Lemon Silk

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  1. Do PL tips really make a profit?

    Just to go back to what Systemight posted a few weeks ago, the LLR (longest losing run) is important, mainly to determine stake size, depending on how risk averse you are. For me, the drawdown combined with average winning odds gives an even clearer answer to the size of stake question. Taking the PL strike rate to be 27-28% we can expect a losing run of 30-31 in the worst case scenario. Say we then set our stakes at 2.5% or £25 with a £1,000 bank. Looks good with a 10 bet buffer to boot. Let's say we go on an expected 14 run losing streak and then hit a winner, losing streak over! But what if the winner's only 3/1 ? Sure, you make +3pts profit but you're still down 11 points. Let's say the next day you have another stinker of a day, losing 10 more points. Suddenly the longest losing run staking plan looks extremely shaky. That's without the worst case scenario. Not suggesting anyone here would be foolish enough to use this staking plan and I think Robinmgb is right only using £30 stakes with an £8,000 bank. Sometimes though, it's better to look like a fool than to say nothing
  2. AW Rating System

    Tomorrow's selections: 12:10 Lingfield Matterhorn 4:15 Kempton Port of Leith
  3. Do PL tips really make a profit?

    I think Alastair has hit it on the head there. Going on the profitability alone of PL tips I'd be using big stakes but as happened last month, there was a bad month. This is what we can't predict so a bank of 300pts+ would be my personal preference. When I started backing PL tips I caught them at a good time, quickly making £1,000+ from £7 bets, I could have easily lost the same amount. From there I went up to £10 and then £12.50 within the space of 3 months, making sure I made a decent profit at each staking level. That's my two cents
  4. AW Rating System

    Normal service resumed 4:30 Wolverhampton Steel Train 7th -10.78pts 6:00 Wolverhampton Shamshon 6th -10.78pts Total Profit/Loss -21.56pts Current Bank:: 1056.15pts
  5. AW Rating System

    MCLARKE thanks for highlighting this! I had to go back and look at what day the meeting was on, and yes, I made a mistake! I had my ratings done beforehand but somehow, and I'm not sure how, I got it into my head that there was no AW racing Saturday, and Sunday, as happens at this time of the year. I thought the next AW meeting was on Monday. PL doesn't tolerate aftertiming and neither do I.@ @BillyHills @Sir Puntalot please delete the post with the latest wins if needed
  6. AW Rating System

    Today's selections (and they really are for today ) 4:30 Wolverhampton Steel Train 6:00 Wolverhampton Shamshon
  7. AW Rating System

    The only snag is that I thought the meeting was on Monday, as you can see in the original post, didn't end up backing them as I usually do, thought it was too early then ...
  8. AW Rating System

    That's just what the doctor ordered! 5:15 Wolverhampton Tagle 1st @ 11.00 +88.26pts 6:45 Wolverhamton Deputise 1st @ 5.56 +40.24pts 7:45 Grey Britain 1st @ 3.33 +20.56pts Profit/loss: +149.06pts Current Bank 1077.71pts
  9. AW Rating System

    After a terrible run of 13 losers that shows no signs of stopping, the bank now stands at 928.65 pts Monday's selections: 5:15 Wolverhampton Tagle 6:45 Wolverhampton Deputise 7:45 Wolverhampton Grey Britain
  10. AW Rating System

    Posting that stat definitely didn't help The A/E is 1.09 and the archie score 15 if anyone still believes me -19.35pts today ... Tomorrow's selection: 5:15 Kempton Mans Not Trot 9.48pts
  11. AW Rating System

    I'll cut to the chase: -72.80pts. A miserable day with only two horses placing, beaten by a nk and 1/2 length and a short head. 'Nearly' still hasn't won a race though ... The system shows a LLR of 25 and a steady 9.8% ROI in the last 10 years of backtesting and the winter/spring is when it really gets going. Onwards and upwards! Tomorrow's selections: 6:30 Chelmsford CIty Cuttin' Edge 7:00 Chelmsford City Greatest Journey
  12. AW Rating System

    Big day today, let's hope for an upturn in form 12:00 Lingfield In The Cove 5:15 Newcastle Bahkit 5:30 Kempton Scofflaw 6:00 Kempton Tropics 6:15 Newcastle Mr Potter 7:15 Newcastle Fake News 7:45 Newcastle Breathoffreshair
  13. AW Rating System

    12:50 Lingfield Deeds Not Words 9th -10.62pts 3:20 Lingfield Come On Dave 8th -10.62 pts Profit/Loss: -21.24pts Current Bank: 1040.35pts
  14. AW Rating System

    Tomorrow's selections 12:50 Lingfield Deeds Not Words 3:20 Lingfield Come On Dave
  15. AW Rating System

    The finest of fine margins turning a 30pt loss into a 21pt profit 4:45 Wolverhampton Zipedeedodah 6th -10pts 4:45 Wolverhampton Decoration Of War 3rd -10pts 6:45 Wolverhampton Contrive 1st @ 5.34 +41.23pts Profit/Loss: +21.23pts Current Bank: 1061.59pts