Charon84

Interesting you see possiblities for the Patriots. I also like them. But we are standing a bit lonely online I guess :p not much hype around the Patriots on other forums.

Getafe DNB @1.96 is a gift at the moment:
Ajax will most likely play with second goalie Varela (Onana is suspended). If that's the case....well....just try to find videomaterial from the Utrecht (Y) - Ajax (Y) match yesterday (7-2, 3 big mistakes Varela). This guy can't be trusted. Ajax willl most likely miss important players like Veltman, Promes and Neres. Maybe Ziyech/Babel isn't also fit, but for now Ajax thinks they will be ready at time. Labyad also injured at this moment, but he isn't "important". In recent matches the injuries of Promes and Ziyech were truly felt. Far less danger from attacks. Getafe at home is very strong. They've lost just 5 in 35 matches (! 2x Barcelona, Basel, Real Madrid and Leganes). Getafe strong performance last week with 3-0 win over Valencia. Recent form also good. Maybe Ajax will get a point here, but it's far more likely they'll will go home with 0 points.

Getafe DNB @1.96 is a gift at the moment:
Ajax will most likely play with second goalie Varela (Onana is suspended). If that's the case....well....just try to find videomaterial from the Utrecht (Y) - Ajax (Y) match yesterday (7-2, 3 big mistakes Varela). This guy can't be trusted. Ajax willl most likely miss important players like Veltman, Promes and Neres. Maybe Ziyech/Babel isn't also fit, but for now Ajax thinks they will be ready at time. Labyad also injured at this moment, but he isn't "important". In recent matches the injuries of Promes and Ziyech were truly felt. Far less danger from attacks. Getafe at home is very strong. They've lost just 5 in 35 matches (! 2x Barcelona, Basel, Real Madrid and Leganes). Getafe strong performance last week with 3-0 win over Valencia. Recent form also good. Maybe Ajax will get a point here, but it's far more likely they'll will go home with 0 points.

Getafe DNB @1.96 is a gift at the moment:
Ajax will most likely play with second goalie Varela (Onana is suspended). If that's the case....well....just try to find videomaterial from the Utrecht (Y) - Ajax (Y) match yesterday (7-2, 3 big mistakes Varela). This guy can't be trusted. Ajax willl most likely miss important players like Veltman, Promes and Neres. Maybe Ziyech/Babel isn't also fit, but for now Ajax thinks they will be ready at time. Labyad also injured at this moment, but he isn't "important". In recent matches the injuries of Promes and Ziyech were truly felt. Far less danger from attacks. Getafe at home is very strong. They've lost just 5 in 35 matches (! 2x Barcelona, Basel, Real Madrid and Leganes). Getafe strong performance last week with 3-0 win over Valencia. Recent form also good. Maybe Ajax will get a point here, but it's far more likely they'll will go home with 0 points.

Tempted with Southampton +2 (@1.61) or +1.75AH (@1.83). Southampton in good form after the break, no important injuries, good scoring averages. I think Liverpool will have a much more difficult game then the WHU match. In the end I suspect them to win, but with a 1 or 2 goal margin (my lean to 1). Will think about this one.
And the Over 2.50 (@1.57), 2.75 (@1.69) and 3.00 (@1.90) look promising too. Liverpool shows vulnerability in every match, but time after time the opponent strikers don't punish it. Ings won't be that guy.

I don't understand. Your text suggests that Liverpool will win, but in the end you bet +1.5AH WHU? Typo? And the odds also don't look right because odds are around 1.95-2.00 for the -/+ 1.5AH. 

WHU - Liverpool Under 3.00 @2.02 sounds good to me. I simply don't expect many goals here.
WHU will start defensively and try to punish mistakes from defensive side Liverpool. But I really doubt they are capable of putting the pressure on Liverpool in a way they'll force Liverpool to make those mistakes. And even then they'll still have to punish them for making those mistakes and that's not guaranteed with those strikers. 1.17 goals Average in PL this season is all the prove you need (while Liverpool concedes 0.65 Average in PL this season). So goals WHU? Probably 0, mabye 1.
Liverpool on the other hand will score some goals. But two important factors tell me that it won't be more then 2 or 3. Mane is out (11 goals, 20%) and Liverpool will meet next team, Southampton (better team then WHU), within 3 days from this match. So when there is a 0-2 lead, they won't do anything else then speed down the match and sit out.
Most likely outcome 0-2 and maybe 0-3. For that reason I didn't take Over 2.50.

