MCLARKE

Won. BSP 10.19
Profit £ 180.12 (who needs Cheltenham)
Monthly profit £ 263.53

COUNTY HURDLE
 High rated horses have a poor record. Those with a BHB rating of 140 or above have 2 wins from 140 runs with a loss of 120 points. The remainder have 7 wins from 105 runs with a profit of 123 points.
 A decent rest is useful. Horses that have not had a run in the last 6 weeks have produced 5 wins from 51 runs with a profit of 59 points.
 This leaves just 2, GIN COCO (50/1) and AUCUNURISQUE (50/1), 6 places.

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
I have looked at the statistics over the last 10 years and these are my top 5 that should be considered.
It is not generally a race for big outsiders. The horse should be in the first 7 in the betting forecast. There have been 56 outside this range and they have all lost.
5 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown, 2 at Tramore, 2 at Newbury and 1 at Thurles. Those that ran at the other 11 tracks had 0 winners from 68 runners, including 21 that previously ran at Cheltenham and 16 at Kempton.
This leaves 3, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (11/10), FASTORSLOW (6/1) and GERRI COLOMBE (8/1).
Horses aged 7 or 8 perform best. These horses have won 9 times from 65 attempts with a level stakes profit of 18 points. The rest have just 1 win from 65 attempts with a loss of 62 points.
8 winners (from 38 runners) were sent off last time at odds of 2/1 or less. This removes FASTORSLOW.
There is an ideal rest period of 33 to 73 days with this producing 9 winners from 69 runners.
This leaves GALOPIN DES CHAMPS at 11/10. Not an imaginative selection but he ticks all the boxes.

I know thank god tell you the truth French and all weather are my main money makers these days . Never know today could be the day 💰🤞😂

Fret ye not , it's the best race of the week tomorrow , The Midlands National , the war of attrition & then a week tomorrow , it's The Lincoln , happy days , UK turf racing , in a swamp probably 😆

I would normally leave it until the morning but on Grandad duties and haven't got her into the horses yet. She's not 2 yet so plenty of time !

