Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts)

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Not having the greatest of weeks here. Bit of a losing sequence building up, and I need to get a winner soon before the thread really does go backwards.... One runner today, at Bath, and he stands a good chance. Bet 40 - COOL STRIKE - Bath - 15.50 Seems to go well on fast ground, and with a visor - both of which he has today, Cool Strike can continue the Balding yards good run of form, and get this thread back to winning ways. Placed 5 out of 9 runs, and with 2 wins - Cool Strike has a healthy level stakes profit to his name. Cool Strike has already won once at Bath, under the ride of Liam Keniry, who takes the ride again today. The trip looks ideal, and Cool Strike should have enough ability to put in a big run from the front in here. 2pts win @ 9/4

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Cool Strike got caught on the line after running well - just about my luck at the moment. Have got to try and turn the corner, and hopefully Luca Cumani can help me out tomorrow... Bet 41 - CYGNET - Nottingham - 19.05 Luca Cumani and Fallon teamed up to win the closing race at Windsor tonight, and hopefully they can strike again here tomorrow. A disrupted season last year saw Cygnet unable to put a decent run of form together. However, he did show us that he is capable of winning races, and if he has been prepared for this one, then he should have the ability to win again. Luca Cumani has identified Cygnet as being his stables dark horse this season, so it will be interesting to see where he places him in the future. This looks like a reasonable task for Cygnet to meet as a seasonal debut, and he should run well, with the stable in form. Hopefully, we can see a return to winning ways here. 2pts win

[bowles10]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 i fancy Cygnet also Alex, i know you mentioned it earlier but Cumani's recent form has swayed me onto it :ok it will be my only bet tomorrow

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 :hope I could do with him winning!

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Cygnet didn't win.... Really hitting the skids here now. Two more today, each way shots with a chance of making the frame. I could really do with a winner, going into the busy Guineas weekend...

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 42 - STRIKING SPIRIT - Musselburgh - 16.00 Sprint king trainer Dandy Nichlls saddles two in the race, and Striking Spirit appears to be second string, on jockey booking. However, he still has an excellent chance of scoring on his seasonal debut, just as he did last year. He has been stepped down in trip here, but I do still think he has the early speed to bag this. I am a bit gutted the each way places are only 1/2, but thats just the way it goes. It will be interesting to see how he fares in the small field, as he is used to the hustle and bustle of big fields, but it could well play into his hands, and at 8/1, and each way bet is the way to go. 1pt E/W @ 8/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 43 - SAFARI SUNUP - Lingfield - 16.55 Placed in 11 from 18 career races, Safari Sunup can be described in one wrd - consistent. He rarely runs a poor race, and hopefully that will be the case here in this really decent looking race. At 13/2, Safari Sunup is an each way bet for the thread, but with a field of 9 going to post, and therefore 3 places on the each way terms, I am confident of seeing some form of return. Although he has never won on the AW, he has been placed a number of times, and if he is stripped fitter as a result of his first run of the season last moth, then he can more than make his presence felt here. 1pt E/W @ 13/2

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Striking Spirit - 2nd at 10/1.... Thats a little bit better, now, just need that elusive winner!

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Another 2nd place, Safari Sunup 8/1....

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 43 Places - 8 Wins - 9 Lost - 26 Bank - 218pts P/L - +18pts

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Ok, so 8 of my list go to post for the 2000 Guineas, and it is obvious that with level stakes there is almost no way of making a profit, with St Nicholas Abbey such a short price favourite, if he were to win, I would also need to have big priced E/W bets coming in 2nd and 3rd. As a result of this, I am simply selecting 2 from my list, and will back them to level stakes. Fingers crossed I do not leave out a big priced winner.... :hope:hope:hope

