yossa6133

Day 3 results, win and a couple of places returned £3.39. Banbridge letting down the each way acca finishing last.
 

That's a nice surprise ....returns 205.00

I am quite intrigued with this Ginger McCain horse Titanium Moon. Hughes here for 1 race in itself is unusual 80/1 even after the non runners looks well worth a risk.

Running total -£10
Bet 6
 

Hi all, well Day 3 and hope our luck now continues after yesterdays returns and following inform / plot trainers / horses 👌 🐎.......
 
Cleatus Poolaw, Gaoth Chuil, Gabbys Cross & Icare Allen All To Finish In Top 10 in  14.10  @ 5/1   😨
Crebilly, Theatre Man, Saint Felicien & Shakem Uparry  To Finish In The Top 10 In 16:10 @ 3/1    😨
Inothewayurthinkin, Cool Survivor, Angels Dawn & Whacker Clan To Finish In The Top 10 In 17:30 @ 11/2  😨
W Mullins To Train 2 Winners @ 9/4..............W Mullins To Train 3 Winners @ 11/1..........Dan Skelton To Train 2 Winners @ 12/1   WON  💷
Paul Townend To Ride 2 Winners @ 5/1     
1.30 Ginnys Destiny 11/2 EW  2nd  ( 3 places)  &  2.10 Cleatus Poolaw 15/2 EW   😨  ( 6 places )......EW double  😨
2.10  Gaoth Chuil 7/1 EW ( 6 places)  😨  &  2.50  Protektorat  10/1 EW  WON  ( 3 places )......  EW double  😨
2.50  Stage Star  13/2 EW  😨 ( 3 places )  &  3.30  Crambo  7/1 EW  😨  ( 4 places )......EW double  😨
2.50  Envoi Allen  5/2          Capodanno  8/1  EW  
3.30  Teahupoo  6/4  WON    & 11/8   WON   ( main bet )            Crambo  7/1 EW                     4 places
       🥂 🏆 well he delivered for us for Main bet this afternoon, so along with D Skelton 2 wins bet coming in, we have very nice profit 💷
 

A chance for Leeds to go top (on goal difference at least) and Ipswich to close the gap to 1 point while Leicester are distracted by the Cup. It's certainly shaping up into an interesting title race. Thoughts on these games? Please share them with us here.

