Darran Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh. Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple. Race 1 There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial. Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat. If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch. Race 2 Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well. Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill Race 3 There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere. Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race. Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him. Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat. Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356 yossa6133, Bedlam, MCLARKE and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 Back to Warrnambool for the 2nd meeting of the season for 4 races Race 1 The maiden hurdle has divided and the first division sees G3 winner and 6th placed in the 2021 Melbourne Cup Grand Promenade make his hurdles debut. I watched his last trial and he jumped well apart from making one bad mistake, but it was good to see that he picked up well from it and it didn't stop him. He finished 2nd behind Okataina who was given a bold front running ride. In also won his previous trial where he just caught Southern France who had built up a massive lead but got run down. Okataina is nowhere near Grand Promenade's flat ability, but clearly enjoys hurdles and comes from a top yard. Southern France might ring a bell as he was trained by Aidan O'Brien. He finished 2nd in the 2018 Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, 3rd in that years St Leger, 2nd in the following year's Yorkshire Cup and 3rd in the Irish St Leger. He then went over for the Melbourne Cup and only beat 5 home. He then won the G2 Sandown Classic and it looked like he might have a decent Australian career, but he hasn't won since and has really struggled recently. Jumps looks like a last throw of the dice and it will be interesting to see how he gets on, but I can't back him. Tarn's Prince ran well enough when 2nd here a couple of weeks ago, but I suspect now he's in a proper race that Grand Promenade should be too good for Okataina and the rest. No bet Race 2 This is probably a two horse race unless Elementry steps up from an OK debut a couple of weeks ago. Extra Elusive was trained by Roger Charlton over here and the pick of his efforts would be the Rose Of Lancaster win at Haydock in August 2020. He went downhill from there though and the move to Australia hasn't really worked as that Haydock win is his last win. To be fair he's had some good place efforts and was 2nd in a good version of the Great Western Cup last time. I liked his trial performance last time which he won at Terang and he jumped really well on the whole. Irish Butterfly is the other at the head of the market and he jumped well enough when winning a trial last time. He was so far clear of the others that you couldn't even see all of his jumps. He's decent enough on the flat as well. I'm going to take Extra Elusive to win this because he is the better horse on the flat and I thought he really attacked his hurdles well in the trial and he could well get the better of his market rival. Extra Elusive 1pt @ 6/5 with everyone Race 3 These BM120 hurdles were tricky last season and we see plenty of the same old faces lining up in this. One exception to that is the favourite Pure Deal and he does strike me as the most likely winner. He has only had 3 starts over hurdles all last April and May. At Pakenham he was a close 3rd in a maiden which worked out very well and he duly landed his maiden over this course and distance the following month. He then went into BM120 company at Sandown and was very disappointing. Clearly there was a reason for that because he hasn't run in a proper race since. He's had a few jump outs and trials though and he won both hurdles trials at Cranbourne and Terang looking promising in the process. He looks the one horse in this race who could progress higher up the ranks. 2nd in is Abreed and he's only had 4 starts, but he was 7th in that same Pakenham maiden and he ended up winning his maiden 2 starts later at Sale which isn't as strong form. He was only beaten 0.2L into 3rd in this grade at Pakenham last July and that's probably why he has the same mark as Pure Deal, but given he has about 10L to make up on the run last April I am happy to back the favourite against him. The rest are all solid horses and capable of winning at some point this season. Count Zero might be the biggest danger as his 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle obviously reads very well, but he does have a lot of weight because of it. Rising Renown and That's Incranibull have claims and good old El Diez turns up at pretty much every meeting and usually runs his race, but I am happy to go with the least exposed horse in the race. Pure Deal 1pt @ 13/10 with Bet365 Race 5 Good to see the Steeplechase on the card has had 13 entries because you don't usually have emergencies in them, but it seems plenty want to go chasing this season. I like Budd Fox here who has only had 3 starts over jumps the first 3 of which came back in 2021. He won a maiden hurdle at Pakenham in April and was then 4th in a BM120 at Sandown the following month. The following year he ran at the same Pakenham meeting in the BM125 steeplechase and was beaten 0.2L by Valac. He then went missing for 77 weeks and has had 3 starts on the flat plus various trials and jump outs since. That Valac form is very strong and I watched his trial here a couple of weeks ago and he looked in good shape and loved jumping the fences. Even though he hasn't been seen in a jumps race for a long time, he should be fit and with the other jumps form on other not making a huge amount of appeal I am happy to take him as being the best horse in the race. I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Yulong Place who I put up in the first race of the season. He hadn't run since 2022, but had finished 2nd in the Thackeray and Crisp which were good efforts, plus he was a course and distance winner. He looked very fresh and keen 13 days ago and I thought he ran well until the effort told late on and was allowed to coast home in his own time. He might still need another run, but at huge odds he's worth a small play. Budd Fox 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair