LePapo

Thanks Czech, had totally forgotten Nishikori tends to struggle in these hot conditions maybe thats why his record here is not the greatest. My bookie offers just 2.40 on him to win so no value to me even if he's got an easy draw IMO. I'll wait the update with the qualifiers but if nothing changes I'll be on Sock(17), Tsonga(5), Isner(30) and maybe Thiem with the intention to lay both americans if they go deep.
Regarding first round matches, my only play will be Schwartzman to beat Sousa. This is on hard yes, but really slow and hot conditions. Stats on hard in the last 52 weeks favour Schwartzman slightly as he holds his serve 75.6% and breaks 28.7% which makes a total of 104.3 while Sousa holds 74.6% and breaks 24.9% making a total of 99.5. Purely based on this, its the argentinian who should have an edge in this match. Sousa's main hard court results have come in indoors tournaments. He's reached the final in 5 hard court tournaments and 4 of them were indoors where conditions are way quicker than those in Indian Wells. Sousa record in Indian Wells stands at 1-4, with defeats against Delbonis, Gulbis, Dodig and Munoz de la Nava. Also I found interesting that he's a career record of 6-16 against players under 5'10.... IMO Schwartzman should start this match as favourite so given he's an underdog I'll be backing him to beat Sousa
3 units on Sch.. to beat Sousa at 2.00

I studied for many years the rating problem for international games and I found out, like you said, that is extremely difficult to compare based on some rating teams from different leagues. Actually it is not difficult but the results are poor.

First of all, if you use the same method to calculate ELO for each league then comparing one team from Spain with one team from Austria is wrong.  As soon as for each league the sum is zero for all ELO ratings then the first team in Austria league may have bigger rating than Barcelona.

The solution would be to further apply some correction based the league the teams come from but , in this case, the next question is how to find these corrections? It is very complicated.


 
Another problem, as you noted earlier, is different motivation that will affect anyway the ELO rating. As I noticed is that the big teams are not very motivated when play in EL (as they lost contact with CL, their initial goal) and now are focused on domestic championship. The same situation when speaking about small teams because probably they have already reached more than initial goal and  their best  players are already under pressure because are probably  hunted by the bigger teams (Rostov, Nicosia…).

 On this stage I would bet, as motivated teams, on 2nd echelon teams. (Anderlecht, Ajax, Roma….)But this may be a long discussion and it is not the moment now.

Another problem is that the European Cups are almost all or nothing games. The teams have not time to fix the results, maybe just 1-2 games not a whole season like on the domestic league so they are forced to play (at least to try ) at full strength  regardless their ELO coefficient that shows the relative value of the team over the other teams on the same league.  All that count will be their motivation and their absolute strength. Have to read a lot to see what happens inside every team….


 
So, giving these problems I renounced to ELO (or other ratings systems) for international games. Of course maybe some solutions may exists but they are over my resources…


 
Finally, I found that the best method to get something (or at least to lose the minimum possible) from International games is to read all you find about the teams involved, to find their motivation ..all classic stuff.  Then check the odds.

As you said, some teams are over evaluated , not by the bookies but by the other players that did not handle correct the game.  Of course the bookies will be ready any moment to offer a higher price if there are high demands for a result. (Manchester)

Sorry for the long message, I was afraid to write but on my thread only,  because „language barrier” but I got  some courage now.  

  


 

 

 

I certainly wouldn't dismiss Murray, he was the only Big Four member to deliver last week and has only one bad loss to his name in 2017. Also more motivated than, say, Djokovic imo. Should win his quarter if he's fit and mentally at it, but he's a short price at Paddy (1.53).
Nishikori looks like a weak favourite to me, especially since he doesn't like hot conditions. Pouille might actually be the value bet, but I'd like a bit more than 10.00 to take it.
Thiem isn't playing all that well in this season, but the rest of the quarter hasn't been better, Wawrinka poor, Berdych even worse, Monfils thoroughly average. Dolgopolov or Isner could be good shouts as underdogs somewhere, fully agreed.
And the last quarter? Well, if there was an option to oppose Djokovic in quarter betting, I would, he just doesn't seem to have the drive anymore. Understandable, but it will lead to sad times for his fans. Kyrgios will be a good underdog shout at some point probably, the only in-form player in the quarter really. Nadal not without a chance either.
Matches I don't know yet, will look at them later today or early tomorrow.

Bottom quarter of Indian Wells is absolutely unreal, Federer Nadal Zverev Kyrgios Delpo and Nole will fight for ONE spot in the last 4. In these tournaments I like betting on who's winning his quarter/ to reach the semifinal
In the first quarter I like Tsonga and Goffin. Both have been playing superb this season, Tsonga unbeaten in his last 9 matches with 5 wins against top 20 opposition and Goffin as well going deep in the tournaments he's played. And Murray doesn't have the greatest numbers in Indian Wells. My choice will depend on the price they're given...
I fancy Nishikori in the third quarter, his draw looks relatively. Dimitrov can be his opponent in the QF but I don't rate him high in these slow conditions, I will definitely keep an eye on Sock and Medvedev.
Then in the second quarter, I like Thiem and Isner. These slow conditions should suit Thiem. And Isner, even if he's a big server, he's got a strong record in IW (20-9) with 8 of those 9 losses coming against top 10 opposition and the other against Hewitt. Stan hasn't  a good record here and Monfils is not reliable. I will keep an eye on the Dog, former semifinalist here, he's in form and his draw is handy.
Then last quarter is crazy.
I'm just waiting for the odds to come out, I'd like to read your thoughts about the draw and some possible bets or predicted matches.
 
