NFL Week 1

[PercyP]

After a profitable 2020/21 I am really looking forward to this season. There are always a lot of uncertainties in week one, but with crowds allowed back, home advantage could be a deciding factor.

With all the upgrades made by the Patriots I would be surprised to see Miami go into Foxborough and beat the Pats in front of their home crowd.

(1) New England Patriots -2.5 against the spread @ 5/6

The LA Rams have high expectations for this season and will want to start with a confident display at their new SoFi stadium. Matt Stafford will be key.

(2) LA Rams -7.5 @ 20/21

The jets have a new coach, quarterback and defence, but the team will not improve overnight. The Panthers have home advantage and will have key player Christian McCaffrey back.

(3) Panthers -5 @ 10/11

Delvin Cook is capable of winning any game on his own. With the risks associated with returning quarter back Joe Burrow, I think the Vikings will be too strong.

(4) Vikings -3 @ 10/13

The 49 Ers were in the Super Bowl two years ago and suffered from many injuries last year.  Back to full fitness the 49 Ers should be too good against a Detroit team with limited talent which was ranked 32nd in defence last year.

(5) 49 Ers - 7.5 @ 20/21

The opening bet is a  1 point Canadian plus a a 4 point roll up, total staked 30 points staked. All prices Bet365.

[Charon84]

The stupid part of these bets....we all know one of them will be one big disaster...but which one?

All bets should be winners, but most question marks are with Panthers IMO. 49ers is best bet I think.

I'm also eyeing Seahawks -2.5 @Colts. 

Do you have any standout dogs that can win week 1? Steelers, Cardinals, Browns?

[thfc]

Packers -4 (10/11 with Hills) looks good to me.  The Saints look likely to regress this season with Brees retiring, and this game is being played in Jacksonville (because of the hurricane).  This is not a real Saints home game, and as they are normally one of the most intimidating home crowds is another positive in favour of the Packers.  

[PercyP]

Hi Charon84

Week 1 of the nfl season will always throw up some surprises. Hopefully, not against the teams I have chosen. I considered Washington +1, NYG +2.5, Texans +3, Browns +6 and Colts +2.5 as outsiders who could cause an upset. Note these are my opinions only, I’m no expert.

[Charon84]

I've discarded Browns, Colts and Texans as viable underdog bets. Too many questionmarks. WFT and NYG still remain as do the Steelers and Cardinals.

I'm still deciding how to play this season. I normally traded on Betfair trough the season to end with profit in NFL SuperBowl Winner market...but unfortunately they've banned players from my country recently. So I have to adapt. Biggest problem is time. I can't follow 32 teams for over 20 weeks. My options:

1. Pick 2-3 teams and only bet on matches were these teams are involved.

2. Set a standard which narrows down the options every week (i.e. only bet Home dogs with line above +3.0). On thuesday I know which matches qualify for the next weekend and I can focus on those matches only.

What choice would you make and why? Or do you have an alternative?

[harry_rag]

Dallas at Tampa Bay: 25 points on Evans to score a TD at evens and 12.5 points on Gronkowski to score a TD at 4/1, both with Hills.

Evans is a reasonable enough even money shot who I wouldn't want to lay at much bigger. I probably wouldn't be backing him but for a decent "new season" offer from Hills; a matched bet for my 1st bet on the weekend's games. The chance to back 2 decent even money shots for the price of 1 appeals as a value proposition.

The price on Gronkowski is the "enhanced odds" category and is quite a leap from the best available 13/5. Anything up to 3/1 makes no real appeal but I think he's worth a bet at such a standout price.

[harry_rag]

On 9/7/2021 at 2:35 PM, Charon84 said:

What choice would you make and why? Or do you have an alternative?

I can't really give much guidance about betting on this sport (I'm essentially an enthusiastic ignoramus when it comes to NFL) but I love having a crack at the TD scorer market trying to utilise my experience from "soccer" and both codes of rugby. I'd go for your 2nd option, something fluid that you can focus on rather than a set group of teams.

[harry_rag]

Do any of you have a site that you prefer for stats etc? I'm particularly interested in player projections, i.e. projected TDs. 