Yulong Place 0.5pts e/w @ 22/1 with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 The last two races were called off because the ground was too quick and sadly Grand Promenade was killed in a fall in the first. Bedlam and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted April 6 Author Share Posted April 6 It was meant to be Hamilton tomorrow, but there is an issue with the track so we head to Ballarat instead for 2 hurdles and 2 chases. Race 1 This doesn’t look a strong maiden hurdle and I am going to give Lincoln King another chance. He was fav on hurdles debut at Coleraine last August, but was only 5th. I am prepared to forgive that effort though as he lost a shoe and had minor abrasions on his leg. He was poor in the Adelaide Cup last time, but ran well in a Listed Race at Moonee Valley the time before and he is easily the best horse of these on the flat. Murrumbidgee River was well beaten at Pakenham on hurdles debut last July, but he never travelled and was lame after the race. He was quite short in the market that day and could do better here after a fair prep run on the flat last time. Gunaluva is the other one to mention. He was 2nd in a couple of maiden hurdles last season and won a maiden chase although that was a weak race, but clearly is one of the main contenders here. Lincoln King 1pt @ 11/10 with everyone Race 2 Okataina is odds on after easily winning a maiden hurdle at Warrnambool on hurdles debut. He went from the front and his task was made easier after Grand Promanade sadly departed the race. I can see why he’s at the head of the market as he brings fresh form to this race, but its hard to think he is value and I will back a couple e/w instead. Count Zero likes to front run as well and won a couple of times last season at Terang and Casterton. He was also 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown and that is all form which means he can go well here. The other one I like is ex Irish horse Crosshill. He ended up winning the opening race of the season when the long odds on fav fell and he ended up with an easy task. Even so he has strong hurdles form in Ireland and he looks over priced at double figure odds. Count Zero 0.5pts e/w @ 11/1 with Skybet Crosshill 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with Skybet Race 3 A low grade steeplechase which sees Duke Of Bedford head the market. He struggled a bit after winning a maiden chase last season, but fair to say this is a class drop from those efforts. I’m going to look to the chasing newcomers instead and I think Fort Charles is worth a small bet. He showed ability over hurdles in 2022, but only ran in one flat race in 2023 so clearly something went amiss. He’s had plenty of trials and 2 flat runs to build his fitness up and he just beat Tom Foolery in a chase trial last month. I thought he jumped better than the 2nd in that trial and it is why I favour him to win. Fort Charles 1pt @ 9/2 with most bookies Race 4 Instigator just got the better of Might Oasis in the first chase of the season at Warrnambool yet for some reason is much shorter in the betting here. I thought he was slightly fortunate not to lose the race in the stewards room as well so I am happy to give Mighty Oasis another chance and he might well reverse the form. The one slight concern is he just seem to go well at Warrnambool, but that is factored into the price for me. Vanguard is solid, but I’d imagine he is working towards the Grand Annual next month. The Rattlin’ Bog can go well on chasing debut, whilst I’m a little surprised to see Mr Coyne be so strong in the betting as I don’t really fancy him. Might Oasis 1pt @ 15/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 16 hours ago, Darran said: It was meant to be Hamilton tomorrow, but there is an issue with the track so we head to Ballarat instead for 2 hurdles and 2 chases. Race 1 This doesn’t look a strong maiden hurdle and I am going to give Lincoln King another chance. He was fav on hurdles debut at Coleraine last August, but was only 5th. I am prepared to forgive that effort though as he lost a shoe and had minor abrasions on his leg. He was poor in the Adelaide Cup last time, but ran well in a Listed Race at Moonee Valley the time before and he is easily the best horse of these on the flat. Murrumbidgee River was well beaten at Pakenham on hurdles debut last July, but he never travelled and was lame after the race. He was quite short in the market that day and could do better here after a fair prep run on the flat last time. Gunaluva is the other one to mention. He was 2nd in a couple of maiden hurdles last season and won a maiden chase although that was a weak race, but clearly is one of the main contenders here. Lincoln King 1pt @ 11/10 with everyone Race 2 Okataina is odds on after easily winning a maiden hurdle at Warrnambool on hurdles debut. He went from the front and his task was made easier after Grand Promanade sadly departed the race. I can see why he’s at the head of the market as he brings fresh form to this race, but its hard to think he is value and I will back a couple e/w instead. Count Zero likes to front run as well and won a couple of times last season at Terang and Casterton. He was also 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown and that is all form which means he can go well here. The other one I like is ex Irish horse Crosshill. He ended up winning the opening race of the season when the long odds on fav fell and he ended up with an easy task. Even so he has strong hurdles form in Ireland and he looks over priced at double figure odds. Count Zero 0.5pts e/w @ 11/1 with Skybet Crosshill 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with Skybet Race 3 A low grade steeplechase which sees Duke Of Bedford head the market. He struggled a bit after winning a maiden chase last season, but fair to say this is a class drop from those efforts. I’m going to look to the chasing newcomers instead and I think Fort Charles is worth a small bet. He showed ability over hurdles in 2022, but only ran in one flat race in 2023 so clearly something went amiss. He’s had plenty of trials and 2 flat runs to build his fitness up and he just beat Tom Foolery in a chase trial last month. I thought he jumped better than the 2nd in that trial and it is why I favour him to win. Fort Charles 1pt @ 9/2 with most bookies Race 4 Instigator just got the better of Might Oasis in the first chase of