I'm relieved I didn't touch this match in the end   (with the main reasoning that in Cup matches everything is possible and we never can't be sure with B-team players)....
In Over/Under market I wanted to go for Under 3.00. That wouldn't work out as well.

Liverpool already 1.47 for FA Cup. I know they will put in some  'B'-players but even then...they are playing against relegation candidate League One who certainly isn't in form. -1AH @1.77...very tempting.
Wouldn't touch the Over 2.50 @1.68 though. If Pool takes 0-2 lead, we can't be sure they score the third goal.
Will wait for some news who plays.

Changed my mind too Over 2.50 @1.97. Wolves are scoring most of the time at home and Liverpool, eventhough they didn't concede in last 7 premier league matches, still looks vulnerable at times. Combined with fact that Liverpool looked tired last 15 minutes in Devils game, I think goals are coming in from Wolves side. And if Liverpool is a little more efficient they can also easily score 2 goals. 1-2 or 2-2 most likely outcomes.

I hope odds on Devils (+AH) rise. At the moment they are a bit short imo.

Odds on Tottenham - Liverpool for Under 3.00 are 1.90 at my bookie. I think it's a good bet:
Tottenham has many injuries and one of them is Kane (11 goals). Also, but far less important, Ndombele and Sissoko are out (both 2 goals). Liverpool also has some less important missings, but still they are missings; Liverpool hasn't allowed a goal in 9 out of 10 recent matches; I expect Mourinho to use a (very) defensive approach against Liverpool (as he normally does against stronger opponents, but surely if a key-striker is missing); If Tottenham takes the lead I expect a even more defensive approach. If Liverpool takes the lead maybe they will take the foot of the gaspedal, because next week Manchester United awaits. All-in-all I don't see many goals coming in. Why not Under 2.50? Well the possibility margin isn't huge as 1-2 / 0-3 (and even 1-3 [I think a Tottenham win is out of the question]) are also possible outcomes under these circumstances. I don't want to take that risk either and 1.90 is absolutely good enough for me.

Odds on Tottenham - Liverpool for Under 3.00 are 1.90 at my bookie. I think it's a good bet:
Tottenham has many injuries and one of them is Kane (11 goals). Also, but far less important, Ndombele and Sissoko are out (both 2 goals). Liverpool also has some less important missings, but still they are missings; Liverpool hasn't allowed a goal in 9 out of 10 recent matches; I expect Mourinho to use a (very) defensive approach against Liverpool (as he normally does against stronger opponents, but surely if a key-striker is missing); If Tottenham takes the lead I expect a even more defensive approach. If Liverpool takes the lead maybe they will take the foot of the gaspedal, because next week Manchester United awaits. All-in-all I don't see many goals coming in. Why not Under 2.50? Well the possibility margin isn't huge as 1-2 / 0-3 (and even 1-3 [I think a Tottenham win is out of the question]) are also possible outcomes under these circumstances. I don't want to take that risk either and 1.90 is absolutely good enough for me.

Odds on Tottenham - Liverpool for Under 3.00 are 1.90 at my bookie. I think it's a good bet:
Tottenham has many injuries and one of them is Kane (11 goals). Also, but far less important, Ndombele and Sissoko are out (both 2 goals). Liverpool also has some less important missings, but still they are missings; Liverpool hasn't allowed a goal in 9 out of 10 recent matches; I expect Mourinho to use a (very) defensive approach against Liverpool (as he normally does against stronger opponents, but surely if a key-striker is missing); If Tottenham takes the lead I expect a even more defensive approach. If Liverpool takes the lead maybe they will take the foot of the gaspedal, because next week Manchester United awaits. All-in-all I don't see many goals coming in. Why not Under 2.50? Well the possibility margin isn't huge as 1-2 / 0-3 (and even 1-3 [I think a Tottenham win is out of the question]) are also possible outcomes under these circumstances. I don't want to take that risk either and 1.90 is absolutely good enough for me.

