MCLARKE
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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16 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Still fine tuning my systems for the winter jumps season but one factor that stands out is the success of 5 year olds in November and December. The AE for them is 1.05.
I have read somewhere that horses reach their peak at 4.5 years, which is equivalent to 5 for UK horses (as they all have the same birthday, 1st January).
It would seem logical then to back them in races where they are the only 5 year old.
Tomorrows selections.
Fontwell 1.40 Sayadam 11/4 Down Royal 2.05 David Garrick 80/1 Fontwell 2.15 Family Business 16/1 Hexham 2.35 Twoshotsoftequila 8/1 Down Royal 2.40 Alice Avril 11/2 Down Royal 3.50 Carnfunnock 9/4 A good start with 3 winners, Sayadam at 11/4, Family Business at 16/1 and Carnfunnock at 9/4 for an 18 points LSP profit for the day.
- BBBC, Villa Chris, LEE-GRAYS and 3 others
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6
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WINCANTON 2.25
HUGOS NEW HORSE 1/4
BET365
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Exeter 4.08
SUFI 18/1
£10 EW SKY 5 places SP
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BET365 TV offer selections
September was a very poor month with just 1 winner from 29 selections and a loss of £1,150
Total now 37 from 314, loss £2,747.50
I will plug on until I have a year's worth of selections
Today's selections
DOWN 2.40 The Greek 13/2 EXET 3.00 Minella Buster 5/1 -
44 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
I guess that needs to be considered alongside how many runners there are at the respective ages? If there were half as many of the older horses than the younger ones that would make the 11% look a lot more impressive than it does at first glance.
Yes, very fair point. It was a bit of a lazy analysis !
To be honest I don't really look at strike rate, I look at profitability based on the AE ratio.
These are.
6yo 1.05
7yo 0.99
8yo 0.98
9yo 0.97
It makes sense to concentrate on the younger horses. It could be that they are better than the older horses. On the other hand it could be that the older horses are over bet because they are more familiar to punters or they have more form to analyse. This might also explain why horses with course or distance wins are overbet, the older the horse the more likely it is to have won over the course or distance before.
- azzybear, harry_rag and The Equaliser
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3
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Odds on selections
Exeter 1.15 Lallygag 8/13 Exeter 2.25 Thyme Hill 4/7 - Nigwilliam, Villa Chris and azzybear
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3
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
I had in mind 8/9 years for chasers but I could have just mis-remembered this stat
Strike rates deteriorate as they get older,
6yo 17%
7yo 14%
8yo 12%
9yo 11%
- azzybear, Villa Chris, The Equaliser and 1 other
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2
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2
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6 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Is that also true for Jump horses? I’d have thought Jump horses reach their peak older than that, but if the stats say otherwise.
My analysis for November / December over the jumps shows that 5 year olds have the best strike rate.
From January to April 6 year olds have the best strike rate. Because a horse has it's birthday on the 1st of January these are the same horses that were 5 in the preceding November / December.
- kensland, Villa Chris and azzybear
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3
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The following players have qualified for the KO cup this month.
Starts Saturday 5th November.
Good luck !
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Still fine tuning my systems for the winter jumps season but one factor that stands out is the success of 5 year olds in November and December. The AE for them is 1.05.
I have read somewhere that horses reach their peak at 4.5 years, which is equivalent to 5 for UK horses (as they all have the same birthday, 1st January).
It would seem logical then to back them in races where they are the only 5 year old.
Tomorrows selections.
Fontwell 1.40 Sayadam 11/4 Down Royal 2.05 David Garrick 80/1 Fontwell 2.15 Family Business 16/1 Hexham 2.35 Twoshotsoftequila 8/1 Down Royal 2.40 Alice Avril 11/2 Down Royal 3.50 Carnfunnock 9/4 -
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EXETER 2.25
THYME HILL 4/9
BET365
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1 minute ago, The Equaliser said:
I will be very surprised if these will make a LSP. Good luck to you for trying. Oddly enough it is not normally the 2nd or 3rd favourite that scuppers the odds on shots but other unexpected horse that does them in. Very tricky
Time will tell. Over the last 9 years they have lost 0.7% at SP so I would hope they will make a small profit at BOG.
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3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Odds on selections
Newbury 2.30
SHES A SAINT 2/5
Ludlow 2.40
BRAVEHEART 10/11
Not a good start !
But I will persevere.
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Odds on selections
Newbury 2.30
SHES A SAINT 2/5
Ludlow 2.40
BRAVEHEART 10/11
- kensland, The Equaliser and azzybear
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2
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1
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1 hour ago, vangovin said:
wrong thread
Apologies, got my days mixed up !
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On 11/1/2022 at 2:00 PM, MCLARKE said:
This trial is just backing them blindly. I will look at a more selective method for this NH season.
I am working with a small sample size here so I will limit myself to just one rule :-
Exclude soft or heavy going. Over the last 9 years those horses running on this going have made a loss of 7.7% whilst those running on better going have made a loss of just 0.7%.
I will wait until the morning of the race before making the selections to ensure the lastest going is used. I will take the best prices available on oddschecker assuming that it is with a bookie that I have an account with.
I will publish my selections in the relevant daily thread. There are potentially 4 running tomorrow.
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CHELMSFORD 4.30
SHADES OF SUMMER 2/5
BET365
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27 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Please amend thread header to say Wednesday; thanks
Well spotted.
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Racing Chat - Saturday 5th November
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Posted
5yo selections