Atko Posted September 9, 2010 Author Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open -7.00pts. No success with these; Robredo never really looked like winning the match after losing a first set he really should have taken and I narrowly missed out with my larger bet on the handicap as well. Recouped a little cash yesterday by having a small punt on the Novak Djokovic -3.5 game handicap in-play with Paddy Power. Stanislas Wawrinka v Mikhail Youzhny I feel that we could be in for a real ding-dong battle here between the two surprise quarter-finalists. Stanislas Wawrinka will no doubt be tired after his physically and mentally draining match against Sam Querrey but his last two performances against the American & Brit Andy Murray show just how much new coach Peter Lundgren has helped him psychologically. He has played within himself in the big moments in a way that I've never seen from him before. If Stan was fully fit I'd definitely be backing him to take this match and I was contemplating a punt on him anyway before I saw just now that his odds have come in from yesterday's tempting 2.3ish to around evens with most firms. Mikhail Youzhny has enjoyed an excellent tournament and is the fresher of the two players coming into this match, having played three consecutive four-setters at Flushing Meadows thus far but not having experienced anything like like the marathon Stan had to endure in round four. The Russian also has the advantage of having played in and won a quarter-final here before, back in 2006. 25th seed Wawrinka is entering unchartered territory in that sense. Tactically, Youzhny will probably look to counter-punch as Wawrinka will be his usual aggressive self and I feel that the number 12 seed may be able to gain the upper hand here because Stan can become a little one-dimensional at times. However, if the Swiss star strikes the ball like he has been for the past ten days he could have too much for Youzhny. All things considered, I think these players are very evenly matched coming into this match and the movement in the market reflects that. I don't expect either player to win in straight sets and think we could well see this one go the distance. Blue Square offer 1.91 on over 39.5 games which seems to me like a very good price considering that several bookies are offering odds of around 1.8 on overs with the 40.5 game line. Over 39.5 games @ 1.91 - 5pts - Blue Square Really good post mate, and hard to argue with the points you raise. I have tipped up Youzhny earlier but I wouldn't rule out a long match either and you've certainly found the value there. Here's hoping for both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACL Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Cheers Atko. Always enjoy reading your tips as well. Youzhny should have the edge in a longer match simply because Stan has played more tennis. Hoping for a real humdinger as we haven't had many classics on the men's side of the draw this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open last night i couldnt really call this match but there seems to be good money for stan all morning (does somebody know something, maybe youzhny is carring some sort of knock) so with that in mind i have gone for this:ok Selection evens - S Wawrinka +1.5 games- laddies Event M Youzhny vs S Wawrinka US Open Market Handicap betting 5PTS win:hope the more i havve thought about the stan match the more i think i should of went for the overs:wall ah well bet done:hope come on STAN:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Bit of a change in the odds between Stan/Youzhny........screams stay away if you ask me. Coin flip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cobblers Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Yes, agreed on that. Unfortunately I've already comitted to Youzny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-unit Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open R. Nadal - F. Verdasco Under 33.5 games @ 2.16 with Pinnacle 10/10 (flat staking) I dont think this looks low concidering the way Nadal have played. He is very focused and have cruised thru so far. Confidence is high and his serve is working great. Its really suprising the way Verdasco came thru after going down two sets to fellow spaniard Ferrer. He have played a couple of tough matches and I think he is too suprised at being here. Now being tired is not big reason for this bet, but going against Nadal you need to be in top shape. I dont think he would have big chances even in this form, over last months, and now going up against on fire and focused Nadal he is just happy to be here and it will show. Clear class difference 10-0 to the world number one H2H and he is much better then 2009 when they played 5 sets in AO. The handi on Rafa being -7.5 most places is really no value imo, neither is -2.5 in sets, wich I belive in. The Under 33.5 games on Pinnacle however @ 2.16 when many other bookies have U31.5 @ 2.1 looks good to me. Nadal to go in 3 sets and with some margins in case 1set goes tight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Totally different Wawa I'm watching tonight, he's pushing a bit but in this wind I think it's right at some points....plus his slice backhand is getting a few errors out of Youzhny backhand, similar to what Youzhny often does. 1 set all, long way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Not the greatest game quality wise but still enthralling nonetheless. Did have a little nibble at Wawrinka -1.5 handicap in play at 4-3 in that second set. Hopefully he can take this next set now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Lot of errors, understandable though.Biggest match of Stan's career and one of Youzhny's too. One shot was landing mid-court for Stan for a simple put away, by the time he went to hit the ball the wind had moved it a fair distance and he had to just push it back in.Tough for both guys. Break for Stan as I type. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open lol at Stan James link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Rafael Nadal -6.5 AH vs Fernando Verdasco. