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Everything posted by Mozzi

  1. Re: Sweden > Allsvenskan > 2012 Laugh attacks! The worst week I've ever had in the Allsvenskan bar none. Unbelievable. You won't see AIK bag five in a game again this season, nor Hacken produce such a poor home display. Oh well - that's how it goes sometimes, I guess!
  2. Re: Sweden > Allsvenskan > 2012 I don't like Atvidaberg vs Kalmar FF today - too many variables. The rest, though - they appeal to me. Hacken vs Djurgarden - hosts should beat the -1 Asian Handicap. There's not as much between the two sides as the league placings suggest, in my view, but Hacken are scoring goals, Djurgarden are missing regular defender Pedersen, and Djurgarden's heads dropped for the first time this season against Gefle in their last match, not even attemping to score with 30 minutes remaining. DIF welcome back Keene, which helps them, but they'll have to obtain some
  3. Re: Stoke v Wolves > 7 April I think we might see a strong Stoke win here. They don't have to win, true, but when have you ever seen a Pulis side lie down and take it at home? I never have. It's not so much that Wolves are conceding but it's how they're conceding the goals that matters. The vast majority are from bad defending from set pieces and guess what Stoke are really, really good at? Set pieces! Wolves may nick a goal; that's ok. I expect Stoke to score at least 2 or 3 here though so the -1 Asian Handicap on Stoke looks really generous as I don't forsee Stoke doing anything but wi
  4. Re: La Liga - 11-13 February FT Espanyol 0 Real Zaragoza 2. This should be a great example for you as to why to not bet on statistics. Even if you didn't bet on the game, the fact that Zaragoza are improving coupled with Espanyol's overbearing absentees should be more than enough to persuade you to not bet on this game.
  5. Re: La Liga - 11-13 February Yes - avoid betting on this game, especially if you don't know anything about either side! Malaga have lots of good players but they're not a team yet. I can count the number of times on one hand that they've actually played well this season. They have the quality in their individuals to win them any game but they aren't working as a team so when they concede, they tend to lose their minds a bit and not win the game. That's why they end up losing so many away games - they fall behind and have no idea how to get back into the game. Mallorca are playing well
  6. Re: La Liga - 11-13 February I disagree. I think this is a trap rather than a banker. Having seen both sides play lately, I wouldn't put Espanyol at 1.65 against anyone. Not only is this side notorious for not scoring goals but they've got a huge striker shortage up front for varying reasons. A side that averages scoring just over one goal per home game is never a "banker" for me because it generally means that the side in question conceding can easily result in the bet losing. I like Espanyol at home. I'd never take them at less than 1.90 though for reasons listed above. They're hard
  7. Re: La Liga - 11-13 February No, it's not a mistake. The bookies clearly watch these two sides playing which it's evident that you don't if you think that Bilbao should be at 2.30 here. First thing - Bilbao operate at 50% outside of the Basque country. That's just how it is. That's why they've won just three away games this season. Second thing - Bilbao don't keep clean sheets. Bielsa's attacking football is attractive but they can and do concede against anyone. Third thing - Herrera is out, forcing Bilbao's game into wide men only. This is normally where they dominate anyway but the
  8. Re: African Nations Cup - 23/24 January Not my day today! It took Niger nearly the whole of the first-half to settle their nerves and be comfortable on the ball and by then the damage was done. I feel robbed by the Morocco game though - they dominated Tunisia from start to finish but conceded a soft goal from a set piece and a soft counter-attack in the second half. Still, an inspired display from the Tunisian goalkeeper and wayward finishing from Morocco is to blame here.