the season at Warrnambool yet for some reason is much shorter in the betting here. I thought he was slightly fortunate not to lose the race in the stewards room as well so I am happy to give Mighty Oasis another chance and he might well reverse the form. The one slight concern is he just seem to go well at Warrnambool, but that is factored into the price for me. Vanguard is solid, but I’d imagine he is working towards the Grand Annual next month. The Rattlin’ Bog can go well on chasing debut, whilst I’m a little surprised to see Mr Coyne be so strong in the betting as I don’t really fancy him. Might Oasis 1pt @ 15/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair Nice couple of winners cheers, well played again 👏🏼 Darran and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted April 12 Author Share Posted April 12 Off to Pakenham we go on Sunday for a whole jumps card and personally it has the extra bonus as I will actually be at Pakenham to watch the action and it should be a good card. Hopefully it can build on last weeks profits as well. To start with it will just be my notes and then I will add bets when the races are priced up. Race 1 Only 4 runners in this 1 jumps win hurdle. Custom Of The Sea has come from Joseph O’Brians and he made two starts over hurdles for him. He won impressively on debut in a maiden at Killarney last May and was then 2nd at Ballinrobe a few weeks later. Media Naranja was the horse who beat him that day and he is rated 122 at the moment and ran at The Festival. Since going to Oz he has had 3 flat runs and won the last of them at Ballarat so he is in good form. He has trialled a couple of times since to keep him ticking over and he ought to be capable of decent things over hurdles in Australia. Calvi beat Elementry at Warrnambool by 5.2L although the latter was pretty green that day and clearly benefitted from the experience when winning back there a couple of weeks later. It wouldn’t surprise me if he reverses the form as he could get an easy lead. Pure Deal was 3rd in a maiden at this meeting last year in a hot race and then he won his maiden at Warrnambool. He was very disappointing at Sandown on his next start and he hasn’t been seen since in a actual race. He has had plenty of trials and has won the 2 hurdles won he has had. Race 2 Aqulleon showed a bit of ability over hurdles in 2 starts last season when a 8.2L 3rd at Warrnambool in May and a 4.7L 4th at Sale in June. Well beaten in 3 flat starts so far this year. Gambu was 3rd at Warrnambool 2.7L behind Calvi and was then well beaten at the time when falling a couple of weeks later. 5.1L 4th last week wasn’t bad though. Huntley Castle was meant to run last week and I didn’t really fancy him that day and has only trialed OK over hurdles. Leaderboard won the Wellington Cup last January in New Zealand although well beaten in it last time this year. 5th only start over hurdles in NZ, but I was impressed with his hurdles trial last week. The Awesome Son did manage a 2nd at Coleraine last season, but his 2 starts either side of that weren’t great. Credit Crunch has been last in last 3 starts on the flat, but there were at Metro tracks. Didn’t overly impress in his jumping in his trial last week. Race 3 Affluential is a maiden on the flat, but could be a better hurdler based on his trial win last week. Dubai Moon won 4 on the bounce in about 2 weeks in January and February on the level. He was poor on his next 3 starts, but then looked good in a hurdle trial. Ran at Kyneton on Thursday and was a close 5th. Jack Knows Best won as a long odds on fav on the flat in February. He was then a good 3rd in a stronger race last month. Solid hurdles trial prior to that 3rd. This isn’t a strong race, but not sure Oz Legend or Sir Peter did enough on their hurdles debut to carry my money here. Race 4 The feature hurdle is the MJ Bourke and last year’s winner Blandford Lad tries to win it again. That was a good effort to just beat Aaunter Boy, but it was downhill from that last season. He has been last in his 2 flat runs this year although he did easily win a hurdle trial last week. I would add though that he looked like the only one who tried to win the race. Fabalot was 4th in the opening contest on this card last year and built on that to finish 2nd in the Galleywood finishing in front of Blandford Lad. After that he won at Casterton before running no sort of race the next time. He then bolted up in the JJ Houlahan on the final day of the season. Has had a couple of prep runs on the flat for this. Out And Dreaming was 2nd in this in 2022 but last hurdles run was in June that year. Had 1 flat run last year and 1 in February. Won a hurdle trial a month ago, but suspect he will need this. El Diez was a decent 2nd last week and runs pretty much every week, but suspect this will be a bit above him although he does have the fitness edge. The Might Spar won last time on the flat in New Zealand. He was also 7th in the New Zealand Cup in November. Won a maiden hurdle last year and then 3rd on his other hurdles start. Promising enough trial last week. Race 5 Not Usual Dream was 4th in this last season and then 4th in the Australian Steeple. He then won at Sale the following month. He was 2nd on the flat at Ballarat last week. Blood And Sand didn’t run that badly last week at Ballarat in the feature chase and a chance if building on that. Budd Fox was 2nd in this 2 years ago beaten just 0.2L and then wasn’t seen for 75 weeks. Has been poor on the flat since. We then have 5 horses who ran in the 0-114 Steeple last week behind Duke Of Bedford. The best of them was Tom Foolery who was a good 2nd to the impressive winner. Raise Your Sights was 7.25L back in 3rd, Fort Charles 9.5L back in 4th and Dr Dependable and She Shed So 5th and 7th. Given Tom Foolery made a mistake at the last and that race was slightly quicker than the feature I take him to confirm that form from last week. Race 6 I was hoping Stern Idol was going to run in the feature Steeple of the afternoon because I wanted to see the best jumps horse in Oz in the flesh. He has been so impressive on most of his jumps starts since coming over from France and he bolted up in this race last year. He then failed to finish in the Grand Annual, but he just doesn’t stay that far. He did manage to win the Crisp at Sandown over 4200m, but then disappointed over even further in the Grand National. He looks just in as good form ahead of