Speed Figures

[RussP]

Interested to hear views on these? Who uses them? Which do you use? I do think Topspeed in the RP are probably the best out there and I like to use them, as well as many other methods, to determine whether a horse is well handicapped and whether previous form is likely to stand up. Quite often you can use these to identify a short price handicap fav that is up against it...basically it won lto in a false run race, for example. A horse with consistent recent figures is generally likely to give its running. Any thoughts?

[fintron]

Re: Speed Figures How do they compile the topspeed figures in the RP? Are they just a normal figure of time clocked versus course standard, adjusted for any biases on the day? I used to read Lawrence Taylors on the ATR page but havent for a while.

[Trotter]

Re: Speed Figures Love speed figures ! I do my own for the all weather tracks.........started doing it over a year ago. Just done kempton tonight, it's taken me about 5 minutes. I 'save' them on the Racing post 'My Ratings' feature so every time I open up a horse form page the ratings are all there alongside each run I stuck to the all weather because there is far too much turf racing, i didn't have the inclination to spend the time doing them all. And i also can ignore 'going' which is the bane of turf speed figures. Now I have some 16 months (and growing) sets of figures for every horse that has run on the AW I never look at a race on the AW now without referring to speed figs. But it's not as simple as looking for the horse with the best figs. For some horses i have maybe 20 runs now and the figures can vary wildly from race to race. Which figure do you use ? Do you take their best figure, their most recent, the best of the last 3 etc ? I tend to look at the figs in the context of the horse overall form and profile. I'm wary of horses that have good form but never recorded a good figure. I'm wary of horses that only record good figures in defeat - I think of them as being dragged to a good figure by the field I like horses that have a consistant set of good ratings, horses that have 2 or 3 ratings better than the best of any other horse in the race (Resentful Angel tonight !) I could talk for ages about speed figures, but in the end it comes down to understanding what they mean in the context of the races and form. A figure in isolation is not very helpful.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Speed Figures I've read several books by Andrew Beyer and for a while tried to compile some, and got rather bogged down in the maths. I never seemed to be able to make them work for me. Interestingly, Beyer moves away from speed figures in the latest book I read. The books make a great read, but even when he is basing his bets on speed figures he says they don't work anywhere near as well on turf. If he can't make them work !! All that said, speed ratings are something I often come back to and I look at Patternform and I've tried Inform Speed ratings in the past.

[Trotter]

Re: Speed Figures One of the adages I have in my mind is that 'all horses can run slow, but only good ones can run fast' ie good horses can run slow and can run fast bad horses can only run slow, they can't run fast That's why I like to see some evidence in the figs that a horse has the ability to clock a good time even if he doesn't clock a good time on every run.

[Gingertipster]

As most have intimated, a good speed figure can be informative, but a bad speed figure does not mean it is not capable of good form. It may be something to do with pace in the race. I use "Timeform timefigures" (different to their “rating”). Ever moving rails and watering makes it's difficult to know just what individual times mean. A distance and going may be different to official. Timeform make their own assessment of goings using times. They also take in to account wind force and direction, latter can make a big difference. Timeform Perspective give a form rating for the first 6 home from every race, but with (in brackets) a time performance rating; + or -, better or worse than the form rating. An exceptional timefigure can take a while to recover from and sometimes they disappoint next time out. One way I use them is to work out which horses are likely to be favoured by a fast or slowly run race. When a time figure (for the grade) is good, it also tells you the pace of the race was strong or true, which can help when considering whether those taking part will be suited by the likely pace of a future race. One with a very good time figure for a distance may not be able to reproduce that form in a slowly run race and vice versa. Although form in a truly run race is more reliable (more likely to work out) than a slowly run race. A good time for the grade at one distance means it needed more stamina to produce that rating than a slowly run race which requires more speed. Therefore, a good time indicates a horse may stay further. One way of identifying a good two year old from it's debut, is to look at Timeform timefigures above 100 (gradually increasing that number throughout the year). Both Strong Suit and Elzaam (first and second in the Coventry) put up ratings of over 100 in their maidens. Rare so early in the season. Think some punters confuse fast times (like course records) with time (speed) figures. Going and other things must be taken in to consideration. It can be a good timefigure on soft ground. Many course records were broken at Royal Ascot, which indicates little; just that the going was on the firm side and races truly run. With Harbinger, no other horse at the meeting came close. Even allowing for it being the only group 1, in my opinion proves he's an exceptional racehorse with those exact conditions on that day.