 
 

Bottom quarter of Indian Wells is absolutely unreal, Federer Nadal Zverev Kyrgios Delpo and Nole will fight for ONE spot in the last 4. In these tournaments I like betting on who's winning his quarter/ to reach the semifinal
In the first quarter I like Tsonga and Goffin. Both have been playing superb this season, Tsonga unbeaten in his last 9 matches with 5 wins against top 20 opposition and Goffin as well going deep in the tournaments he's played. And Murray doesn't have the greatest numbers in Indian Wells. My choice will depend on the price they're given...
I fancy Nishikori in the third quarter, his draw looks relatively. Dimitrov can be his opponent in the QF but I don't rate him high in these slow conditions, I will definitely keep an eye on Sock and Medvedev.
Then in the second quarter, I like Thiem and Isner. These slow conditions should suit Thiem. And Isner, even if he's a big server, he's got a strong record in IW (20-9) with 8 of those 9 losses coming against top 10 opposition and the other against Hewitt. Stan hasn't  a good record here and Monfils is not reliable. I will keep an eye on the Dog, former semifinalist here, he's in form and his draw is handy.
Then last quarter is crazy.
I'm just waiting for the odds to come out, I'd like to read your thoughts about the draw and some possible bets or predicted matches.
 
 
 

This week we have 3 tournaments, 2 250 and 1 500. Almost all the top players are taking part in these tournaments. Dubai with RF Murray Stan RBA Monfils and Acapulco with Nadal Nole Thiem Goffin and many more so yeah this week we'll have good tennis. Even if Dubai and Acapulco are on hard court, conditions here tend to be on the slow side which normally should give an edge to good returners especially in Acapulco which is one of the slowest hard court tournaments on tour.
I fancy two players in this first round in Acapulco. The first one being Lorenzi, he will face Yen Hsun Lu. Conditions as I said are on the slow side so this should favour the Italian who has improved considerably on hard court during the last year. Lu is a player more adapted to the fast asian courts so I think he might feel unconfortable in Mexico. Lu is not having a good year so far IMO, he's 3-5 so far, but two of the three matches that he won were due to a big choke from his opponent. Khachanov lost the match himself after being a set and a break up against Lu and then Fratangelo lost it incredibly after being a set and DOUBLE break up. Odds on Lorenzi are now around the 2.5 mark which I consider value. I would make him a slight favourite for this match.
Then the other one I fancy is the Dog, he is facing Cilic in the first round but form of these players is going in different directions. Dolgopolov has had a good run in the South American clay court tournaments, on the other hand Cilic has had a terrible year and he's had massive losses (Brown Kovalik) I might say he hasn't recovered yet from his massive choke in the davis Cup final. Dolgopolov reach the semifinals here last year and he outplayed Tomic during the first two sets. He's playing now on hard after playing two weeks on clay but as I sais conditions here are pretty slow so he might not need too much time to adapt to these conditions. Only concern is that he retired from his last match but I think it was more a precaution. Odds on him are around 3 and I'll have a small bet on him.
Then in Sao Paulo where conditions are a bit quick (altitude) even if its a clay court tournament, I fancy Monteiro against Berlocq. Last year the brazilian lost against eventual champion Cuevas in the QF. He also had a good run in Gstaad last year where conditions are a bit fast due to the altitude. He's around 2.25 so I'll take him to beat Berlocq. He's got a handy draw so I'm also on him to win it all at 30 EW.
2.5 units on Lorenzi to beat Lu at 2.45
2.5 units on Monteiro to beat Berlocq at 2.25
1.5 units on Dog to beat Cilic at 3.1
good luck to everyon this week

