UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

[Jase82]

	Tuesday 13 July 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Inter Baku v Lech Poznan (16:00 BST)	3.15	3.2	2.25	107.44 %
	Birkirkara v MŠK Žilina (17:00 BST)	8.5	4	1.37	109.37 %
	Liepajas Metalurgs v AC Sparta Praha (17:00 BST)	6.4	4.4	1.6	100.85 %
	Red Bull Salzburg v HB Tórshavn (17:00 BST)	1.05	12	25	107.57 %
	Tallinna FC Levadia v Debreceni VSC (17:00 BST)	2.63	3.25	2.42	109.80 %
	AC Omonia Nicosia v FK Renova (18:00 BST)	1.28	6.6	13	100.97 %
	AIK v Jeunesse d'Esch (18:00 BST)	1.05	10.4	23	109.16 %
	Litex Lovech v Rudar Pljevlja (18:00 BST)	1.4	3.83	8	110.04 %
	Hapoel Tel Aviv v FK Željeznicar (19:00 BST)	1.43	4	7	109.17 %
	Dinamo Zagreb v Koper (19:15 BST)	1.46	4.3	8	104.25 %
	Bohemians v The New Saints (19:45 BST)	1.45	4.2	7.6	105.91 %
	Wednesday 14 July 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Ekranas Panevezys v HJK Helsinki (17:00 BST)	2.3	3.25	3.18	105.69 %
	FC BATE Borisov v FH Hafnarfjördur (17:00 BST)	1.29	4.98	9	108.71 %
	FK Aktobe v Olimpi Rustavi (17:00 BST)	1.02	1.02	1.02	294.12 %
	Sheriff Tiraspol v Dinamo Tirana (18:00 BST)	1.33	4.5	8.24	109.55 %
	FK Partizan v Pyunik FC (19:45 BST)	1.2	5.72	11.2	109.74 %
	Linfield v Rosenborg BK (19:45 BST)	7.5	4	1.43	108.21 %

[discodave]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July if you oppose some of these teams in the league games the week before these ties are played then this will be extremely good for your bank balance, i found a 150/1 correct score using this way of thinking last week, the level of these teams is pretty poor and the players will get distracted by the prospect of playing the bigger teams in the games after this round putting more emphasis on winning the games above. GL,

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July We (Inter Baku) probably got one of the strongest opponents in this round and now have a very small chance of qualifying. However, Azeri teams play good football at home and might even win this one. Price @ 2.81 looks too good to ignore.

[Mozzi]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

We (Inter Baku) probably got one of the strongest opponents in this round and now have a very small chance of qualifying. However' date=' Azeri teams play good football at home and might even win this one. Price @ 2.81 looks too good to ignore.[/quote'] I rate your chances more than you do mate ;) Lech have sold Lewandowski now, who is their best striker by a mile. I don't think they'll score goals without him, simply - they rarely did in the Ekstraklasa last season without him. They're not vastly experienced in Europe whereas I feel Inter have more experience and I'd be very keen to take the home win here, to be honest, or at least lay the away win.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

I rate your chances more than you do mate ;) Lech have sold Lewandowski now' date=' who is their best striker by a mile. I don't think they'll score goals without him, simply - they rarely did in the Ekstraklasa last season without him. They're not vastly experienced in Europe whereas I feel Inter have more experience and I'd be very keen to take the home win here, to be honest, or at least lay the away win.[/quote'] During the past seasons most of our teams managed to qualify for the next round. But if you take Inter or Draw I guess the price will be around 1.60. So will likely take a home win here.

[benrhosgad]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July im welsh and i see the standard of the irish league is much better than the welsh premier league, even though tns is a professional team i see the price on Bohemias is a steal as has the welsh premier eague has finished since early May

[tougher than the rest]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

I rate your chances more than you do mate ;) Lech have sold Lewandowski now' date=' who is their best striker by a mile. I don't think they'll score goals without him, simply - they rarely did in the Ekstraklasa last season without him. They're not vastly experienced in Europe whereas I feel Inter have more experience and I'd be very keen to take the home win here, to be honest, or at least lay the away win.[/quote'] I'm not so pesimistic about Lech's chances. I'd say they have a clear advantage in defence and midfield with players like Arboleda, Gancarczyk, Bosacki, Stilic and Peszko. The bad news for Lech is the weather in Azerbaijan (exp. over 35 degrees Celsius). In fact for a couple of days we struggle in Poland to get by with similar weather :gimmebut certainly Lech is not used to play 90 minutes in such conditions. The good thing is that Lech is an experienced team with great coaching and managership. In recent years the original sin of Polish team who attended UEFA cups was that they underestimated opponents from "weaker" leagues. The best example is last year Wisla's blackout vs. Levadia Tallin. But you can't teach an old dog new tricks so it was almost impossible to motivate a bunch of old and complacent Wisla's "stars" to perform at their normal level. The same mistake won't be repeated in Lech. They are still hungry for international success and all parties (players, coach and management) know that. And a few words on Lewandowski's case. IMHO it is better to let player go if he wishes to and make some room for new faces than force him to stay and watch him walking across the pitch. To sum up - don't get excited about Baku's ability to upset Lech :dude. Could be a low scoring affair but I trust Lech to come out with a narrow win or a draw (may be scoreless) at least.

