to cut a long story short my previews for the 2019 season will now exclusively be on the Punters Lounge forums.   
The reason I focus on hunter chases when it comes to horse racing is that I firmly believe they are the best betting medium in racing. Because the form and video footage isn't widely available it means there are more mistakes made by the bookmakers when it comes to pricing them up and in that regards it is very much like Non-League football.
If you haven't seen one of my previews before then they are in-depth and I also write reviews of every race as well as I think that is just as important as writing the preview. I have added profit totals for the last 6 seasons. Now these totals are estimates rather than set in stone. First of all until last year I never put points totals to tips on the 3 hunter chase meetings so they aren't included prior to last year. Also I know people will get different prices from what I have put them up at. Sometimes bigger sometimes shorter so people's profits will be different. I also think the tips are only part of the package as I like to increase people's interest and knowledge on hunter chases in the same way I hope to do the same via my Non-League previews.
I haven't not made a profit yet, but I will never promise a profit as no one can. Hopefully though it will be another successful season. The first race is on Wednesday at Taunton and I am really looking forward to the season ahead. There are over 90 races this season and each separate day's action will have a new thread. Most previews will go up at some point the night before although occasionally it will be on the day of the race. Any questions then don't hesitate to ask.
2018 34pts
2017 29pts
2016 73pts
2015 120pts
2014 43pts
2013 30pts

Just to go back to what Systemight posted a few weeks ago, the LLR (longest losing run) is important, mainly to determine stake size, depending on how risk averse you are. For me, the drawdown combined with average winning odds gives an even clearer answer to the size of stake question. Taking the PL strike rate to be 27-28% we can expect a losing run of 30-31 in the worst case scenario. Say we then set our stakes at 2.5% or £25 with a £1,000 bank. Looks good with a 10 bet buffer to boot. Let's say we go on an expected 14 run losing streak and then hit a winner, losing streak over! But what if the winner's only 3/1 ? Sure, you make +3pts profit but you're still down 11 points. Let's say the next day you have another stinker of a day, losing 10 more points. Suddenly the longest losing run staking plan looks extremely shaky. That's without the worst case scenario. Not suggesting anyone here would be foolish enough to use this staking plan and I think Robinmgb is right only using £30 stakes with an £8,000 bank. Sometimes though, it's better to look like a fool than to say nothing

Thread going forward 2019
The main reason this thread started was to try and narrow down the vast amount of selections that the PL Tips publish every day. I started the tip back in August 2016 and after a years worth of data started to track the performances of each track, just to see if it was worth following anything significant.
With varying degrees of success I have now decided to take it to the next level in 2019 by trying to weed out some of the less profitable races that we have on each card. I think its important to stress I work on a ratings method, thats the only way I can trawl through the mass of races on a daily basis, the problems with this are obvious, certain races have many debutants which can not be rated, some races are just not suitable to the way i work such as Hunter Chases and Claiming races etc..
By doing the ratings for this long you get to know what is required to win a certain type of race. Lets say our 'top rated' horse in a Class 5 maiden has a figure of 75. Also in the line up is a debutant trained by John Gosden and another one trained by Willie Haggis. You just know the top rated one is not going to be good enough so your only hope is backing it each way - if the price is big enough. 
I've decided in such circumstances I just take a view and sometimes miss the race out all together, we may miss the odd winner but believe me they don't win very often.
So from Jan 1st 2019 i will try the new method
No Bumpers, No Hunter Chases, No Sellers or Claimers, Maidens/Novices reduced.
 
For anyone wanting to carry on following all of the selections they can always have a look at the Tips page as they will carry a full service as usual.

https://www.punterslounge.com/tips/free-horse-racing-tips

12.40 Exeter
EVIDENCE DE THAIX - 6/4 Bet 365

12.40 Exeter
EVIDENCE DE THAIX - 6/4 Bet 365
First run for 476 days and first run for the Hobbs stable.Sent off a weak 13/8 faverote, EVIDENCE DE THAIX looked likely to be 5th at best approaching the last at Lingfield that day,but kept up the gallop all the way to the line in the testing conditions to finish 2nd behind Shantung.Will get a true stamina test again here,but will undoubtedly strip much fitter this time..

1.55 Warwick 
BARBROOK STAR - 2/1 Bet 365
With the Phillip Hobbs stable in such good form(had a winner again at Leicester yesterday),the unexposed BARBROOK STAR looks the value pick here at the evening 2/1 quote.
Still a maiden after ten starts,the selection showed that chasing is going to be his game when a much improved 3rd of 14 in a competitive handicap at Chepstow three weeks ago on chase debut.
An unfancied 22/1 shot,the six year old jumped soundly, keeping on well all the way up the home straight.There looks to be plenty more to come...
3.05 Warwick
HARD STATION - 7/4 Skybet 
Front running trailblazers are a favorite of mine so HARD STATION was always going to be my pick here.
Richard Bandey's gelding was backed if defeat was out of the question when winning three weeks ago at Market Rasen. Making all,the selection found more when asked, showing a most likeable attitude to win gamely.The booking of Richard Johnson for the ride is most interesting..