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 44 - RASHAAD - Newmarket - 16.50 Sheik Hamdan always has a fantastic array of talnt t his disposal, and one he is very keen on is Rashaad. Seen just once last year, he fought back gamely to win at Doncaster with relative ease. Seen as being a fairly small 2 year old, the stable are reporting that he has progressed a great deal since then, and he really does appear to be a top class horse. He will, apparantly, be quite heavily campaigned this season, as he needs his racing, so it would be no surprise to see him out a number of occasions, and hopefully winning a fair few times too. The 1m2f trip looks ideal for him, and that is what he gets tomorrow. A winning reappearance is expected. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 45 - AMOUR PROPRE - Newmarket - 15.40 A really exciting prospect, and a really fast looking horse.... Only raced 7 times, resulting in 4 wins, Amour Propre reappears here tomorrow in a cracking looking race. The ground should be set perfect for Amour Propre tomorrow, and with him winning this race last year, the stable clearly know how to get him ready first time out. Borderlescott and Equiano are respected, but it is Amour Propre who I really fancy to be a bit of a sprinting King this season. 2pts win @ 3/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 46 and 47 - 2000 Guineas - Newmarket - ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL and FENCING MASTER Seeing as I am discounting 6 horses from my list, I am really going for the value bets. St Nicholas Abbey could well be a superstar in the making, all the right things have been quoted from the stable about him, and he certainly does seem an exciting horse, based on his 2 year old form alone. However, for this, I think he is just a little too short, and there are plenty more who appeal at bigger prices. Firstly, Elusive Pimpernel. Second run of the year after his win at the Craven meeting, Elusive Pimpernel was second best to St Nicholas Abbey last season, but that run came on slow ground, and on better ground I think that race would have been far closer. Elusive Pimpernel seemed to have filled out, and trained on well when slamming the field on his reappearance. If he has progressed further since then, then it would be foolish to discount his chances. Eddie Ahern gets back in the saddle tomorrow, and he knows the horse well - he has been the subject of very bullish comments this week, and with the Ballydoyle horse seemingly a world beater, it is easy to get a larger price then I expected about Elusive Pimpernel. Fencing Master may well be the Ballydoyle second string on paper, but that will not stop him from winning if the opportunity arises. He is certainly not in this race as any sort of pacemaker, and in actual fact has some very good form to his name. Once again, if it were not for St Nicholas Abbey, Fencing Master would be half the price. He is more than capable of running a big race here. His second in the Dewhurst looks great form, and again, as with all of these 3 year olds - if he has trained on well over the winter then there is every prospect that he could be good enough to win this. 2 x 1pt E/W bets Elusive Pimpernel @ 7/1 Fencing Master @ 14/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Well, I have literally not been at my flat since Friday , and have not had the opportunity to post up the selections since then. I have backed each horse on the list that has ran since, and have fared alright. I will post up the bets I have not been able to write up later on, and hope that people will understand that I am going to include the figures in the P/L, as I have actually followed the thread to the rule. I do not like missing up on write us, but in this case it was unavoidable... Will update later, hopefully after Fame and Glory has won in Ireland.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 47 Places - 8 Wins - 9 Lost - 30 Bank - 210pts P/L - +10pts That is the running P/L after the Saturday of Guineas weekend, which was a really poor day for the thread. Since then, the following horses have turned out for the thread: 14.05 - Chiberta King - 12/1 - finished 2nd 14.40 - Strawberrydaiquiri - 11/8 - finished 1st 15.20 - Special Duty - 9/2 - finished 1st 15.20 - Rumoush - 7/1 - unplaced 17.05 - Principal Role - 11/8 - unplaced 14.45 - Free Judgement - 10/3 - finished 1st 16.15 - Fame and Glory - 3/10 - finished 1st Bets - 54 Places - 9 Wins - 13 Lost - 32 Bank - 228pts P/L - 28pts So, after a really hectic weekend the P/L is looking slightly more respectable. Things have calmed right down for me now, and I am looking forward to getting back into the swing of things with the thread. Looking forward to the Chester meeting, and I have 2 running tomorrow, one of which I am afraid has been handed a terrible draw in the big race.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 55 - GERTRUDE BELL - Chester - 14.15 Gertrude Bell is sent here by John Gosden in decent form. She is progressing nicely, and has an Oaks entry which seems to indicate that connections think she is capable of far better things than she has shown already. Her last race, at Newbury resulted in her winning nicely and although this represents a step up in class, with her progressive profile she could well be there at the end tomorrow. She has never been out of the places, in 4 races so far, and although only 7 go to post here tomorrow, I think she will find herself in the frame again. 2pts win @ 11/4

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 56 - BERNIE THE BOLT - Chester - 14.45 Handed a nightmare draw here, but may have enough class to make the frame. It will be a fantastic effort to win from the draw, but by no means an impossibility. With a really progressive look to him, Bernie The Bolt is nothing but consistent. He took a couple of runs to get the hang of things as a 3 year old, but when things clicked he did not finish unplaced in 6 races, with 2 wins to his name. He certainly gets the trip, as he showed in the 2m2f trial race at Newmarket last September, and although this is a vastly different type of track, if he gets the right breaks, he should be pressing on at the end. 1pt win E/W @ 9/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 56 Places - 9 Wins - 14 Lost - 33 Bank - 231pts P/L - 31pts Gertrude Bell wins nicely today. The draw beat Bernie The Bolt, who I am certain will win races this season.

[RussP]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Good winner today with Gertrude Bell. Looked to me to win a shade cosily and worth taking her chance in the Oaks:ok I think Bertie The Bolt is a horse to keep on the right side of but couldn't believe how short it was in the betting today from an awful draw. There will be definitely be other days, I'm sure of that.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 57 - FASTNET STORM - Chester - 17.05 14 go to post for the days closing handicap, and Fastnet Storm lines up with a decent chance of making the frame. Very consistent last year, he did not act over too short a trip on his first run this season. He should have come on for that, leaving him in good condition for this outing. Being handed Stall 4 has given him every chance with the draw, and if he gets the breaks you need round here then a place is the least he should be looking for. 1pt E/W