  9. Re: African Nations Cup - 23/24 January I'm a bit short on time so here are some early thoughts: Gabon vs Niger - Gabon look really short here. Yeah, they're hosts and home advantage counts moreso in this competition than any other, in my view. However, they're not a great side by any stretch of the imagination and Niger are in this tournament because they were a nightmare to beat for sides better than Gabon. For me, Niger +1 AH at 2.00 is worth a punt. Morocco vs Tunisia - tight game between two sides with little firepower. Both sides have strong midfields but I'd favour Morocco over Tun
  10. Re: African Nations Cup 21st-22nd January I fancy under 2.5 goals in Ivory Coast vs Sudan. Yeah, Ivory Coast are a lot better etc. etc. and to be honest I think they will win the tournament now that there are no North African sides of any significant quality to dump them out. However, Sudan are one of a few sides in this tournament that are very hard to play against and the only way this game will be easy for Ivory Coast will be if Sudan bottle it, have a man sent off, or concede an early goal. African Nations games are not notorious for being high-scoring and let's not forget that this is
  11. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 7th December Statements like this really, really amuse me. Nothing against you, Rayno - many people have said it - but yours was the first I came across on this thread. Let me tell you a bit about Hernandez. Hernandez is a very gifted finisher. His ability to score in a nano second from any available opportunity is just remarkable and it's no surprise that people are talking about him a lot as a result. However, like they do with Falcao from Atletico Madrid, they all get very carried away because of his goalscoring record and they ignore the fa
  12. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 7th December Dinamo Zagreb miss three-quarters of their regular back four tonight and Lyon must win by a large number of goals to progress. That's why the odds are long and it's why I find it unlikely that your bet will win. Good luck if you take it.
  13. Re: Spain - La Liga - 15-17 October That's interesting - Martinez keeps being played at centre-back so not much of a threat to the opposition. In fact, he's more often a threat to his own team in that position. Bielsa is shuffling players out-of-position so there is nothing "well-balanced" about them here - they just attack and hope for the best. This is a derby, incidentally - derbies are usually tight. I'm curious, though - what makes you think Osasuna will be better placed than last year?
  14. Re: Spain - La Liga - 17-18 September Lots of brave guys backing Bilbao here - best of luck to you. I follow Bilbao as best I can and have done for some years now. I was excited about the arrival of Bielsa but upon seeing what he's done to the team, I am no longer as keen. Perhaps it'll work in time, I don't know, but I can say for sure that he doesn't have the measure of Bilbao's style yet. Bielsa has been playing some kind of crazy 3-5-2 system and rarely fields more than two actual defenders per game. They look vulnerable to pace and good movement at the back, which is a problem in the
  15. Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 6 September Why can't they beat Ireland at the Aviva? I hope there's no green blinkers there, mate :) Ireland have better depth than Armenia, it's true. They have a world-class manager too, not to mention some very experienced and able players. However, to underestimate the current Armenia crop is nothing short of stupid. I've watched these guys for the past twelve months now and they really do bring a great attacking threat. Defensively - they've got problems; only Hovsepyan holds things together and they can concede. That attack, though - Movsisyan, Ma
  16. Re: U21 EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFICATION De Jong isn't with the U21s tonight, from what I hear. Agree with the bet though.
  17. Re: UEFA Europa League > Thurs 18 August Fulham destroy sides at home? Eh? I watched them at home against NSI Runavik from the Faroe Islands and there was barely anything in it! Kudos to Fulham for taking the few chances they actually carved out but it was anything but a destruction. I think Fulham look a bit more defensive than normal and their attacking game isn't flourishing as a result. They are strong at home, sure, but at those odds I wouldn't touch them. If you don't know much about a side then I really wouldn't bet for/against them and that's clealy the case if you think
  18. Re: Euro 2012 Qualifier & International Friendlies > 7-11 August You need to do more homework, mate. Belgium miss Hazard, Miralles, Dembele, Defour, Vermaelen, Vertonghen, Van Damme, Chadli, Ogunjimi, De Sutter, Ciman, and Vanden Borre. That means all their creativity is going through Witsel and a bunch of kids are up front, none of which have more than 9 caps to their name. Belgium is a team with potential, not current ability - people often confuse those two things greatly. Belgium are also terribly inconsistent, which isn't a big surprise considering that the nucleus of their
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