Cheltenham 1.30 A field of eleven face the starter in the opener on day three for the 2M 4F Turners Novices’ Chase. Ireland have won nine of the 13 runnings of this contest but this years prize may be staying at home with Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Grey Dawning and Paul Nicholls’s Ginny’s Destiny fighting out the finish. The pair met over course and distance back in December with the latter coming out on top by 3/4L but Grey Dawning is now 3lb better off and made a race ending mistake two out that day. There probably won’t be much between them again with slight preference for Ginny’s Destiny who won the same novices’ handicap over course and distance as last year’s winner Stage Star from the same yard of Paul Nicholls. His record here now reads 7111 and he can take this with Harry Cobden doing the steering although Grey Dawning looks a massive danger..   GINNY’S DESTINY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill   Cheltenham 2.10 A maximum field of twenty four staying hurdlers line up for the wide open Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Final. Gordon Elliot has won three of the last six renewals and appears to hold a big chance of enhancing that record with his novice Cleatus Poolaw. He made a promising handicap debut when qualifying for this race when runner up at Naas in February over 2M 6 1/2F, keeping on well. Todays extra distance should suit him and he can run well along with another Irish runner in the shape of the Ted Walsh runner Garth Chuil. A winner of a qualifier at leopardstown over Christmas he went down by 3/4L in another qualifier to Maxxum again at Leopardstown five weeks later and will find conditions to suit here. Mel Rowley’s mudlark Kyntara is an outsider who could out run his odds but in a wide open heat it’s Cleatus Poolaw that has my vote with a saver on Cleatus Poolaw.   GARTH CHUIL 1 point each way @ 9/1 Coral 1/5th 123456 CLEATUS POOLAW 1/2 point each way @ 15/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Cheltenham 2.50 The Ryanair Chase is run over the intermediate trip of 2M 4 1/2F and has an open enough look about it this year. The ground appears to have scuppered the chances of Banbridge who was pulled out on the morning of the Turners last year when the ground turned soft. Last year’s winner Envoi Allen has to be in the shake up and although he’s now ten years old remains in top form, and he must go close. Last year’s Turners winner Stage Star has a good record at the track although has to put a poor effort on New Year’s Day in a handicap behind him when pulling up. The best outsider may be Richard Hobson’s Fugitif who prepped for this over too short a trip at Newbury when third to Elixir De Nutz and Jonbon. Bar the rank outsider Fil Dor there is actually only 10lb between the whole field. Trainer Henry De Bromhead is already on the scoresheet for the meeting and can back up last year’s success in this race with the smart Envoi Allen and Rachael Blackmore.   ENVOI ALLEN 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Cheltenham 3.30 Thirteen staying hurdlers go to post for the 3M Stayers’ Hurdle in which there is only officially 10lb between the whole field on ratings. The rain that fell earlier in the week will be ideal for Gordon Elliott’s Teahupoo who is well suited by the mud. He came into this race a year ago mind as 9/4 favourite when finishing third to Sire Du Berlais and although he can obviously win is scant value at around the 2/1 mark. An intriguing runner is Gavin Cromwell’s Flooring Porter who has an excellent record at the track which reads 1141 which includes the 2021 and 2022 runnings of tis race. Fourth last year he embarked on a chasing career this season winning here in October. He reverts to hurdles and with his liking for the track and trip could be the each way value in an open renewal in which the best of the home challenge is Fergal O’Brien’s Crambo.   FLOORING PORTER 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Cheltenham 4.10 The 2M 4 1/2F TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase may have twenty one runners but there’s plenty that are hard to fancy here and this may be fought out by the two novices who head the market in the shape of Jonjo O’Neill’s Crebilly and Richard Bandey’s Theatre Man. Slight preference is for the former who’s shown promise in good novice company on his three starts over fences and looks to have been allotted a very fair handicap mark. With luck in running he could rout this field with Theatre Man chasing him home. Novices have done well in this over the years and another novice Saint Felicien, trained by Gordon Elliott also has claims having won at Gowran Park last time out. Crebilly is the one but it’s well worth a small saver on the danger Theatre Man.   CREBILLY 2 points win 7/2 888sport THEATRE MAN 1 point win @ 5/1 888sport   Cheltenham 4.50 Eleven have declared for the Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and with Ireland having taken six of the eight runnings of this race once again have a very strong hand with the front two in the betting. Gordon Elliott has been waxing lyrical about his unbeaten five year old Brighterdaysahead and she will no doubt be hard to beat although like Willie Mullins’s Jade De Grugy, who is also unbeaten, has to carry a 5lb penalty for winning class 1 contests. One horse who’s done nothing wrong and has been well campaigned to avoid any penalties is the locally trained Dysart Enos. She’s won three bumpers and three novice hurdles with her head in her chest and in receipt of 5lb from the two Irish favourites may be the value bet for Fergal O’Brien and jockey Paddy Brennan. O’Brien has yet to have a winner at the festival but with a bit of luck today could be his day.   DYSART ENOS 1 point each way @ 9/2 BetVictor   Cheltenham 5.30 The finale for day three is the 3M 2F Kim Muir Handicap Chase for amateur riders. The well backed favourite is top weight Inothewayurthinkin trained by Gavin Cromwell in the colours of J P McManus and ridden by the top Irish amateur Derek O’Connor who took this back in 2019 on Any Second Now. He’s been well found in the market however and didn’t jump with fluency last time out, only his fifth ever chase start. He could well win here but with luck in running needed I’m prepared to have a swing at a big priced one each way with extra places. Step forward the Venetia Williams trained seven year old Demnat. Lightly raced, the full brother to high class 2 miler Sceau Royal, is stepping up markedly in trip and at his current odds is worth chancing that the longer trip may actually suit him. He made a winning debut for Williams at Ludlow when routing his field coasting home 15L to the good in February but flopped when dropping back to two miles a fortnight ago when he actually ran better than his finishing position of a 25L third looked as he skidded after jumping the last when 8L down. In the hope the step up in trip helps and with the assistance of female Irish amateur Aine O’Connor in the saddle he’s a value play for a stable that won this race with a 40/1 chance two years ago.   DEMNAT 1 point each way @ 33/1 bet365 1/5th 123456    

Day 2 picks
 

Day 2 picks
 

Day 1, couple of winners returned £4.33.
 
 

