Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts)

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 13 - PASTORAL PLAYER - Newmarket 17.55 A really competitive handicap this, but one in which pastoral Player is fancied o run well in. At 5/1, he is an each way bet, paying 4 places. He won his first race at Newbry last season, when he really caught the eye by making up the ground in eyecatching fashio, but then dissappointed on 2 furth runs. The ground was against him second time out, today he is running on ground that suits. His last run saw him finish 7th of 8, but only 2 lengths behind the eventual winner. The form of that race is unreliable, and he is thought to be far better than the result suggests. Fancied to do well in big field, 1 mile handicaps this season, it would be nice to see him bounce back with a vicory here today. 1 pt E/W @ 5/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 14 - GOLD RULES - Kempton - 21.05 Thought to be capable of winning big 1 mile handicaps this year, Gold Rules starts off with a run on the all weather at Kempton, over a mile. It is a tight looking race, but reports suggest that Gold Rules has really come on from his latest run, a second at Ripon. If he takes to the AW surface then he should be a major player in this race, at odds of 9/4. His fitness has got to be taken on trust, not seen for 235 days, but Cumani can get them ready first time out, and it would be a dissappointment if he was not fighting out the finishe here today. 2pts win @ 9/4

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Principal Role places at 13/2 Rumoush wins well at 7/2 (took the 9/2)

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Rumoush getting some shorts quotes for the Oaks and Guineas now. That was a pretty impressive run there. Timepiece was blocked in 4 or 5 times there and I am not discounting her Classic chances. For the thread to return a profit today I need either of the remaining 2 runners to win.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 14 Places - 2 Wins - 4 Lost - 8 Bank - 223pts P/L - +23pts Well, yesterday was in informative day. A couple of winners at 9/2 (Rumoush) and Gold Rules at 5/2, with 2 places at 13/2 and 7/1 mean that profit is shown. Timepiece was unlucky, and I still expect her to be a major player in the classics. Mufarrh looked like he was going to place, but did not settle till late on before running on to finish 5th, a long way ahead of some decent animals, certianly one to watch next time out, especially if dropped in grade. Backing multiple selections did not pay off in the fillies race, but one of these days we will bag the 1-2-3, perhaps today, in the Craven when I have 4 selections running...

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 15,16,17 and 18 - ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL, DANCING DAVID, MONT AGEL and MARKAZZI - Newmarket - 15.35 A really good looking race this, and one in which St Nicholas Abbey fans will be keeping a close eye on, as the favourite, Elusive Pimpernel was 2nd to the Ballydoyle horse last time. Today, Elusive Pimpernel will be expected to win if he is to cement his position in the market for the upcoming classics. However, as they are clearly his main priority, he may not be fully tuned up for this race, and there is a chance that something could pip him today. With so many in the race, I really do need to get the winner and another place, at least... Elusive Pimpernel has been backed at 6/5 as a win bet, and he is the most likely winner on paper. The form of is second race victory has worked out very well, with horses like Poet, Emerald Commander and Vale of York all going on to frank the form of Elusive Pimpernel's victory. His second to St Nicholas Abbey is potentially his best run yet however, and if he has trained on then he will be very hard to beat here today. Dancing David was 4th in the Racing Post ttrophy, and he re-opposes Elusive Pimpernel here today. Prior to that, Dancing David won a very useful looking maiden at Newmarket, beating Taamathul cosily that day. Again, if this one has trained on, he has the chance to go to the top, but it will be a tough act to beat Elusive Pimpernel today. Mont Agel looks like being a hrad horse to place. This trip of 8f may be slightly inadequate for him, and we may see him performing better over the middle distances. However, he has an entry for this, and he does stand a chance of making the frame. A useful looking win at Windsor shows he knows what it takes to win, and although this is certainly a step up in class he does still have a Derby entry, so must be highly regarded by connections. He looks to be too large a price today for this. Lastly, Markazzi is possibly Elusive Pimpernel's main rival today. He is lightly raced, but id from a family who will certainly improve with age. He does have experience at the track, but he did not run to is potential when encountering traffic problems here last time. He should be able to show that he is better than that run suggests here today. His trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, though a great deal of his as a 2 year old, and the fact that he is deemed good enough to take on the likes of Elusive Pimpernel here today suggests that he thinks there is more to come from him. Elusive Pimpernel - 2pts win @ 6/5 Dancing David - 1pt E/W @ 6/1 Markazzi - 1pt E/W @ 9/1 Mont Agel - 1pt E/W @ 14/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 19 - PALAVICINI - Newmarket 16.10 This trip looks ideal for the consistent Palavicini. At 5/1, and with 8 runners he rates as being a 'perfect' each way bet, but I would argue that he does have what it takes to win this one. Tranquil Tiger has been on the go for a while, and he may just be caught out by a fresher horse. With grund conditions to his liking, Palavicini does look like an each way bet to nothing. He boasts both course and distance form, and has a decent place strike rate, 7 times in 11 outings. I am confident that he has enough class to make the frame here again. 1pt E/W @ 5/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 19 Places - 4 Wins - 5 Lost - 10 Bank - 223pts P/L - +23pts

