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Tennis - US Open

Atko
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Wazazel

Wazazel

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Re: Tennis - US Open

Yep that's correct. Basically' date=' if you back a player with a -5.5 games handicap, then that player would need to win at least 6 more games than his/her opponent in the match for the bet to come through. Alternatively, if you back a player with a +5.5 handicap (otherside of the spectrum), their opponent would have to win at least 6 more games if that makes sense?[/quote'] Thanks that clears up alot.
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Atko

Atko

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Re: Tennis - US Open Not the best of days today, staring at a loss if Ferrero doesn't produce the goods. Here's what I'm on for tomorrow. Rafael Nadal vs Gilles Simon - Rafael Nadal -7 games AH @ 1.99 with Pinnacle (6/10) I was expecting the handicap to be higher here. Simon did really well to take out Philipp Kohlschreiber in the last round but I'm not sure he's got much of a chance here. Nadal played well against Denis Istomin - particularly with his serve, didn't lose it once - and if the Uzbek hadn't been on form himself then Nadal would've won more comfortably than he did. Nadal has admitted that he's been working on his serve so I expect him again to be solid in that department. Simon is a man who I still think is recovering from his injuries. He's a shadow of the player he was two years ago when he was competing with Nadal at the top of the rankings. He's lost a bit of juice from his groundstrokes and he's not capable of hitting through Nadal, unlike Istomin and to a lesser extent, Teimuraz Gabashvili. The Frenchman is also especially weak on second serve and if he gives Nadal a look-in there, the Spaniard will take advantage. It's also worth noting that Simon played five sets with Kohlschreiber last time out and probably comes in here a shade jaded. Reckon Nadal is more than capable of covering this handicap. Feliciano Lopez vs Sergiy Stakhovsky - Feliciano Lopez @ 1.909 with Pinnacle (5/10) First time these two have met so it'll be an intriguing match-up in that regard, but I think Lopez is well-placed to win this. Both men rode their luck in the last round - Benoit Paire served for the match against Lopez while Sergiy Stakhovsky fended off three match points against Ryan Harrison. I feel Stakhovsky is the more vulnerable of the two here. He played a full week in New Haven and has had a gruelling four setter against Peter Luczak and then his five-setter against Harrison this week. I don't think he's going to have an awful lot left in the tank. The heat tomorrow won't help his cause either. Lopez is obviously pretty dominant on serve but it's his in-play tactics that might cause Stakhovsky problems. The Spaniard likes to attack the net and as a lefty, he'll immediately go to the Ukrainian's single-handed backhand. That's the weaker part of Stakhovsky's game when he's under pressure, as he often chips the ball back. Harrison came into the net a lot in their meeting and got a lot of joy there. Stakhovsky also has a pretty poor record against lefties in general. I'd recommend taking this with a bookie who pays out on retirements, as Stakhovsky has been known to call it a day early. I can't see him having much more to give here. :hope

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slider24

slider24

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Re: Tennis - US Open The organisers seem to gone out of their way here for Melzer. Nice cushty two day break, a night match that will help stir him and protect him from any possible slumber that might have occured after two laboured matches so far. Ferrero has lost this; has that same look to him that he had against Malisse at Wimbledon. Might win the third set but that will be it.

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slider24

slider24

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Re: Tennis - US Open Really risky basing predictions on form in previous rounds when it comes to grand slams. Soderling shrugged off his dodgy first round match with ease, and Melzer is getting into the groove as well. The value really went out of Ferrero the more it seemed like these two were never going to play - and Melzer has re-charged the batteries in the meantime. If this was a day-time match - played earlier today - with hot weather, then it might have been a different story so in the future it might pay to wait until you know exactly when they're playing. Had a bad feeling when I realised the starting time because Melzer can be electric in such conditions.

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Armour

Armour

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Re: Tennis - US Open

Not the best of days today, staring at a loss if Ferrero doesn't produce the goods. Here's what I'm on for tomorrow. Rafael Nadal vs Gilles Simon - Rafael Nadal -7 games AH @ 1.99 with Pinnacle (6/10) I was expecting the handicap to be higher here. Simon did really well to take out Philipp Kohlschreiber in the last round but I'm not sure he's got much of a chance here. Nadal played well against Denis Istomin - particularly with his serve, didn't lose it once - and if the Uzbek hadn't been on form himself then Nadal would've won more comfortably than he did. Nadal has admitted that he's been working on his serve so I expect him again to be solid in that department. Simon is a man who I still think is recovering from his injuries. He's a shadow of the player he was two years ago when he was competing with Nadal at the top of the rankings. He's lost a bit of juice from his groundstrokes and he's not capable of hitting through Nadal, unlike Istomin and to a lesser extent, Teimuraz Gabashvili. The Frenchman is also especially weak on second serve and if he gives Nadal a look-in there, the Spaniard will take advantage. It's also worth noting that Simon played five sets with Kohlschreiber last time out and probably comes in here a shade jaded. Reckon Nadal is more than capable of covering this handicap. i've read in one of russian forums that Gilles Simon had a baby in other day, so i suppose that he would prefer going home than winning #1, i agree with to take Rafa's -7
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dealer_dil

