Charon84

I have been back to the drawing board this summer and made up a new betting model (this time based on linear regression). It's supposed to point out good dogs with a  handicap. Hope this one is more promising then last one 😁 (though I already loved the process).
The model predicts a Brentford +1 @1.98 as a good bet this round. So that one I take. No other bets.

I have been back to the drawing board this summer and made up a new betting model (this time based on linear regression). It's supposed to point out good dogs with a  handicap. Hope this one is more promising then last one 😁 (though I already loved the process).
The model predicts a Brentford +1 @1.98 as a good bet this round. So that one I take. No other bets.

@StefanBB wrong topic ?

Last week my model preformed well (paper chase) with +2.13u. For this week it points out Chelsea and Brentford. Going to look at situational angles, but I guess Brentford will remain solely. 

My model gives Fulham good edge so I take Fulham win (0.5u) @4.10 and Draw (0.5u) @3.60.

Already bet Netherlands -0.5 @1.83:
Betting public is too happy about performance Ecuador and too disappointed in performance Netherlands but you can't compare those matches at all (it's a WC opening game with lot of tension and stress impacting game performance, Qatar is way below Senegal). Expect the Netherlands to grow into the WC with Van Gaal as top-coach fine-tuning the team. Van Gaal is strategical above Alfaro. Expect gready and important Memphis to play (instead of totally ineffective Jansen) and also Timber to play (instead of shaky De Ligt) with (in my opinion) better offensive skills. Don't let 2 goals Ecuador (against Qatar) fool you because Ecuador has trouble scoring goals. Before Qatar match they only scored 7 in 11 matches and never more than 1 per game (last 3 matches no goals) where I only count 3 'strong teams' and a lot of weak teams. The Dutch? 29 in 11 matches and only 2 matches with 1 goal (rest 2+) where I count 3 'strong teams' and a whole bunch of teams who are equal or slightly better than Ecuador. Maybe Valencia is out for Ecuador.

I know I'm talking 'afterwards', but Noppert is the best decision Van Gaal made so far. He's the best goalie at the moment even if he's inexperienced. I had Netherlands -0.75 @1.95 btw so I'm happy with the result! Though a 0-1 or 0-0/1-1 was a more realistic result based on performance.

I've bought the book @Valiant Thor you mentioned. I think this suits well. Thanks for the tip!

I've bought the book @Valiant Thor you mentioned. I think this suits well. Thanks for the tip!

Going to order the book. Read same type of book for betting on horses while ago...good stuff.
I'm doing fine at sportsbetting for last 10 years, but everything that improves it I'm prepared to do. Additionally; I like messing around with data and Excel.

How to calculate the number of goals I expect? Home strength (Home attack rating * Away defense rating * Home goals average)+ Away strength (Away attack rating * Home defense rating * Away goals average)? That results in the following (first number my calculations, second spread middle). Many are way off (these calculations are based on data this season only).
4,432366   3.2   3,927636   2.75   1,659885   2.6   2,659768   2.4   2,291417   2.3   1,654608   2.2   2,830698   3.25   3,655371   2.6   3,537423   3.05   2,748091   2.85
 

@harry_rag Thanks.
1. I thought I was using recent data with just two seasons (lol). What is the name of the book you refer too?
2. I certainly will create a system with an edge added. Just to be accounting for some variance.
3a. Why do you think spread prices are more accurate? Didn't know about spread prices before so I read some information about it, but still don't understand how this wil blend in the mix?
3b. So with fixed odds you mean something like this; Leicester (see example above) Bet365 odds 1,57 and True Odds 1,37 means 1,47 odds? How does that help out? When it's 'value' in the first place, it will also be 'value' after using this method (but less).
3c. Where do you get good xG data? Understat? FootyStats? Something else?
I'm very grateful for helping me on my way!

@harry_ragHave done some trying with Excel. Just the 'normal' calculations and Poisson distribution based on goals Home and Away (data is this season and last two). Over/Under 2.5 are odds from Bet365 and TOO/TOU2.5 are true odds based on output Excel.
1.How do you identify a potential good betting spot (solely based on this output) when you also have to account for the overround? Difference between the Bet365 and True Odds pair is around 5% juice.
2. Do I understand it correctly that "shots on target" can also contribute to the "Home Attacking"-ratings (and thus contributes to the Poisson distribution)? Let say Arsenal has average 5 shots on target per match and league average is 4 then Shots on Target-rating is 1.25. If I say this contributes 20% to Home Attack-rating can I take 20% of this value (0.25) plus 80% of Goal-rating 1.10 (output Excel) (0.88) for a total Home Attack-rating of 1.13? I wonder because Poisson goal distribution would then be partly based on shots on targets and actual goals instead of actual goals only.
 