This week we have 3 tournaments, 2 250 and 1 500. Almost all the top players are taking part in these tournaments. Dubai with RF Murray Stan RBA Monfils and Acapulco with Nadal Nole Thiem Goffin and many more so yeah this week we'll have good tennis. Even if Dubai and Acapulco are on hard court, conditions here tend to be on the slow side which normally should give an edge to good returners especially in Acapulco which is one of the slowest hard court tournaments on tour.
I fancy two players in this first round in Acapulco. The first one being Lorenzi, he will face Yen Hsun Lu. Conditions as I said are on the slow side so this should favour the Italian who has improved considerably on hard court during the last year. Lu is a player more adapted to the fast asian courts so I think he might feel unconfortable in Mexico. Lu is not having a good year so far IMO, he's 3-5 so far, but two of the three matches that he won were due to a big choke from his opponent. Khachanov lost the match himself after being a set and a break up against Lu and then Fratangelo lost it incredibly after being a set and DOUBLE break up. Odds on Lorenzi are now around the 2.5 mark which I consider value. I would make him a slight favourite for this match.
Then the other one I fancy is the Dog, he is facing Cilic in the first round but form of these players is going in different directions. Dolgopolov has had a good run in the South American clay court tournaments, on the other hand Cilic has had a terrible year and he's had massive losses (Brown Kovalik) I might say he hasn't recovered yet from his massive choke in the davis Cup final. Dolgopolov reach the semifinals here last year and he outplayed Tomic during the first two sets. He's playing now on hard after playing two weeks on clay but as I sais conditions here are pretty slow so he might not need too much time to adapt to these conditions. Only concern is that he retired from his last match but I think it was more a precaution. Odds on him are around 3 and I'll have a small bet on him.
Then in Sao Paulo where conditions are a bit quick (altitude) even if its a clay court tournament, I fancy Monteiro against Berlocq. Last year the brazilian lost against eventual champion Cuevas in the QF. He also had a good run in Gstaad last year where conditions are a bit fast due to the altitude. He's around 2.25 so I'll take him to beat Berlocq. He's got a handy draw so I'm also on him to win it all at 30 EW.
2.5 units on Lorenzi to beat Lu at 2.45
2.5 units on Monteiro to beat Berlocq at 2.25
1.5 units on Dog to beat Cilic at 3.1
good luck to everyon this week

This week we have 3 tournaments, 2 250 and 1 500. Almost all the top players are taking part in these tournaments. Dubai with RF Murray Stan RBA Monfils and Acapulco with Nadal Nole Thiem Goffin and many more so yeah this week we'll have good tennis. Even if Dubai and Acapulco are on hard court, conditions here tend to be on the slow side which normally should give an edge to good returners especially in Acapulco which is one of the slowest hard court tournaments on tour.
I fancy two players in this first round in Acapulco. The first one being Lorenzi, he will face Yen Hsun Lu. Conditions as I said are on the slow side so this should favour the Italian who has improved considerably on hard court during the last year. Lu is a player more adapted to the fast asian courts so I think he might feel unconfortable in Mexico. Lu is not having a good year so far IMO, he's 3-5 so far, but two of the three matches that he won were due to a big choke from his opponent. Khachanov lost the match himself after being a set and a break up against Lu and then Fratangelo lost it incredibly after being a set and DOUBLE break up. Odds on Lorenzi are now around the 2.5 mark which I consider value. I would make him a slight favourite for this match.
Then the other one I fancy is the Dog, he is facing Cilic in the first round but form of these players is going in different directions. Dolgopolov has had a good run in the South American clay court tournaments, on the other hand Cilic has had a terrible year and he's had massive losses (Brown Kovalik) I might say he hasn't recovered yet from his massive choke in the davis Cup final. Dolgopolov reach the semifinals here last year and he outplayed Tomic during the first two sets. He's playing now on hard after playing two weeks on clay but as I sais conditions here are pretty slow so he might not need too much time to adapt to these conditions. Only concern is that he retired from his last match but I think it was more a precaution. Odds on him are around 3 and I'll have a small bet on him.
Then in Sao Paulo where conditions are a bit quick (altitude) even if its a clay court tournament, I fancy Monteiro against Berlocq. Last year the brazilian lost against eventual champion Cuevas in the QF. He also had a good run in Gstaad last year where conditions are a bit fast due to the altitude. He's around 2.25 so I'll take him to beat Berlocq. He's got a handy draw so I'm also on him to win it all at 30 EW.
2.5 units on Lorenzi to beat Lu at 2.45
2.5 units on Monteiro to beat Berlocq at 2.25
1.5 units on Dog to beat Cilic at 3.1
good luck to everyon this week

This week we have 3 tournaments, 2 250 and 1 500. Almost all the top players are taking part in these tournaments. Dubai with RF Murray Stan RBA Monfils and Acapulco with Nadal Nole Thiem Goffin and many more so yeah this week we'll have good tennis. Even if Dubai and Acapulco are on hard court, conditions here tend to be on the slow side which normally should give an edge to good returners especially in Acapulco which is one of the slowest hard court tournaments on tour.
I fancy two players in this first round in Acapulco. The first one being Lorenzi, he will face Yen Hsun Lu. Conditions as I said are on the slow side so this should favour the Italian who has improved considerably on hard court during the last year. Lu is a player more adapted to the fast asian courts so I think he might feel unconfortable in Mexico. Lu is not having a good year so far IMO, he's 3-5 so far, but two of the three matches that he won were due to a big choke from his opponent. Khachanov lost the match himself after being a set and a break up against Lu and then Fratangelo lost it incredibly after being a set and DOUBLE break up. Odds on Lorenzi are now around the 2.5 mark which I consider value. I would make him a slight favourite for this match.
Then the other one I fancy is the Dog, he is facing Cilic in the first round but form of these players is going in different directions. Dolgopolov has had a good run in the South American clay court tournaments, on the other hand Cilic has had a terrible year and he's had massive losses (Brown Kovalik) I might say he hasn't recovered yet from his massive choke in the davis Cup final. Dolgopolov reach the semifinals here last year and he outplayed Tomic during the first two sets. He's playing now on hard after playing two weeks on clay but as I sais conditions here are pretty slow so he might not need too much time to adapt to these conditions. Only concern is that he retired from his last match but I think it was more a precaution. Odds on him are around 3 and I'll have a small bet on him.
Then in Sao Paulo where conditions are a bit quick (altitude) even if its a clay court tournament, I fancy Monteiro against Berlocq. Last year the brazilian lost against eventual champion Cuevas in the QF. He also had a good run in Gstaad last year where conditions are a bit fast due to the altitude. He's around 2.25 so I'll take him to beat Berlocq. He's got a handy draw so I'm also on him to win it all at 30 EW.
2.5 units on Lorenzi to beat Lu at 2.45
2.5 units on Monteiro to beat Berlocq at 2.25
1.5 units on Dog to beat Cilic at 3.1
good luck to everyon this week

