Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts)

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 42 - WESTERN PRIZE - Kempton - 19.45 - 1pt E/W @ 5/1 A pretty hot looking race this, and one in which there are a number of interesting runners. One that stands out as possibly having a great deal more to come is Western Prize. One of 5 last time out winners, Western Prize comes here after winning well when sent off odds on favourite on his debut. That was over 1m at Lingfield, and he won well, going away - indicating that the extra 4 furlongs he tackles here tonight should be well within his range. He is bred to get this distance, and should have come on further for his debut. Certainly has a good chance of making the frame, so an each way bet at 5/1 looks to be well worth a shot. 1pt E/W

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 43 - MASHATU - 21.15 Kempton - 1pt E/W@ 5/1 Another runner I fancy this evening at Kempton is Mashatu. He has been unlucky on his previous 2 runs, where he has ran well to finish 2nd at Yarmouth. He is bred to act well on the AW however, and he is given a chance on that surface this evening. Although he is still a maiden, he has ran well throughout his 6 race career, and he is sure to get his nose ahead soon. Last time out, he was beaten close to home by an excellent ride from Fallon (who was riding a horse a mate of mine owns). Thnat horse is watch Chain, and he is said to be working very well at home. He is highly thought of, so the form is strong and I think that the price of 5/1 represents fair value. Again, an each way bet. 1pt E/W

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 44 - SEA MOON - 3.50 - YORK - 2pts win @ EVS (vcbet) Sea Moon was heavily punted for this years Derby in the ante post markets, before eventually being removed from the entries. There was nothing in particular wrong with the horse, only connections thought that he had progressed too slowly to be entered in the Epsom showpiece. He is most probably still not at 100% levels of performance, and this is most probably why we see him here, entered in a handicap. Clearly, this horse is not a handicapper, but a very impressive Group performer, who will surely win some very nice prizes in the months to come. He is entered in the King George at Ascot, aswell as the Irish Derby, and it would shock me if he were not to win this very average looking race on route to competing in either of those Group races. Clearly, he is not under the radar, but a well known horse from very well known connections. As a result, we are not going to be seeing any fancy prices about him. However there may well be some bookies willing to take him on, and anything above EVEN money must be viewed as being a very decent value bet indeed. He is far and away the least unexposed horse in the field, and as already mentioned, is expected to blossom into a top drawer race horse. The Hills runner should be viewed as being the main threat to Sea Moon, but I really cannot see any other winner in this race. Unoriginal as it may be, sometimes short prices do offer tremendous value, and I think we have that here in the shape of SEA MOON. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 45 - Sandown 1.55 – VOODOO PRINCE - 2pts win @ 11/4 (Coral) Another horse who is short in the market, but at the 3.15 price available on Betfair as I type, one to be onside with. Voodoo Prince learned a great deal from his racecourse debut, when he finished 6th of 13 at Newbury. This race has become one of the hottest ran at Newbury so far this season, with Colombian (finished 3rd) going on to well and truly frank the form with his excellent show in the French Derby last weekend. The purpose of that exercise was to let him become familiar with the race course, and get to grips with stalls, preliminaries, and of course – the race itself. Clearly, the penny dropped for his next run and he won very well at Haydock – where Fallon steered him home to win nicely, at odds of 9/4. Tomorrow, he takes on handicappers for the first time, and should well prove that he is a horse to follow for the remainder of the season. The son of the great Ouija Board, will surely progress through the ranks of racing over the years, and if he becomes even half as famous as Ouija Board then I am sure his connections will be thrilled. Dettori takes the ride tomorrow, and despite not covering himself in glory in the Oaks, is still the best jockey in the UK. I am very keen indeed on VOODOO PRINCE tomorrow, and am advising a win bet on him. I also advise you to keep a very close eye on his progress, se and distance winner, and has also won first time out at big as I suspect that he will turn out to be a top quality prospect. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 46 - York 2.10 – TRIP THE LIGHT - 1pt E/W @ 16/1 This selection is based on the fact that stable are flying, and also the fact that the selection, TRIP THE LIGHT is a course winner, and has won first time out, at big odds before. Now, despite this being a bit of a dreadful contest, as the Lady Amateur Riders races usually are, it does not mean that we cannot think a horse is worth a good bet. Trip The Light is forecast to be 8/1, and this represents tremendous each way value. As I have just mentioned, last year, Trip The Light won first time out, despite being a double figure price. That day he was also steered by an amateur jockey, claiming 7lbs.Infact, he has twice won for amateur riders before in his career. The stable are very shrewd with their jockey bookings, and despite not being a household name, Miss T Syddall, will be more than competent. Fahey would not have it any other way. With a strike rate of 25% in his career (10 wins from 40 runs), and a further 8 places – we can see that the horse is nothing but consistent. With 2 of his wins also coming at York, we can see that he goes well at the track, and knows how to win here. It is a difficult track for some horses to get infront at, and if he does get a clean break tomorrow, then there is every chance of him running into the money. Each way bets will return 4 places, and is you search around, some bookies may go 5 places. I do think that the race is of very average quality, but Trip The Light stands out as being a likely player. An each way bet is advised. 1pt E/W

