BillyHills Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 As with the Flat we are going to track the progress of the PL Tips on the top 10 Jump tracks. This will also include the best 3 AW tracks as we are in the new AW season. All prices are with bet365 or Paddy Power this time just avoid any confusion. £10 win or £5 EW singles. The tracks will be monitored every couple of months to see if any are performing better than the ones we are using. We will kick off with the following tracks: Catterick Ascot Kempton Wincanton Wolverhampton Chelmsford City Carlisle Musselburgh Taunton Kelso Calendar November 1st Wolves 2nd Kempton 3rd Ascot 4th Carlisle 5th Kempton 6th Kempton, Wolves 7th Musselburgh 8th Chelmsford 10th Chelmsford, Kelso, Wincanton 12th Carlisle, Kempton 13th Chelmsford 14th Kempton 15th Chelmsford, Taunton 16th Wolves 17th Wolves 19th Kempton 21st Kempton 22nd Wincanton, Wolves 23rd Ascot, Catterick, Kempton 24th Ascot, Wolves 26th Musselburgh, Kempton 28th Wolves 29th Chelmsford, Taunton foxinexile and roughbets 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 Day 1 5:10 Wolverhampton Little Miss Kodi 3.00 5:45 Wolverhampton Cockney Boy EW 11.00 6:15 Wolverhampton Arrowzone 4.00 6:45 Wolverhampton War Eagle 7.00 7:15 Wolverhampton Angel Alexander 2.20 7:45 Wolverhampton Captain Lars 6.00 8:15 Wolverhampton Spiritual Man 8.00 8:45 Wolverhampton Monumental Man 7.00 roughbets 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 1, 2018 Author Share Posted November 1, 2018 Results - 2 winners & 5 2nds!!!! Won 6/1, Won 9/1 Stakes: 80pts Returns: 170ptsTotals: + 90pts foxinexile, vikki37, daveg and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 1, 2018 Author Share Posted November 1, 2018 5:45 Kempton Flowing Clarets 6.50 6:15 Kempton Emilys Sea 5.00 6:45 Kempton Chloellie 7.50 7:15 Kempton Point In Time 6.50 7:45 Kempton Zlatan 5.00 8:15 Kempton Danecase 7.50 8:45 Kempton The Lacemaker 3.50 Baracca and daveg 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Systemight Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Will be very interested in following this thread as i have long believed that some tracks are much more reliable regarding form than others (and have profited from that theory). Slightly surprised that the Racecourse i am a member of (Uttoxeter) is not on your list,but that apart, i could not argue with any of your choices. I wish you well in your quest Billy...:) BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 12 hours ago, Systemight said: Will be very interested in following this thread as i have long believed that some tracks are much more reliable regarding form than others (and have profited from that theory). Slightly surprised that the Racecourse i am a member of (Uttoxeter) is not on your list,but that apart, i could not argue with any of your choices. I wish you well in your quest Billy...:) Hi mate, thanks. The courses are chosen from the figures over the last 2 years, they do change throughout the season as did the flat courses, which seemed to work. Just for interest Uttoxeter is in fact showing a loss of over £200 on my ratings to £20 stakes (Aug 2016/Aug 2018) Systemight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roughbets Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 13 hours ago, Systemight said: Will be very interested in following this thread as i have long believed that some tracks are much more reliable regarding form than others (and have profited from that theory). Slightly surprised that the Racecourse i am a member of (Uttoxeter) is not on your list,but that apart, i could not argue with any of your choices. I wish you well in your quest Billy...:) There are infinite possibilities as to how one might choose to rate horses. That Uttoxeter is not on Billy's Top Ten atm has no bearing on the quality of track, races or members. IMHO the situation is very simple, for the last two years Billy's approach to ratings is running at a very small loss there. Joe Blow on the other hand has been