Racing Chat - Saturday 16th March

[The Brigadier]

Kempton 1.35

Just the five face the starter for this class 3 2M 2F novices’ handicap chase. Gary Moore saddles the favourite Issar d’Airy who will be very hard to beat. The six year old is two from two over fences having won twice at Newbury over the minimum trip rising 16lb in the process. The horse he beat last time I’d Like To Know franked the form when winning since at the same track. He is a confident selection to beat his biggest danger in the Paul Nicholls trained Beau Balko who won last time out at Mussleburgh.

 

ISSAR d’AIRY 2 points win @ 6/4 William Hill

 

Uttoxeter 1.50

Nine line up for this 2M 4F class 3 handicap hurdle which can fall to the in form Stuart Edmunds trained One Eye On Vegas, who’s well named as he is blind in one eye! His form has taken off since sporting cheek pieces winning handicap hurdles at Leicester and Hereford rising some 18lb in the handicap. He gets in here off of bottom weight and as a habitual front runner expect to see his usual pilot Ciaran Gethings making plenty of use of him on ground that suits well. Jagwar has already been beaten off of this mark so the danger may well be Emma Lavelle’s Canty Bay.

 

ONE EYE ON VEGAS 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365

 

Kempton 2.10

A dozen line up for the class 2 handicap hurdle run over 2M 5F. Several have chances including the progressive Robbie Llewellyn trained Titan Discovery who’s up 6lb for his latest victory at Sandown and the Paul Nicholls trained Irish Hill who continues to tumble down the handicap. Anthony Honeyball has a good chance with his eight year old Good Luck Charm who’s run well in similar type of handicaps this season and off of the same handicap mark should be competitive and looks the each way bet under 3lb conditional jockey Ben Godfrey. Don’t disregard the bottom weight Thunderclap either who impressed over course and distance on his penultimate run from subsequent winner Madame. He’s worth a small each way saver at a big price.

 

GOOD LUCK CHARM 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

THUNDERCLAP 1/2 bet each way @ 28/1 William Hill

 

Uttoxeter 2.25

A very competitive eighteen runner class 2 handicap hurdle over 2M 7F 70 yards in which several hold very decent chances. The 2M 7 1/2F handicap hurdle at Chepstow in February may be the key piece of form to this race. David Braces’s Classic Concorde made all to beat Supremely West who came with a wet sail over the last by 2 1/2L and now on 3lb better terms and in first time blinkers it will be no surprise were Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole’s six year old to turn the tables on his older rival today and he’s the main bet here. Back in fourth that day was Thursday’s Pertemps Hurdle winner Monmiral to give the form a good look. I also can’t resist a small each way saver on Fergal O’Brien’s Alaphilippe who also ran in that race finishing ninth, beaten 32L although watching the race back he ran a lot better than his finishing position suggests as his jockey Paddy Brennan looked after him after the last. A drop of 3lb and first time cheek pieces may help him find some improvement. He was just touched off in the 2022 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at Cheltenham from a 6lb higher mark so there's no doubt he’s a well handicapped horse.

 

SUPREMELY WEST 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

ALAPHILIPPE 1/2 point each way @ 50/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

 

Kempton 2.45

Just nine face the judge for this 2M 4 1/2F class 2 Handicap Chase. Dan and Harry Skelton have had a fantastic week at Cheltenham and can keep the good form going with their track specialist Flegmatik here. The horse has won three times from 7 starts at the course with figures of 3110214 with the fourth coming last time out when finishing just 2 1/2L behind Forward Plan in the valuable Coral Trophy Handicap Chase over 3M. His previous win here came from this week’s Ultima winner Chianti Classico so the form is solid. He has to cope with a drop in distance but I don’t really see that as a problem and he looks the pick with Paul Nicholls’s Outlaw Peter the danger.