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 47 - TIDDLIWINKS - Cork 3.35 - 2pts win @ 2/1 I am convinced that Tiddliwinks has the potential and ability to win decent races this year. After progressing through the handicapping ranks last year, we have seen 2 decent efforts when stepped up in class. Firstly, a 40/1 place showed that he has what it takes to mix it in pattern company. This was followed up by a decent 2nd place behind Hitchens last time out, this time at Group 3 level. Today, he drops back to Listed class, and also tackles 5f for the first time. His trainer thinks he has every chance of seemingly making all, and with Inxile appearing to be the only real danger, 2/1 seems to be a fair price. There is a chance that the ground will not suit Inxile, and he has been slow away from the gate before he could lose out today if that happens, as Tiddliwinks will be trying to win this one from the front I think... 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 48 - SIGNOR VERDI - Doncaster 4.00 - 1pt E/W @ 6/1 Brian meehan knows what he is doing with 4 year old handicappers, as was hghlighted with Dangerous Midge last season. I do not think we are seeing another in that mould here, but I do think that Signor Verdi is on a winnable mark now, after a number of fairly average efforts so far this season. He has been fairly unlucky so far this season, and things have not fallen his way in races. This could have bought him back down to a mark he is capable of exploiting, and with the re-fitting of blinkers, we may see a big improvment in Signor Verdi. At 6/1, I think an each way bet appeals, as he does look capable of winning races. 1pt E/W

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 49 - GALIKOVA - French Oaks 2.30 - 2pts win @ 2/1 Half sister to Goldikova, Galikova is looking to emulate her sibling with a win in a French classic. Said to have displayed more potential than Goldikova at 2, Galikova comes here today as favourite to bag the Oaks, and has every chance of doing so. She has won the last two races, and the form of her 2 year old race has worked out really well, with Misty For Me going on to Classic success herself. Surely, a class act in the making, I am taking Galikova to win well this afternoon. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Lacking a winner in the last few weeks! Still, showing a really decent profit for the season. Have not had as much time as I would have liked for bets since Haydock, as work has been manic. Looking forward to Ascot week though - if it is anything like as profitable as it was last year then I will be happy :) Will update all the P/L after today's racing. Good luck everyone today...

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Royal Ascot week was crazy busy. Loads of stuff on so never posted anything up, came out on top (just), and have no idea how....! Some really good performances there though, and loads to take from it... Brown Panther for the Leger for one.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts) Bet 50 - DHAAMER - Ponterfract 3.40 - 2pts win @ 9/4 Was expecting this to be shorted really. I think 9/4 is a steal for this lightly raced 4 year old. Only been on track 5 occasions, and has shaped with promise on each time. His only run this year came on Oaks day, where he was a sound 3rd. Sand Skier, who finished second that day has gone on to since run very well in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot. With the Gosden yard flying at the moment, he comes here with the benefit of a run, and looks to be the progressive type to do well in his 4 year old season. Ground should be fine, and a strong chance that he will have enough about him to win this one. 2pts win