running hot there for the last two years, his approach is just a different one and has yielded more winners. Things change and roles may be reversed over the next two years. Hence Uttoxeter could return to the Top Ten List. A dynamic approach to betting should yield more profit over time than a dogmatic approach. Once you stop reevaluating your particular position with historic data and replace with a belief you could lose any Edge you created. At the same time if your approach to ratings has intuition at it's foundation or core, then a belief is totally valid. black rabbit, BillyHills and Systemight 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Results Won 7/1, Won 10/1, Won 100/30 Stakes: 70pts Returns: 233.33pts Totals: 323.33 Actually jumping tomorrow vikki37, Bang on and foxinexile 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 12:40 Ascot Pym 1.80 1:15 Ascot Its Got Legs EW 11.00 1:50 Ascot Amour de Nuit 5.50 2:25 Ascot Shantou Rock 2.25 3:00 Ascot Global Citizen 4.50 3:35 Ascot Adrien du Pont 7.00 4:05 Ascot Fubar 3.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 Results 2nd 10/1 EW Stakes 70pts Returns 15pts Totals: 268.33pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 1:00 Carlisle Storm Control 3.25 1:30 Carlisle Scotchtown 8.00 2:05 Carlisle Newstart EW 17.00 2:40 Carlisle Looksnowtlikebrian 5.00 3:10 Carlisle Chtibello 6.00 4:15 Carlisle Stormin Norman 5.00 3:45 Carlisle Cyrname NAP 3.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 Results Won 4/1 Stakes 70 Returns 50 Totals 248.33pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 4:30 Kempton Watheerah 2.62 5:00 Kempton Elenora Delight 4.00 5:30 Kempton Plunger 6.00 6:00 Kempton Crowned Eagle 2.62 6:30 Kempton Muneyra 3.00 7:00 Kempton Mr Minerals 6.00 7:30 Kempton Topology EW 9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Results Won 7/4, NR, Won 8/1 EW Stakes: 70pts Returns: 95.50pts Totals: 273.83pts vikki37 and foxinexile 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 4.30 Kempton Barrsbrook EW 9.00 5.00 Kempton Jahbath 2.00 5.30 Kempton Nivaldo (IRE) 3.25 6.00 Kempton Symphony (IRE) EW 13.00 6.30 Kempton Angel Islington (IRE) EW 12.00 7.00 Kempton Kamra (USA) 5.50 7.30 Kempton Galileos Spear (FR) 8.00 8.00 Kempton Take Two EW 9.00 12.05 Wolverhampton Leodis Dream (IRE) 2.10 12.35 Wolverhampton Second Collection 6.50 1.10 Wolverhampton Fortinbrass (IRE) 5.50 1.45 Wolverhampton Lord Murphy (IRE) 4.00 2.15 Wolverhampton Captain Lars (SAF) 4.00 2.50 Wolverhampton Arrowzone 4.50 3.25 Wolverhampton This Girl 2.75 3.55 Wolverhampton Celtic Artisan (IRE) EW 15.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 Results K: Won 1/1, Won 9/4, NR W: Won 11/10 Stakes: 160pts Returns: 83.50pts Totals: 197.33pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 12.45 Musselburgh Urban Kode (IRE) 13/2 1.15 Musselburgh Glenpark (FR) 5/1 1.50 Musselburgh Normal Norman 5/2 2.25 Musselburgh David John 5/1 3.00 Musselburgh Morning With Ivan EW 10/1 3.30 Musselburgh Lord Fendale (IRE) 2/1 5.20 Chelmsford City Saikung (IRE) 11/4 5.50 Chelmsford City Jack Nevison 3/1 6.20 Chelmsford City Coachella (IRE) 7/2 6.50 Chelmsford City Teenage Gal (IRE) EW 9/1 7.20 Chelmsford City Carvelas (IRE) 7/2 7.50 Chelmsford City Footsteps Forever (IRE) 5/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 Update later, just need to put this up 5.15 Chelmsford City Dubai Sunset (IRE) 7/2 5.45 Chelmsford City Antonia Clara 7/1 6.15 Chelmsford City Themaxwecan (IRE) 7/4 6.45 Chelmsford City Mushtaq (IRE) EW 8/1 7.15 Chelmsford City Areen Heart (FR) 3/1 7.45 Chelmsford City Breathtaking Look 6/4 8.15 Chelmsford City Princess Keira (IRE) 9/4 8.45 Chelmsford City Kraka (IRE) 6/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 Results Just 1 NR (110.00) Typical slow start to the jumps! Totals: + 87.