This week we have 3 tournaments, 2 250 and 1 500. Almost all the top players are taking part in these tournaments. Dubai with RF Murray Stan RBA Monfils and Acapulco with Nadal Nole Thiem Goffin and many more so yeah this week we'll have good tennis. Even if Dubai and Acapulco are on hard court, conditions here tend to be on the slow side which normally should give an edge to good returners especially in Acapulco which is one of the slowest hard court tournaments on tour.
I fancy two players in this first round in Acapulco. The first one being Lorenzi, he will face Yen Hsun Lu. Conditions as I said are on the slow side so this should favour the Italian who has improved considerably on hard court during the last year. Lu is a player more adapted to the fast asian courts so I think he might feel unconfortable in Mexico. Lu is not having a good year so far IMO, he's 3-5 so far, but two of the three matches that he won were due to a big choke from his opponent. Khachanov lost the match himself after being a set and a break up against Lu and then Fratangelo lost it incredibly after being a set and DOUBLE break up. Odds on Lorenzi are now around the 2.5 mark which I consider value. I would make him a slight favourite for this match.
Then the other one I fancy is the Dog, he is facing Cilic in the first round but form of these players is going in different directions. Dolgopolov has had a good run in the South American clay court tournaments, on the other hand Cilic has had a terrible year and he's had massive losses (Brown Kovalik) I might say he hasn't recovered yet from his massive choke in the davis Cup final. Dolgopolov reach the semifinals here last year and he outplayed Tomic during the first two sets. He's playing now on hard after playing two weeks on clay but as I sais conditions here are pretty slow so he might not need too much time to adapt to these conditions. Only concern is that he retired from his last match but I think it was more a precaution. Odds on him are around 3 and I'll have a small bet on him.
Then in Sao Paulo where conditions are a bit quick (altitude) even if its a clay court tournament, I fancy Monteiro against Berlocq. Last year the brazilian lost against eventual champion Cuevas in the QF. He also had a good run in Gstaad last year where conditions are a bit fast due to the altitude. He's around 2.25 so I'll take him to beat Berlocq. He's got a handy draw so I'm also on him to win it all at 30 EW.
2.5 units on Lorenzi to beat Lu at 2.45
2.5 units on Monteiro to beat Berlocq at 2.25
1.5 units on Dog to beat Cilic at 3.1
good luck to everyon this week

This week we have 3 tournaments, 2 250 and 1 500. Almost all the top players are taking part in these tournaments. Dubai with RF Murray Stan RBA Monfils and Acapulco with Nadal Nole Thiem Goffin and many more so yeah this week we'll have good tennis. Even if Dubai and Acapulco are on hard court, conditions here tend to be on the slow side which normally should give an edge to good returners especially in Acapulco which is one of the slowest hard court tournaments on tour.
I fancy two players in this first round in Acapulco. The first one being Lorenzi, he will face Yen Hsun Lu. Conditions as I said are on the slow side so this should favour the Italian who has improved considerably on hard court during the last year. Lu is a player more adapted to the fast asian courts so I think he might feel unconfortable in Mexico. Lu is not having a good year so far IMO, he's 3-5 so far, but two of the three matches that he won were due to a big choke from his opponent. Khachanov lost the match himself after being a set and a break up against Lu and then Fratangelo lost it incredibly after being a set and DOUBLE break up. Odds on Lorenzi are now around the 2.5 mark which I consider value. I would make him a slight favourite for this match.
Then the other one I fancy is the Dog, he is facing Cilic in the first round but form of these players is going in different directions. Dolgopolov has had a good run in the South American clay court tournaments, on the other hand Cilic has had a terrible year and he's had massive losses (Brown Kovalik) I might say he hasn't recovered yet from his massive choke in the davis Cup final. Dolgopolov reach the semifinals here last year and he outplayed Tomic during the first two sets. He's playing now on hard after playing two weeks on clay but as I sais conditions here are pretty slow so he might not need too much time to adapt to these conditions. Only concern is that he retired from his last match but I think it was more a precaution. Odds on him are around 3 and I'll have a small bet on him.
Then in Sao Paulo where conditions are a bit quick (altitude) even if its a clay court tournament, I fancy Monteiro against Berlocq. Last year the brazilian lost against eventual champion Cuevas in the QF. He also had a good run in Gstaad last year where conditions are a bit fast due to the altitude. He's around 2.25 so I'll take him to beat Berlocq. He's got a handy draw so I'm also on him to win it all at 30 EW.
2.5 units on Lorenzi to beat Lu at 2.45
2.5 units on Monteiro to beat Berlocq at 2.25
1.5 units on Dog to beat Cilic at 3.1
good luck to everyon this week

I'm still deciding whether to bet on Kyrgios or not... to me this is also a 50-50 match so value is definitely on NK. Both have similar hold+break stats on hard, they hold almost 90% of their games and break just around the 20 percent mark. Surface here is one of the fastest on tour, they have been servin really well so I think first set can be a long one.Maybe over 10.5 or 12.5 games can be a good option depending on the odds. I agree this match will be decided by small margins, I hope its kyrgios as he's my outright for this tournament... 