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 20 - RASMY - Newbury - 15.15 Has all the fancy entries, but the stable seem to be somewhat doubtful on him staying the 12 f trup. He is still, however, a decent animal who could turn out to be from the very top drawer. His second run resulted in a victory at bath, despite him being very 'babyish', if he has filled out over the winter then he could have made a good deal of progression and should be able to take a race like this, particularly if he is to compete in any of the classics this year. Tregining has highlighted Rasmy as being his dark horse for the season, and I will take that to mean he thinks he has the potential to win a good number of races, hopefully starting tomorrow at Newbury. 1pt E/W

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 21 - GERTRUDE BELL - Newbury - 17.30 Still a maiden after 3 races, but has shaped as though a step up in trip will play into her hands. She gets this tomorrow, with the step up to 10f, and hopefully this will bring with it a victory. From the Gosden yard, she does look like being above average, and although this maiden does look quite competitive, the step up in trip should help her bag the win. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 21 Places - 4 Wins - 6 Lost - 11 Bank - 226pts P/L - +26pts

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 22 - CAPTAIN JAMES COOK - Dundalk - 21.25 He is held in high opinion at Ballydoyle, but did not really live up to their expectations on his first run. Not seen since finishing lame that day, Captain James Cook returns to the racecourse today at Dundalk in this small field maiden. Behtarini does appear to have far better form in the book, but it is hard to ignore Captain James Cook, who has been responsible for some positive mutterings from Ballydoyle. They do seem like they are needing the run this season, but at 9/4, there could be a bit of value in what is effectively a 2 horse race, with the betting being 12/1 bar the front two in the market. 2pts win @ 9/4

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Captain James Cook wins nicely, at 3/1. Thats some pretty good form he has bagged there, as Behtarini had form lines with the Derby fancy Jan Vermeer.... Bets - 22 Places - 4 Wins - 7 Lost - 11 Bank - 232pts P/L - +32pts

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 23 - EMBSAY CRAG - 18.50 - Doncaster Kate Walton sends this handicap specialist to Doncaster tomorrow for his second run of the season. He appears to still be fairly well treated, and he can continue to pay his way. From 17 career runs he is +£16 level stakes, a decent return when you look at the type of races he has been competing in. Should be right up to this after his seasonal debut on 27th March, where he was a decent 2nd of 12 here at Doncaster. The claiming jockey has won on him before, and takes a useful 5lbs off him tomorrow. A bold show expected. 1pt E/W @ 10/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 24 - TENESSEE - 13.30 - Newbury An enormous horse who caught my eye in a maiden at Newbury last season. Dancing David won that race and has franked the form, finishing second to Elusive Pimpernel earlier in the week, and he is now being aimed at the French Derby. Tennessee is maybe not up to that standard, but he was only beatne 4 lengths into 3rd on his debut, and if he has wintered as well as reported, he could be very hard to beat in this race tomorrow. 2pts win @ 9/4

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 25 and 26 - AKMAL and MANIFEST - 14.00 - Newbury Two go to post here, and it is hard to separate them Akmal is seriosuly consistent, with 7 wins from 14 career starts, He seems to be building himself a career as being a a tough horse to beat, and is actually seeking a 5 timer here. Seemingly at home over the 2 mile trip, he has also won well at this distance, and the fact that he is 10/1 (Forecasted) came somewhat as a surprise to me here. He is very tough and honest, and although this does represent somewhat of a step up in class, it would be foolish to rule him out. Manifest is the second horse to go to post for me in this race. Lightly races, and finished behind Akmal last time out, however, he should be unexposed and there should be plenty more to come from him. Henry Cecil seems to be coming into a bit of form in the last 2 weeks, and there would be absolutely no surprises if he has got Manifest ready to win on his seasonal debut. Again, the odds represent an each way bet. 2 x 1pt E/W bets @ 14/1 and 6/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 27 - DEIRDRE - 15.05 - Newbury Seemingly held in high regard by John Gosden, Deirdre come to Newbury tomorrow with 2 runs and 1 victory in her career. Stepped up massively in class tomorrow, connections must have seen something over the winter to suggest she is capable of taking this Group race. Gosden identifies her as being something of a dark horse, and she could well have slipped under the radar here. I doubt she will start at anything like the forecasted odds of 14/1, but she could well be a double figure price, and in an each way bet paying 3 places, she could well represent some excellent value in this one tomorrow. 1pt E/W @ 8/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 28 and 29 - CANFORD CLIFFS and DICK TURPIN - 15.40 - Newbury A small, but select field go to post in the Greenham. Richard Hannon is bang in form, and I fancy his 2 horses to fill the places in this one. Firstly, Canford Clifs, will want to throw down an equally impressive marker as Elusive Pimpernel did earlier in the week, and he could well reverse the French form with the unbeaten Arcano. Hannon says there is no excuse for Canford Cliffs to disappoint tomorrow, and it would be very foolish to disgard him here. His Royal Ascot win was visually incredible, and the French form is questionable. Seeing him bounce back to victory here tomorrow would come as absolutely no surprise. Dick Turpin is better than his last 2 runs of last season suggest, and he has been the subject of some decent reports from Richard Hannon's stable too. Seeing him chase home Canford Cliffs would be a good reuslt for the thread, but is there a chance he could upset the favourite? The raw form suggests not, but is no beyond the realms of possibility, and if he has come on from his 2 year old season he could give the favourite a fright here. 2pts win Canford Cliffs @ 8/11 1pt E/W Dick Turpin @ 15/2