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 58 and 59 - OPUS MAXIMUS AND JESSE JAMES - Ffos Las - 19.30 I really hope that we do not have any non runners in this race, as at the moment, the 8 entries mean great each way terms for these 2 selections. The market has not formed properly on Betfair yet, and it is too early for any SPs, so for now, I am advising both of these as each way bets. I do, however, think that Opus Maximus may go off the shorter of the two. Jesse James is an unexposed handicapper, who won for Gosden last year, switching stables has not bought on any improvement, but he appears to be the progressive type who may have needed his last run. If that has blown away the cobwebs, and he is fitter this time out, then he should put in a bold show under Steve Drowne. Opus Maximus is slightly more exposed, despite also only winning once last year, but he is expected to win more races this year, and should show he is a decent horse in this one tomorrow. Like Jesse James, he has not been seen much this season, only finishing 5th last time out. Similarly to Jesse James, he should have come on since then, and it is going to be very difficult to see him finishing down the field in this one. 2 x 1pt E/W bets (this may be changed when it comes to seeing SPs tomorrow)

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 59 Places - 9 Wins - 14 Lost - 36 Bank - 225pts P/L - 25pts 3 very poor efforts today see 3 losers :(

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 61 and 62 - AZMEEL and DANCING DAVID - Chester 14.15 The Chester meeting is proving to be a poor one for the thread, but hopefully we can get things back on track tomorrow in the 14.15, where 2 runners go to post. Judging by early prices, the 2 horses in question will be the market leaders, and will both be backed to win. Firstly, Dancing David. He ran a good race in the Craven, and seemingly will enjoy this step up in trip. He seemed to be staying on well in the 1 mile contest and that should have got him right for this. That was his best race to date, and arguably he will have to further improve to bag this one, as there are some smart Derby entrants engaged in this heat. One of particular interest is Azmeel. Azmeel ran well at Sandown in the Classic trial last month, finishing second behind Chabal. That was also his best performance to date, and with that being his first run of the season, he should have stripped even fitter for this one. There is every chance that these two will fill the places, although there are a number of other interesting entrants in the form of: Desert Myth and Tamaathul. 2 x 2pts win bets, each at 11/4

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 63 - SAFINA - Chester 15.55 A really well bred filly this, who is of particular interest in this race after running well in the Nell Gwyn. With Music Show 'winning' her side of the 1000 Guineas, the form has been boosted, and the fact that she drops back down to Maiden company would suggest she will have an easier time of it tomorrow. Likely to be a short price, but having shaped well in both her runs so far, she deserves to be. 2pts win @ 8/13

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 64 - EMBSAY CRAG - Chester 17.05 Having already won twice round the Roodee, Embsay Crag really catches the eye in the finale. Really progressive in handicaps last year, Embsay Crag has ran well on two occasions this season, finishing second each time. With the course form under his belt a bold show should be expected, and there is every chance that he can make it a hat trick of Chester wins. Drawn in stall 5, he has a decent draw, and stands every chance. 1pt E/W @ 9/2

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010

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Bets - 64 Places - 9 Wins - 16 Lost - 38 Bank - 231pts P/L - 31pts

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 65 and 66 - TIMEPIECE and CEILIDH HOUSE - Lingfield 14.40 Two go to post for todays's Oaks trial, and as with the race at Chester yesterday, they are going to fill the first 2 places in the market. The favourite, and rightly so, will be Timepiece. Her antepost price for the big one has tumbled to just 7/1, actually making her favourite for the Epsom race, this despite her only finishing 4th on her seasonal reappearance. That was over an inadequate 9f though, and the up in trip will play into her hands here today. A big showing is expected from the ante post favourite, and is she does win convincingly then expect her odds to be trimmed in further still. Ceilidh House is the second of my horses to follow this race. She does not have quite as much form or experience as Timepiece, but her sole start to date saw her win a decent looking 8f Nottingham maiden. She is lightly raced, and it is highly unlikely that we have sen anywhere near what she is capable of. From a stable who traditionally do very well in the race, she has to be feared. 2pts win Timepiece @ 8/11 1pt E/W Ceilidh House @ 3/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 67 - CAPTAIN JAMES COOK - Lingfield - 15.10 Ballydoyle are not in great form at the moment, and it is unusual to see their first string in a 7 runner trial race at odds of 5/1. They have to turn the corner at some point, and if that point is today, then that 5/1 could prove to be massive come 15.15. An e/w bet is advised on Captain james Cook, despite their only being the 7 runners in the race. He was smart when winning an AW race at Dundalk last month, staying on very gamely after hitting the front. He does face some tougher rivals here however, mainly in the form of Desert Myth. But is Captain james Cook is the horse that Ballydoyle think he is, then he should very much have a say in this race. The stable form is a concern, but this horse has already won this season, and may be slightly further ahead than some of the others in the yard. 1pt E/W @ 5/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 68 - ASTROPHYSICAL JET - Nottingham - 15.30 Despite just having 3 career starts, Astrophysical Jet has already got a course and distance win under her belt. She is lightly raced, with just 3 starts, and that remains her sole win. However, her last 2 races have seen her put in decent peformances at Group level, with her latest run, at Newmarket in October seeing her finish 5th behind Music Show. She will have to have come on from that form to win this listed contest, but that is entirely possible, and she should have a decent chance here if she is race fit, at rewarding odds. 1pt E/W