Cheltenham 1.30 Day two of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival kicks off with the 2M 5F Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle which has attracted a rather disappointing turnout of eight of which five are trained by Irish maestro Willie Mullins. His number one here is the six year old Ballyburn who will be hard to beat. He oozed class when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February clocking a very fast time. Paul Townend was on board that day and has picked him here ahead of his stable mates and although he’s a skinny price will be very tough to beat if in the same mood. Mullins’ Ile Atlantique is maybe the one to chase him home but it may well be the case of Ballyburn coming home clear of his field. The home team only have three chances with The Grey Man a total no hoper and both Ben Pauling’s Handstands and Nicky Henderson’s Jingko Blue having a mountain to climb on form with the favourite. Stablemate El Fabiolo looks a similarly good thing later so maybe a win double is the bet.   BALLYBURN & EL FABIOLO (3.30) 2 points win double 1/2 & 8/15 bet365 @ 1.3/1   Cheltenham 2.10 The 3M 110 yard Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase has disappointedly only attracted six runners. We have another Willie Mullins favourite in Fact To File who it seems the trainer is very sweet on. There is however a horse in here who, in my opinion, has done as much if not more than him over fences. That horse is the Paul Nicholls trained Stay Away Fay who won the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle last season, which is always a good guide to this novice chase the following year with six of the past 14 winners having contested the race the previous year. He’s made a good start to chasing winning twice at Exeter and Sandown (Giovinco back in second)and finishing a good third in open company to Capodanno in the Cotswolds Chase here on trials day on the new course. He can run a bit in snatches so Nicholls reaches for first time cheek pieces today which may help him if it comes to a battle. At the respective prices the value bet has to be Stay Away Fay.   STAY AWAY FAY 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365   Cheltenham 2.50  A near maximum field of twenty five assemble for the highly competitive Coral Cup run over 2M 5F. Last year’s winner Langer Dan is worth a close look now that he’s dropped to the exact same mark he won off last season with stomach ulcers the ‘excuse’ for his poor efforts this season. Expect him to run a lot better today. Willie Mullins saddles three with his handicap debutant Sa Majeste the most interesting. He could be chucked in but is priced accordingly. Nicky Henderson has three in this and all three have chances with Doddiethegreat just favoured over Lucky Place and First Street. He ran well in the Betfair Hurdle last time out, a race that was franked last weekend and with the step up in trip sure to suit, this lightly raced eight year old is the pick although I have to have a saver on his stable mate Lucky Place who is making his handicap debut and looks well treated on his runs behind smart novices Golden Ace and Gidleigh Park. The form of the Henderson’s stable has to be questioned though with his Tuesday runners (bar Champion Hurdle 3rd Lucia) running shockingly. Had they been been running better I would be splitting stakes on Doddiethegreat and Lucky Place but with the way the stable are running the bet is last year’s winner Langer Dan.   LANGER DAN 1 point each way @ 9/1 Unibet 1/5th 12345   Cheltenham 3.30 Just eight face the starter for the 2M Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Yet again we have a very warm Willie Mullins trained favourite in El Fabiolo. He’s six from six over fences including taking the Arkle Novices’ Chase at the meeting last year and the Simon Munir & Isaac Souede owned seven year old is hard to oppose. His chief rival is the Nicky Henderson trained Jonbon who was firmly put in his place by El Fabiolo in the Arkle last season going down by 5 1/2L and hardly boosted his chances for this when blundering his way around when beaten a neck by the re-opposing Elixir De Nutz here on trials day in the re-arranged Clarence House Stakes. Edwardstone employed new forcing tactics when blitzing his rivals at Newbury last time but is up against it in this company and this can and should go to the favourite bar any accidents.   Cheltenham 4.10 Six of the last 9 winners of this Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase have been won by Gigginstown Stud and they are once again well represented with two big chances in Punchestown banks winner Coko Beach and Delta Work who is the pick here having shown his liking for this unique course having won the last two renewals. Blinkers are added for the first time to Gordon Elliott’s eleven year old who teed up for his hat trick bid by running in a grade two hurdle at Navan in February. 2021 Gold Cup winner Minella Indo is not the force of old but should be competitive here and with heavy ground likely to be against Galvin and many others hard to fancy this may well be fought out by Coko Beach, Minella Indo and Delta Work with the latter the selection with Jack Kennedy on board.   DELTA WORK 1 point win @ 3/1 888sport.com   Cheltenham 4.50 A decent sized field of seventeen line up for the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase run over 2M. The race has an open look about and in a race that novice’s have a good record in it may be worth chancing Evan Williams’s Libberty Hunter. He’s won two of his three starts over fences (he fell 3 out on chase debut) including over course and distance on New Year’s Day by a length from Matata (who’s run well in defeat since). A 7lb rise for that victory may not be enough to stop him from running a big race in this open handicap. Last year’s winner Maskada (8lb higher today) and Dublin Racing Festival winner Madara are others likely to run well but with extra places it may be worth backing Libberty Hunter.   LIBBERTY HUNTER 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Cheltenham 5.30 The finale of day two is the 2M 87 yard Champion Bumper which has fallen to Ireland on 24 of the last 31 runnings with that man Willie Mullins winning the race a staggering twelve times in that time span. He saddles nine of the 24 runners here and must have a solid chance of winning it again with the likes of the Souede & Munir owned Jasmin De Vaux, a 15L winner at Naas or possibly the Paul Townend ridden Cantico. There maybe some value with the latter who by all accounts works as well as anything at Closutton and it looks significant that Townend has picked him ahead of other promising types. He couldn’t have done anymore than win a six runner Navan bumper by 6L when last seen so to small stakes he’s the each way pick. Paul Nicholls saddles a brace of runners in Quebecois and Teeshan with the latter a very interesting runner. An easy Irish point winner he made an impressive British rules debut when winning by 7L at Exeter and although Britain have a poor record in this race can run well and be involved in the finish.   CANTICO 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