Kempton 1.35 Just the five face the starter for this class 3 2M 2F novices’ handicap chase. Gary Moore saddles the favourite Issar d’Airy who will be very hard to beat. The six year old is two from two over fences having won twice at Newbury over the minimum trip rising 16lb in the process. The horse he beat last time I’d Like To Know franked the form when winning since at the same track. He is a confident selection to beat his biggest danger in the Paul Nicholls trained Beau Balko who won last time out at Mussleburgh.   ISSAR d’AIRY 2 points win @ 6/4 William Hill   Uttoxeter 1.50 Nine line up for this 2M 4F class 3 handicap hurdle which can fall to the in form Stuart Edmunds trained One Eye On Vegas, who’s well named as he is blind in one eye! His form has taken off since sporting cheek pieces winning handicap hurdles at Leicester and Hereford rising some 18lb in the handicap. He gets in here off of bottom weight and as a habitual front runner expect to see his usual pilot Ciaran Gethings making plenty of use of him on ground that suits well. Jagwar has already been beaten off of this mark so the danger may well be Emma Lavelle’s Canty Bay.   ONE EYE ON VEGAS 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365   Kempton 2.10 A dozen line up for the class 2 handicap hurdle run over 2M 5F. Several have chances including the progressive Robbie Llewellyn trained Titan Discovery who’s up 6lb for his latest victory at Sandown and the Paul Nicholls trained Irish Hill who continues to tumble down the handicap. Anthony Honeyball has a good chance with his eight year old Good Luck Charm who’s run well in similar type of handicaps this season and off of the same handicap mark should be competitive and looks the each way bet under 3lb conditional jockey Ben Godfrey. Don’t disregard the bottom weight Thunderclap either who impressed over course and distance on his penultimate run from subsequent winner Madame. He’s worth a small each way saver at a big price.   GOOD LUCK CHARM 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 THUNDERCLAP 1/2 bet each way @ 28/1 William Hill   Uttoxeter 2.25 A very competitive eighteen runner class 2 handicap hurdle over 2M 7F 70 yards in which several hold very decent chances. The 2M 7 1/2F handicap hurdle at Chepstow in February may be the key piece of form to this race. David Braces’s Classic Concorde made all to beat Supremely West who came with a wet sail over the last by 2 1/2L and now on 3lb better terms and in first time blinkers it will be no surprise were Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole’s six year old to turn the tables on his older rival today and he’s the main bet here. Back in fourth that day was Thursday’s Pertemps Hurdle winner Monmiral to give the form a good look. I also can’t resist a small each way saver on Fergal O’Brien’s Alaphilippe who also ran in that race finishing ninth, beaten 32L although watching the race back he ran a lot better than his finishing position suggests as his jockey Paddy Brennan looked after him after the last. A drop of 3lb and first time cheek pieces may help him find some improvement. He was just touched off in the 2022 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at Cheltenham from a 6lb higher mark so there's no doubt he’s a well handicapped horse.   SUPREMELY WEST 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 ALAPHILIPPE 1/2 point each way @ 50/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   Kempton 2.45 Just nine face the judge for this 2M 4 1/2F class 2 Handicap Chase. Dan and Harry Skelton have had a fantastic week at Cheltenham and can keep the good form going with their track specialist Flegmatik here. The horse has won three times from 7 starts at the course with figures of 3110214 with the fourth coming last time out when finishing just 2 1/2L behind Forward Plan in the valuable Coral Trophy Handicap Chase over 3M. His previous win here came from this week’s Ultima winner Chianti Classico so the form is solid. He has to cope with a drop in distance but I don’t really see that as a problem and he looks the pick with Paul Nicholls’s Outlaw Peter the danger.   FLEGMATIK 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill   Uttoxeter 3.00 This year’s Midlands Grand National has only attracted a field of thirteen which is rather disappointing. There are many here that should stay this marathon trip of 4M 2F including My Silver Lining, who won the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick in January over 3M 5F prior to a good second in the Haydock Grand National Trial. Autonomous Cloud just got the better of Iron Bridge in the 3M novices handicap chase on this card last year and the pair renew rivalry with both holding claims if lasting out this longer trip. One horse who does interest me at a big price is the Irish challenger Young Dev. The only time he’s attempted a marathon trip as long as this was in this race two years ago when he finished second (10L 2nd to fellow countryman Screaming Colours). He can race off of a mark here 9lb lower and back up in distance he’s the value bet in a very competitive renewal.   YOUNG DEV 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Uttoxeter 3.35 A valuable eight runner 3M novices’ Handicap Chase concludes the ITV coverage today. Christian Williams has had a quiet season so far but the signs are that he’s about to spring into form having had two winners from his last ten runners at time of writing which includes his bottom weight here Fortunefavorsdbold. Only a six year old he appears to have taken his form up a notch since wearing cheek pieces winning at Huntingdon and Lingfield rising just 10lb. He gets in here off of bottom weight and although this will be a lot tougher than the three runner race he won at Lingfield he can be competitive at an each way price for Jack Tudor. There is a strong possibility that the race may drop to seven runners with top weight Marsh Wren also down to run at Cheltenham on Friday so if that’s the case hunt around for a firm who pay three places on seven runner contests.   FOURTUNEFAVORSDBOLD 1 point each way @ 13/2 bet365 1/5 123    