dealer_dil

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Re: Tennis - US Open I'm thinking about backing Querrey with some handicap. Almagro is definitely not a big fan of hard courts and he has usually problems with big servers. He has a bad H2H record against big servers like Berdych (1:3), Ljubicic (1:3), Feliciano Lopez (0:1), A-Rod (0-1), Llodra (0:2), Fish (0:2), Cilic (0:2), Istomin (0:2) and finally against Querrey (0:1). It's funny that probably the only exception is giant Ivo Karlovic (2:0 for Almagro, but almost all sets ended in tie-breaks). Almagro's recent form on hard is nothing special. Since end of March he played just three games on this surface before US Open starts. In two previous rounds of US Open he played against typical clay-courters - Starace and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez so it is not anything special to win against those players in fourth sets. Against big server like Querrey he should be in troubles. Querrey in last round beat other Spaniard Marcel Granollers so he has some recent practice against opponents from Spainsmile.gif. In 2009 Querrey won against Almagro 6:3, 6:2 (Auckland, on hard surface). I hope that this time things will be similar!

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vlazar

vlazar

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Re: Tennis - US Open Nalbandian tb. Verdasco @1,60 pinnacle nalbi is in greath form , he survived DeVoest in 1.round and now everything is ok with him , plays like in US open series when he won tournament... and Verdasco is like from circus , ne doesn't have anything , against Fognini he somehow survived , and match against Mannarino I wouldn't take serious, because french men is totaly like an amateur (challengers, futures , and so hard match with riba-madrid)... Verdasco likes much spin , high balls , and with this wind in NY it will be soo hard for him... I am a fan od Spanish , but I don't se any chans for him today

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Psycho

Psycho

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Re: Tennis - US Open 3/4 was good yesterday. Really was expecting more from JCF. Sadly it was what it was... Having more plays today than I did yesterday with couple underdogs catching my eye. 1) Rafael Nadal vs Gilles Simon. Over 31.5 games. 2.00 @ Paddy Power (4/10) Paddy's have got shorter line once again and I'm taking that. Can't take unders on Rafa anymore. He is not the same player he once was. He has not be broken in twice matches thus far but still has got work very hard. Gabashvili got two tie-breaks out of him and Istomin just about got overs as well. So why can't Simon do that as well? He's a better player than those two and will bring different type of game and much more to think about for Nadal. Wouldn't be shocked if Simon won a set or two today. His game is quite good for Nadal, it will be all about confidence and taking chances. 31.5 games a bit short for my liking. 2) Andy Murray vs Stanislas Wawrinka. Under 35.5 games. 2.08 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Keeping in mind that this is a Grand Slam Murray for once will be playing solid tennis and won't like to waste energy playing extra sets. Wawrinka should be able to keep it close for a set or two but don't think he will have most of the say here. It will be up to Murray what sort of match he wants. They have played once before in US Open. Murray one in straight sets dropping just seven games. Can see similar scoreline today. 35.5 games is a bit too much for 3 sets which I think will be the case today. 3) Feliciano Lopez vs Sergiy Stakhovsk. Over 39.5 games. 1.83 @ Sportingbet (6/10) Really can't see anyone of these two winning this in straight sets. Lopez had struggles against Paire whom most of you probably haven't heard of. Stakhovsky has had 9 sets over two matches which tells his story. Fitness wise Lopez should have advantage but with his playing style not sure he can close this one out in straight sets. Over 39.5 games should be ok in 4 sets unless we'll have 6-3 scores in all sets which I don't think will happen. There have to be tie-break or two in this one. Anyway overs for me. 4) Fernando Verdasco to beat David Nalbandian. 2.60 @ 5Dimes (4/10) I think Nalbandian is vulnerable here. He had a horror show in round 1 against nobody player De Voest who pushed Nalbi all the way. Verdasco has got the game to trouble the Argentine and has got just a little bit more consistent serve which might probe to be the deciding factor in this match. Verdasco should be able to hold more comfortably but Nalbandian is gonna have to work harder, like it's always the case. Close match in prospect but really no great deal of difference in this one. Based on serve qualities I rate Verdasco chances quite ok in this one. He certainly is worth a shot at these odds. 5) Tommy Robredo to beat Michael Llodra. 2.37 @ Coral (4/10) Value in this one is huge. Not a fan of Robredo but he has played couple matches here already and I think we can start trusting him, well for a time being. Llodra has been serving great in his previous two wins but I wonder for how long he will be able to go? Robredo will have a better reading of his serve than Berdych and Hanescu had. Tommy can really get onto Frenchman's serve and make him work in baseline rallies. Encouraging sign here is that Robredo has beaten Llodra 2 out of 3 times they've played. Beating Llodra 6-4, 6-3 indoors in France is not a thing many people can do. Robredo did it couple years ago and has beaten him outdoors last year as well.