2.00 Leicester
COUGAR KID(Nap) - 5/2 Skybet
I am a fan of five pound claimer Brody Hampson,but i think she should have won on COUGAR KID last time at Hereford.
  Giving precious ground away by racing extremely wide around the home turn,the seven year old gelding fairly flew up the home straight to go down narrowly by half a length to William H Bonney who was given a canny ride right up the inside by Hutchinson.
The selection would have won in another couple of strides that day and being a proven winner over today's course and distance, Brody will be keen to make amends in this weaker looking event..
 
2.30 Leicester
COTSWOLD WAY(N.B) -  6/4 Paddy Power
Making all and seeing out the trips really well when winning at both Huntingdon and Exeter recently, COTSWOLD WAY looks to have been found a good opportunity to gain his hat trick.
Hitting the line strongly on both occasions is a sign that there is more to come, and this lightly raced five year old should be able to make his own fractions before powering up that punishing hill..

2.30 Uttoxeter
VOLCANO (nap) - 7/4 SKY
It's interesting that VOLCANO is stepped up in trip on this his handicap debut,and he looks the one most likely here.
Nigel Twiston Davies's good looking grey has caught the eye on both occasions this term at Chepstow (2m) and Ffos Las (2m4f),plugging on late in the day after getting outpaced once turning for home.This extra stamina test looks exactly whats required and  is potentially a cut above these more exposed rivals..
 
1.00 Uttoxeter
ANTUNES (n.b) - 6/5 Bet365
The starting point at Uttoxeter currently is to pay close attention to anything saddled by Dan Skelton.
     This up and coming trainer has had at least one winner at well over 50% of the 20+ meetings run at the Staffordshire venue this year,with brother Harry riding in excess of 20 winners there.
 
The Skelton brothers combine here with ANTUNES and he gets the call in this very winnable contest.
This is the easiest task the lightly raced four year old gelding has faced to date,and will undoubtedly improve for his recent wind surgery.
 

2.30 Uttoxeter
VOLCANO (nap) - 7/4 SKY
It's interesting that VOLCANO is stepped up in trip on this his handicap debut,and he looks the one most likely here.
Nigel Twiston Davies's good looking grey has caught the eye on both occasions this term at Chepstow (2m) and Ffos Las (2m4f),plugging on late in the day after getting outpaced once turning for home.This extra stamina test looks exactly whats required and  is potentially a cut above these more exposed rivals..
 
1.00 Uttoxeter
ANTUNES (n.b) - 6/5 Bet365
The starting point at Uttoxeter currently is to pay close attention to anything saddled by Dan Skelton.
     This up and coming trainer has had at least one winner at well over 50% of the 20+ meetings run at the Staffordshire venue this year,with brother Harry riding in excess of 20 winners there.
 
The Skelton brothers combine here with ANTUNES and he gets the call in this very winnable contest.
This is the easiest task the lightly raced four year old gelding has faced to date,and will undoubtedly improve for his recent wind surgery.
 

Latest course stats (up to end of Oct)
Will do the Irish in the next few days.

Codes M=Mixed F=Flat Only J=Jumps Only
 

Thought it might be worth copying any decent stable tours and keeping them in one thread.
Feel free to add any you think would be of use.
I'll start by adding a very good bit Sam Twiston Davies did for the Post.
 
 

Dan Skelton
http://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/dan-skelton
 
Donald McCain
http://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/donald-mccain
 
David Pipe
http://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/david-pipe
 
Alan King
http://jumps.attheraces.com/stable-tours/alan-king
 
 

Nicky Henderson
http://jumps.attheraces.com/stable-tours/nicky-henderson
 
Paul Nicholls
http://jumps.attheraces.com/stable-tours/paul-nicholls
 
Philip Hobbs
http://jumps.attheraces.com/stable-tours/philip-hobbs
 
Colin Tizzard
http://jumps.attheraces.com/stable-tours/colin-tizzard
 
 

Gordon Elliott
http://jumps.attheraces.com/stable-tours/gordon-elliott
 
Willie Mullins
http://jumps.attheraces.com/stable-tours/willie-mullins
 
Jessica Harrington
http://jumps.attheraces.com/stable-tours/jessica-harrington
 
Joseph O'Brien
http://jumps.attheraces.com/stable-tours/joseph-o'brien
 
 
Henry de Bromhead
http://jumps.attheraces.com/stable-tours/henry-de-bromhead
 

There are infinite possibilities as to how one might choose to rate horses. That Uttoxeter is not on Billy's Top Ten atm has no bearing on the quality of track, races or members. IMHO the situation is very simple, for the last two years Billy's approach to ratings is running at a very small loss there. Joe Blow on the other hand has been running hot there for the last two years, his approach is just a different one and has yielded more winners. Things change and roles may be reversed over the next two years. Hence Uttoxeter could return to the Top Ten List. A dynamic approach to betting should yield more profit over time than a dogmatic approach. Once you stop reevaluating your particular position with historic data and replace with a belief you could lose any Edge you created. At the same time if your approach to ratings has intuition at it's foundation or core, then a belief is totally valid.