Odds on Sparta Praga are interesting. Yeah, they lost the first leg 4-0 so this tie is done and dusted but now they're playing at home. They have a decent record in Europe this season winning 4 out of 5 games and in the whole season they have just lost one match. On the other hand Rostov have just won one away match this season and it was in August. Although in Europe their record gets better as they have played 5 games and just lost two (against bayern and atletico with a last minute winner) They've beaten anderlecht away and they drew against ajax and PSV. First leg was a 4-0 win for the russians but sparta had a player sent off in the minute 30 with 1-0 so not much could have been done. I think Rostov can play this match relaxed as only a heavy defeat would knock them out of the europa league. Odds on Sparta are drifting and they are currently around the 2.15 mark which IMO are a bit high given the circumstances.
I will appreciate if someone shares some info about this match. Can't find much stuff on the web...
Spurs -1.5 seems a good option for tonight...

Odds on Sparta Praga are interesting. Yeah, they lost the first leg 4-0 so this tie is done and dusted but now they're playing at home. They have a decent record in Europe this season winning 4 out of 5 games and in the whole season they have just lost one match. On the other hand Rostov have just won one away match this season and it was in August. Although in Europe their record gets better as they have played 5 games and just lost two (against bayern and atletico with a last minute winner) They've beaten anderlecht away and they drew against ajax and PSV. First leg was a 4-0 win for the russians but sparta had a player sent off in the minute 30 with 1-0 so not much could have been done. I think Rostov can play this match relaxed as only a heavy defeat would knock them out of the europa league. Odds on Sparta are drifting and they are currently around the 2.15 mark which IMO are a bit high given the circumstances.
I will appreciate if someone shares some info about this match. Can't find much stuff on the web...
Spurs -1.5 seems a good option for tonight...

Without Ter Stegen, it would be 7-0. I wrote a longer post few weeks ago. With Rossel, Bartomeu, Enrique, this Barcelona is becoming Real Madrid. La Masia is drawning, our youth potentials are leaving, and it's interesting that they are able to play key roles in clubs as Bayern, Borussia Dortmund, Villarreal, Valencia... but they are not good enough for Barcelona. On the other hand, we are taking players as Mathieu (20M), Gomes (40M), next one is Cancello (30M), who is by the way backup for Montoya in Valencia, but Montoya is from La Masia and he is not good enough to be in Barcelona. That's why highly intellectual Enrique decided that Sergi Roberto (one of the best midfielders produced by La Masia in last 10 years will become right full back, that we will be able to buy 40M Gomes, who is overrated as shit. Thiago left for 18M, Gomes came for 40M. Thiago is by far the best player of Bayern, while Gomes is by far the biggest disappointment of Barcelona this season.
 
Neymar was trying to do something, true. But take a look of some things: 
- right side of Barcelona is crazily open to opponent.. and than everyone are blaming Sergi Roberto (Barca player with most tackles by the way).. I want to see one full back able to cover all of that. If Rakitić is not playing, no one is covering space behind Leo, and than Roberto is left alone and exactly that happened yesterday and is happening for whole the season. 

- Gomes tried, but he failed. He lost so many balls, he had only 1 tackle in whole game, he didn't create anything, he was lost in galaxy.
 
- Emery simply raped Enrique. He had five players, able to cover Leo and at least three of them were all the time able to press him every single time when he received the ball. Team played with high pressure and they're three midfielders had almost as many tackles as whole team of Barcelona. They also outran them with aprox. 8km more.

- Emery focused totally on Leo, while he actually left Neymar little bit more of space, covered only by Meunier and Verratti/later Nkunku, while Marquinhos was helping with closing down the space on both sides actually. Another player who was trying to make it harder for Ney was Di Maria, who was helping in defence a lot yesterday. Another problem was Jordi Alba who was far from being dangerous in this match.

- Both teams were mainly focused on attack over left flank, but Emery stopped main player of Barcelona, from who almost all dangerous balls are coming (Leo) and because of that Suarez was totally cut out of the match. On the other hand Barcelona didn't stop anyone from PSG. They were too late in duels, they were to slow in attack, Neymar even if he was trying, was holding the ball to long, and that's why only two players were needed to stop him and when he saw that it's not his day, everything was easier for Meunier.