Incoming predictable Irish domination 😐
 

Incoming predictable Irish domination 😐
 

Here is my full in-depth preview for the race on Friday. A smaller field than usual this year, but class wise I think it is up to scratch and it promises to be a good renewal. As ever hopefully I can point you in the way of the winner, but the main reason for the preview is that it provides you with the most in-depth preview on the race you will find and it provides you with the information to also come up with your own mind.    Billaway - You can't knock his record in the race having finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st and then fell at the 10th in the last 4 renewals. Given the rest of his form last season you have to think he would have been involved in the finish if he had got round. His jumping hasn't always been great though and that did finally tell last year and he also unseated at Punchestown. He bounced back from that to beat Vaucelet to win a decent pot at Downpatrick in May. He made his seasonal return later than usual this season and he has a terrible first time out record so I wasn't surprised to see him well behind in 3rd as they turned for home at Naas, but then as Its On The Line idled he railed strongly and it was no surprise that he traded very short in running as he looked like he was going to win. In the end Its On The Line picked up when he got to him and won by a head, but it was still a very good run. I just wonder that given he was having his prep later than usual if he was further forward than he usually is 1st up. I'm not sure he can win it again, but given his record in the race and the fact he ran so well last time suggests to me that if he gets round he isn't going to be far away at the finish.   D'Jango - Was one of the Judith Wilson owned horses that David Pipe trained who used to run what seemed like every week and he was rated just 100 over fences when picked up by new connections. Not surprisingly he went off a massive price for the opening hunter chase of the season, but he massively outran his odds when finishing a length 2nd to the very promising mare Regatta De Blanc. That horse has franked the form since as has the 3rd Bennys King and Shantou Flyer was behind in 5th. He then stayed on very strongly at Warwick to overhaul Tea Clipper after the last and they had pulled well clear of the others. He was possibly a little disappointing in the Walrus at Haydock last time when a fairly well beaten 4th behind Spyglass Hill, but it was really testing ground that day and I'm not sure he was totally in love with it. The handicapper has put him up 29lbs since he went hunter chasing and I think that is fair enough given the form he has shown. We know he stays well and the ground is clearly going to better than Haydock so whilst I doubt he will win, I think he can run well and finish in the top half.   Ferns Lock - There were 3 horses I saw last season who really impressed me and Ferns Lock was one of them. His wins at Fairyhouse where he beat Its On The Line and at Thurles where he beat Billaway were hugely impressive. Lots wanted him to go to Cheltenham on the back of that, but I thought they were right to give him more time as he needed more experience. He went to Gowran Park instead and although he won hard held his jumping wasn't quite as good as it had been and backed up my thinking that he needed another year. He was then surprisingly beaten at Fairyhouse when Annamix picked up the pieces after Ferns Lock and Billaway got racing from a fair way out. That run though did make me think that maybe his stamina wasn't quite what he needed to be to win this race. This season he returned at Dromahane and beat a useful field with ease. He then went to Down Royal and looked like he was going to win again having seen off the challenge of Ramillies, but he had no response to the fast finishing Its On The Line who beat him by 0.5L. That performance really set off the alarm bells about his stamina for 3m2f around Cheltenham. He bounced back to winning ways by beating a stablemate of Its On The Line with ease at Thurles. What was interesting though was that Ruby Walsh said after the race that he looks an Aintree horse not a Cheltenham horse and I completely agree with him. Even his trainer has come out and said he thinks he might be more of an Aintree horse. If he goes to Aintree I think he will be very hard to beat. On the whole he jumps well and he enjoys being out in front, but although he's not overly keen he is free running and I think at this stage of his career he just does a bit too much to win this race. The one thing in his favour on that front though is the smaller field than usual as he might get away with a bit of a freebie up front which wouldn't have been the case with a full field. My thinking is there is a strong chance of him being in front at the last, but that he will having nothing for the run-in and at least something will outstay him. The other thing to note is he is unlikely to get left alone on the front end and as we saw at Fairyhouse that isn't going to help him either. I suspect he is the best horse in the race ability wise and that he's better than a hunter chaser and if he did happen to stay he wins, but I don't think he will stay so am happy to take him on.   From The Heart - Has shown form that suggests he could win a hunter chase at some point, but nothing in his form suggests he can get anywhere near to winning this and his massive price reflects his chances.   Its On The Line - The horse I have thought would be the winner since he beat Ferns Lock at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Was a fast finishing 2nd to Premier Magic last year when having the cheekpieces on for the first time. Jumping 2 out you wouldn't have given him any hope of reaching the frame as he was looking pretty laboured and then all of a sudden late on his flying home and had clearly got going too late. He then fell at Aintree, but pretty much made all to win at Punchestown. He did race lazily that night, but what I liked was he kept finding for Derek and whilst Vaucelet had travelled better, he just couldn't get past him and a mistake at the last made no difference to the result for me. It was a bit of a surprise to see him run again in another point a couple of weeks later and finished 2nd to Rocky's Howya and both horses had long succesful seasons. This season he's 3/3. He won a point in November and then went to Down Royal when outstaying Its On The Line. Over 2f further I just don't see how the form can be reversed. We know Its On The Line is all about stamina and even if he gets outpaced we know he's highly likely to be finishing best of all. Onto that dramatic race at Naas where he first of all went toe to toe with Ramillies and once he saw him off at the last he then started to idle and Billaway came from nowhere looking like he was going to go straight pass him, but as soon as he got to Its On The Line he picked up again and he was a head in front at the line. For