[wwweeerrr]

Re: Speed Figures I have just picked up these messages which were posted years ago but I have always thought that the fastest horses are the best horses and therefore win the most races. However there is something lacking in a "pure" time figure as this doesn't inform you of the class of the opposition. For instance on Saturday 1st October 2011 RIGHT DIVINE ran over 7f at Redcar in a class 5 maiden carrying 9-3 and after adjustment for going allowance ran 1.82 above standard time. At Newmarket on the same day COUP DE VILLE ran in a class 2 sales race carrying 9-3 over seven furlongs and after going allowance adjustments ran 1.62 above standard time. This would mean in pure speed terms that RIGHT DIVINE is .20 or 1 length slower than COUP DE VILLE. This is of course nonsense as COUP DE VILLE had an official rating of 97 and RIGHT DIVINE beat an 82 rated rival by 1.25 lengths, about 3lbs so RIGHT DIVINE will probably get an official rating of 85+ . I struggled for years to try to find a way of calculating speed figures that could be compared to the Official Rating. Topspeed of the racing Post seem to me to use a very complicated and not very accurate method. They adjust all times to 5f and then calculate at 22lbs per second (4.4 lbs per length if they use 5 lengths per second?) and then adjust to 9stone ( Their base is a horse carrying 9stone and rated 100 for standard time purposes) they then add in their own WFA lbs. My method is much simpler and is done on the RP website in the results section by looking at the "adjusted times" page. I take the standard +/- adjust for GA and multiply by lengths per second . 5 lengths per second for 5 furlong 4.50 for 6 furlongs 4 for 7f etc based on the fact that horse cover a furlong more slowly as the length of the race increases . You can adjust all times to 5 furlongs and multiply by 5 lengths per second if you wish. Up to now I have not adjusted for weight or lbs per length. This is not necessary and will not give you a "class for the opposition" figure. All you need do is subtract or add your time figure (lengths per second) to the RPR for that particular race. the figure is on the same page then rate the race and save this to "My Ratings". The figure you will be left with is a time figure combined with an accurate performance / form figure for that race. These figures can be compared with the official Figure and gives you a massive advantage in assessing lightly raced 2 and 3 year olds. I have has some cracking winners in the big 2 year old group races this year. I think the Official Handicapper has some of his top two year olds about 10lb higher than mine at the moment, but remember his are based purely on form and mine are based on form and time. Anyway you might completely disagree with me but I have had two very profitable months this year July/August. It doesn't take long to rate a whole meeting if you put the calculations into a spread sheet and the RP rating page calculates the weights and bt lengths automatically. All comments welcome :):)

[Trotter]

Re: Speed Figures thanks for that wwweeerrr........interesting read ! I'm always interested in how people go about doing ratings......:D Not only is the beauty of it that we all do it differently but I reckon it's essential that to be successful you 'have' to do it differently otherwise everyone has the same ratings and the odds collapse. You need your own angle ! Personally i wouldn't be very keen on trying to produce amalgamated speed/form figures and I reckon they measure two different things and you're better off having two sets of ratings, one to measure each. In practise i tend not to use figures for 'form' which is a subjective opinion. I'd rather just look at class of race and official ratings of the horses in it Speed isn't subjective in the same way though, is it ? It's a factual measurement - how you derive it in terms of pounds and lengths might be subjective, but at least you're starting from a factual base. In practise I do incorporate a class rating into my speed figs because I use a combined going/class allowance to adjust the raw figures Wether or not to adjust for weight is a trcky one - I've started to do it this year but I'm not convinced it's worthwhile and I might go back to unadjusted for the start of the all weather season. I'm still thinking about it !