[iluvtennis]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

im welsh and i see the standard of the irish league is much better than the welsh premier league' date=' even though tns is a professional team i see the price on Bohemias is a steal as has the welsh premier eague has finished since early May[/quote'] Bohemians are definate favourites. However I think the difference between the sides is not that great. Bohemians struggle to score goals at home and the other Welsh side Llanelli got 2 draws in normal time against a reasonable side. I see a close game here. 9.0 on betfair is huge odds for TNS I think.

[zicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

Sport	Football (Internationals)
Event	Linfield - Rosenborg
Selection	Rosenborg -1 (EH)
Strength	10/10
Date	14/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bwin @ 2.30 (Back)
Reasoning	Not many bookies have got odds on this (or -1,5 AH) yet, but I'm anticipating the odds to be lower than this. Out of season Linfield got trashed by Randers last year and also lost 0-2 at home against Zagreb (?) the year before. Rosenborg are in great form. They didn't impress in the league last weekend, but still took their 8th straight win (all competitions). Champions League success is important for Rosenborg, even more so after last years humiliating exit in EL against Qarabagh. Difference in quality of the 2 teams and Rosebborg being in great form while Linfield are out of season make me believe Rosenborg -1 EH is worth a shot

[dealer_dil]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July I guess that "Inter" means "Internationale", because in this club only 5 players are from Azerbaijan. So many foreign players. I know only one of them - striker Poskus, Lithuania's International who played in Polish leagues since 2000 to 2001. If I'm not wrong this is the guy who scored two goals against Poland NT when Poland won 4:2 against... club from Polish second and third league. This was poor performance, before some international friendly or some quals. But it change all for Poskus who get contract in some polish club. I also noticed that Inter bought some solid defenders who were regular in their clubs: one played in Romanian League and another was regular in Austrian Bundesliga. Many players are experienced also thanks to their international teams. I know that Latvia, Estonia or Georgia are not solid clubs, but even those National Team play against Italy, Germany, Spain, or even Brazil. Before I checked Inter Baku squad i was thinking about backing Lech, now no bet for me.

[Artem]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July Linfield isn't a favourite in this pair, but I think they'll do everything possible to not to lose at home, because this result will mean Linfield probably won't proceed to next stage. Yes, Rosenborg looks good now, but I can believe that Linfield has chances of playing draw at their stadium. So, the only one bet I see value in is Double chance, 1X@ 3.00, Sportingbet I'll be thinking about other matches.

[Bester]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July Many thoughts have been putted into Inter Baku - Lech game. 1X2 is not easy task to predict but summing up all the factors, that is dryness and hight temperature, it's a first leg so the main tactic is to not concede a goal, the fact of best striker Lewandowski went to Borussia, Lech defensive style of soccer and maybe some other - similar aspects, the nicest option seems to be an under 2.5 play, priced at 1.75.

[Mahno]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July nothing for me this time.favorites are too short unless you take them on handicap and no point to chase value on weaker teams IMO.the best option for me will be in play market.those fisrt rounds are always dodgy,will be much more intresting in 3d round :ok

[redavok]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July Dinamo Zagreb v Koper (19:15 BST) Dinamo look extremely strong at home. Is Koper any good?

[ewana]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

Tallinna FC Levadia v Debreceni VSC (17:00 BST)

2.63

3.25

2.42

109.80 %

This fixture is a repeat of last year when these two sides met in the 2nd qualifying round. Debrecen won both games 1-0 and ended up progressing all the way to the group stages. Levadia Tallinn appear to be a lot weaker this year than they were last year as I have been following their domestic form and its nowhere near as good. This year they finally lost a league match for the first time since 2008 and have drawn against some shocking sides near the bottom (this included a match in which they were 1/50 to win it!). I reckon Debrecen's experience of last year will help them to grind out a narrow win to take back to Hungary for the return leg. Levadia Tallinn did knock Polish Champs Wisla Krakow out at this stage last year which was a creditible result however, I dont believe they are as strong anymore. Going to back the away win here. Debrecen to Win - 5/4 with BET365

[FCP]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

Event	Metalurgs Liepaja - Sparta Prague
Selection	Sparta Prague
Strength	10/10
Date	13/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.57 (Back)
Reasoning	Sparta Prague has a very experienced team with good players. In the market they didn't sold any important player. And they even bought the goalkeeper Zitka from Anderlecht, so i expect a strong Sparta Prague this season. Metalurgs Liepaja is a low level team and they have no quality for the Czech team. I think that this will be a easy away win and maybe Sparta seal the passport to the next round with a good result in this first leg. A solid and experienced team like Sparta Prague will manage the game as they want and on the end we will have a away win here.