55 minutes after the Cheltenham race we have the Fakenham hunter chase and it looks a really interesting contest. Knight In Dubai actually went to a couple of Cheltenham Festivals when he beat one home in Samcro's Ballymore win and the year after he was 13th in the Coral Cup. He's not won under rules since December 2019 although he's not had that many goes since then and he was going close off 130 last season. He's gone to James Owen's wife's yard and he has won both starts in points at Horseheath this year. His form under rules was over shorted than 3m, but Horseheath is a fair test so he ought to see it out round here. He had his stablemate Grand Roi in behind him in the first win which gives us a bit of basis for the form, but as he proved again on Monday, he's a hard horse to win with. He won easier in the 2nd start, but this should be a tougher test. He does get weight from every other horse in the race and he can win, but I think I am happy enough to look elsewhere.   I am a big fan of Rebel Dawn Rising and he has been a bit unlucky not to add to his Leicester hunter chase win a couple of years ago. He made his seasonal reappearance in this race last year and whilst I'm not sure he would have beaten Bennys King, he never got a chance to because he was brought down at the 7th. On Easter Monday he was set to beat Janika and Firak over course and distance until he ran around on the run to the last fence and unseated Dale as he took off. I thought he ran with great credit behind Premier Magic at Cheltenham as he gave it a good go, but he just didn't stay and finishing within 17L of him over 3m2f is a top effort. Clearly 3m round here is fine and he has won first up before. He also wont mind what the weather does as it could rain before the race gets underway.   I'm very surprised Firak is out again after Leicester. He ran way below par here on Easter Monday and it looked like he just didn't handle the track. He more than likely wouldn't have won last week, but the hampering at 3 out meant he didn't get the chance to put the winner under pressure. My issue is though is he never looked like he was going all that well and that's the main reason I'm surprised he's out again. So whilst I think he has the ability to win the fact he didn't seem to handle the track, has around 20L to turn around with Rebel Dawn Rising, and he looked to have a hard race last week means I am happy to take him on.   Ed Turner's horses tend to always come on for a run or two so the fact Janika pulled up behind Fier Jaguen at Garthorpe on his return last month is no real surprise. The problem is he was 12L behind Rebel Dawn Rising at Garthorpe last March and would have been behind him again if he had jumped the last on Easter Monday. He wouldn't be for me.   Dan Skelton has links to 3 horses in this race as he also used to train Shentri. He had been off the track since July 2022 before make his pointing debut at Higham last month. Higham wouldn't be that dissimilar to Fakenham so the track should suit. Whilst he didn't get as high as Knight In Dubai in the ratings, he is only 7 so could be open to improvement and crucially he was very impressive when winning at Higham. He bolted up by 20L there and the time was the quickest of the day. He was quicker than The Big Lense on the same card despite carrying 7lbs more so that makes it a really good effort for me. I guess we have to consider the bounce factor, but more of a concern might be if it rains as has pretty much only run on good ground.    Given Chief Black Robe couldn't win a maiden point last season it was quite something that a move to Fergal O'Brien's saw him win 4 handicaps on the bounce. He started off of a mark of 88 and his 4th win was off 115. He then went to the Summer Plate at Market Rasen and finished 4th before getting beat at 2/5 at Newton Abott in September. Back with his owner/rider now  he returned at Ampton last month and was 3rd of 4 beaten 13L. I don't think you can completely rule him out given the 4th at Market Rasen, but you do get the feeling that maybe Fergal had a fair bit to with the improvement.    All of them have some sort of chance, but I am happy enough to take back Rebel Dawn Rising and Shentri against the field. I think Rebel Dawn Rising is the best horse in the race and as much as he has to give race fitness away, the fact he's won 1st up before and wasn't unfancied to beat Bennys King in this last year, I think that won't be an issue. I want Shentri onside as well because I think that win at Higham is the best recent form of the season and if it isn't too soft for him he ought to go close.   Rebel Dawn Rising 2pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Shentri 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)

+£1 had a couple of good starts but not to be 
day 77
+£137

Back in the day most pro punters concentrated/analysed one race a day (time restrictions) but with the advent of computers it then became easily possible to pretty much analyse 4 or more and in many cases all races (i have done that myself in the recent past) so it seems logical to me if you are going to have say 4 single bets a day to £20 quid then why not bet £18.50 instead and use the excess on a lucky 15? Because if you are going to spend x amount of time selecting your horses presumably you would have to really fancy them to bet each to £20 therefore imagine the situation where all 4 won or even 3 for that matter. That system has worked pretty well for me over the years as long as i had put the work in. Your arguments against multiples are sound when applied to mug or casual punters but use their (bookies) own weapons against them if you are smart/experienced enough and are prepared to do the work. At the lower levels or where you feel the odds are against you just like you have done this week (and i agree with you Cheltenham is a bad betting proposition) it becomes an entertainment bet and that in itself has value. Good luck tomorrow one and all.

Annoying isn't it? All that number crunching just to find 2 non runners. 

COUNTY HURDLE
 High rated horses have a poor record. Those with a BHB rating of 140 or above have 2 wins from 140 runs with a loss of 120 points. The remainder have 7 wins from 105 runs with a profit of 123 points.
 A decent rest is useful. Horses that have not had a run in the last 6 weeks have produced 5 wins from 51 runs with a profit of 59 points.
 This leaves just 2, GIN COCO (50/1) and AUCUNURISQUE (50/1), 6 places.

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
I have looked at the statistics over the last 10 years and these are my top 5 that should be considered.
It is not generally a race for big outsiders. The horse should be in the first 7 in the betting forecast. There have been 56 outside this range and they have all lost.
5 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown, 2 at Tramore, 2 at Newbury and 1 at Thurles. Those that ran at the other 11 tracks had 0 winners from 68 runners, including 21 that previously ran at Cheltenham and 16 at Kempton.
This leaves 3, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (11/10), FASTORSLOW (6/1) and GERRI COLOMBE (8/1).
Horses aged 7 or 8 perform best. These horses have won 9 times from 65 attempts with a level stakes profit of 18 points. The rest have just 1 win from 65 attempts with a loss of 62 points.
8 winners (from 38 runners) were sent off last time at odds of 2/1 or less. This removes FASTORSLOW.
There is an ideal rest period of 33 to 73 days with this producing 9 winners from 69 runners.
This leaves GALOPIN DES CHAMPS at 11/10. Not an imaginative selection but he ticks all the boxes.