[wwweeerrr]

Re: Speed Figures Hi Trotter Yes I agree that combining the two might be a bad idea but as you know sometimes a time can be dreadfully slow even in a Grp race which means that they have gone fast somewhere in the race and not having sectional timing we have no idea when that might have been. By adding in a performance rating I feel at least I can get some kind of handle on the form. The main benefit for me is to be able to compare my figures with the OFFICIAL RATING and so in handicaps I can usually tell which horse or horses have a few pounds in hand. Anyway, it's all subjective. I should mention SIRIUS PROSPECT which at the moment is entered at York on Saturday in the 6f Sprint. It's latest figure is 106 ( according to me) and it has improved in it's last three runs. It is certainly up to winning in Pattern company. I think it probably has a decent chance in this race but would be looking around 4/1 for a bet. It always starts very slowly so if you back it you will have your heart in your mouth for most of the way, but it increases the excitement!! Cheers

[gamblermax]

Re: Speed Figures Unable to put in a word picture theTopspeed explained

[richard-westwood]

Re: Speed Figures my spreadsheet does a similar method but calculates beaten lengths as a percentage of the race therefore automatically adjusting the scale of lbs per length at different distances based on the time performance ......i.e the lbs per length in a fast 6f race is different from a slow run 6f lower class race therefore a standard adjustment i found was very inaccurate but as said its having a starting point and angle thats the key factor

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Speed Figures I purely use TS as I dont have the time to go into the depth that some of you guys do. I have to say though they dont seem to work badly and I am as much up this season as I have ever been through using them. I have to say though, I dont use them in isolation. Its important to look at the figure and assess its reliability first and the more form study I do, the better I am getting at analysing the race. Like the above post, I use a spreadsheet but mine is purely to make sure I am not wasting a bet through not checking through my main criteria (trip, ground, class, draw, running style etc). I tended to find I would get excited by a high TS figure and wonder why it was such a big price and rush to get my money on. It would only be after that I would cotton on that the conditions didnt suit anywhere as well as it did when he recorded the TS.

[harrisman]

Re: Speed Figures

I purely use TS as I dont have the time to go into the depth that some of you guys do. I have to say though they dont seem to work badly and I am as much up this season as I have ever been through using them. I have to say though, I dont use them in isolation. Its important to look at the figure and assess its reliability first and the more form study I do, the better I am getting at analysing the race. Like the above post, I use a spreadsheet but mine is purely to make sure I am not wasting a bet through not checking through my main criteria (trip, ground, class, draw, running style etc). I tended to find I would get excited by a high TS figure and wonder why it was such a big price and rush to get my money on. It would only be after that I would cotton on that the conditions didnt suit anywhere as well as it did when he recorded the TS.

HI interesting-have you made any analysis of the type of race and/or surface these figures have been of benefit for?

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Speed Figures Not really but I only really look at handicaps bar the big meetings. I do discard all ratings on heavy or firm as they arent very reliable and I distrust soft ground form initially unless the form looks solid.

[harrisman]

Re: Speed Figures

Not really but I only really look at handicaps bar the big meetings. I do discard all ratings on heavy or firm as they arent very reliable and I distrust soft ground form initially unless the form looks solid.

thanks-I guess I was interested in the relationship between the different types of courses on the relevance of the TS figure IE a galloping course compared with a tighter track,etc

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Speed Figures Oh right, well funny you should mention that because I have more or less come to the opinion that TS figures at tracks like Goodwood, Espom and to some extent Brighton are all pretty worthless when used to try and pick winners at any other track and to some extent its the other way round as well. Its certainly not clear cut I simply dont trust them. Similarly if I find there is a handy horse that ran around Catterick and recorded a quick TS figure, then unless there is other evidence to suggest that it is improving, it is more likely that the track suited the running style and in reality the horse should be marked down a few lbs if running over a stiffer or more galloping track. Again this works both ways.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Speed Figures

Oh right, well funny you should mention that because I have more or less come to the opinion that TS figures at tracks like Goodwood, Espom and to some extent Brighton are all pretty worthless when used to try and pick winners at any other track and to some extent its the other way round as well. Its certainly not clear cut I simply dont trust them. Similarly if I find there is a handy horse that ran around Catterick and recorded a quick TS figure, then unless there is other evidence to suggest that it is improving, it is more likely that the track suited the running style and in reality the horse should be marked down a few lbs if running over a stiffer or more galloping track. Again this works both ways.

some of the racing post standards are way out ......windsor and catterick spring to mind ....it would show itself as a false rating at certain courses and make it useless when trying to compare with another speed rating from a more accurate course ......it does my head in as i wish i had the tools to compile new flat standards ........brighton is a very stiff course so a 5f race is more like a 6f so you get a speed discrepancy in distance from certain courses ....and it can make lots of difference