[nkdz]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

Sport	Football (Euro Cups)
Event	Dinamo v Koper
Selection	Dinamo -1.5
Strength	10/10
Date	13/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 2.20 (Back)
Reasoning	Dinamo has the same team like the last year, finally no one important left the club and new coach arrived. Zajec has a lot more authority than previous coach and that is very important for this team. Dinamo techically much better team, only what puts me off from 10/10 is the fact that they are innefficient lately. Mandžukić will start what is very important. Koper is a solid team, but simply not on this level. The fact that their leader and best player is 39-years old Pavlin speaks for itself. GL.

[thc]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

if you oppose some of these teams in the league games the week before these ties are played then this will be extremely good for your bank balance, i found a 150/1 correct score using this way of thinking last week, the level of these teams is pretty poor and the players will get distracted by the prospect of playing the bigger teams in the games after this round putting more emphasis on winning the games above. GL,

So are you saying we should bet on the underdogs this round?

[thc]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

I rate your chances more than you do mate ;) Lech have sold Lewandowski now' date=' who is their best striker by a mile. I don't think they'll score goals without him, simply - they rarely did in the Ekstraklasa last season without him. They're not vastly experienced in Europe whereas I feel Inter have more experience and I'd be very keen to take the home win here, to be honest, or at least lay the away win.[/quote'] Maybe we will see another under game here. Remember FC Baku- Levski 0-0 last year? I don't expect the Azeri to win this one, to be honest. I give them no more than 25% to win. Look at all the other ex-Soviet teams with big budgets that got defeated in Europa league. The only bright light was Qarabag against anonymous Macedonian team. So if Lech are not to lose, then the under looks promising.

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

Sport	Football (Euro Cups)
Event	Dinamo v Koper
Selection	Dinamo -1.5
Strength	10/10
Date	13/07/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 2.20 (Back)
Reasoning	Dinamo has the same team like the last year' date=' finally no one important left the club and new coach arrived. Zajec has a lot more authority than previous coach and that is very important for this team. Dinamo techically much better team, only what puts me off from 10/10 is the fact that they are innefficient lately. Mandžukić will start what is very important. Koper is a solid team, but simply not on this level. The fact that their leader and best player is 39-years old Pavlin speaks for itself. GL.

Corinthian, could you please clarify what bet you are taking :ok As far as I can see, there are no Asian lines set up :unsure

[IrishTW]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July It is European Handicap -1, which is same as asian -1.5.

[Juret]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July AIK-Jeunesse Esch, I will have a go at the under 2.5 market. AIK is no longer the team that won Allsvenskan and their best team part then was in defence. Jeunesse will for sure have a defensive approach to this game and with AIK not scoring very well, they could have a hard time to win this game hugely with Jeunesse probably not scoring. Odds over 3.00 on under 2.5 is considered value imo. But not the largest stake here.

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

It is European Handicap -1' date=' which is same as asian -1.5.[/quote'] Yes I know :ok When making a selection, the selection needs to be currently abvailable and transparent. Because there are others that might not understand exactly.

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July Red Bull Salzburg v HB Tórshavn OVER 3.75 @ 1.70 - BET365. Torshavn are the current Faroe Islands champions, and even though they are already into their season, I see a huge class difference here. Torshhavn have a horrendous record in European competition. They have conceded at least four goals in all but one of their away qualifying fixtures. That being a 3-0 away loss to Motherwell in 94/95, losing the home tie 4-1. They've been absolutely demoralised by much weaker opposition than Salzburg over the years. Their last foray into European competition in 07/08 resulted in a 4-1 away loss to Iclandic opposition.

[Spooner]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July Just a little one of my theories for today as I don't know a great deal about the sides. I'm going for two under 2.5 bets in two matches today, simply because both the visitors are strong favourites to qualify from their matches however they will not want to run the risk of losing the first leg, home sides will probably both look to keep a clean sheet because it could be massive for them to score at visitors ground, away sides will be happy with 0-0 as they'll be confident of beating their opponents on home turf. I don't see many goals in these matches today for the simple reasons above, of course we don't want to see early goals as that changes matches. Levadia Tallinn v Debrecen - Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 & 0-0 @ 10 Inter Baku v Lech Pozan - Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 & 0-0 @ 9.6 Betfair.