this jumps prep as he has trialled well and also had a really good 2nd on the flat at Sandown last month. Hard to see how he gets beat and he should bolt up really. Rockstar Ronnie did win the Grand Annual and no doubt the ex Dan Skelton horse will be going back there next month. He was well behind Stern Idol in the Crisp on his last jumps start. Brungle Bertie was the one who took advantage of Stern Idols poor run in the Grand National and I would imagine he’s another with the Grand Annual as his target. He was a well beaten 4th behind Stern Idol in the Crisp. Tolemac won the Australian Stepple last season, but was stuffed in the Crisp and a well beaten 4th in the Grand National. MCLARKE and Bedlam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 (edited) 5 hours ago, Darran said: Off to Pakenham we go on Sunday for a whole jumps card and personally it has the extra bonus as I will actually be at Pakenham to watch the action and it should be a good card. Hopefully it can build on last weeks profits as well. To start with it will just be my notes and then I will add bets when the races are priced up. Race 1 Only 4 runners in this 1 jumps win hurdle. Custom Of The Sea has come from Joseph O’Brians and he made two starts over hurdles for him. He won impressively on debut in a maiden at Killarney last May and was then 2nd at Ballinrobe a few weeks later. Media Naranja was the horse who beat him that day and he is rated 122 at the moment and ran at The Festival. Since going to Oz he has had 3 flat runs and won the last of them at Ballarat so he is in good form. He has trialled a couple of times since to keep him ticking over and he ought to be capable of decent things over hurdles in Australia. Calvi beat Elementry at Warrnambool by 5.2L although the latter was pretty green that day and clearly benefitted from the experience when winning back there a couple of weeks later. It wouldn’t surprise me if he reverses the form as he could get an easy lead. Pure Deal was 3rd in a maiden at this meeting last year in a hot race and then he won his maiden at Warrnambool. He was very disappointing at Sandown on his next start and he hasn’t been seen since in a actual race. He has had plenty of trials and has won the 2 hurdles won he has had. Race 2 Aqulleon showed a bit of ability over hurdles in 2 starts last season when a 8.2L 3rd at Warrnambool in May and a 4.7L 4th at Sale in June. Well beaten in 3 flat starts so far this year. Gambu was 3rd at Warrnambool 2.7L behind Calvi and was then well beaten at the time when falling a couple of weeks later. 5.1L 4th last week wasn’t bad though. Huntley Castle was meant to run last week and I didn’t really fancy him that day and has only trialed OK over hurdles. Leaderboard won the Wellington Cup last January in New Zealand although well beaten in it last time this year. 5th only start over hurdles in NZ, but I was impressed with his hurdles trial last week. The Awesome Son did manage a 2nd at Coleraine last season, but his 2 starts either side of that weren’t great. Credit Crunch has been last in last 3 starts on the flat, but there were at Metro tracks. Didn’t overly impress in his jumping in his trial last week. Race 3 Affluential is a maiden on the flat, but could be a better hurdler based on his trial win last week. Dubai Moon won 4 on the bounce in about 2 weeks in January and February on the level. He was poor on his next 3 starts, but then looked good in a hurdle trial. Ran at Kyneton on Thursday and was a close 5th. Jack Knows Best won as a long odds on fav on the flat in February. He was then a good 3rd in a stronger race last month. Solid hurdles trial prior to that 3rd. This isn’t a strong race, but not sure Oz Legend or Sir Peter did enough on their hurdles debut to carry my money here. Race 4 The feature hurdle is the MJ Bourke and last year’s winner Blandford Lad tries to win it again. That was a good effort to just beat Aaunter Boy, but it was downhill from that last season. He has been last in his 2 flat runs this year although he did easily win a hurdle trial last week. I would add though that he looked like the only one who tried to win the race. Fabalot was 4th in the opening contest on this card last year and built on that to finish 2nd in the Galleywood finishing in front of Blandford Lad. After that he won at Casterton before running no sort of race the next time. He then bolted up in the JJ Houlahan on the final day of the season. Has had a couple of prep runs on the flat for this. Out And Dreaming was 2nd in this in 2022 but last hurdles run was in June that year. Had 1 flat run last year and 1 in February. Won a hurdle trial a month ago, but suspect he will need this. El Diez was a decent 2nd last week and runs pretty much every week, but suspect this will be a bit above him although he does have the fitness edge. The Might Spar won last time on the flat in New Zealand. He was also 7th in the New Zealand Cup in November. Won a maiden hurdle last year and then 3rd on his other hurdles start. Promising enough trial last week. Race 5 Not Usual Dream was 4th in this last season and then 4th in the Australian Steeple. He then won at Sale the following month. He was 2nd on the flat at Ballarat last week. Blood And Sand didn’t run that badly last week at Ballarat in the feature chase and a chance if building on that. Budd Fox was 2nd in this 2 years ago beaten just 0.2L and then wasn’t seen for 75 weeks. Has been poor on the flat since. We then have 5 horses who ran in the 0-114 Steeple last week behind Duke Of Bedford. The best of them was Tom Foolery who was a good 2nd to the impressive winner. Raise Your Sights was 7.25L back in 3rd, Fort Charles 9.5L back in 4th and Dr Dependable and She Shed So 5th and 7th. Given Tom Foolery made a mistake at the last and that race was slightly quicker than the feature I take him to confirm that form from last week. Race 6 I was hoping Stern Idol was going to run in the feature Steeple of the afternoon because I wanted to see the best jumps horse in Oz in the flesh. He has been so impressive on most of his jumps starts since coming over from France and he bolted up in this race last year. He then failed to finish in the Grand Annual, but he just doesn’t stay that far. He did manage to win the Crisp at Sandown over 4200m, but then disappointed over even further in the Grand National. He looks just in as good form ahead of this jumps prep as he has trialled well