Birchy

@Birchy as Billy says mate seems to be your luck, their are many ways using PL Tips to make money, you just have to be a judge on what is best for you as a backer, You say you lost in December and now in February but had you backed In January you would have made 21.50 pt profit which would have got some of your december losses back, as Billy says its no good switching from 1 system to another you need to make a decision on one system or several smaller ones as a portfolio and run them for at least 3 to 6 months and make sure your bank is sufficient to cover losses, their are plenty of stats info in the forum to help you. 

Soooooo,  I started backing the PL tips in December, which turned out to be the worst month in history.
Then I decided to recoup my losses by backing only the NAPS. 17 bets, 2 winners so far.
I hereby offer my most sincere apologies to you all for jinxing the PL tips and have requested that "Birchy's Luck" be added to the Oxford dictionary, next to "Sod's Law". 
Good luck guys and gals, hope my curse will lift soon. 

Soooooo,  I started backing the PL tips in December, which turned out to be the worst month in history.
Then I decided to recoup my losses by backing only the NAPS. 17 bets, 2 winners so far.
I hereby offer my most sincere apologies to you all for jinxing the PL tips and have requested that "Birchy's Luck" be added to the Oxford dictionary, next to "Sod's Law". 
Good luck guys and gals, hope my curse will lift soon. 

It was second, count yourself lucky!

Honestly, I think it's clear you're just the village idiot here on this forum to cause trouble.

What you say is 90% waffle and of no factual substance. Betting knowledge appears to be lacking, just reciting tales of woe you've read about in the media from some journalist - hardly subject matter experts are they.
Trading is a skill, not some one size fits all system as I previously said, with many variables to consider and learn about. It's a bit like someone walking into gordon ramseys kitchen and going "whats the magic recipe" and him going; 'no, no, no - you need to learn how to asses the heat on the hob, how you want the steak cooked, sides seasoned, laid out on the plate, presented - there is a systematical approach to it' and then Glentoby rocks in and says; "yea that's nice, whats the magic recipe and why haven't we got a 1,000 customers yet? This cooking bullshit is a complete con". Hopefully any of the sane members reading this can make sense of my point.

I back ALL of the tips, including the NAPS and the treble as 3 singles. I haven't tested the NAPS on their own or any other kind of filtering as I thought the tips were collectively profitable based on the results spreadsheet.
At the end of the day, it is our own choice how we use the tips. Win or lose. 
What time is the stripper coming? 

IV = Impact Value
This is if the value is below 1.00 then the selections are running below expectation and a loss is more common, if above then they are running above expectation and should make a profit.
ELLR = Estimated Longest Losing Run
This estimates the longest losing run basec on the current strike rate and updates based on that figure.
Im not a big layer of horses but yes i do lay the odds on sometimes, I dont back all selections as a huge bank would be required i do back thsm using my own filter systems.

@Bubbles180
Forgive my stupidity, but what is IV and ELLR?
As you are a fellow betfair user, have you tried laying  <= 4/1 and backing everything else?

When's the "Click here to subscribe" link coming? 

When's the "Click here to subscribe" link coming? 

Most people bet for fun as they like the thrill of watching their selection win. It's as simple as that - entertainment value.
Betting at a professional level is a completely different approach. Price vs probability is the key, but "value" bets will never be found using public knowledge such as "top weight in 3 mile handicaps", "beaten favourites", "course and distance winners", etc. When bookmakers compile their books, they use every ounce of information available to calculate the probability, from which they calculate their prices. With overrounds in excess of 10%, punters are already out of pocket before they even place a bet. They have to beat the overround just to break even. As long as everyone is using the same information to make a decision, nobody will ever have an edge. The end result will always be the same despite various interpretations.
The bookies DO get the prices wrong occasionally but long term, their overround brings them a profit. It's like the roulette wheel - punters might win short term on a lucky streak, but long term they WILL lose to the house edge.
As they say on the adverts: "when the fun stops - STOP".

Most people bet for fun as they like the thrill of watching their selection win. It's as simple as that - entertainment value.
Betting at a professional level is a completely different approach. Price vs probability is the key, but "value" bets will never be found using public knowledge such as "top weight in 3 mile handicaps", "beaten favourites", "course and distance winners", etc. When bookmakers compile their books, they use every ounce of information available to calculate the probability, from which they calculate their prices. With overrounds in excess of 10%, punters are already out of pocket before they even place a bet. They have to beat the overround just to break even. As long as everyone is using the same information to make a decision, nobody will ever have an edge. The end result will always be the same despite various interpretations.
The bookies DO get the prices wrong occasionally but long term, their overround brings them a profit. It's like the roulette wheel - punters might win short term on a lucky streak, but long term they WILL lose to the house edge.
As they say on the adverts: "when the fun stops - STOP".

Most people bet for fun as they like the thrill of watching their selection win. It's as simple as that - entertainment value.
Betting at a professional level is a completely different approach. Price vs probability is the key, but "value" bets will never be found using public knowledge such as "top weight in 3 mile handicaps", "beaten favourites", "course and distance winners", etc. When bookmakers compile their books, they use every ounce of information available to calculate the probability, from which they calculate their prices. With overrounds in excess of 10%, punters are already out of pocket before they even place a bet. They have to beat the overround just to break even. As long as everyone is using the same information to make a decision, nobody will ever have an edge. The end result will always be the same despite various interpretations.
The bookies DO get the prices wrong occasionally but long term, their overround brings them a profit. It's like the roulette wheel - punters might win short term on a lucky streak, but long term they WILL lose to the house edge.
As they say on the adverts: "when the fun stops - STOP".