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July AIK - 2.75 @ 2.05 - BET365 v Jeunesse d'Esch. I try not to take AH on short priced favourites any more, but here I have to take these odds. AIK may not be performing to optimum standards in their league, but they, unlike Jeunesse, are well into their season. Jeunesse are the Luxembourg champions, and played their last fixture in May. I just feel that with an early goal, this is the sort of game that could end in a cricket score for what is still a much higher class of opponent than Jeunesse are used to. They've never advanced past the first qualifying round of a European competition in modern times. Losing by some big scores away to Celtic, Skonto Riga, Grasshoppers and FC Sion over the years. I'd rather take the home side to beat the handicap here because like I say, an early goal could kill the tie. And I'd rather be on the better quality opposition because there is no guarentee Jeunesse can hold out.

[TOTTI3]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July Inter Baku-Lech Poznan = 1X (1.61) / Under (1.65) bet365 stake 5 / 10 Playing in Azerbaijan is not easy for anyone to Lech for the favored team. The Lech will be difficult because of the heat and because he only played a few games and then a very rough condition. The department offensive Lech is weakened by the sale of R. Lewandowski (Borussia D.) replaced by Wichniarek very old and slow, Mikolajczak very young and inexperienced. Inter Baku is a very rich young team with only a few local players the rest of the formation is composed of foreign players with huge experience of international football. After these considerations I think the prognosis is more logical and under-1X :hope:hope:hope

[Mozzi]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July

I'm not so pesimistic about Lech's chances. I'd say they have a clear advantage in defence and midfield with players like Arboleda, Gancarczyk, Bosacki, Stilic and Peszko. The bad news for Lech is the weather in Azerbaijan (exp. over 35 degrees Celsius). In fact for a couple of days we struggle in Poland to get by with similar weather :gimmebut certainly Lech is not used to play 90 minutes in such conditions. The good thing is that Lech is an experienced team with great coaching and managership. In recent years the original sin of Polish team who attended UEFA cups was that they underestimated opponents from "weaker" leagues. The best example is last year Wisla's blackout vs. Levadia Tallin. But you can't teach an old dog new tricks so it was almost impossible to motivate a bunch of old and complacent Wisla's "stars" to perform at their normal level. The same mistake won't be repeated in Lech. They are still hungry for international success and all parties (players, coach and management) know that. And a few words on Lewandowski's case. IMHO it is better to let player go if he wishes to and make some room for new faces than force him to stay and watch him walking across the pitch. To sum up - don't get excited about Baku's ability to upset Lech :dude. Could be a low scoring affair but I trust Lech to come out with a narrow win or a draw (may be scoreless) at least.

I know where you're coming from but Azerbaijan is a tough venue for any travelling side. Lech may have hungry players but they're not a vastly experienced side in Europe. Inter are pretty well-off financially as is shown with the number of their foreign players and thus they're not your average ex-Soviet Union side although they do have the advantage in playing in those intimidating environments ;) I have no doubts over the quality of Lech; only their ability to score without Lewandowski. I expect the hosts to score at least once because they're a good home side, simply, so Lech have to score at least two to win this one in my opinion - will they do it? It's possible but I doubt it. Wichinarek is not the answer to their problems although Rudnevs certainly would be if they sign him - I've not had any updates about his signing though, hopefully one of you Polish guys can enlighten me? :)

[ewana]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July Lech actually had a very good run in the Europa League 2 seasons ago where they reached the last 32 and narrowly lost 4-3 on agg to Udinese. They beat Feynoord along the way that year. Last season they gave Fredrikstad in Norway a 6-1 hammering in their first match but went out on pens to Club Brugge in the next round. Those Europa games might be worth considering if deciding to bet on the Inter v Lech match. Its a hard one to predict.

[Jase82]

Re: UEFA Champions League > 13th - 14th July AC Omonia Nicosia v FK Renova + 1.75 @ 2.38 - Canbet. I think here it's clear that Omonia are expected to win this fixture, but I have my doubts as to whether it will be as easy as the odds suggest. Renova are the current Macedonian champions, and managed to keep their European fixture against Dinamo Minsk tight last year. Both sides haven't started their seasons yet, so will be lacking in competitive football. It's supposed to be 36 - 38 degrees today in Nicosia, so conditions may be difficult, and because of a lack of match fitness on both sides, could play a part in deciding the outcome.