In my opinion, high pressing won the game. And Enrique's thinking about Barca being a counter-attack team is a total shame. Leo is reason that he is still here. Without Messi and with his tactical knowledge, this would be mid-table team.

all of this week finalists are playing next week. gasquet zverev dimitrov and goffin are playing in rotterdam and lorenzi and estrella burgos in buenos aires. as rotterdam is a 500 tournament there will be no byes in first round. in buenos aires there are four byes but just to the main 4 seeds but none of them is. so matches will be played on tuesday at last i think. what's more all of these players have started as favourites. 
zverev / thiem
gasquet / troicki 
goffin / kuznetsov 
dimitrov/ zverev mischa
estrella / monteiro
lorenzi / melzer gerald
gasquet is known for struggling after having played a final the week before and troicki is a decent player odds on him seems quite high given the circumstances. (h2h is 2-2) 
monteiro seems an interesting option as well. hes facing estrella burgos who will play quito final later and then will have to head to buenos aires to play. flight is around 7 hours from quito to buenos aires. so he'll be a bit tight with time. also conditions are different, ball flies in quito and this conditions clearly suit EB as he has an excellent record in quito, while buenos aires is more like a normal clay court, slow ball long rallies and after playing a lot this week it should be interesting to know what he has left in the tank ... same can be applied to lorenzi
thiem seems a viable option too. opens as an underdog against zverev who is playing both finals today. 
these matches are interesting to analyse further and given this week finalist are all favourites in their matches i think there's a good chance to have one or two underdog winners in the first round. if not, keeping an eye on them this week might give some profitable results too. 
good luck for this week

Champions League is finally back next week. In this stage I like betting on qualification. There are two ties in which I find some value, RM-Napoli and City-Monaco. Odds on Napoli to qualify are around 4 which implies a 25% to progress to the next round. But is this tie actually that inclined to RM? I think bookies constantly overrate RM. A couple of weeks ago they were knocked out of the spanish cup by Celta at odds of over 5. There are several matches RM have won this season with a late goal without even dominating the game. They also struggle to keep a clean sheet with avoiding to concede a goal in just 8 matches during this season. At home in CL they haven't looked great, they beat Sporting 2-1 with two late goals then they beat 5-1 LEGIA (?) and they drew against Dortmund 2-2. Away they drew 2-2 against Dortmund, 3-3 against Legia!!, and beat Sporting 2-1 with again a late goal. Bale won't play the first leg. On the other hand, Napoli haven't lost in the last 17 games with their last defeat coming against Juventus. They are second in Serie A which IMO is the best they can reach (Juve too strong for Italy).  In champions league they won their group which tbh was quite average. They didn't lose playing away and they scored in all those matches. They are the highest scoring team in Serie A thanks to the likes of Mertens Callejon Insigne Hamsik. I think Madrid are favourites to qualify but I wouldn't give Napoli just a 25% chance of progressing, to me this is a 65-60/35-40 tie.
The other tie I like is Monaco City. The english team looked a bit shaky after a strong start of the season but it seems they've gained a bit of momentum with the recent results. However they  don't convince me yet. They struggle to keep clean sheets in the league having just kept one CS in their last 11 home games. Monaco on the other hand are playing excellent this season, they are destroying every team in France and they are scoring for fun. If I'm not wrong they are the highest scoring team in the main european leagues. True is that french teams are really poor with the exception of PSG. Currently they are on top of Ligue 1 and there's some difference between the average french team and the average english team but Monaco are IMO the best team in France. They won their group beating Tottenham home and away and just losing the last match when they were already qualified as group winners. Odds on their qualification are around 3.3 and this implies a 30% of chances to progress to the quarter finals.  Personally, I think there's value on Monaco, I really rate them high and I think this tie is tigher than what the odds suggest. To me it's almost a 50-50 or maybe 55-45 with the edge going to city but I would never give Monaco just a 30% of chances.
If there are no major injuries in Monaco and Napoli, I'll be staking normally 2 units on Napoli at 4 and 2.5 on Monaco at 3.3.

Champions League is finally back next week. In this stage I like betting on qualification. There are two ties in which I find some value, RM-Napoli and City-Monaco. Odds on Napoli to qualify are around 4 which implies a 25% to progress to the next round. But is this tie actually that inclined to RM? I think bookies constantly overrate RM. A couple of weeks ago they were knocked out of the spanish cup by Celta at odds of over 5. There are several matches RM have won this season with a late goal without even dominating the game. They also struggle to keep a clean sheet with avoiding to concede a goal in just 8 matches during this season. At home in CL they haven't looked great, they beat Sporting 2-1 with two late goals then they beat 5-1 LEGIA (?) and they drew against Dortmund 2-2. Away they drew 2-2 against Dortmund, 3-3 against Legia!!, and beat Sporting 2-1 with again a late goal. Bale won't play the first leg. On the other hand, Napoli haven't lost in the last 17 games with their last defeat coming against Juventus. They are second in Serie A which IMO is the best they can reach (Juve too strong for Italy).  In champions league they won their group which tbh was quite average. They didn't lose playing away and they scored in all those matches. They are the highest scoring team in Serie A thanks to the likes of Mertens Callejon Insigne Hamsik. I think Madrid are favourites to qualify but I wouldn't give Napoli just a 25% chance of progressing, to me this is a 65-60/35-40 tie.
The other tie I like is Monaco City. The english team looked a bit shaky after a strong start of the season but it seems they've gained a bit of momentum with the recent results. However they  don't convince me yet. They struggle to keep clean sheets in the league having just kept one CS in their last 11 home games. Monaco on the other hand are playing excellent this season, they are destroying every team in France and they are scoring for fun. If I'm not wrong they are the highest scoring team in the main european leagues. True is that french teams are really poor with the exception of PSG. Currently they are on top of Ligue 1 and there's some difference between the average french team and the average english team but Monaco are IMO the best team in France. They won their group beating Tottenham home and away and just losing the last match when they were already qualified as group winners. Odds on their qualification are around 3.3 and this implies a 30% of chances to progress to the quarter finals.  Personally, I think there's value on Monaco, I really rate them high and I think this tie is tigher than what the odds suggest. To me it's almost a 50-50 or maybe 55-45 with the edge going to city but I would never give Monaco just a 30% of chances.
If there are no major injuries in Monaco and Napoli, I'll be staking normally 2 units on Napoli at 4 and 2.5 on Monaco at 3.3.