and also had a really good 2nd on the flat at Sandown last month. Hard to see how he gets beat and he should bolt up really. Rockstar Ronnie did win the Grand Annual and no doubt the ex Dan Skelton horse will be going back there next month. He was well behind Stern Idol in the Crisp on his last jumps start. Brungle Bertie was the one who took advantage of Stern Idols poor run in the Grand National and I would imagine he’s another with the Grand Annual as his target. He was a well beaten 4th behind Stern Idol in the Crisp. Tolemac won the Australian Stepple last season, but was stuffed in the Crisp and a well beaten 4th in the Grand National. Got a few different bookies now but can't find these races anywhere mate 😭. Bet365 have them but I lost that a long time ago. Shame as I was keen to follow. I did manage to back all your others at Randwick though so 👌🏼 Edit - ignore me, didn't realise it was Sunday morning, not tomorrow morning. I assume other sites will hopefully then have the races 🤞🏼 Edited April 12 by Hotspur88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted April 13 Author Share Posted April 13 Annoyingly Oddschecker doesn’t have the meeting on their site so I will just use Bet365 prices, but others will be betting in it. Race 1 Pure Deal has been backed for this in what is a tight betting market, but I will side with Custom Of The Sea as he looked like a promising sort in Ireland and with him winning on the flat last time he is clearly in good heart in Oz as well. Good race despite the 4 runners. Custom Of The Sea 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365 Race 2 Credit Crunch has come out and he was put in as 2nd fav which surprised me and it means the price on Leaderboard has come in, but he has the potential to be useful and looks the best of these. Race 3 Betting has it between Jack Knows Best and Dubai Moon which is right for me and I would make the latter the fav so as he isn’t he is the bet. Dubai Moon 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 Race 4 I had sort of hoped that it would be possible to back both The Mighty Spar and Fabalot, but that isn’t the case and or me Fabalot is the one who is value. He had some very strong form over hurdles last season and brings the best hurdles form into the race. I’d have him as the market leader myself. Fabalot 1pt @ 13/5 Race 5 No surprise that Tom Foolery is the fav here given most of the horses in the race are the ones he beat last week. Technically this is a step up in grade, but I think the winner of the 0-114 race was much improved and given he pushed him close it was a strong piece of form. I’m surprised Budd Fox is 2nd in as I suspect he will need this. Not Usual Dream would be the bigger danger for me and Blood And Sand might outrun his odds. Tom Foolery 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365 Race 6 Stern Idol should win this. A good run on the flat means he is in good form and this is his ideal trip and conditions. Rockstar Ronnie ought to be 2nd best, but no doubt this is being used as a prep for the Grand Annual. I am happy to back Leaderboard and Stern Idol in a double. Leaderboard and Stern Idol 1pt double @ 1.79/1 with Bet365 Bedlam and Hotspur88 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 14 hours ago, Darran said: Annoyingly Oddschecker doesn’t have the meeting on their site so I will just use Bet365 prices, but others will be betting in it. Race 1 Pure Deal has been backed for this in what is a tight betting market, but I will side with Custom Of The Sea as he looked like a promising sort in Ireland and with him winning on the flat last time he is clearly in good heart in Oz as well. Good race despite the 4 runners. Custom Of The Sea 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365 Race 2 Credit Crunch has come out and he was put in as 2nd fav which surprised me and it means the price on Leaderboard has come in, but he has the potential to be useful and looks the best of these. Race 3 Betting has it between Jack Knows Best and Dubai Moon which is right for me and I would make the latter the fav so as he isn’t he is the bet. Dubai Moon 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 Race 4 I had sort of hoped that it would be possible to back both The Mighty Spar and Fabalot, but that isn’t the case and or me Fabalot is the one who is value. He had some very strong form over hurdles last season and brings the best hurdles form into the race. I’d have him as the market leader myself. Fabalot 1pt @ 13/5 Race 5 No surprise that Tom Foolery is the fav here given most of the horses in the race are the ones he beat last week. Technically this is a step up in grade, but I think the winner of the 0-114 race was much improved and given he pushed him close it was a strong piece of form. I’m surprised Budd Fox is 2nd in as I suspect he will need this. Not Usual Dream would be the bigger danger for me and Blood And Sand might outrun his odds. Tom Foolery 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365 Race 6 Stern Idol should win this. A good run on the flat means he is in good form and this is his ideal trip and conditions. Rockstar Ronnie ought to be 2nd best, but no doubt this is being used as a prep for the Grand Annual. I am happy to back Leaderboard and Stern Idol in a double. Leaderboard and Stern Idol 1pt double @ 1.79/1 with Bet365 I followed you in on all of these 🤯 🤣...so you can blame me for the 6pts lost 🤦🏼♂️. My last hope is I've put Stern Idol in a treble with a couple of football teams as an extra bet after Leaderboard lost earlier so that would get me back 4pts if it wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted April 14 Author Share Posted April 14 2 hours ago, Hotspur88 said: I followed you in on all of these 🤯 🤣...so you can blame me for the 6pts lost 🤦🏼♂️. My last hope is I've put Stern Idol in a treble with a couple of football teams as an extra bet after Leaderboard lost earlier so that would get me back 4pts if it wins. Finally get chance to watch a meeting in the flesh and I have a nightmare. I was stood by the last for Dubai Moon’s race and thought the race was won. Still can’t believe he got beat. Budd Fox just jumped better than Tom Foolery and that’s made the difference. Was a tough card to make money from though although my 7yo son managed to! Will be back for the big Warrnambool Carnival next month and hopefully the 2 football teams win for you. Bronxie