MCLARKE
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Posts
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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Does anybody make any money on USA racing, seems a bit of a lottery to me.
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FAIRYHOUSE 3.30
ADELISA 11/4
BET VICTOR
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Wish I'd backed it, all my other selections lost today.
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39 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Well some of us benevolent guys have to keep the bookies afloat so that PL professionals like yourself can make some dosh
There is a lot of truth in that. Most punters will lose and just a few will win, the bookies will make a profit whatever happens.
- The Equaliser and gbettle
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2
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Hamilton 3.20
DANDY'S MAX 16/1
£20 win BSP
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Flat selection
Hamilton 2.50
CABALLERO 5/2
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Interesting data, the only issue for me is the small sample size.
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37 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
All my betting selections are automated to eradicate any emotion in the choice , so whether its Mon,Wed or Sun makes no difference (boring maybe but its how i like to do things, easier to quantify)
Probably wise. I tend to have 3 serious bets a day out of the many selections my systems throw up.
Whether I put £100 each on 3 selections or £2 each on 150 selections the ROI should be the same in the long term.
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3 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky
I agree, putting it in a bank you will lose money in real terms.
A stocks and shares ISA is another matter, you can pick a world index tracker and probably make on average 5% + per annum without any knowledge of investing. Those with good knowledge can make 10% +. You obviously need the balls to withstand the big falls that are likely but if you start early and put regular amounts into the ISA then it will grow very nicely due to the impact of compound interest (described as the 8th wonder of the world by Albert Einstein).
- The Equaliser and Wildgarden
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25 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
Just the 1 today , about the best of a bad bunch , still a bit of meat in the 2.88 with the odds boost IMO
I have analysed my bets over the last few years and on Sundays I have lost money. This is probably related to the lower quantity of racing on Sunday. As an example my £20 daily challenge today is 20/1.
I may start to have a break on Sundays or restrict myself to just one bet.
- Wildgarden and The Equaliser
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It makes sense, the downside I suppose is that the sample size of any analysis is then reduced.
Again another question, what sample size would you require to have confidence in any given system, I read somewhere that a minimum of 100 winners would be required.
Also, how many years should be analysed, the more years the greater the sample size but the later back you go the less relevant the data may be.
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Yep a bit of a conundrum. Backing horses at these prices is profitable, backing Sam is not.
However his record on these hot favourites over hurdles is good over the last few years with 20 winners from 23 runners with an AE of 1.11 so on balance I would back it.
As usual this prompts a different question, should we treat hurdle and chase races together or separately ?
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- gbettle, Joales and calva decoy
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HAMILTON 1.45
EVOCATIVE SPARK 5/2
WH
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36 minutes ago, Bachelors Hall said:
Cheers MC. Three years old at the start of the season, turning four on New Year.
Probably not strictly juveniles but I have analysed 3/4yo in hurdles races and the main conclusions are.
Forecast favourites have a poor record, AE of 0.96.
DLSR > 26, AE 1.06.
Top 3 in the weights, AE 1.03.
1st last time, AE 0.94.
- gbettle and Bachelors Hall
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6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Flat selection
Newmarket 3.15
TURNPIKE TRIP 3/1
Won. BSP 3.01.
47 / 126, LSP + £36.72.
- Wildgarden and LEE-GRAYS
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20 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
One that's a 3 year old .
But in the Adonis Juvenile hurdle at Kempton the runners were all aged 4.
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As always an excellent write up.
Out of interest, so I can do some analysis, what is the definition of a "juvenile hurdler"?
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44 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
STAKED...20...RETURNED...20.62...PROFIT...0.62PTS (better than a loss ?)
Agreed, I'd rather have a 1/20 winner than a 20/1 loser.
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I think the logic behind this is that trainers are being a bit dodgy so it may be interesting to see how they have performed.
These are the ones that have had more than 10 winners.
On this basis Gordon Elliott is the most trustworthy, who would have thought it !
BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - SEPTEMBER 2021
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
Most winners.
@Alastairlooking to make it 3 winning competitions in a row, very impressive.