a horse to do that having gone hard in testing ground just shows he clearly had plenty left and that when it matters he will fight. I doubt he is going to be left in front here, but to be fair he has also shown he is hard to pass once he gets in front anyway even if he is. The trainer has said he will be putting the cheekpieces back on so that should bring about a little bit more as well. It could be argued that why should he beat Premier Magic based on last year's run, but I think he's improved and I doubt Premier Magic has given he is now 11. Clearly 7yos don't have a good recent record in the race, but he has a different profile to most good ones who have tired as we know he will stay and that he has the class to win. I think a fair few younger horses who have tried just haven't stayed which isn't a concern with him. The softer the ground the better as it will test turn it into more of a test, but it was decent ground when he won at Punchestown so it isn't crucial. JP has no doubt paid a few quid for him last week and I suspect he might well have next years Grand National in mind as much as this contest. He is the one they all have to beat.   Premier Magic - I was put off his chances for this race last year because of the way he ran in the race in 2022. He looked like he hated every second of it before pulling up and knowing that Brad wanted to run Highway Jewel instead it put me off backing him despite thinking he had the ability to run well. In 2022 he was on the inside, so Brad decided to ride him on the outside and it worked a treat. He was always going well and took the lead at 2 out before always holding the fast finishing Its On The Line. Somehow he recorded a higher RPR when winning on hunter chase night on his next start, but he beat a non stayer in Rebel Dawn Rising and the rest of the field were a poor bunch in the context of this race. He definitely achieved more winning this. This season he has won both his starts at Sheriff Hutton and Brocklesby Park. The issue I have though is neither of those efforts told us anything apart from he has four legs still. The 2nd and 3rd at Sheriff Hutton have both been stuffed in hunter chases recently and he was 1/10 at Brocklesby. There was certainly more depth to his wins prior to last year's race. I'm not saying for a second that he couldn't be another duel winner, but you are guessing how much ability he still retains because the two runs have told us nothing. He's now 11 and my thinking is that Its On The Line has improved so he will have to have done as well. He seems about the right price at this stage. The cheekpieces which he wore for both Cheltenham wins last season and have been missing this season go back on here.   Quintin's Man - We know the course and distance will hold no fears for him as he bolted up to win the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night last year. You can pick holes in that form, but it was still an impressive performance. He then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup and he hated the experience and never really looked happy at any stage. He started off the season with a couple of 3rds which didn't look overly hopeful, although the second of them at Chipley Park has worked out well. He certainly stepped up on those efforts at Wincanton when beaten a useful field in taking style. Lalor was 2nd there and Paul Nicholls tried to get him qualified for this, but he was only 4th at Taunton. I wouldn't have that effort knock the form because the race would have come soon enough and it was a hot race. Quintin's Man went to Haydock for the Walrus and whilst the trip was on the short side for him my thinking was the bottomless ground would make it such a test of stamina that it would be ideal for him. He did get himself outpaced though in the home straight, but I still thought he was going to win jumping the last, but I just wonder if the effort of getting to the 1st and 2nd paid on the run-in and he ended up in 3rd. I think he needs soft ground to be seen at his best and we know he stays well so he wouldn't be the worst outsider in the race.   Ramillies - Surprised that he is even running in this given the way he ran at Gowran Park on Saturday. He was legless after the last behind Its On The Line before that and I struggle to see him staying.   Samcro - Good old Samcro finally gets his chance to run in this race as he didn't qualify for hunter chases in the UK last year. A duel Festival winner and no doubt the horse that people will get excited about because on his old form he's easily the best horse in the race. He got up to a mark of 160 over fences and 163 over hurdles and there will be those out there who will presume that means he should win this. If he was still capable of running to anywhere near those marks though he wouldn't be hunter chasing. One day no doubt a horse with his sort of profile will win the race again, but horses like him just don't win this race anymore. If he had been able to run in teh race last year I'd have given him more of a chance as he won 3 points by 30L twice and 32L the other time. This season he looks to have gone backwards as he won by just 2.5L first time up, albeit snugly, and then last month he was only 3rd at Belharbour behind Lifetime Ambition. I thought he looked quite laboured in the finish that day and whilst the winner is apparently going to be aimed at Aintree it didn't look a performance of a horse who was going to be good enough to win this. My other concern is how he will fare going back under rules because he had really lost his way and he always had his quirks anyway. 9 of the last 10 winners of this have had to run to an RPR of 141 to win and I have big doubts about him running to that level anymore. He's a single figure price, but he should be around 25/1 for me. Also as much as he did win twice at The Festival he was also pulled up in the Ryanair the last time he ran here.   Shantou Flyer - Has an incredible record at Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2nd 5 times and 3rd 3 times in his 13 starts round here. His record at the Festival reads fell in the National Hunt Chase in 2016, 2nd beaten a neck in the Ultima of 2018, 2nd in the 2019 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2020 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2021 Kim Muir and 3rd in last years race 3L behind Premier Magic. That is some record and it would be no surprise if he was to run a huge race yet again. He was in really good form last season as he won hunter chases in really good style at Exeter and Stratford and the 2nd in the 4m race on hunter chase night was good because he just doesn't stay that far (had been 5th the year before in that contest). This season he won on his return at Larkhill and then was 5th in the opening hunter chase of the season behind Regatta De Blanc when he tried to keep up with Bennys King at the head of the race and they both went too quick. That trip would have been short enough in a race of that quality as well. He had his prep at Charlton Horethorne on Sunday where he actually won 2 races because he walked over in the hunt race before winning the Mixed Open beating Singapore Saga by a comfortable 3L. It would be some effort for him to finally win at the Cheltenham Festival at the age of 14, but some bookies will be offering extra places (probably down to 8 at least) and he would look a fair e/w bet taking the lower odds and extra places. To be honest a top 4 finish at normal odds might well show a return given his record at the meeting and Cheltenham overall.   