and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted April 29 Author Share Posted April 29 The May Warrnambool Carnival would mean as anywhere near as much as it does if it didn't have jumps racing and we have the biggest jumps race of the season in the Grand Annual on Thursday. On Day 1 though we have 4 jumps races with the maiden hurdle having been divided 3 times and then the other big chase of the week, the Brierly, also on the card. Oddschecker don't have the meeting on their pages as the moment so I have just used Bet365 prices Race 1 Alakahan started life in Ireland having a couple of starts for Mick Halford before going to Oz where he has had a solid career on the flat and the 3rd at Caulfield was a good effort in February. He's not been so good in his last 2 starts though. I watched his hurdle trial at the start of the month and it was good apart from one jump which he dived at, but apart from that I was impressed. I was stood at the last flight for Dubai Moon's race at Pakenham and I was counting my winnings as he looked home and hosed. However he stopped on the run-in and Affluential got past him just before the post. I guessed he had just got tired, but the jockey reported to the stewards that he thought the horse had sighted the hurdle after the winning post and as a result failed to fully finish the race off. Clearly he ought to know more than me and the horse certainly didn't look tired jumping the last. He's run again on the flat since, but he's clearly a horse who takes his racing well. Sir Peter and Jack Knows Best both ran in the Pakenham race, but I can't really see a reason for them reversing form. Extra Elusive was trained by Roger Charlton over here and the pick of his efforts would be the Rose Of Lancaster win at Haydock in August 2020. He then won at Windsor, but it has been downhill from there and the move to Australia hasn't really worked as that Windsor win is his last win. To be fair he's had some good place efforts and was 2nd in a good version of the Great Western Cup last time in January and was 3rd in the Kerang Cup a month ago. I liked his hurdle trial performance prior to that which he won at Terang and he jumped really well on the whole. Chances are it is between those 3 as the betting suggests and I am going to give Dubai Moon another chance as he looked like he was going to be an impressive winner jumping the last and I will trust the jockey in what he told the stewards to be the case. Dubai Moon 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 Race 2 Apache Thunder was 2nd on the flat last time in a BM58, but he put in a few bad jumps in his trial here a couple of weeks ago. Bazini showed a decent level of ability on the flat although he didn't run well in his last 3 races after finishing 2nd in the Terang Cup a year ago. This does look like it has been his target though as his first two hurdles trials he was quietly ridden, but it was the total opposite here last time where he was a very impressive winner. Davelliom improved on his 5th on hurdles debut over course and distance last month when 3rd at Ballarat last time behind Lincoln King. He ticked over with a run on the flat last week. Southern France might ring a bell as he was trained by Aidan O'Brien. He finished 2nd in the 2018 Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, 3rd in that years St Leger, 2nd in the following year's Yorkshire Cup and 3rd in the Irish St Leger. He then went over for the Melbourne Cup and only beat 5 home. He then won the G2 Sandown Classic and it looked like he might have a decent Australian career, but he hasn't won since and has really struggled recently. Jumps looks like a last throw of the dice and he has had 4 trials over hurdles. He did win the last of them here a couple of weeks ago and was quite impressive in doing so. The Awesome Son was a huge gamble at Pakenham which baffled me and he was a well beaten 5th. Wilewink won his trial here a couple of weeks ago by 20L and clocked a time around 20s quicker than Apache Thunder and Southern France did when they trialed over the same distance. He was the only one who tried to win though and I didn't like his jumping. He did win a BM64 at Stawell on Easter Sunday and he doesn't usually make the running. That was also over 2700m so he should stay the 3200m trip. They look the ones to focus on and I like Bazini to win. Given his trainer he will have been primed for this and I really liked his trial. The concern about Wilewink for me is his jumping which is mainly why I prefer Bazini. Bazini 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365 Race 3 Freddy The Eagle was 33L behind Irish Butterfly in a trail here back in March, but since he has finished 2nd and then won on the flat over 1600m and 2100m both in 0-58 grade which is as low as you can get. He was put into the trial much more here a couple of weeks ago when finishing a close 2nd although his jumping was just OK and when upsides the winner at the last he just missed it. Irish Butterfly ran really well in his hurdle debut when a length 2nd to Elementry here in March. Given Elementry went onto win at Pakenham the form was franked. The ground was pretty quick that day and his jockey did get off and say that a softer track would suit and he is going to get that here. He's had another hurdle trial since to keep him ticking over. Leaderboard looks like being the only other possible winner. He was a bet for me at Pakenham and he drifted like a barge on his first Australian start. As they turned for home he just seemed to get held up behind horses and that is when the winner made his move and he just couldn't get going quickly enough to get to the impressive winner. He pulled clear of the rest and Gambu and Aquileon were the next two home. Given his flat form in New Zealand I think he's capable of better than that and I think he can improve off the back of that Pakenham run. I think he will enjoy the softer conditions here as well and whilst I'm think Irish Butterfly deserves to be favourite, Leaderboard looks the value to me because I think he can do better than the Pakenham effort. Leaderboard 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 Race 6 The Brierly is the feature race on Day 1 and it is hard to see past Stern Idol winning it. He went pretty hard as he usually does at Pakenham and whilst the 2nd got within 2.5L he was always going to win. That effort should put him spot on for this and he's