MCLARKE
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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I'll have a look at the trends for the Ayr Gold Cup. Quite a simple one today.
Drawn 1 to 7, 0 from 42.
1st 4 in the forecast betting, 4 from 24, others 3 from 121.
This leaves 2, POPMASTER (15/2) and BIELSA (11/1). 6 places available.
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Gowran Park 3.55
FOREST OF DREAMS 5/1
£20 win BSP
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Flat selection
Newmarket 3.15
TURNPIKE TRIP 3/1
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5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
The reasoning behind this is that they are over bet and I hope that this will make it a profitable strategy
Perhaps they are not overbet purely because of the fact a lot of punters will not back them because of the misconception that odds on represents poor value. I hope that this misconception continues as it means the rest of us can make money,
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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Well nobody makes anyone put money on a horse at such cramped odds
If it wins you make money. One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds.
If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. Longest winning run would have been 13, longest losing run 6.
If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%. Longest winning run would have been 22 and the longest losing run 3.
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16 hours ago, gbettle said:
WTF Eglantine Du Seuil?! 1/12 fav beaten - 3rd!!! - by a combined 48/1 runners ... punters sold down the river:
At those odds you would expect it to lose 1 race out of 13 so not that big a surprise.
It is only the same as a horse winning at 12/1 and we don't express amazement when that happens.
It is very irritating though when you've backed it, @Alastairwon't be happy because it was his nap in his quest to win the most winners competition.
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I must admit that whilst I'm still making money with my selections I struggle with trying to price a race, the "non value" selections seem to do better than the "value" selections.
@richard-westwoodused to contribute a lot on this thread, I hope he is OK.
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CATTERICK 5.15
LIGHTENING COMPANY 6/4
BET365
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12 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I can see the logic of pulled up horses but not so sure about unseated, not sure I'd want to fall off a horse on purpose.
Having said that the AE for unseated horses is a very impressive 1.12. The AE for PU is also good at 1.01 so there could well be mileage in this process.
For unseated some other stats are :-
Chases AE 1.17
Forecast favourite AE 1.20
Novices AE 1.25
DSLR < 15 AE 1.25
Encouragingly last year was the best out of the last 7 with an AE of 1.29.
For pulled up some other stats are :-
Chase AE 1.03
Heavy going AE 1.09
Distance > 25f AE 1.05
Forecast favourite AE 1.04
Conditional jockeys AE 1.07
Female horses AE 1.04
Ireland AE 1.05
Handicaps AE 1.04
December - February AE 1.09
DSLR < 14 AE 1.11
One downside is that last year the AE was 0.92 and 0.95 for the last 4 years.
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If you were feeling that terrible it was probably a good idea to stop.
You are very unlikely to make a living out of betting, if you don't enjoy it then you should probably stop or reduce your stakes to a minimum.
Personally, if I get to the stage where I have made a loss over a year then I will reduce my stakes to the minimum.
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Kempton 4.50
HURRY UP HEDLEY 5/1
£20 win BSP
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AYR 1.00
AZURE BLUE 5/4
BET VICTOR
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Flat selection
Chelmsford 7.00
DISCOVER DUBAI 11/2
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YARMOUTH 1.30
BUOYANT 5/4
BET VICTOR
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14 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
powerful Will Buick/David O'Meara challenge (hehe check out that combo's AE)
Prior to this year it was 0 from 16.
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This calendar
3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:I back them in multiples saturday = 3000/1+ (bopedro would have won if drawn better making it 40,000/1 ish)
Yes she had an excellent day but she did have 8 runners so you would have had to place 219 bets if you were trying to cover all the 3+ accumulators.
Racing Chat- Saturday September 18th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
The silver cup 1st 2 were drawn 2 and 6 so perhaps this trend may not continue this year.
This analysis is more of a test for me, I'm not putting any money down until I've tried a few more and analysed the results.