Odds on Tottenham - Liverpool for Under 3.00 are 1.90 at my bookie. I think it's a good bet:
Tottenham has many injuries and one of them is Kane (11 goals). Also, but far less important, Ndombele and Sissoko are out (both 2 goals). Liverpool also has some less important missings, but still they are missings; Liverpool hasn't allowed a goal in 9 out of 10 recent matches; I expect Mourinho to use a (very) defensive approach against Liverpool (as he normally does against stronger opponents, but surely if a key-striker is missing); If Tottenham takes the lead I expect a even more defensive approach. If Liverpool takes the lead maybe they will take the foot of the gaspedal, because next week Manchester United awaits. All-in-all I don't see many goals coming in. Why not Under 2.50? Well the possibility margin isn't huge as 1-2 / 0-3 (and even 1-3 [I think a Tottenham win is out of the question]) are also possible outcomes under these circumstances. I don't want to take that risk either and 1.90 is absolutely good enough for me.

Sturm Graz +1.25AH @2.16 (and still rising) is good value bet in my opinion. I don't see why Ajax is seen as a big/huge favorite here. The friendlies, even with strong(est) line-ups, didn't show anything promising. Lack of creativity. First 'real' match of the season and Ajax is simply not ready.
Sturm Graz on the other hand had a decent prep-campaign (not real tough opponents) and will try to get a result here. Draw is enough. I expect them to park the bus and I don't see Ajax getting trough with more than +1 goal (if they get trough at all).

I want to focus on Premier League (teams), AH bets, this season. For the first round I really think there are a lot of games to stay away from.
Arsenal - Leicester: Arsenal -1.25AH @1.85 in the opening match of the season against Leicester doesn't look good to me. In my opinion it can go a lot of ways. There is no value on Leicester for the same reason. Maybe if Mahrez will be sold, I'm more declined to bet Arsenal, but even then I find -1.25AH too much. Arsenal isn't the most consistent team for betting purposes IMO.
Watford - Liverpool: Liverpool -0.75AH @1.75...neh....first match of season, away, how do new players perform...too much questions for a good bet at those odds. I think odds are right.
Chelsea - Burnley: Chelsea -1.75AH @1.77 . Expect Chelsea to fire up from the beginning, but is that worth 2+ goals win against Burnley in first match @1.77? Questionable. If odds rise towards @2.00 I will reconsider, but I guess that won't happen.
Palace - Huddersfield: really don't have a clue about what to expect in this stage of the season...so I don't do anything here. Though I fancy De Boer as coach so I'll closely watch them in forthcoming matches.
Everton - Stoke: my second bet this season (first bet is Everton -2.00AH @1.72 against Ruzomberok in EL). Everton did really well in transfer market with improvements in every line, despite loss of Lukaku and Deulofeu. I think Everton can repeat the positive 2016/2017 season and maybe will be the suprise of the season. Stoke on the other hand lost in quality, while they aren't that strong at the first place. Together with the fact that Everton plays home and already played 2 'real' games at that point, I think -0.75AH @1.89 is really good value). Everton can win by a 1-2 goal margin.
Southampton - Swansea: same as Palace comment.
WBA - Bournemouth: same as Palace comment.
Brighton - Man. City: City -1.25AH @1.84 looks good to me already, but maybe odds will rise a little bit. Brighton just promoted, which means they are to be expected fighting against relegation. City on the other hand will compete for champions. Guns will blaze directly because quality difference is huge. I think line will change to -1.50AH towards KO.
Newcastle - Tottenham: how will Tottenham fare (as people already posted in this thread)? That's a question that will be answered in the first matches of the season. Opening against Newcastle away won't be easy for them so I'm looking at Newcastle right now. But still Newcastle +0.75AH @1.85 is weak. I want them higher before I even start to think about betting that line.
Man. Utd. - West Ham: last 2 seasons Man Utd didn't do very well. The team struggled. They have improved, but how does that effect the play? I want to watch how it will deploy, so don't bet on them now. West Ham will be fighting relegation I think, but the line, +1.50AH @2.03 holds no value. Man Utd can easily draw, win by 1 goal margin or trash West Ham.
So for now only Everton -0.75AH @1.89 and maybe City -1.25AH @1.84.