the best chaser in Australia. The one slight concern I guess is that the only time he has run here he failed to finish in the Grand Annual last year, but he just doesn't stay that far. He has actually been declared to run in the race again on Thursday which surprises me and I am even bigger surprised that he is the Even money fav for Thursday. This race looks ideal for him and it will be disappointing if he does get beat. Sadly though Bell Ex One has been scratched just before I posted this and he's now too short to back. Brittanicus won this race last year and then ran poorly at Sandown before missing the rest of the season. He doesn't like the ground heavy so the fact they are having to water to make the ground soft enough should make things ideal for him. He's had plenty of trials and had a perfectly fine flat run at Stawell on Easter Sunday. He has solid place claims. Mighty Oasis and Instigator are 1 win apiece against each other this season and I thought Mighty Oasis was unlucky not to get the race in the stewards room over course and distance. He does run well here, but I wonder if he might go better in the Grand Annual on Thursday as he stays well. So impossible to see past Stern Idol for me and I think Brittanicus could be the one to follow him so will play the forcast. Stern Idol to beat Brittanicus 1pt f/c Bedlam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted April 30 Author Share Posted April 30 Pretty pleased with the way Day 1 went with 2 winners and Leaderboard did end up returning a massive 15/2. Always nice to get an odds on favourite beaten. If you haven't watched the big race then I highly recommend watching it because it was a hell of a horse race and well worth watching. Tomorrow we have a handicap chase and the feature hurdle race of the week. Again I have just used Bet365 prices so bigger might be available elsewhere. Race 4 I have had Duke Of Bedford down as the winner of the BM120 Steeplechase ever since connections said this race would be the target after he won the 0-114 Chase at Ballarat. I thought he looked an improved horse that day and that is no surprise given he is just 5. He looks like he could have the potential to go from this grade to the open steeplechases later in the season and to me he looks a very strong bet. I fancied Tom Foolery at Pakenham on the back of his 2nd to Duke Of Bedford at Ballarat and he just failed to run down Budd Fox on the run-in, but I thought he was outjumped by Budd Fox and I don't really see how he reverses the form with Duke Of Bedford, especially as the weight difference is 3kg again. Duke Of Bedford has also beaten the 2nd favourite over fences as he beat him in a maiden chase at Hamilton 11 months ago. The margin was 5.5L that day and they were carrying the same weight whereas Gunaluva gets 1.5kg here. Gunaluva won over this course and distance on his following start to back up that form. This prep he has had a flat start and then finished a 0.1L 2nd to Lincoln King at Ballarat. He would be the one I am most worried about, but I think Duke Of Bedford will have his measure again. Duke If Bedford 3pts @ 6/4 with Bet365 Race 6 The feature hurdle race of the meeting is the Galleywood and I think the MJ Bourke at Pakenham is the race to focus on here. All 5 runners from that race line-up here and unusually the winner, El Diez is the biggest price of them. El Diez was also the biggest price at Pakenham, but after the race it dawned on me that he was the only horse who had already been seen over hurdles and I think that fitness won the day. He's an honourable horse, but he shouldn't be winning this. So the other 4 should all come on for the run and the one I like most is Fabalot. He tried to make the running at Pakenham as he usually does and when he was caught I thought he was going to drop away, but he didn't and actually looked like he might win again on the run-in before he just flattened out with his effort. To me it looked like a run that would leave him spot on for this and it was a race he finished 2nd in last year and given his trainer it will have been the target race again. Annoyingly the original favourite Bedford has come out because I really wanted to take him on. The Mighty Spar was 1 place behind Fabalot at Pakenham and ought to improve on his first run in Australia from New Zealand in the same way his stablemate Leaderboard improved on Tuesday. Pure Deal ran in the opening race at Pakenham and ran well given he hadn't run since last May. He's only got a maiden win to his name, but he should find improvement from that run last time. I've always thought of Rising Renown as below this level, but he did beat El Diez at Ballarat so he has to have some sort of chance based on that. Given who trains Chains Of Honour he has to be respected as well, but he hasn't been seen over hurdles since August 2022 and I notice he has had a steeplechase trial so I wonder if this is being used as a run before going over fences. So all in all I am hoping that Fabalot can go one place better than last year. Fabalot 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 1 Author Share Posted May 1 Poor Day 2 and so annoying to see Tom Foolery win. He was really well backed and ended up going off favourite so clearly some people expected an improved showing. I'm not sure Duke Of Bedford was loving Warrnambool and he might prefer going elsewhere. Only the final day where the big race of the week, the Grand Annual takes place. Race 1 The Champion Novice Hurdle looks the toughest race of the week to find the winner of. Affluential is the market leader after he got up to beat Dubai Moon at Pakenham and last week he won a maiden on the flat at Cranbourne. Dubai Moon ran well enough on Tuesday to give the form a solid enough look and they did pull clear of the others. As I wrote the other day though Dubai Moon's jockey thought he got distracted by the hurdle after the line so was he possibly a bit fortunate to win so whilst I respect his chance and he could win I am going to take him on. Jekyll'n'hyde won a maiden at Coleraine last August and then ran a solid enough 4th at Ballarat in handicap company behind El Diez. He has had 3 flat runs over the last couple of months and he won a hurdle trial here 3 weeks ago. He has claims. Calvi could run a decent race as he took the maiden on the first jumps card of the season over course and distance. Elementry was 4th that day and did reverse the form