yossa6133
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Posts posted by yossa6133
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13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
Coincidence has it that i just rated this 2yo race that @yossa6133 has highlighted, and there is a good debate here based on what he and the established "tipsters" say.
with no disrespect intended towards anyone not least yossa. many years ago i did some research and it was based around so called "it was backed and ran well at Ascot" "therefore it should be a shoe in in this" my research suggest that this is "wrong think" yes it may well win but is it a bet?
I actually got the forecast in the Ascot race (proofed by my piece on this site) So is it a bet? well to be honest the answer is no unless it has performed better than the other horses in the race and the figures suggest it hasn't. The Ascot race was very fast btw but Kaboo finished 6th, if you look at the horses in front of it eg bond chairman 4th (66/1) btn 2.5l ran on the near side as did Kaboo btn 3.5l in 6th. so its pure speculation that Kaboo did anything other than run "a race" so would you apply the same logic to Bond Chairman as you do with Kaboo? lets be honest here the "tipsters" are going off the fact that a good few quid came for Kaboo therefore it must be "something" so lets see what happens tomorrow it may prove quite interesting. I am not saying Kaboo can't win but its my honest opinion that it is a lousy bet at around 6/4 - 2/1 (don't let me put you off, this is only my opinion based on the available evidence and i hope it makes for interesting reading and or debate)
1 Navello 125 6/1
2 Fearby 122 10/1
3 instinctive move 117+ 5/2
others at 117,115, 114, and Kaboo at 112+
Sure, but money coming for it on debut in a hot race is significant...they know they have a fast horse! And it backed that up with a solid run. Price is skinnier than I wanted but I decided to back it anyway rather than let it win, think 2/1 was about my cut off though.
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Backed Kaboo in the 2:20 Sandown, price a bit skinnier than I was hoping for at 2/1! But ran a big race on debut when well backed at Royal Ascot and looked a ready made winner. No idea if the price will come in or go out but I've taken some tonight and may go in again if it drifts a bit.
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4 hours ago, yossa6133 said:
Expecting more from Longhouse Sale today in the 4:40 at Uttox after he's dropped 10lbs over his last few runs. Superb jumper has already won at this course a couple of times, once over two and a half miles which I think stretches his stamina. This doesn't look the strongest race for the money and hopefully he'll be able to blast them off. Currently 10/3, was 5/1 last night.
Under pressure from 3 out, might just have held on with a smoother jump at the last but disappointing really.
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Expecting more from Longhouse Sale today in the 4:40 at Uttox after he's dropped 10lbs over his last few runs. Superb jumper has already won at this course a couple of times, once over two and a half miles which I think stretches his stamina. This doesn't look the strongest race for the money and hopefully he'll be able to blast them off. Currently 10/3, was 5/1 last night.
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Denmark have looked pretty good to me, decent in first half against Finland and Belgium and battered Russia. They just look better than Wales to me. Taken them at evens on SBK. Will probably have a bit on Italy as well.
- waynecoyne and harry_rag
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Quite a move on Kaboo in the 5:35 Ascot (50/1 into 6/1), unraced so not much to go on! But I've followed the money with a small bet at 6/1.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNcrlCKXPqs&t=25s
They had one of these at Wicksteed Park, used to look forward to playing it every year! think it was 10p to play and I won £2 on the outsider ?
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I was in the bookies the other day and they had a Grand National with past winners of the race, I was wondering if it was an actual simulation (small random change of falling at each fence for example) or just predetermined. Rough Quest came 3rd, Red Rum unplaced.
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I don't know, if he gets this beat he should probably give up ?
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2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:
Serjeant Painter been backed on first run for Ben Pauling. No form to speak of over hurdles and 7lbs out the handicap so must be more expected from the stable. I've taken a bit of 9/2 at bet365.
Bit frustrating to finish 2nd, Nico threw the kitchen sink at it but found one way too good.
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Serjeant Painter been backed on first run for Ben Pauling. No form to speak of over hurdles and 7lbs out the handicap so must be more expected from the stable. I've taken a bit of 9/2 at bet365.
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Not had a bet but I'd go for Bournemouth to beat Swansea in the final. Don't trust the Brentford defence for the biggest games.
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7:20 Uttox, Hills priced this up early and have Wye Aye at 4/1, which seems generous if you can get on with them! Won last 2 chases doing handsprings despite not really settling last time at Newcastle. Back over hurdles off 107 (rated 120 over fences now, and last racing post rating was 124). Doesn't always work out switching back to hurdles but obvious chance if adapting.
- The Equaliser, The Brigadier, BBBC and 1 other
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Sheffield Wednesday 3.10
Forest 2.25
Noriwch 2.6
£8.65 win treble
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Come on Swansea!
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Wembley the obvious one, almost won last time from an unpromising position. The better ground and step up in trip in his favour, can't really see why Thunder Moon should be a shorter price based on that run.
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Sheffield Wednesday 2.15
Swansea 2.3
Bournemouth 1.55
£16 win treble
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Risk a Fine 5/1 in a spot now.
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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Not sure but a lot of tricky races for us punters and, the 3 qualifying races 1.35,2.45 and 3.20 have short priced favourites. Do you think that Stradivarious will win? It seems to me that no one puts up very good competitive challengers against it which is quite annoying
Sure there will be worse 4/6 chances, he'll most likely hoover up another 40k prize money.
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1 hour ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:
4.50 Sandown - 2pts win Iconic Muddle @ 5/1
I always like when Rupert goes for the same one as me! This one should improve for the step up in trip and is at the right end of the handicap, gets loads of weight from the solid looking Killer Clown. I was surprised he nearly won over 2m at Huntingdon and will be bouncing fit for this. Competitive race though so not going crazy.
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Bournemouth 2.45
Birmingham 3.2
£33.30 win double
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Bit of a weird move in the next at Perth, veteran's chase. Eagle Ridge was as big as 16/1 last night, into as short as 3/1, general 4/1. Narrowly won a handicap in January off 87, running off 96 today so someone must think he's improved for some reason. Not had a bet, just noticed the betting, interesting to see what happens.
Racing Chat - Friday 2nd July
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Just watched it again and Bond Chairman finished like a train, was his third run, had more cover and the rail. Another one for the tracker though!