 
    Over 2.5 Under 2.5 TOO2.5 TOU2.5 2 Leicester Leeds 1,57 2,37 1,37 4,63 3 Aston Villa Southampton 1,72 2,10 1,57 2,87 4 Burnley Chelsea 1,90 1,90 2,23 1,84 5 Newcastle Brighton 2,20 1,66 2,46 1,69 6 Norwich Brentford 2,20 1,66 2,07 1,96 7 Wolves Crystal Palace 2,30 1,61 2,69 1,60 8 Liverpool West Ham 1,44 2,75 1,78 2,41 9 Watford Arsenal 1,90 1,90 1,92 2,15 10 Man City Man United 1,57 2,37 1,86 2,23 11 Tottenham Everton 1,80 2,00 1,96 2,10

Don't onderstand the critical part "mashing" (lol). I'm not a Excel wonder or statician.

Going with the Ravens -3. Chargers march ends today. Bad matchup for Chargers.

I'm continuing with my "follow the money" system. I runned that system along with some other systems the first weeks, but this system is the only working system for now. I use sites to get a decent feel about the cash/ticket split. I.e. in week 3 Bengals (+3.0) had 30% of bets (tickets) against Steelers, but that generated 70% of cash just before kickoff. In week 4 WFT (-1.5) had 55% of bets (tickets) against Falcons, but that generated 86% of cash just before kickoff. With that info I'm going to analyze the game further. Why is the 'big money' on them? Do I agree? So far the system runs 4-0. 

I'm continuing with my "follow the money" system. I runned that system along with some other systems the first weeks, but this system is the only working system for now. I use sites to get a decent feel about the cash/ticket split. I.e. in week 3 Bengals (+3.0) had 30% of bets (tickets) against Steelers, but that generated 70% of cash just before kickoff. In week 4 WFT (-1.5) had 55% of bets (tickets) against Falcons, but that generated 86% of cash just before kickoff. With that info I'm going to analyze the game further. Why is the 'big money' on them? Do I agree? So far the system runs 4-0. 

I did know that stat, but I simply ignored it cuz in my opinion trend-stats are bullshit. Different teams at that time, different situation and standings and it's just history. Just like roulette. If the ball lands 5 times on 0, doesn't change the probability the 6th time.

Have to touch the Rams -3.5 @1.94. Too tempting (and a little bit bias from my side). 

I took WFT -3.0 @1.91. I just don't see Giants winning. WFT better on both sides. 

Not yet  it's only the matches that qualify spread wise. But with the change of spread all matches qualify except Browns - Texans, Buccs - Falcons and Packers - Lions.
For tomorrow I have a strong lean towards WFT. I know it's Heinicke as QB and he isn't great, but he fits the system. Giants QB Jones will have big trouble with pass rush / D-line WFT. It will cause some interceptions, fumbles or inaccurate passing. WFT should win with touchdown or more.

Not yet  it's only the matches that qualify spread wise. But with the change of spread all matches qualify except Browns - Texans, Buccs - Falcons and Packers - Lions.
For tomorrow I have a strong lean towards WFT. I know it's Heinicke as QB and he isn't great, but he fits the system. Giants QB Jones will have big trouble with pass rush / D-line WFT. It will cause some interceptions, fumbles or inaccurate passing. WFT should win with touchdown or more.

I've changed my approach. Instead of focusing on +3 dogs I focused on 3.0 or less favorites. History is telling us that small favs are winning significant more. So I've hedged Raiders. Yesterday I only had one bet (Broncos -2.5 at Giants, win) and my plan is to bet 1-2 matches a week maximum.

I use PFF stats for all kind of reasons. But not for Fantasy, but they from my understanding they have good Fantasy info.

I've discarded Browns, Colts and Texans as viable underdog bets. Too many questionmarks. WFT and NYG still remain as do the Steelers and Cardinals.
I'm still deciding how to play this season. I normally traded on Betfair trough the season to end with profit in NFL SuperBowl Winner market...but unfortunately they've banned players from my country recently. So I have to adapt. Biggest problem is time. I can't follow 32 teams for over 20 weeks. My options:
1. Pick 2-3 teams and only bet on matches were these teams are involved.
2. Set a standard which narrows down the options every week (i.e. only bet Home dogs with line above +3.0). On thuesday I know which matches qualify for the next weekend and I can focus on those matches only.
What choice would you make and why? Or do you have an alternative?