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 Results Another loss today -70pts Total +17.33pts Thankfully we have a day off tomorrow Back with 3 meetings on Saturday foxinexile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 Big day ahead 4.30 Chelmsford City Swiss Chime EW 20/1 5.00 Chelmsford City True Belief (IRE) 8/15 5.30 Chelmsford City Massam 6/4 6.00 Chelmsford City Elegiac 11/2 6.30 Chelmsford City Monumental Man 4/1 7.00 Chelmsford City Young John (IRE) 4/7 7.30 Chelmsford City Squire 5/1 11.50 Kelso Aye Aye Charlie 1/5 12.15 Kelso Cool Mix 10/11 12.45 Kelso Jack Devine (IRE) 4/1 1.20 Kelso Fixed Rate 3/1 1.55 Kelso Chain Of Beacons 4/1 2.30 Kelso Court Dreaming (IRE) 5/1 3.05 Kelso Troubled Soul (IRE) 5/2 3.40 Kelso Glorious Lady (IRE) 6/4 12.40 Wincanton Grand Sancy 4/9 1.15 Wincanton Capeland (FR) 5/2 1.50 Wincanton Litterale Ci (FR) 4/1 2.25 Wincanton Bags Groove (IRE) 6/4 3.00 Wincanton We Have A Dream (FR) 11/4 3.35 Wincanton Ramses De Teillee (FR)EW 12/1 4.10 Wincanton Flic Ou Voyou 5/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 Results C: Won 5/1 : 60.00 K: Won 1/5, Won 4/1, Won 5/1, Won 5/1, Won 5/2 : 217.00 W: Won 4/6, Won 11/4, Won 6/4, Won 5/2: 114.17 Stakes: 220pts Returns: 391.17pts Totals: 188.50pts Next Up : Carlisle & Kempton on Monday foxinexile and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Latest course stats (up to end of Oct) Will do the Irish in the next few days. Codes M=Mixed F=Flat Only J=Jumps Only Systemight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 Time Track Top Rated Horse Odds 12.55 Carlisle Clondaw Anchor (IRE) 1.50 1.30 Carlisle Euxton Lane 2.88 2.05 Carlisle Baby Ticker EW 13.00 2.35 Carlisle Highway One O One EW 10.00 3.10 Carlisle Instant Replay (IRE) 7.00 3.40 Carlisle Mr Scrumpy 3.00 12.45 Kempton Epatante 2.00 1.15 Kempton Minella For Me (IRE) EW 9.50 1.50 Kempton Before Midnight 1.91 2.25 Kempton Reigning Supreme (IRE) 2.20 2.55 Kempton Haul Away (IRE) 6.50 3.30 Kempton Midnight Target 4.00 4.00 Kempton Tidal Watch (IRE) 4.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Results C: Won 1/2, Won 9/1 EW R4 K: Won 1/1, 3rd 17/2 EW, Won 5/4, Stakes: 130pts Returns: 128.81pts Totals : 187.31pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Time Track Top Rated Horse 4.15 Chelmsford City Fares Kodiac (IRE) 3.50 4.45 Chelmsford City Mujassam 3.00 5.15 Chelmsford City Firmament 3.50 5.45 Chelmsford City Flying Tiger (IRE) 4.33 6.15 Chelmsford City Mainsail Atlantic (USA) 4.00 6.45 Chelmsford City Clearance 2.87 7.15 Chelmsford City Ladweb 5.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Won 5/2, Won 2/1 R4 50p, plus 5 NR's Stakes: 70pts Returns: 105.00pts Total: 223.31pts foxinexile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Time Track Top Rated Horse Odds 4.30 Kempton Altaira EW 14/1 5.00 Kempton Lady Adelaide (IRE) 3/1 5.30 Kempton Arctic Ocean (IRE) 9/4 6.00 Kempton Frisella 8/13 6.30 Kempton Tin Hat (IRE) 7/1 7.00 Kempton Zain Hana 7/2 7.30 Kempton Cosmeapolitan 7/1 8.00 Kempton Karam Albaari EW 14/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Results Won 3/1, NR Stakes 80pts Returns: 50pts Totals: 193.31pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 Extra fixture at Kempton added Time Track Top Rated Horse 5.15 Chelmsford City California Love 1.91 5.45 Chelmsford City Jewel of The Sea EW 11.00 6.15 Chelmsford City Lily Ash (IRE) EW 9.00 6.45 Chelmsford City Clara Peeters 8.00 7.15 Chelmsford City Craving (IRE) EW 9.00 7.45 Chelmsford City Young John (IRE) 3.75 8.15 Chelmsford City River Cafe (IRE) EW 13.00 8.45 Chelmsford City Sussex Girl EW 10.00 4.30 Kempton Rambaldi (IRE) 7.00 5.00 Kempton Fearlessly (IRE) 2.10 5.30 Kempton Special Mission 6.50 6.00 Kempton Cry Wolf EW 9.00 6.30 Kempton Cool Echo EW 26.00 7.00 Kempton Runaiocht (IRE) EW 13.00 7.30 Kempton Deeds Not Words (IRE) 3.50 8.00 Kempton Shyarch 3.25 1.00 Taunton Neetside (IRE) 7.00 1.30 Taunton Beau Du Brizais (FR) 3.50 2.05 Taunton Southfield Torr 2.88 2.35 Taunton Misty Bloom (IRE) 1.33 3.10 Taunton Magical Thomas 2.87 3.40 Taunton Full (FR) 2.38 4.10 Taunton Southfield Stone 2.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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