MCLARKE

CHELTENHAM STATISTICS
Based on the last 10 years
 
SP rank in previous race 4 to 8. 59 winners from 1,285 runners, LSP 506 (Betfair Starting Price.
 Bred in Ireland. 146 from 2,387, LSP 413.
120 winners (43%) ran at just 3 courses last time, Leopardstown (65), Cheltenham (38) and Naas (17). From a total of 1,243 runners the profit was 386 points.
 Race distance same as previous race. 90 from 1,232, LSP 366.
 Poor run last time (in bottom third of field). 42 from 913, LSP 236.
 Race value no more than or no less than 40% of previous race. 84 from 1,033, LSP 209.
 Ran in a stakes race last time. 210 from 2,793, LSP 206.
 Ran in a Group 2 or Group 3 race last time. 87 from 1,178, LSP 206.
 Distance won by last time 3 lengths to 14 lengths. 97 from 727, LSP 92.

CHELTENHAM STATISTICS
Based on the last 10 years
 
SP rank in previous race 4 to 8. 59 winners from 1,285 runners, LSP 506 (Betfair Starting Price.
 Bred in Ireland. 146 from 2,387, LSP 413.
120 winners (43%) ran at just 3 courses last time, Leopardstown (65), Cheltenham (38) and Naas (17). From a total of 1,243 runners the profit was 386 points.
 Race distance same as previous race. 90 from 1,232, LSP 366.
 Poor run last time (in bottom third of field). 42 from 913, LSP 236.
 Race value no more than or no less than 40% of previous race. 84 from 1,033, LSP 209.
 Ran in a stakes race last time. 210 from 2,793, LSP 206.
 Ran in a Group 2 or Group 3 race last time. 87 from 1,178, LSP 206.
 Distance won by last time 3 lengths to 14 lengths. 97 from 727, LSP 92.

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Cheltenham, Tuesday 12th to Friday 15th March.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £100 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £40 and the third place wins £20, all prizes via your PayPal account There will be a £10 prize each day for the highest profit for that day No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter every day or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for the total prizes Only bets on that day's thread will be included, bets posted elsewhere will not be included  
All welcome, good luck
A separate thread will be created the evening before each day for selections to be posted in.

AW selection
Wolverhampton 7.00
STELLA HOGAN

I didn't realize I was surrounded by so many Blades fans !

Yep,it's getting a bit tight at the bottom of the table. Probably 50/50 that we'll be playing you lot next season.

CHELTENHAM STATISTICS
Based on the last 10 years
 
SP rank in previous race 4 to 8. 59 winners from 1,285 runners, LSP 506 (Betfair Starting Price.
 Bred in Ireland. 146 from 2,387, LSP 413.
120 winners (43%) ran at just 3 courses last time, Leopardstown (65), Cheltenham (38) and Naas (17). From a total of 1,243 runners the profit was 386 points.
 Race distance same as previous race. 90 from 1,232, LSP 366.
 Poor run last time (in bottom third of field). 42 from 913, LSP 236.
 Race value no more than or no less than 40% of previous race. 84 from 1,033, LSP 209.
 Ran in a stakes race last time. 210 from 2,793, LSP 206.
 Ran in a Group 2 or Group 3 race last time. 87 from 1,178, LSP 206.
 Distance won by last time 3 lengths to 14 lengths. 97 from 727, LSP 92.

CHELTENHAM STATISTICS
Based on the last 10 years
 
SP rank in previous race 4 to 8. 59 winners from 1,285 runners, LSP 506 (Betfair Starting Price.
 Bred in Ireland. 146 from 2,387, LSP 413.
120 winners (43%) ran at just 3 courses last time, Leopardstown (65), Cheltenham (38) and Naas (17). From a total of 1,243 runners the profit was 386 points.
 Race distance same as previous race. 90 from 1,232, LSP 366.
 Poor run last time (in bottom third of field). 42 from 913, LSP 236.
 Race value no more than or no less than 40% of previous race. 84 from 1,033, LSP 209.
 Ran in a stakes race last time. 210 from 2,793, LSP 206.
 Ran in a Group 2 or Group 3 race last time. 87 from 1,178, LSP 206.
 Distance won by last time 3 lengths to 14 lengths. 97 from 727, LSP 92.

CHAMPION HURDLE
This is a race where the favourite has an extremely strong record. 7 of the last 10 races have been won by the forecast favourite, with a ROI of 67%.
Horses should have had at least 4 wins in the last 6 races. There have been 67 horses that did not meet this criterion and all of them have lost.
The last win should have been in the last 78 days. Those that did not have a record of 0 from 55.
The last win should have been by at least 2 lengths. There were 65 horses that did not and only 1 won.
It is not very exciting but STATE MAN ticks all the boxes but at a skinny price of 2/5.