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Psycho

Psycho

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Re: Tennis - US Open And WTA... 1) Ana Ivanovic +5.5 games v Kim Clijsters. 1.66 @ Paddy Power (6/10) Odss @ 1.66 ar so so but should be ok, pairing this one with one of the faves in men's matches for an outright win. Was having a crack at handicaps on Ivanovic when they were playing in Cincy. Ivanovic retired with ankle injury after just 3 games. I was positive about her chances back then and I am even more so right now. Ivanovic definitely has picked up decent form and confidence comes with that. She should be able to match Klijsters in baseline exchanges and get something on Kim's second serve as well. She was hitting serve return winners in that short match they contested in Cincy. Kim is vulnerable, it's just nobody has really tested apart from brainless Kvitova who won the first three games against Klijsters before disappearing. 2) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Francesca Schiavone. 1.77 @ Pinnacle (6/10) I think bookies have got this one absolutely right. Pavlyuchenkova a slight favorite which is right. Schiavone should be able to outsmart the Russian in longer rallies but when it will come to big hitting there will only one winner in this one. Perhaps will be close match and not ruling out 3 sets but have a feeling Pavly will have just a bit too much power for Francesca today. She beat the Italian in straight sets in Miami earlier this year and has taken a set from her in their other match which was on clay. Pavly is crap on clay... Backing Pavly to advance. 3) Shahar Peer v Venus Williams. Under 19.5 games. 1.98 @ 188bet (8/10) This should be over in no time. Peer can't play Venus. It's pretty clear. She has got a mental problem against Williams. And even if Venus throws away few games she should be ok to get a comfortable win today. Peer has lost all 5 matches against Venus and has not won more than 4 games in a set against the American. No chance today either for the Israeli. Taking unders only because odds are a bit better than on -5 games handicap. Besides under 19.5 games should work in case of 6-4, 6-3, handicap won't. So take whatever you like more.

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saintg1

saintg1

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Re: Tennis - US Open Based on form through the tournament to date, have taken a multi on Wozniaki, Stosur and Schiavone all to win at least one set each @ 2.73 Sportsbet. Seems a reasonabole play given how the three have been playing. Happy to lob a 7/10 on this. GL all.