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (6/10) As much as I would love to see Rafa being beaten today, it's just not gonna happen. Just seen the conditions in Youzhny and Wawrinka match. They are very challenging and Verdasco will hate to be out there. He is all about big serve and massive forehand. Wind will ruin his game tonight for sure. Saw Nadal destroy Murray in Indian Wells final last year. It was terrible breeze that day and Murray who is one of the best players in the world managed to get only 3 games out of that match. Really can not see Verdasco surviving this one, he normally sucks mentally against Nadal and this time wind will come into the picture as well. Nadal to win by at least 7 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Any reason why you'd like to see Rafa beaten, Psycho? Hard to dislike him IMO. Fed is scared already at the thought of facing him Sunday. Maybe you're a Fed fan........;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Any reason why you'd like to see Rafa beaten, Psycho? Hard to dislike him IMO. Fed is scared already at the thought of facing him Sunday. Maybe you're a Fed fan........;) Actually I am but disliking Nadal has nothing to do with it. Really have never liked him and never will. You're right about Federer, he always wets his pants when playing against Rafa :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Rafa is in the final already.....Verdasco and Stan is a pretty good route for him. Neither are the huge serving flat hitters that could take him out. I really want to see that final. Fed overrated against Nole though in terms of price. 1.3 is a joke. Should win but dangerous player all the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishy25 Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Yeah that Stan james link did make me chuckle. With Psycho on that Nadal handicap though, really don't see him having too much trouble tonight. Against Ferrer he was second best for most of the match so 6.5 doesn't look too heavy. With regards to the match atm, can't help feeling that Youzhny isn't out of this yet. Overs bet looks a really good shout though before the match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Rafa is in the final already.....Verdasco and Stan is a pretty good route for him. Neither are the huge serving flat hitters that could take him out. I really want to see that final. Fed overrated against Nole though in terms of price. 1.3 is a joke. Should win but dangerous player all the same. I think the price is a just a little bit overrated but not much. Federer has taken Novak out in last 3 Opens and will do the same thing again come match time. Could be another close match with scorelines like 7-5, but Federer to win anyway and with this being best of 5 sets match he has got an advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Rafael Nadal -6.5 AH vs Fernando Verdasco. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (6/10) As much as I would love to see Rafa being beaten today, it's just not gonna happen. Just seen the conditions in Youzhny and Wawrinka match. They are very challenging and Verdasco will hate to be out there. He is all about big serve and massive forehand. Wind will ruin his game tonight for sure. Saw Nadal destroy Murray in Indian Wells final last year. It was terrible breeze that day and Murray who is one of the best players in the world managed to get only 3 games out of that match. Really can not see Verdasco surviving this one, he normally sucks mentally against Nadal and this time wind will come into the picture as well. Nadal to win by at least 7 games. going to follow you on this one m8 :ok have watched most of nadals matches and he has been impressive and with the H2H being 11-0 to rafa, so i came on to do rafa to win 3-0 but because my account is with laddies who price is 1/2 where as paddy power is going 5/6 then i cant take the 1/2 so i have went with the handicap which is 4/5:hope SelectionSelection Details1 US OpenR Nadal vs F VerdascoHandicap betting 2010-09-10 01:15:00R Nadal -6.5 games @ 4/5 8PTS WIN:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Oh yeah Fed win for sure, but the fact its the US makes Fed overrated.He was good last night vs Soderling, though should have lost the 3rd. Looks like Stan wants a 5th set here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sneej Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open Any reason why you'd like to see Rafa beaten, Psycho? Hard to dislike him IMO. Fed is scared already at the thought of facing him Sunday. Maybe you're a Fed fan........;) I have to side with psycho I'm afraid, not too fond of Nadal either. Just comes across quite arrogant and just doesn't seem like he appreciates how talented he is in a weird way. I love Feds though, always gracious even in defeat, never smug when he wins....a true sporting great imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milano01 Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open oh my god wawrinka is awful at the begining of the fourth :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open whats the crack with all them red crosses in my last post:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open I have to side with psycho I'm afraid' date=' not too fond of Nadal either. Just comes across quite arrogant and just doesn't seem like he appreciates how talented he is in a weird way. I love Feds though, always gracious even in defeat, never smug when he wins....a true sporting great imo.[/quote'] I thought it was the other way around to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open stan needs to get his act together:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open and well done to all those that have the overs in the stan match:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open come on stan at least 3 games;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ibanez1004 Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open stan was broken first game of the last set :( :wall Edit: Yay stan broke back 2-2 with him serving now~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open stan fighting back and youzhny has trainer out:spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ibanez1004 Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open *gasp* Youzhny breaks back~ What is going on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open stan looks in trouble:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted September 9, 2010 Share Posted September 9, 2010 Re: Tennis - US Open stan refusing to give up but how long can he last Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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