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
A good run last time is important. 8 of the last 10 winners (from 90 runners) came in the top third last time and returned a profit. The remainder have a record of 2 wins from 130 runs with a loss of 71 points.
For such a competitive handicap the betting is a good guide. Those in the top 6 of the forecast betting have 9 wins from 68 runs with a profit of 32 points. The remainder have just 1 win from 152 runs with a loss of 103 points.
Ideally the horse should have had a win in the last 3 runs. These horses have a record of 6 wins from 84 runs with a profit of 17 points.
4 of the last 10 winners (from 31 runners) had their last run at Cheltenham.
The current 4th favourite STUMPTOWN ticks all these boxes and is available at 9/1 with some bookmakers (6 places).

Hi all!
The final episode of our Cheltenham Festival 2024 tips preview podcast has been released. You can find it via the link below. Join @Darran and @The Brigadier as they discuss the contenders for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the other six races taking place on day four of the festival. Share your thoughts on their views right here or in the comments below the video. 

Cheltenham Festival 2024 Day 4 Tips Preview Podcast

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh.
Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple.
Race 1
There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. 
He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial.
Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat.
If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch.
Race 2
Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well.
Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill
Race 3
There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere.
Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. 
Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race.
Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him.
Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. 
I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat.
Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill
Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356
 

Cheltenham 1.30 The 2024 Cheltenham Festival kicks off with a dozen novice hurdlers facing the tape for the usual curtain raiser the 2M 87 yard Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Willie Mullins sets a poser by saddling six of the field and with stable jockey Paul Townend choosing Tullyhill, he looks sure to be thereabouts. It may be Mullins’s arch Irish rival Gordon Elliott though that takes first blood with his Firefox. He beat the very smart Ballyburn on his hurdling debut at this trip and although blowing out in the Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle in January, that was over 2M 4F and back to the minimum trip and with Jack Kennedy in the plate can get us off to a flyer. He’s worth backing each way with the firms who are paying an extra place.   FIREFOX 1 point each way @ 5/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234   Cheltenham 2.10 A fair sized field of ten line up for the My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Novices’ Chase run over just short of two miles. Ireland have won six of the last 9 renewals and that can be extended here with the Gordon Elliott trained Found A Fifty. He went down by a neck to Il Etait Temps at the Dublin Racing Festival in February and there shouldn’t be much between them here today on identical terms. Willie Mullins runs three with Paul Townend on board Gaelic Warrior who’s been runner up at the Festival in the last two years. He does have questions to answer now though after a lack lustre effort at the Dublin Racing Festival with his tendency to jump out to the right a negative here. This looks one for the Irish with Found A Fifty just shading it.   FOUND A FIFTY 1 point each way @ 11/2 BetVictor 1/5th 123   Cheltenham 2.50 The first handicap of the week is the 23 runner Ultima Handicap run over 3M 1F. As always it’s an open race where you will need plenty of luck in running. Last year’s fourth The Goffer and Willie Mullin’s Meetingofthewaters both holding decent claims but this is a race that normally goes to the home team and it can go the way of Kim Bailey. Bailey has two in the race and although I have slight preference for Chianti Classico it’s also worth backing his other runner Trelawne. Both are novices with the former having only his fourth start over fences. He appears the pick of stable jockey David Bass who will be throwing the horse into the fences whilst Harry Cobden has the ride on the latter who’s novice form over fences stacks up well and he should relish a step up to today’s distance.   CHIANTI CLASSICO 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 123456 TRELAWNE 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456   Cheltenham 3.30 Despite the defection of reigning champion Constitution Hill we still have a field of eight for the Unibet Champion Hurdle run over 2M 87 yards. Willie Mullins has the very warm favourite in State Man who has won ten of his 12 completed starts under rules and was runner up last year. He is officially 10lb and upwards better than these and it will be a big shock were he not to win. I ca see him being very well backed and going off more a 1/4 shot at post time. He’s hard to oppose with second favourite Irish Point dropping a mile in trip having impressed at Leopardstown over 3M at Christmas. Nicky Henderson supplemented Iberico Lord last week and although on figures he has plenty to find he is an improver who loves soft good, has good form at the track and the form of his Betfair Hurdle victory at Newbury last time out was franked at the weekend in the Imperial Cup. He can make the frame but this is all about State Man who should win.   STATE MAN 2 points win @ 4/11 Unibet   Cheltenham 4.10 A field of eleven go to post for the 2M 4F Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle. A warm favourite here is the Willie Mullins trained Lossiemouth who was a winner at the Festival last season in the Triumph Hurdle. She looked good when re-appearing in the Unibet Hurdle here on trials day in January and if in the same form will be hard to beat. The one question mark against her mind is the fact that she has yet to race over today’s trip. She wasn’t stopping at the end of her victory last time over 3 furlongs shorter though and connections appear to have no fears of her not staying. However at around the 4/7 mark she is scant value and even though she should win I’m happy to back one against her each way who we know will love the ground, trip and track in the shape of Harry Fry’s Love Envoi. She won the Mares’ Novices Hurdle in 2022 and was runner up in this last year to Honeysuckle. She does have some distance to make up with Lossiemouth on Unibet Hurdle form but at a double figure price she is maybe the value.   LOVE ENVOI 1 point each way @ 16/1 William Hill 1/5th 123   Cheltenham 4.50 A maximum field of twenty two line up for the 2M 87 yard Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. It has a wide open look about it with big priced winners amongst the roll of honour over the last decade. A chance can be given to many with French trainers Noel George & A Zetterholm holding every chance with one of two J P McMnaus owned runners in the shape of Milan Tino. He’s already got experience of the track having finished third to useful sorts Burdett Road and Sir Gino. At a much bigger price it maybe worth chancing Paul Nolan’s runner Palamon who has the look of one that’s been brought along with this race in mind. A 79 rated horse on the level for Richard Hannon he showed his best form so far over timber when third (beaten 3 3/4L) to the re-opposing Ndaawi and is now 13lb better off. The fourth from that race has won since to give it a boost and although Ndaawi won cosily that day the turn around in the weights may give the chestnut a chance of getting closer at a big price. Many others can be given chances but it’s Milan Tino and Palamon for me.   MILAN TINO 1 point each way @ 13/2 Unibet 1/5th 123456 PALAMON 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 123456   Cheltenham 5.30 A small but select field of seven go to post for the 3M 6F Maureen Mullins National Hunt Challenge Cup for amateur riders. The two favourites surprisingly are both racing in a fist time hood and slight preference is for the Emmet Mullins trained Corbetts Cross who may well have won at this fixture last year but for crashing out at the last in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle, which is a good guide to the likely winner of this contest. He does have to prove himself over this longer trip as like his biggest danger, the Willie Mullins trained Embassy Gardens but looks all about stamina and can give Derek O’Connor his third victory in the race. Some firms are paying three places on this seven runner contest so it may also be worth a small each way bet on the only horse who has raced beyond 3M in the Sara Bradstock trained Mr Vango who wears first time cheek pieces and was a 60L winner of a handicap over today’s trip at Exeter. He has officially 22lb to find but with some of these having stamina to prove could stay on into a place at a big price.   CORBETTS CROSS 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365 MR VANGO 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 123