I've always tended to use Fantasy Pros but I've also checked out CBS this week as some of the projections on FP looked a bit off with regard to available prices (they had Amari Cooper in for a high looking 0.6 TD v 0.4 with CBS).

I'm after any opinion on the best source for player projections. Ideally I'd like an extra decimal place as the gap between 0.6 and 0.7 makes a huge difference to the probability.

[Charon84]

I use PFF stats for all kind of reasons. But not for Fantasy, but they from my understanding they have good Fantasy info.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Charon84

[harry_rag]

22 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Dallas at Tampa Bay: 25 points on Evans to score a TD at evens and 12.5 points on Gronkowski to score a TD at 4/1, both with Hills.

1 from 2 so far with the Gronkowski bet winning. 25 points up and with the 25 point matched free bet still to use.

[Charon84]

After long debates with myself I've pulled the trigger on Raiders +4. Already had a lean that way. Now Edwards and Peters are also out I'm far more confident. Ravens having injury trouble on both sides of the ball, Raiders strong attack and improved defense (new DC who stopped Lamar once in 2019), home support in new stadium Raiders. Enough ingrediënts for a straight upset or cover.

No other bets this weekend. No home +3 dog qualifies in my opinion.

Edited September 11, 2021 by Charon84

[ipswich45]

done myself an acca for tomorrow for a bit of fun

Falcons to beat Eagles and over 41.5 points
Bills to beat Steelers
Panthers to beat Jets and over 38.5 points
Vikings to beat Bengals
49ers to beat Lions
Jaguars to beat Texans and over 40.5 points
Seahawks to beat Cotls
Titans to beat Cardinals and over 46.5 points
Washington v Chargers  over 44.5 points
Chiefs to beat Browns
Patriots to beat Dolphins over 36.5 points
Packers to beat Saints
Giants v Broncos  over 41.5 points

ill be watching Red Zone on sky sports 

Edited September 11, 2021 by ipswich45

[PercyP]

Wow, trying to win big Ipswich. They all look possible.

[harry_rag]

Pittsburgh at Buffalo: 12 points on Davis to score a TD at 9/2 with Hills and 20 points on Johnson to score a TD at 5/2 with PP

There was a lot of chaff to sort through for this game, hopefully I've managed to find some wheat!

Moss out which has led to Singletary shortening considerably. I saw the news in time to save me from backing the former but not in time to get the decent prices about the latter,

[harry_rag]

LA Chargers at Washington: 25 points (free bet) on Gibson to score a TD at evens with Hills

Flagging a bit now but had a look round the "obvious" scorers to find a decent looking even money shot to used the free bet previously mentioned. I've alighted on this one, just hoping he carries on where he left off after 11 in 14 appearances last season.

[ipswich45]

2 hours ago, PercyP said:

Wow, trying to win big Ipswich. They all look possible.

Titans really screwing me over currently in the early window

[harry_rag]

Cleveland at Kansas: 25 points on Landry to score a TD at 2/1 Betway and 8 on Peoples-Jones at 15/2 Lads

Prices lol ok now that Beckham has been ruled out.

[harry_rag]

19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Pittsburgh at Buffalo: 12 points on Davis to score a TD at 9/2 with Hills and 20 points on Johnson to score a TD at 5/2 with PP  

 

18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

LA Chargers at Washington: 25 points (free bet) on Gibson to score a TD at evens with Hills 

 

15 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Cleveland at Kansas: 25 points on Landry to score a TD at 2/1 Betway and 8 on Peoples-Jones at 15/2 Lads  

4 from 7 so far in week 1 for a 171 point profit.

[harry_rag]

Baltimore at Las Vegas: 20 points on Drake to score a TD at 5/2 with Sky Bet

Still that price in a couple of places but shortening on the back of the news about Jacobs being doubtful due to illness. Worth taking while it lasts I think.

Got my eye on another couple of potential bets.

[PercyP]

On 9/4/2021 at 5:58 PM, PercyP said:

After a profitable 2020/21 I am really looking forward to this season. There are always a lot of uncertainties in week one, but with crowds allowed back, home advantage could be a deciding factor.