COUNTY HURDLE
 High rated horses have a poor record. Those with a BHB rating of 140 or above have 2 wins from 140 runs with a loss of 120 points. The remainder have 7 wins from 105 runs with a profit of 123 points.
 A decent rest is useful. Horses that have not had a run in the last 6 weeks have produced 5 wins from 51 runs with a profit of 59 points.
 This leaves just 2, GIN COCO (50/1) and AUCUNURISQUE (50/1), 6 places.

COUNTY HURDLE
 High rated horses have a poor record. Those with a BHB rating of 140 or above have 2 wins from 140 runs with a loss of 120 points. The remainder have 7 wins from 105 runs with a profit of 123 points.
 A decent rest is useful. Horses that have not had a run in the last 6 weeks have produced 5 wins from 51 runs with a profit of 59 points.
 This leaves just 2, GIN COCO (50/1) and AUCUNURISQUE (50/1), 6 places.

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
I have looked at the statistics over the last 10 years and these are my top 5 that should be considered.
It is not generally a race for big outsiders. The horse should be in the first 7 in the betting forecast. There have been 56 outside this range and they have all lost.
5 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown, 2 at Tramore, 2 at Newbury and 1 at Thurles. Those that ran at the other 11 tracks had 0 winners from 68 runners, including 21 that previously ran at Cheltenham and 16 at Kempton.
This leaves 3, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (11/10), FASTORSLOW (6/1) and GERRI COLOMBE (8/1).
Horses aged 7 or 8 perform best. These horses have won 9 times from 65 attempts with a level stakes profit of 18 points. The rest have just 1 win from 65 attempts with a loss of 62 points.
8 winners (from 38 runners) were sent off last time at odds of 2/1 or less. This removes FASTORSLOW.
There is an ideal rest period of 33 to 73 days with this producing 9 winners from 69 runners.
This leaves GALOPIN DES CHAMPS at 11/10. Not an imaginative selection but he ticks all the boxes.

Only 1 gun firing, £3.40 return

@Tedthewolf is the only player to pick 25/1 winner Monmiral and that is enough to make him the daily winner.
@Old codger has another good day and moves into the overall lead.




 

@Tedthewolf is the only player to pick 25/1 winner Monmiral and that is enough to make him the daily winner.
@Old codger has another good day and moves into the overall lead.




 

Won. BSP 10.19
Profit £ 180.12 (who needs Cheltenham)
Monthly profit £ 263.53

COUNTY HURDLE
 High rated horses have a poor record. Those with a BHB rating of 140 or above have 2 wins from 140 runs with a loss of 120 points. The remainder have 7 wins from 105 runs with a profit of 123 points.
 A decent rest is useful. Horses that have not had a run in the last 6 weeks have produced 5 wins from 51 runs with a profit of 59 points.
 This leaves just 2, GIN COCO (50/1) and AUCUNURISQUE (50/1), 6 places.

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
I have looked at the statistics over the last 10 years and these are my top 5 that should be considered.
It is not generally a race for big outsiders. The horse should be in the first 7 in the betting forecast. There have been 56 outside this range and they have all lost.
5 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown, 2 at Tramore, 2 at Newbury and 1 at Thurles. Those that ran at the other 11 tracks had 0 winners from 68 runners, including 21 that previously ran at Cheltenham and 16 at Kempton.
This leaves 3, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (11/10), FASTORSLOW (6/1) and GERRI COLOMBE (8/1).
Horses aged 7 or 8 perform best. These horses have won 9 times from 65 attempts with a level stakes profit of 18 points. The rest have just 1 win from 65 attempts with a loss of 62 points.
8 winners (from 38 runners) were sent off last time at odds of 2/1 or less. This removes FASTORSLOW.
There is an ideal rest period of 33 to 73 days with this producing 9 winners from 69 runners.
This leaves GALOPIN DES CHAMPS at 11/10. Not an imaginative selection but he ticks all the boxes.

COUNTY HURDLE
 High rated horses have a poor record. Those with a BHB rating of 140 or above have 2 wins from 140 runs with a loss of 120 points. The remainder have 7 wins from 105 runs with a profit of 123 points.
 A decent rest is useful. Horses that have not had a run in the last 6 weeks have produced 5 wins from 51 runs with a profit of 59 points.
 This leaves just 2, GIN COCO (50/1) and AUCUNURISQUE (50/1), 6 places.

Another good day, profit now stands at £ 392.91, thanks again mostly to a £20 BETMGM free bet on Langer Dan at 7/1 (tipped by @The Brigadier)

Won. BSP 10.19
Profit £ 180.12 (who needs Cheltenham)
Monthly profit £ 263.53