Time Leader -  Joe O'Shea has had a knack of improving horses by stones over the years and this was another one. When he started hunter chasing he was rated 90 and he is now up to 128 and even that mark might under estimate him. He won twice at Leicester and Stratford last year, before surprisingly running just 6 days later in the mud at Carlisle over 3m which looked very unsuitable for him and so it proved as he pulled up. He then ran a massive race in the Aintree Foxhunters when staying on well to finish 5th 6.25L behind Famous Clermont. He made a bad mistake at the Chair that day and without it he would have gone closer. After that he won at Kelso and at Cartmel where he beat Gaboriot by 12L over just over 3m1f. That gives a hint that he might be capable of staying the trip here and whilst the 2nd as improved since it still gives a bit of value to the form given he has won 3 times this season. You will notice that Hannah Roach now trains him, but don't be fooled as Joe is very much still involved and he made a winning return before getting stuck in the mud at Chaddesley Corbett in December. It was no surprise he bounced back at Hereford in January and he won with loads in hand. The better the ground the better his chance because he doesn't seem to handle it testing and it wouldn't help his stamina either. If it is no worse than good to soft though it wouldn't surprise me if he went close, but the weather suggests that is unlikely to happen now.   Sine Nomine - I have been slow to warm to her because you have always been able to pick all sorts of holes in her rules form, but after her win at Wetherby I think it is just a case of her being a very good horse. She made her rules debut in the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night a couple of years ago and she jumped terribly although was still able to finish 3rd albeit a well beaten one. Last season she had 3 point starts before going to Stratford where she was foot perfect and beat Kaproyale easily. Now I wondered if she was the only one who liked the ground (the favourite didn't) and Kaproyale is better over shorter so I my thinking was she was the only one to have conditions to suit. She then went back to hunter chase night here and ran in the mares race and was beaten by Miss Seagreen. She travelled really well and looked the winner for a long way, but was just over hauled late on. She then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup which she won again after traveling strongly. The problem is the form isn't very strong with the 2nd having been stuffed in handicaps off marks in the low 100s since. First time out this season she was beaten at Alnwick in the mud by Wagner who whilst he has been a winning machine this season wouldn't be a fancy in this so again I wasn't overly strong on her going into Wetherby. On the face of it you could say she has beaten a non stayer in Bennys King, a horse who has needed his first two runs in Windsor Avenue and the favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground so again you can pick holes in the form. However she's travelled all over Bennys King for most of the home straight and therefore if the race had been over say 2m6f Sine Nomine still would have won. Given Bennys King form this season has been exceptional I think this effort is probably the best run from a British trained horse this season. I think she is at her best with a bit of cut in the ground and she is such a strong traveller whatever the conditions. There are two minor worries I have though. First of all her two worse runs under rules have both come at Cheltenham but the first was down to inexperience and I think she will be better off in a bigger field and truly run race which she didn't get last May. Secondly there has to be a small concern about her seeing out the trip given that defeat her last year. I know she won over further at Stratford, but it was a slowly run race and not a test at all. Secret Investor was 22 seconds quicker whilst carrying 7lbs more which shows how slow it was run. Maybe she might be one of these younger horses how doesn't quite see it out, but difference is she is a double figure price and she should be shorter.   Verdict - So we are going to have the smallest field for some time and I think the real reason for that is the lack of total no hopers in the race. As much as I am happy to take certain horses on, you can only say that From The Heart doesn't have any chance of winning the race. If you haven't backed Its On The Line yet I do think there is some juice in the price. He's the most likely winner for me and given the weather forecast it does look like its going to be on the softer side which isn't going to help Ferns Lock stamina. What will help him though is the smaller field as he might just get an easier time on the front end than I originally thought before the 6 day decs.    Sine Nomine is clear 2nd choice for me and I am happy to back her now. If there are only 13 runners then we might not see many, if any, bookies go 4 places and I think her price might come in. I think she has the best British form this season coming into the race as that Wetherby run was a top class effort. Those two slight concerns I mention in her profile are more than factored into the price for me and I think she should be a single figure price.   If Premier Magic is in the same form as last year then clearly he is going to go close, but it is impossible to know if he is or not based on his two point runs this season and he's the right sort of price at the moment. Billaway's record in the race means he must be respected and again looks the right sort of price. I couldn't put anyone off backing either though if you fancy them.   The final bet to be added is Quintin's Man. Conditions are certainly going to be in his favour and he is an out and out stayer so I certainly want him on side. If it had dried out more then I would have put Time Leader up, but conditions don't look like being ideal for him and that will put an extra test on his stamina. Bet365 have a 6 place market and couldn't put anyone off throwing a few quid at Shantou Flyer in that market given his record at Cheltenham.   Bets given on Monday Its On The Line 3pts @ 5/2 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Sine Nomine 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 10/1)   Bet added on Thursday Quintin's Man 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 16/1)