With all the upgrades made by the Patriots I would be surprised to see Miami go into Foxborough and beat the Pats in front of their home crowd.

(1) New England Patriots -2.5 against the spread @ 5/6

The LA Rams have high expectations for this season and will want to start with a confident display at their new SoFi stadium. Matt Stafford will be key.

(2) LA Rams -7.5 @ 20/21

The jets have a new coach, quarterback and defence, but the team will not improve overnight. The Panthers have home advantage and will have key player Christian McCaffrey back.

(3) Panthers -5 @ 10/11

Delvin Cook is capable of winning any game on his own. With the risks associated with returning quarter back Joe Burrow, I think the Vikings will be too strong.

(4) Vikings -3 @ 10/13

The 49 Ers were in the Super Bowl two years ago and suffered from many injuries last year.  Back to full fitness the 49 Ers should be too good against a Detroit team with limited talent which was ranked 32nd in defence last year.

(5) 49 Ers - 7.5 @ 20/21

The opening bet is a  1 point Canadian plus a a 4 point roll up, total staked 30 points staked. All prices Bet365.

Slightly disappointed  ATS Won 2 Push 1 Lost 2 Returned 11.53 for a loss of 18.47 (YTD -18.47)

The LA Rams showed their Super Bowl potential easy win 34-14 over the bears. WIN

The 49ERs led 38-10 in the fourth quarter so the final result of 41-33 was a surprise. WIN

The panthers did just enough to beat the Jets, but a last minute touchdown by the Jets meant the Panthers won 19-14 by 5. DRAW

The Vikings (did not play their best) and did well to take the game to overtime coming back from a 21-17 deficit. However a fumble gave possession to the Bengals who kicked a field goal to win 27-24. LOSS

Another fumble late in the game meant the Dolphins held on to win 17-16 against the Patriots. LOSS

 

 

 

[PercyP]

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

 

 

4 from 7 so far in week 1 for a 171 point profit.

Great Tipping Harry.

[harry_rag]

47 minutes ago, PercyP said:

Great Tipping Harry.

Cheers. Nice to start with a good week rather than one (as sometimes happens) where I can't buy a winner.

Should say I didn't make a profit over the whole of last season so I'm hoping to improve this season. I'm trying a slightly different approach and focusing on a smaller number of games.

[Charon84]

On 9/11/2021 at 8:58 AM, Charon84 said:

After long debates with myself I've pulled the trigger on Raiders +4. Already had a lean that way. Now Edwards and Peters are also out I'm far more confident. Ravens having injury trouble on both sides of the ball, Raiders strong attack and improved defense (new DC who stopped Lamar once in 2019), home support in new stadium Raiders. Enough ingrediënts for a straight upset or cover.

No other bets this weekend. No home +3 dog qualifies in my opinion.

I've changed my approach. Instead of focusing on +3 dogs I focused on 3.0 or less favorites. History is telling us that small favs are winning significant more. So I've hedged Raiders. Yesterday I only had one bet (Broncos -2.5 at Giants, win) and my plan is to bet 1-2 matches a week maximum.

[harry_rag]

4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Got my eye on another couple of potential bets.

Matched for 20 points on Brown at 3.4 on BF and had 25 points on Williams at 17/10 with PP.

[harry_rag]

20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Baltimore at Las Vegas: 20 points on Drake to score a TD at 5/2 with Sky Bet 

Still that price in a couple of places but shortening on the back of the news about Jacobs being doubtful due to illness. Well enough to score a couple of TD! 

 

16 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Matched for 20 points on Brown at 3.4 on BF and had 25 points on Williams at 17/10 with PP.  

6 from 10 in week 1 for a 240.54 point profit with an ROI of 143.61%.

I think it's odds on that I may have had my most profitable week of the season already so I guess it's all down hill from here! 

I would've made it 50/50 at best that I'd show a profit over the whole season and, whilst it's still by no means guaranteed, it's nice to get off to a decent start. See you in week 2!