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Cheltenham, Tuesday 12th to Friday 15th March.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £100 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £40 and the third place wins £20, all prizes via your PayPal account There will be a £10 prize each day for the highest profit for that day No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter every day or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for the total prizes Only bets on that day's thread will be included, bets posted elsewhere will not be included  
All welcome, good luck
A separate thread will be created the evening before each day for selections to be posted in.

I didn't realize I was surrounded by so many Blades fans !

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
A good run last time is important. 8 of the last 10 winners (from 90 runners) came in the top third last time and returned a profit. The remainder have a record of 2 wins from 130 runs with a loss of 71 points.
For such a competitive handicap the betting is a good guide. Those in the top 6 of the forecast betting have 9 wins from 68 runs with a profit of 32 points. The remainder have just 1 win from 152 runs with a loss of 103 points.
Ideally the horse should have had a win in the last 3 runs. These horses have a record of 6 wins from 84 runs with a profit of 17 points.
4 of the last 10 winners (from 31 runners) had their last run at Cheltenham.
The current 4th favourite STUMPTOWN ticks all these boxes and is available at 9/1 with some bookmakers (6 places).

CHAMPION HURDLE
This is a race where the favourite has an extremely strong record. 7 of the last 10 races have been won by the forecast favourite, with a ROI of 67%.
Horses should have had at least 4 wins in the last 6 races. There have been 67 horses that did not meet this criterion and all of them have lost.
The last win should have been in the last 78 days. Those that did not have a record of 0 from 55.
The last win should have been by at least 2 lengths. There were 65 horses that did not and only 1 won.
It is not very exciting but STATE MAN ticks all the boxes but at a skinny price of 2/5.

20.30 Sth : Valsad - 10/1 Bet365
 

absoloute dream 730 south 22/1 bet365

Hi everyone!
Here is the third episode of the four-part Cheltenham Festival 2024 tips preview podcast. In this episode, @The Brigadier and @Darran chat about the third day of racing at the festival and offer their thoughts on the seven races including the feature race of the Stayers' Hurdle. If you have any thoughts on their analysis then feel free to share below! 
Cheltenham Festival 2024 Day 3 Tips Preview Podcast

Hi all,
The second episode of the Punters Lounge Cheltenham Festival 2024 tips previews is up. You can watch it via the link below. @The Brigadier and @Darran cover the second day of racing in this episode with the main focus being on the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Let us know your thoughts below. 
Cheltenham Festival 2024 Day 2 Tips Preview Podcast

Won  - today +20.00
month + 63.39

Grand annual 
Solness 8.7 16/1 
Pembroke  8.5 44.0
Path doro 8.4 12.5 
Saint roi  8.2 
Dancing on own  8.2 
Another tricky hcap ....at current prices I'll try 10pt on top 3 and forecasts