As per last year I'll donate any profits I make at Cheltenham to the charity

Hi all, well good luck with your 4 days of top racing at Cheltenham 🐎.....soooo some of our selections already backed 🤞
 
W Mullins trains 4 winners @ 11/8.............         State Man & Lossiemouth win by 3L @ 3/1........... G Elliott trains 2 winners  @ 4/1
Meetingofthewaters, The Goffer, Chianti Classico & Stumptown To Finish In The Top 10 @ 9/2 
State Man (15:30) To Win, Quilixios (14:10)  😨  & Ashroe Diamond (16:10) Both Top 4 & Chianti Classico (14:50) Top 7  @  7/1 
 
1.30     Tullyhill     7/2   (Daily Nap)                   Firefox   11/2
2.10     Il Etait Temps    6/1  EW      3RD                       Found a Fifty    8/1  EW     2ND                  3 places
2.50      Meetingofthewaters   5/1                       Stumptown  10/1 EW                               Eklat de Rire   20/1  EW                      6 places 
 

Luccia                                                         3 30 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        50/1       - 3rd
Cornel Mustard                                        3 30 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        90/1
Excello                                                        2 50 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        60/1 
Mordor                                                       4 50 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        70/1
Pedrito                                                       12 55 S-Cld         1/40th of a pt ew        12/1   { France} 
Busselton                                                   2 50 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew         80/1
Palamon                                                     4 50 Che/           1/40 th of a pt ew        25/1

Incoming predictable Irish domination 😐
 

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh.
Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple.
Race 1
There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. 
He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial.
Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat.
If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch.
Race 2
Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well.
Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill
Race 3
There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere.
Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. 
Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race.
Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him.
Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. 
I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat.
Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill
Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356
 

Ipswich 1.75
Southampton 1.44
RB Leipzig 1.12
£58 win treble

I couldn't really have been more wrong there. Ipswich got what they deserved with Cardiff scoring 2 in injury time. Cardiff were great for the first 20 and last 6 minutes, did nothing for the rest of the game. Ipswich had most of the ball but never looked like scoring, Moore was awful all game but scored with a half chance.

Banbury v Southport When Banbury first changed their manager they perked up and won a couple of games and drew against Chester. Since then though they have been dreadful and have lost 5 on the bounce conceding 3 on three occasions and 2 the other couple. It is looking like they will go down and they deserved to lose against Rushall on Tuesday night. Southport have picked up in recent weeks as well. They had expected losses to Chorley and Hereford in their last 6 games, but they have beaten Brackley, Scarborough and Warrington (who they beat 3-0 on Tuesday night) as well as drawing against Peterborough. Those points picked up have been crucial to seeing them try and pull away from the relegation zone. If these two continue in the form they have been then the away side are too big.   Blyth Spartans v Kings Lynn Another side who look like they will stay up now are Kings Lynn and they have had just one defeat in their last 8 games and are unbeaten in 6. They had a good win last Saturday when they beat South Sheilds 3-1. They travel to a Blyth side who are in desperate form having only picked up 2 points in their last 8 games. They will be looking nervously over their shoulders with the likes of Kings Lynn chasing them down and I like the look of an away win here.   Gloucester v Boston Typical of my own team to go and prove me wrong a couple of weeks ago when managing to get a win over Scarborough. We still look set for relegation, but I think we were able to take advantage of a Scarborough side who are in desperate form at the moment. Whilst Boston have been picking up more points they are now 3 without a win and they have lost their last 2. The draw was against Blyth and they lost to Buxton and Spennymoor which suggests to me that Gloucester might be able to get a result. The key thing for me is Boston aren't defending all that well and with Theo Robinson scoring goals for the home side I think there is a chance of a home win.   Spennymoor v Darlington I watched Darlington against Southport and Banbury after putting them up in both games and they were awful both times. The difference between then and having watched them beat Scunthorpe 4-0 on Tuesday night was staggering. Steve Watson has done a hell of a job and they will stay up now. They have won 4 on the bounce and 5 of their last 6. In those 6 games they have scored 16 times and conceded just 5. Now this will be far from a gimmie as Spennymoor have turned their season around as well. They are unbeaten in 6 and won 5 of those. It is also just 1 defeat in 9. However Darlington are way over priced for this and hopefully they can land this local derby.   Prices from Wednesday 7pm   Southport 2pts @ 8/5 with Paddy Power, Betfred and Betfair (Hills and Skybet are massive stand outs at 2/1 and take up to 5/4) Kings Lynn 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred (Skybet and Hills are massive stand outs at 21/10 and take up to 6/5) Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (Sky are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) Darlington 2pts @ 14/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 15/8

Had a good bet on Ipswich away at Cardiff on the exchange (1.86) I wasn't impressed at all with Cardiff, even though they won yesterday (Huddersfield were poor for some reason). Ipswich are strong home or away and find a way to win even when not at their best.
I've also backed Ipswich on the handicap -2 at 6/1, which is obviously tough to cover but hopefully this will be one way traffic.
 