Handicap is a race where all horses have to carry a weight based on their ability, so the best horses carry the most weight. The basic idea is to try and level the playing field so that theoretically, all the horses have an equal chance. The handicap system applies to both flat and jumps racing. The race title will always contain the word "handicap" if it's a handicap race.
Jumps races usually contain the word "chase" or "hurdle". Chases are over big fences and hurdles are over small fences. The race distance is a good indicator as well - If all the races are 2 miles are more, then it's highly likely to be a jumps meeting. It is very rare that a race meeting is jumps AND flat on the same day.

Handicap is a race where all horses have to carry a weight based on their ability, so the best horses carry the most weight. The basic idea is to try and level the playing field so that theoretically, all the horses have an equal chance. The handicap system applies to both flat and jumps racing. The race title will always contain the word "handicap" if it's a handicap race.
Jumps races usually contain the word "chase" or "hurdle". Chases are over big fences and hurdles are over small fences. The race distance is a good indicator as well - If all the races are 2 miles are more, then it's highly likely to be a jumps meeting. It is very rare that a race meeting is jumps AND flat on the same day.

Handicap is a race where all horses have to carry a weight based on their ability, so the best horses carry the most weight. The basic idea is to try and level the playing field so that theoretically, all the horses have an equal chance. The handicap system applies to both flat and jumps racing. The race title will always contain the word "handicap" if it's a handicap race.
Jumps races usually contain the word "chase" or "hurdle". Chases are over big fences and hurdles are over small fences. The race distance is a good indicator as well - If all the races are 2 miles are more, then it's highly likely to be a jumps meeting. It is very rare that a race meeting is jumps AND flat on the same day.

Thanks
The Prices on the spreadsheet are the same as the advised prices on the site, not SP so the profit at SP or BOG is higher but dont have exact figure, 

Not sure if you'll get all of that information in one file but I've used the following FREE sources in the past:
http://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/prices/
https://historicdata.betfair.com/
You can also get a lot of history from the Sporting Life by manipulating the url dates, however they are web pages rather than excel sheets, eg:
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2016-01-13
Those go back to 2005, so plenty of races to test against, however you have to click each racecard which is a PITA. Would be a good programming project though to get all of that data into a spreadsheet. 
Also worth considering is http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/

Not sure if you'll get all of that information in one file but I've used the following FREE sources in the past:
http://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/prices/
https://historicdata.betfair.com/
You can also get a lot of history from the Sporting Life by manipulating the url dates, however they are web pages rather than excel sheets, eg:
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2016-01-13
Those go back to 2005, so plenty of races to test against, however you have to click each racecard which is a PITA. Would be a good programming project though to get all of that data into a spreadsheet. 
Also worth considering is http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/

It's certainly tough to feel optimistic at the moment, however the results speak for themselves and I'm hoping we'll see a turnaround before my £500 starting bank is depleted. On the plus side, I am fully aware that it can take a few thousand bets to prove or disprove a betting strategy, so I'm in for the long haul.
Out of interest, does anyone have the P&L stats for the tips at the published prices, ie not including BOG?

It's certainly tough to feel optimistic at the moment, however the results speak for themselves and I'm hoping we'll see a turnaround before my £500 starting bank is depleted. On the plus side, I am fully aware that it can take a few thousand bets to prove or disprove a betting strategy, so I'm in for the long haul.
Out of interest, does anyone have the P&L stats for the tips at the published prices, ie not including BOG?

Unfortunately, you have started at the wrong time. It is also up to you how to bet and choosing what to bet on. It's also up to you to carry on or stop following so maybe you can stop complaining about the loss and having doubts all the time. (Sorry, not meaning to be rude or anything.)
I can tell you though that I started around September. Up to November, I won around £500 just to £1 stakes and 0.5 each way on some odds. For the ten tracks to follow, I bet £5 or 2.5 each way. I usually bet on that day, few hours before the race so the price does differ a lot though. Hence, the difference in profit with others. From December til now, I sometimes increased my stakes to £2, haha maybe bad idea but anyway, it has been a loss of around £140. However, that still makes me in profit of around £360, thanks to BH/G and PL. I'm sure that we will go up high again. We just can't predict correctly even with the right stats sometimes due to weather conditions affecting the ground etc. It's difficult for anyone and everyone, really. Maybe try another few months and see? Or lower the stakes so your loss might be less during this winter period. Good luck whatever you choose to bet on. Hope all your bets go well. 

Over the last 4 months you would have made a good profit backing the each way selections as win only when the odds are 10/1 or above.
From 530 bets the ROI is 18% which is very impressive.
However the profit is slightly higher if you backed them each way.
 

It's not a loss recovery staking plan. Stakes are based on the previous day's P&L only. So for the 8 losing days, the stake remains at £8 per bet until we have a winning day, when we reset to £2. 8 losing days have only happened once in 16 months. This staking plan plays on the fact that we only get 1 or 2 losing days most of the time.
It might benefit from using more than one day's results. eg, check the P&L for 3 days or even 7 days before deciding the stake but I haven't tested this.

That's for all the bets in the PL tips spreadsheet at the top of this page: https://www.punterslounge.com/tips/free-horse-racing-tips
All 16,098 PL tips from August 2016 to November 2017 are included so it's by no means a small sample. I've only been backing the tips for a few weeks to £2 level stakes but have been testing various staking plans to increase profitability. Will be interesting to see how it fairs once the December results are added to the spreadsheet as December is looking like the first losing month since August 2016.
FYI, the totals for the 16,098 bets using "2 and 8" are:

ROI: 11.59%
STAKED: £71,598
P&L: £8,301.28
BETS: 16,098