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fishy25

fishy25

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Re: Tennis - US Open Should be an absolute cracker with regards to watching the matches today with some fascinating matches. Taking 5 today, all with good value in them. Nadal vs Simon- Nadal -7.5 games handicap @ Evens Bet365- 7/10 Agreeing with a few others on this handicap for Rafa. Not in glorious form the Spaniard but has played well enough and his performance level is only going to increase. Can't see anything other than a Murray Nadal semi atm with Simon not troubling him today. In his defence, the 5 set victory over Kohlschreiber was a good result but Nadal is no fool like the German. He was not broken at all against Istomin, who is a better player than Simon IMO due to his injuries. Rafa leads the H2Hs and feel it will take a mini-miracle for the Frenchman to trouble Rafa at all today. With regards to the handicap, a 7.5 is really low to see for one of the best players in the game. It's possible that one break in each set will do it, depending on who serves first in the match but tbh, feel Nadal feel get lots of chances and break at least 3 times in the match. Now for the women's matchs, I may be deluded or just stupid and crazy for taking them but feel there COULD be some value in them. Ivanovic vs Clijsters- Ivanovic +4.5 games handicap @ Evens Bet365- 4/10 Ivanovic vs Clijsters- Ivanovic to win @ 3/1 Bet365- 2/10 Had this one down when I saw the draw and how both were playing. Watched each of Clijster's matches and Ivanovic's last couple and IMO there is nothing to choose between them. Ivanovic has only dropped 2 more games in the tournament and that is with playing slightly tougher opponents. Against Zheng the other day, she was destructive, hitting winner after winner, hitting her off the court. First time I'd seen her do that for some time after her shocking year. Clijsters is playing well, especially in her last match against Kvitova, but she still seems slightly vulnerable on serve, which was evident in her first round match against Greta Arn, broken twice in a row in the second set. These 2 were meant to play in Cincinnati a few weeks back but Ivanovic retired only 3 games in. Before that, Clijsters had a W/O against her and hammered her in Antwerp, but that was when Ana was establishing herself on the tour. Also rumours of her split from her golfing boyfriend has somehow made her play better, finding her love for the games again, so if she gives it her all today, puts her heart on the court and comes out firing, think she could trouble the champ here, sticking around for a bit, hopefully covering the handicap, then if it goes to a 3 setter perhaps, who knows. Here we go :tongue2. Peer vs Williams- Peer +5.5 games handicap @ 4/5 Bet365- 4/10 Peer vs Williams- Peer to win @ 4/1 Bet365- 1/10 Let's see of I can explain this one. Shahar is a good player no doubt, but she is yet to really establish herself as one of the world's best players. She has beaten Wozniacki this year on hard but generally she soes struggles against the best players. H2H against Williams firmly backs that up, losing it 5-0, yet to take a set of the American. So why am I taking this one on? Only way that Peer will win this is if she plays out of her skin with her best ever match and Williams makes tonnes of errors and her serve is not on song. Watching Williams' last match against Minella, there were signs. In her first 2 service games, she was broken, and serving double faults. She was lucky that the qualifier didn't have any power, but with a better opponent with a better serve, like Peer she would have struggled. The wind played havoc on the matches yesterday, especially the women, and it is meant to be a little bit down from yesterday but still there, which could again affect Williams. From this, and the massive odds, feel Princess Peer is worth small stakes and a little bigger for the handicap, and let's hope for the neutral sake, she makes competitive today.

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IAmGooner

IAmGooner

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Re: Tennis - US Open

Kuznetsova -3.5 games over Kirilenko @ 1.83 (Paddy Power:5/10) Anderson vs Gasquet OVER 37.5 games @ 4/5 (Paddy Power:3/10) JCF to beat Melzer @ 1.741 (Pinnacle:5/10)
WIN, LOSS X2......thankfully Kuz stopped the rot last night with a good win. Should have been a win on Anderson too if Lurch didnt choke serving for the set. JCF was just a beatdown, no complaints there.
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nkdz

nkdz

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Re: Tennis - US Open Llodra @ 1.72 Pinnacle Llodra should come out as a winner from this one. Robredo eliminated claycourter Rosol and Bebbetau who retired in second set while Llodra showed great tennis and was dominating in both of his matches. Llodra's serve and volley tennis works perfectly for now and he is favourite here with reason. I'd take everything above 1.50 on Llodra. GL. Stakh @ 2.00 VCbet IMO Stakhovsky should be more like a 1.7-1.8 favourite and we have odds around evens here. He might be a bit tired though because he played 9 sets in last two rounds of USO so i reccomend taking this bet at VOID bookie. Feliciano played really bad against frenchman Paire, who is young claycourter with almost no experience on GS, especially on fster surfaces. In first round he demolished Giraldo, also player of challenger calibre. Stakh should have the upper hand here, as FL is in bad shape while Ukrainian is in form of his life. Hope for another win of SS. GL. Dasco @ 2.54 Unibet Verdasco at 2.50 is a value bet but i do understand all that hype about Nalbandian cause he played superb so far. Still, fatigue might have bigger influence on his performance today cause he didn't played so many matches for a very long time. Dasco finally won someone in straight sets, victim was Mannarino. That should boost his confidence a lot and Verdasco can cope with Nalbandian. Odds should be evens IMO, although 1.80-2.20 in Bandy's favour would also be ok, and i wouldn't take Dasco for less than 2.20. GL.

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Dombets

Dombets

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Re: Tennis - US Open

Event Robredo v Llodra
Selection Robredo +3 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 05/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.94
Reasoning If last match i was against Robredo and i lost because of Benneteau's retreat i must go with him now. Llodra is on form but he dont have enough power to make so much perform here against one of the best returners from the ATP 100 top, Robredo.
Event F Lopez v Stakhovsky
Selection F Lopez
Strength 10/10
Date 05/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.98
Reasoning I think this is the third time when i go against ukrainean. Lopez have a good serve, left hand advantage and good baseline strokes, he know also some serve voley and nets play. Stakhovsky also is tired after la 5 sets game agaist Harrison and last 7 8 games in a row and a tournament won at New Heaven.
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