If they don't win I'll try to get some money back on Southampton vs a freefalling Sunderland.

The calm before the storm! The ITV cameras are showing six races on Saturday before the onslaught to Prestbury Park next week and here are my thoughts on the six.
 
Sandown 1.50 The days ITV schedule starts with a seventeen runner 2M 4F EBF Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final. Paul Nicholls has taken two of the last four renewals with McFabulous and Complete Unknown and appears to hold anther decent chance with top weight Fire Flyer. He’s won two of his three starts over hurdles including when defeating the smart Secret Squirrel at Taunton last time out. This is his first start in a handicap with his mark of 127 looking fair enough. Harry Cobden is in the saddle and he looks to have a good chance. Jonjo O’Neill’s Hasthing is another with a good chance now stepping back up in trip off of what appears a fair mark.   FIRE FLYER 1 point each way @ 9/2 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   Sandown 2.25 The day’s feature race at the Esher track is the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle run over two miles. It features sixteen runners and as always has an open enough look about it. One horse who will love the soft conditions and has been running well all season is Olly Murphy’s Go Dante. He beat Doddiethegreat at Cheltenham in December and ran with plenty of credit when third in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury 57 days later to Iberico Lord who’s been supplemented this week for the Champion Hurdle. He had a few of these behind him that day and off of the same handicap mark and with Sean Bowen riding looks sure to give us a big run for our money each way with additional places.   GO DANTE 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Wolverhampton 2.40 Just six go to post for this listed 7F 36 yard Lady Wulfruna Stakes in which favourite Shouldhavebeenaring has a very solid look about him. Richard Hannon’s grey ended last season running creditably in group 1 events so this represents a big drop in class. He has 9lb and upwards in hand of his five rivals and if straight enough will be very hard to beat with Sean Levey in the saddle. The progressive Doctor Khan Junior who is five from seven on the all weather may end up the biggest threat to the pick but this is all about Shouldhavebeenaring.   SHOULDHAVEBEENARING 2 points win @ 11/8 bet365   Sandown 3.00 The British Stallion Studs EBF Mares National Hunt race is next up, a listed contest run over two miles with a dozen promising mares facing the judge here. Mark Walford’s Just Call Me Lucy ran right away with a bumper up at Carlisle when last seen, 89 days ago and is a player although I’m not too sure what she beat that day. I’m happy to take a chance on the only rules newcomer in the race and Dan Skelton’s Honky Tonk Highway. It looks significant that trainer Dan Skelton has thrown her straight into listed company for her debut under rules having looked useful when winning a 3M maiden point to point on heavy ground at Tattersalls Farm last October. The horse she beat that day Diva Luna is now in the hands of Ben Pauling and won a listed bumper at Market Rasen last month to massively frank the form. Skelton’s Milan mare was bought for £165,000 after her victory and t would be no shock if she was to strike at the first time of asking.   HONKY TONK HIGHWAY 1 point win @bet365   Wolverhampton 3.15 The 1M 142 yard BetMGM Lincoln Trial Handicap features eleven runners of whom only three are actually entered in the Lincoln which is a fortnight away today. The horse that catches my eye is the Clive Cox trained Kingdom Come. The Kingman five year old has won three of his five starts on the all weather and has not been disgraced in two efforts this season when runner up to the progressive Doctor Khan Junior and his latest third at Lingfield can be marked up as he had a poor trip round. Off of the same mark and with Rossa Ryan in the saddle he looks excellent each way value, especially wit the firms paying four places.   KINGDOM COME 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Sandown 3.35 A £50,000 2M 4F novices’ handicap chase that has attracted just eight runners. Paul Nicholls’ top weight Golden Son may well be the one they all have to beat. He bounced back to form following two pulled up efforts in first time cheek pieces at Kempton a fortnight ago when beating Heltenham by half a length. Heltenham has boosted the form since by winning the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury so a 3lb rise may not be enough to stop this ex french six year old who runs in the colours of one of Nicholls’s biggest patrons Johnny de la Hey. Kotmask trained by Gary Moore is chasing a hat trick and looks the danger.   GOLDEN SON 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor  

Shall we do a Cheltenham lucky 15 challenge this year? All those in favour  say aye.
@tonythepaint @LEE-GRAYS @BBBC @MCLARKE @The Equaliser @harry_rag @calva decoy @White Feather @yossa6133 and anyone else