 

FLEGMATIK 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Uttoxeter 3.00

This year’s Midlands Grand National has only attracted a field of thirteen which is rather disappointing. There are many here that should stay this marathon trip of 4M 2F including My Silver Lining, who won the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick in January over 3M 5F prior to a good second in the Haydock Grand National Trial. Autonomous Cloud just got the better of Iron Bridge in the 3M novices handicap chase on this card last year and the pair renew rivalry with both holding claims if lasting out this longer trip. One horse who does interest me at a big price is the Irish challenger Young Dev. The only time he’s attempted a marathon trip as long as this was in this race two years ago when he finished second (10L 2nd to fellow countryman Screaming Colours). He can race off of a mark here 9lb lower and back up in distance he’s the value bet in a very competitive renewal.

 

YOUNG DEV 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Uttoxeter 3.35

A valuable eight runner 3M novices’ Handicap Chase concludes the ITV coverage today. Christian Williams has had a quiet season so far but the signs are that he’s about to spring into form having had two winners from his last ten runners at time of writing which includes his bottom weight here Fortunefavorsdbold. Only a six year old he appears to have taken his form up a notch since wearing cheek pieces winning at Huntingdon and Lingfield rising just 10lb. He gets in here off of bottom weight and although this will be a lot tougher than the three runner race he won at Lingfield he can be competitive at an each way price for Jack Tudor. There is a strong possibility that the race may drop to seven runners with top weight Marsh Wren also down to run at Cheltenham on Friday so if that’s the case hunt around for a firm who pay three places on seven runner contests.

 

FOURTUNEFAVORSDBOLD 1 point each way @ 13/2 bet365 1/5 123

 

 

[black rabbit]

Alaphilippe                                                           2 25 Utx/                  1/40th of a pt ew      66/1

Striking a pose                                                    2 25 Utx/                   1/40th of a pt ew      25/1

Ask Me Early                                                        3 00 Utx/                   1/40th of a pt ew      14/1

Young Dev                                                            3 00 Uxt/                  1/40th of a pt ew       20/1

War Lord                                                               2 45 kem/                1/40th of a pt ew       20/1

Cap Du Nord                                                        3 55 kem/                 1/40th of a pt ew      12/1

 

P/L + 176.60 pts

Edited March 16 by black rabbit

[azzybear]

my boyfriend 11.15 ew france

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Wolverhampton 8.30

OPEN FORCE

[The Equaliser]

I have had 3 x :L15's & Accas on the Daily = 7.50 pts = 12 selections

1.35 Km Beau Balko 3 pts win at 4.1 & 1.40 pts win on Issar D'airy at 3.2 = 7.74 profit if Beau Balko wins to cover L15's and 0.08 profit if Issar D'airy wins to cover Beau Balko stake

Total stakes today = 11.90 Pretty smart eh?

 

[Antonio Margarettii]

2.25 Uttoxeter - elvis mail 33/1 ew 

[fd1972uk]

Few bets today.

Santos Blue win, had One Eye on Vegas mb 2nd, so missed out by a place.

210 irish Hill and took a chance on west balboa

300 iron bridge and Mr incredible

[fd1972uk]

54 minutes ago, Antonio Margarettii said:

2.25 Uttoxeter - elvis mail 33/1 ew 

Had a go on that too, ew 35s, 5 places

[MCLARKE]

MIDLANDS GRAND NATIONAL

A decent rest from the last race is desirable. Those who last ran more than 35 days ago have a record of 8 wins from 70 runs with a profit of 32 points. The remainder have 2 wins from 104 runs with a loss of 35 points.

Horses that carried 10st 2lbs to 10st 10lbs last time have 7 wins from 51 runs with a profit of 83 points.

This leaves 3, MR INCREDIBLE (13/2), AUTONOMOUS CLOUD (11/2) and TRUCKERS LODGE (30/1).

Horses that last ran in races with fields of 16 to 20 runners have 6 wins from 39 runs with a profit of 75 points. This removes MR INCREDIBLE.

Horses with an OR of 135 to 138 have 6 wins from 44 runs with a profit of 69 points.

This leaves TRUCKERS LODGE at 30/1 (4 places).

 

[Nigwilliam]

300 Foxboro 22/1 ew skybet 5pl.

hoping Harry Kimber can get a place.     nope,7th.

Edited March 16 by Nigwilliam

[azzybear]

heritier de sivoler 3.47 

[azzybear]

egbert 3.55

[azzybear]

real terms 4.05

[azzybear]

bolsover bill 4.10

[azzybear]

il pino 4.30