Agreed with everything above... I really think Napoli can catch a draw... Madrid is overrated right know you 're right!
But what i'm sure of, is that Man City is gonna be hit by a train in these two games against Monaco... You can't resist long against the best attack in Europe right now, even if you're guardiola... They're is no team like Monaco in PL, it's gonna be a real challenge for City, and i think they'll fail. Wenger didn't see it coming two years ago, and Monaco was weaker then... Monaco has certitudes, same coach, a real identity, a real style of playing, offensive, they're so efficient, deadly, and with outstanding players (this Monaco team is just full of young talents it's surreal), and I really think they could crush any premier league team right now...
The thing is IMO that the french league is not poor as said previously (it's the supermarket of the PL and the biggest producer of talents in europe, they've years of advance on PL teams in the formation of young talents). So, yes average team as you've said are weaker in France than those in PL, even though i'll be tempted to say that it's now less obvious than 5-7 years ago... Lyon, Nice, Marseille, St Etienne, new stadiums, lots of investments, clubs with regularity, smart in buying and selling... It's now paying... Lyon gave a hard time against Juventus not so long ago and deserved a win, and I'm sure you will see that Man Utd will struggle in europa league against St Etienne next week. So IMO, there is not a huge gap between these two leagues anymore. And for PSG and Monaco, they produce oftenly an amazing and beautiful football, both team, in Ligue 1 and in CL, and only Barcelona and Bayern are at that level or above this season... I don't see any PL teams right now close to that level of style, identity, tactical skills.. So yes, good and strong feeling on Monaco..!
I would also put something on PSG which is for me perfectly able to beat Barcelona.. I know it's Barcelona, but it's also PSG...!!  How many major teams in Europe have beaten Barcelona (or able to do it) these past years? Athletico Madrid, Real, PSG, Bayern .. that's it.. So PSG has much more than a chance, Cavani is on fire, and if Verratti is on the pitch, you can be sure that he will boss the midfield.. Not to mention that the best defense is the parisian one easily, T. Silva and Marquinhos are just enormous, allmost never a mistake.. Draxler and Di Maria are in great shape, Lucas around 15 goals, and Rabiot is for me, almost as talented as pogba, (but less than Verratti), overall a stunning young midfielder... Yes, go Paris... Enough of Barcelona...! Can you imagine that it's been 4 times in 5 years in champions league for them against each other? Plot you said? ;-)
Betting on both french clubs passing to the next round is risky but obvious to me.. (betting accordingly ;-)) Best arguments for PSG: T. Silva, Verratti & Cavani : the best vertebral column in Europe right now!  Not to mention that PSG has never lost a home game, in any european competition in more than ten years (One exception: Barcelona 2 years ago, and psg with a half injured team at the time in quarter.. 3-1, PSG beat them at home in group phase the same year). Real Madrid, or Arsenal also came recently, and were each time dominated, Arsenal didn't saw the ball, just managing to grab a lucky draw..
So PSG, Monaco and Napoli either to not lose (Draw no Bet, or double chance, Over 2.5, or even to qualify, it'll depend, but their chances are underestimated, agreed, and i would love to see Barcelona, City, and Real Madrid out at that stage..!

all of this week finalists are playing next week. gasquet zverev dimitrov and goffin are playing in rotterdam and lorenzi and estrella burgos in buenos aires. as rotterdam is a 500 tournament there will be no byes in first round. in buenos aires there are four byes but just to the main 4 seeds but none of them is. so matches will be played on tuesday at last i think. what's more all of these players have started as favourites. 
zverev / thiem
gasquet / troicki 
goffin / kuznetsov 
dimitrov/ zverev mischa
estrella / monteiro
lorenzi / melzer gerald
gasquet is known for struggling after having played a final the week before and troicki is a decent player odds on him seems quite high given the circumstances. (h2h is 2-2) 
monteiro seems an interesting option as well. hes facing estrella burgos who will play quito final later and then will have to head to buenos aires to play. flight is around 7 hours from quito to buenos aires. so he'll be a bit tight with time. also conditions are different, ball flies in quito and this conditions clearly suit EB as he has an excellent record in quito, while buenos aires is more like a normal clay court, slow ball long rallies and after playing a lot this week it should be interesting to know what he has left in the tank ... same can be applied to lorenzi
thiem seems a viable option too. opens as an underdog against zverev who is playing both finals today. 
these matches are interesting to analyse further and given this week finalist are all favourites in their matches i think there's a good chance to have one or two underdog winners in the first round. if not, keeping an eye on them this week might give some profitable results too. 
good luck for this week

