MCLARKE
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Posts
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Joined
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Last visited
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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CURRAGH 3.05
JEROBOAM 11/10
BET365
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10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Flat selection
Haydock 1.30
KIMNGRACE 6/5
Won. BSP 1.99.
50 / 132, lsp £36.75.
- The Equaliser, peanut peanut and gbettle
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2
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1
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1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:
Don't know if you have any back stats, but have you tried a price cap ? Around 80% winners will be single fig odds, with most of the rest double fig but very few triple fig (100/1 +).
For pulled up horses there have been 2,998 runners at odds greater than 33/1 with only 9 winners and an AE of 0.56. I would set a price cap of 33/1.
At odds of 66/1 or over there has been 1 winner from 1,998 runners so I would certainly avoid these.
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1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said:
I'm following...
The Brigadier
Bang On
gbettle's £20 daily challenge
Richard Westwood's bets in Pricing Your Own Race
Zilzalian's speed ratings.
I'm deeply offended ! lol
- gbettle and Wildgarden
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2
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1 hour ago, Nigwilliam said:
Will you put £300 to win on Mt Leinster today?
If it was a system selection I'd have no problem betting on it.
I'd rather put it on that than any of the 150/1 shots in the same race.
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The discussion was prompted by one of the £20 challenge selections.
- The Equaliser, Nigwilliam, gbettle and 1 other
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4
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York 5.25
MOUNT MARCY 11/4
£20 win BSP
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Flat selection
Haydock 1.30
KIMNGRACE 6/5
- black rabbit, The Equaliser, Bang on and 1 other
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4
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11 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
No, but when you say things like "you won't go far wrong by backing odds on favourites this is clearly not true.
My Best of The Best selections bear testimony to the fact that one will lose money by backing odds on favourites.
I posted this last Saturday.
"One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds. If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%."
So why do you claim my statement is clearly not true?
The small sample you have posted doesn't really prove anything I'm afraid.
- LEE-GRAYS, Valiant Thor and gbettle
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2
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1
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18 minutes ago, Offramp said:
Did anyone see the difference between Bet365 and Skybet at this race?
Sky usually offer rubbish odds and don't offer BOG on a lot of races.
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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Just wait until we get adverse racing conditions; I reckon that's when you will see results go pear shaped
Do you have any data to support this ?
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NEWMARKET 3.35
MASTER OF THE SEAS 13/8
BET VICTOR
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Most winners.
- Wildgarden and Joales
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2
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Listowel 2.50
KOJIN 11/4
£20 win BSP
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Flat selection
Listowel 1.40
BIENVENUE 85/40
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Newmarket 1.00
DAWN OF LIBERATION 2/1
BET365
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
Ok I admit I made a mistake by using the wrong stakes and of course his Lordship was right. Pity he threatened to stop posting if I continued to do so because I would have given him a run for his money. Not scared was he?
I doubt it !
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9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Flat selection
Redcar 3.10
STRAWBERRY JACK 4/6
Won at 4/7.
49 / 130, lsp + £36.78.
- gbettle and Wildgarden
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2
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Yes I was surprised at the price given that the lower drawn horses were also backed.
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Yes you are right, I must admit I don't lay, it's probably a good job if I can't work out the correct stake and liability !
BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - SEPTEMBER 2021
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
As per the rules
You posted
"3.15 York Another Investment 33/1 win only Sky Bet"
Sky Bet is not an eligible bookmaker.