at Pakenham last month, but I think the fact he could dictate the pace in a small field played into his hands and Calvi's run wasn't bad. He ran OK on the flat at Moe last week. Lincoln King won his maiden at Ballarat last time, but I'm not sure that is the strongest form in the race, but he does have strong flat form so I still respect his claims. I was really impressed with Huntly Castle at Pakenham as he quickened up well to storm clear. Given Leaderboard who was 2nd that day won on Tuesday that form has a strong look to it and his jockey has impressed in Australia so far and landed the Galleywood yesterday. I put up Custom Of The Sea at Pakenham and on the face of it he ran poorly, but he was lame after the race and the jockey reported that he made an abnormal respiratory noise turning for home. I think he looks a potential big improver from that effort and he had shown good promise in Ireland over hurdles so we know the ability to win a race like this is there. I'm going to take two against the field here and with Huntly Castle's form boosted on Tuesday I am going to back him and I am expecting a much improved run from Custom Of The Sea so he is the other one I will back. Huntly Castle 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 Custom Of The Sea 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365 Race 7 Really looking forward to the Grand Annual which is the longest jumps race in Australia at 5500m and it is worth around £130k to the winner. Stern Idol was entered in this, but in a very clever move by his trainer I think he was only put into the race to keep the weights down for last years Rockstar Ronnie. He would have had to carry more than 67.5kg and it would have led to more horses being in the handicap proper, but instead he is giving less weight than he should do to some of the runners. I find it odd that in Australia they don't see to focus on the handicap and just look at the weight's the horses have to carry which is the opposite to what we do over here. Rockstar Ronnie was a good winner last year and the ex Dan Skelton trained horse certainly won way more money than he would have done in the UK. After that he was beaten by Mighty Oasis in the Thackeray and then ran a stinker in the Crips at Sandown, but he was lame after the race and he jumped terribly so I suspect the lameness was the reason. I thought he ran the perfect trial at Pakenham when 3rd behind Stern Idol and after the race I went over to where connections were stood and they were delighted with the effort which should have put him spot on for this. Bell Ex One was certainly the better horse of the 2 in Ireland/UK and he was 3rd at the Cheltenham Festival on his last start here. His first start in Oz went perfectly as he beat Stern Idol over hurdles and I thought he was going to win lots of races last season. That didn't really happen though and whilst he did well to win the Lafferty Hurdle I didn't think he was really at his best. To be fair his chase debut was a good effort in the Grand National at Ballarat when 2nd to Brungle Bertie, He's had lots of trials this year and a couple of flat runs and he was 2nd last time at Kyneton. I never really had him down as a horse who needs this far and I do think he has to step up on what he did last year. Brungle Bertie ended the season very well as his run in the Crisp was good given he got badly hampered and then as mentioned above he won the Grand National. I thought he was given a bit of a daft ride at Pakenham as he tried to serve it up to Stern Idol which is never to work as he burnt himself out and ended up finishing 5th. He should come on for that run though and given he stayed 4500m well he ought to stay this trip. Vanguard was 4th in this race last year and no doubt will have had this race as his plan again this year. He ran well in his prep at Ballarat when 3rd to Mighty Oasis and Instigator. With another year on his back he could easily improve on his 4th place. Crosshill had good form in Ireland before going to Oz and he was certainly a better horse than Rockstar Ronnie, but things haven't quite worked out for him. He was 3rd in this last year and did win a maiden on the flat, but he was only 6th in the Crisp and then failed to finish in the Grand National. He won 1st up this season although it ended up being a very weak race with the other two chances both departing early on. I thought he was very poor at Ballarat though in the hurdle there when he failed to finish. He did win a steeple trial last time. He was put in at silly odds although that was with Stern Idol still in the race and I'm not surprised he's been backed in, but I think the value has gone now. Instigator ran a huge race on Tuesday when putting it up to Stern Idol late on and it is not unusual for horses to run in both races so has another chance here. The only other one with a chance is Budd Fox who jumped really well to win at Pakenham and beat Tom Foolery who obviously franked the form today. He is the main horse who is running from out of the handicap, but that was his first jumps race since 2022 so he should improve for it. He was also 2nd in the longest flat race in Oz which is here over 4600m so the trip shouldn't be an issue either. I do think Rockstar Ronnie is the one to beat again as he ran a fantastic trial for this at Pakenham and we know this test suits him perfectly. Vanguard won the Brieley 2 years ago and then slipped in this when fav and the 4th last year was obviously solid. There was lots to like about his prep run as well so he will be the other horse I cover in what should be a cracking race, Rockstar Ronnie 2pts @ 3/1 with Bet365 Vanguard 1pt @ 7/1 with Bet365 MCLARKE, yossa6133 and Bedlam 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted Friday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:43 PM (edited) @Darran thoughts on Tavi Time Newcastle Race 8 early hours of tomorrow UK time? I'm going to back as it looks a very solid bet to me. I've backed 3pt win @ 11/8 Edited Friday at 09:44 PM by Hotspur88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago On 5/10/2024 at 10:43 PM, Hotspur88 said: @Darran thoughts on Tavi Time Newcastle Race 8 early hours of tomorrow UK time? I'm going to back as it looks a very solid bet to me. I've backed 3pt win @ 11/8 Sorry didn't see this before now. Hotspur88 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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