all of this week finalists are playing next week. gasquet zverev dimitrov and goffin are playing in rotterdam and lorenzi and estrella burgos in buenos aires. as rotterdam is a 500 tournament there will be no byes in first round. in buenos aires there are four byes but just to the main 4 seeds but none of them is. so matches will be played on tuesday at last i think. what's more all of these players have started as favourites. 
zverev / thiem
gasquet / troicki 
goffin / kuznetsov 
dimitrov/ zverev mischa
estrella / monteiro
lorenzi / melzer gerald
gasquet is known for struggling after having played a final the week before and troicki is a decent player odds on him seems quite high given the circumstances. (h2h is 2-2) 
monteiro seems an interesting option as well. hes facing estrella burgos who will play quito final later and then will have to head to buenos aires to play. flight is around 7 hours from quito to buenos aires. so he'll be a bit tight with time. also conditions are different, ball flies in quito and this conditions clearly suit EB as he has an excellent record in quito, while buenos aires is more like a normal clay court, slow ball long rallies and after playing a lot this week it should be interesting to know what he has left in the tank ... same can be applied to lorenzi
thiem seems a viable option too. opens as an underdog against zverev who is playing both finals today. 
these matches are interesting to analyse further and given this week finalist are all favourites in their matches i think there's a good chance to have one or two underdog winners in the first round. if not, keeping an eye on them this week might give some profitable results too. 
good luck for this week

all of this week finalists are playing next week. gasquet zverev dimitrov and goffin are playing in rotterdam and lorenzi and estrella burgos in buenos aires. as rotterdam is a 500 tournament there will be no byes in first round. in buenos aires there are four byes but just to the main 4 seeds but none of them is. so matches will be played on tuesday at last i think. what's more all of these players have started as favourites. 
zverev / thiem
gasquet / troicki 
goffin / kuznetsov 
dimitrov/ zverev mischa
estrella / monteiro
lorenzi / melzer gerald
gasquet is known for struggling after having played a final the week before and troicki is a decent player odds on him seems quite high given the circumstances. (h2h is 2-2) 
monteiro seems an interesting option as well. hes facing estrella burgos who will play quito final later and then will have to head to buenos aires to play. flight is around 7 hours from quito to buenos aires. so he'll be a bit tight with time. also conditions are different, ball flies in quito and this conditions clearly suit EB as he has an excellent record in quito, while buenos aires is more like a normal clay court, slow ball long rallies and after playing a lot this week it should be interesting to know what he has left in the tank ... same can be applied to lorenzi
thiem seems a viable option too. opens as an underdog against zverev who is playing both finals today. 
these matches are interesting to analyse further and given this week finalist are all favourites in their matches i think there's a good chance to have one or two underdog winners in the first round. if not, keeping an eye on them this week might give some profitable results too. 
good luck for this week

I like Khachanov today, maybe as the whole season so far.... Having bet on almost all Khachanov matches this season I'm a bit frustrated at how he's managed to lost especially two of them. Against Lu at 1.90 a match in which he was in complete control and had a set and break lead, he lost the second and third set in TB and in the last one he had a MP but he couldn't convert it. Then again Troicki this weekend, he had a 4-0 lead in the last TB and somehow he lost it too. Against big Ivo he lost 2-0 with two TB so yeah it can be said that he has some issues when going to a TB. Tonight he faces the one and only Benoit Paire in Montpellier. Conditions here are a bit fast which will help Khachanov powerful serve. Paire has held his serve just 71.3% of times on hard court in the last 52 weeks while he's broken 20.4% that makes a total of 91.7% which is really low for a top 50 player. However we know Paire and he can put an excellent perfomance out of nowhere it just depends on his mood. He's a former finalist here but in that run he beat mediocre oposition with the exception of Simon. On the other hand, Khachanov has a powerful serve which should be favoured by this conditions. His hold+break stats are over the 100% mark so based on that he should be favourite here. He played a 5-setter on friday against troicki and he was cramping by the end of the 4th set. The match lasted 4;30 that's a lot but given he's had four days to rest I think that wouldn't be a major issue. He's got a better serve than Paire for sure and he's a good backhand and forehand although sometimes he misses some incredible shots... I suppose the only reason why Khachanov is underdog is because he played 4.30 on friday.. Also the match will be played on GreenSet surface, especially used for indoors tournaments and Paire has not a good recent record on that surface as he lost in first round in Antwerp Rotterdam Montpellier and Metz last year against the likes of Millot, Mathieu, Darcis and Dodig.... If I don't stake a full 5 units on this bet is because I prefer to be a bit cautious regarding Khachanov fitness and bad TB record. Still I'm happy to back Khachanov at odds of over 2. 
3.5 units on Khachanov to win at 2.05
 

I completely agree. I've had my thoughts on Khachanov too so I'm taking him to win.