Can't help it as a Dutchmen so I have to bet on Eredivisie too
For this round I fancy AZ +1.50 @1.90 against PSV real hard. PSV lost several good players (Propper, Moreno, Guardado, Willems) and maybe others are going as well, but probably not before the season opener. The effect of these losses? Well I simply refer to the Osijek matches (0-1 and 1-0 losses). No creativity, problems scoring goals (as was the problem in prep matches). Against AZ, who did well to keep the team in tact, in the season opener I think the handicap is too big. I forsee a draw here or a narrow loss for AZ, but I can't imagine they will loose with 2+ goals. Don't forget that the preparation of AZ was decent/good (wins against Udinese, Brugge, Malaga and Cambuur / loss against Panathinaikos).
I also fancy Ajax -1 @1.70 against Heracles. I did see a good Ajax for moments against both Nice mathces. Strong play, pressure, threats, chances etc. Furthermore most of the preparation opponents were decent/good teams. Weder Bremen (L), Genk (D), PAOK (W), Lyon (L), Hull (D). Ajax is definately ready for this first match (although they still want re-inforcements in defending department, which they are working on due the fact they signed a defender today). Heracles on the other hand is definately not ready for this match up. All 'serious' matches in preparation were lost (Viktoria Koln [Regionalliga], Granada, Emmen), while the team had a dramatic performance against Emmen. Ajax shall not slip 3 points here. I expect them to win easy, but because of the fact it's (1) a season opener, (2) away, (3) still dealing with the news around Nouri I can't take the -1.25+ AH available.
This is all for this round.

I want to focus on Premier League (teams), AH bets, this season. For the first round I really think there are a lot of games to stay away from.
Arsenal - Leicester: Arsenal -1.25AH @1.85 in the opening match of the season against Leicester doesn't look good to me. In my opinion it can go a lot of ways. There is no value on Leicester for the same reason. Maybe if Mahrez will be sold, I'm more declined to bet Arsenal, but even then I find -1.25AH too much. Arsenal isn't the most consistent team for betting purposes IMO.
Watford - Liverpool: Liverpool -0.75AH @1.75...neh....first match of season, away, how do new players perform...too much questions for a good bet at those odds. I think odds are right.
Chelsea - Burnley: Chelsea -1.75AH @1.77 . Expect Chelsea to fire up from the beginning, but is that worth 2+ goals win against Burnley in first match @1.77? Questionable. If odds rise towards @2.00 I will reconsider, but I guess that won't happen.
Palace - Huddersfield: really don't have a clue about what to expect in this stage of the season...so I don't do anything here. Though I fancy De Boer as coach so I'll closely watch them in forthcoming matches.
Everton - Stoke: my second bet this season (first bet is Everton -2.00AH @1.72 against Ruzomberok in EL). Everton did really well in transfer market with improvements in every line, despite loss of Lukaku and Deulofeu. I think Everton can repeat the positive 2016/2017 season and maybe will be the suprise of the season. Stoke on the other hand lost in quality, while they aren't that strong at the first place. Together with the fact that Everton plays home and already played 2 'real' games at that point, I think -0.75AH @1.89 is really good value). Everton can win by a 1-2 goal margin.
Southampton - Swansea: same as Palace comment.
WBA - Bournemouth: same as Palace comment.
Brighton - Man. City: City -1.25AH @1.84 looks good to me already, but maybe odds will rise a little bit. Brighton just promoted, which means they are to be expected fighting against relegation. City on the other hand will compete for champions. Guns will blaze directly because quality difference is huge. I think line will change to -1.50AH towards KO.
Newcastle - Tottenham: how will Tottenham fare (as people already posted in this thread)? That's a question that will be answered in the first matches of the season. Opening against Newcastle away won't be easy for them so I'm looking at Newcastle right now. But still Newcastle +0.75AH @1.85 is weak. I want them higher before I even start to think about betting that line.
Man. Utd. - West Ham: last 2 seasons Man Utd didn't do very well. The team struggled. They have improved, but how does that effect the play? I want to watch how it will deploy, so don't bet on them now. West Ham will be fighting relegation I think, but the line, +1.50AH @2.03 holds no value. Man Utd can easily draw, win by 1 goal margin or trash West Ham.
So for now only Everton -0.75AH @1.89 and maybe City -1.25AH @1.84.