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 30 - OPUS MAXIMUS - 15.00 - Thirsk Dropping down the ratings, Opus Maximus may have returned to a winning mark here tomorrow. Heavily campaigned, with 34 career runs, the selection does not find winning easy, with 5 wins so far, but these conditions appear ideal for him to rediscover the winning form. He appears to get on well with Joe Fanning, who has steered him to 3 wins and a further 3 places from 18 runs, and the trip should also suit him tomorrow. Baring all this in mind, I think there are plenty worse each way bets tomorrow, and he does seem to represent a decent bet at what could well be double figure odds. 1pt E/W @ 8/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 30 Places - 6 Wins - 8 Lost - 16 Bank - 233pts P/L - +33pts Quick summary... All those bets and only 1pt profit! Dick Turpin won at 8/1 Manifest was placed at 5/1 Embsay Crag was placed at 10/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 31 - FAMOUS NAME - Leopardstown - 5.35 6 go to post in this listed contest, and it shold be Famous Name's to lose in my opinion. Pretty much a Group 1 horse, this represents a couple of steps down in class for his seasonal reapearance. The stable are in decent nick, having sent out 4 winners in the last week, and that must leave Famous Name with a good chance of being competitive here. The odds are quite prohibitive at 8/13, but he is the most realistic winner of the race. 2pts win @ 8/13

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Famous Name drifts, but wins for the thread at 11/10

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 32 - TRIP THE LIGHT - Epsom - 14.55 The first horse to reappear in the list this season, Trip The Light won well at Catterick 2 weeks ago, and has a decent chance of going in again here today. It is dangerous to discount any Richard Fahey runner in this sort of race, last time out saw him run to a career best mark, and that was under the inexperienced claiming jockey/ He will have to be better again to win this one though, but he looks tough, and is still open to possible improvment. The odds are 4/1, and although that should represent a win bet, I am edging on the side of caution, and going in e/w on him today. 1pt E/W @ 4/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 33 - DEAUVILLE FLYER - Beverley - 14.30 Another runner from last years list, Deauville Flyer starts the campaign in this 1m4f race at Beverley. Winning a number of times last season, Tim Easterby's charge was gelded after the final run of last year, and that could lead to a further improvment to come this year. Despite not having a run yet this season, Deauville Flyer is potentially very wel treated here, and with the stable in good form, it would not come as a surprise if he is ready to win first time out. 2pts win @ 4/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 33 Places - 6 Wins - 9 Lost - 18 Bank - 231pts P/L - +31pts Seem to be hitting the cross bar this week. Trip The Light got outpaced, and dare I say it, outclassed. Deauville Flyer had nothing to give when asked and seemed to need the run... Some interesting runners at Sandown tomorrow.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 34 and 35 - WASEET and AZMEEL - Sandown - 13.45 Great looking Group 3 action here, and 2 of my horses oppose each other. Each will be strong in the market, and will be looking to land a blow here. Firstly, Waseet. Waseet is highly regarded by Dunlop, he has thrown him in here at a decent level, after Waseet performed well last year, but did not set the world on fire. He has decent enough form in the book, but it does appear that he will have needed to come on from his 2 year old season to be competitive here. The rumours are that he has done just that, and he is now being talked about as a Group 1 horse, whether or not that comes to fruition remains to be seen however. A good win here would give him chances, but it will take quite some winning this, and his main danger could well come in the form of Azmeel. Azmeel, who still holds an entry for the Derby is an interesting runner for the Gosden yard. He won 2 decent races at Newbury and Sandown last year, before finishing down the field in the Goffs Million Mile back in September. Clearly, he was below par that day, and it looks like that run can be discounted, he is a better horse than he showed on that day. He is fancied in the market today, at odds of 7/2, and it would not be a surprise if we see a return to form from him. Azmeel - 2pts win @ 7/2 Waseet - 2pts win @ 2/1 Bet 36 - SHIPS BISCUIT - Sandown - 15.25 The favourite often runs a big race in this race, so the fact that Ships Biscuit is a 5/2 favourite at the time of writing is already a positive. What is more appealing however is the way in which she finished her only race to date, a Fillys Maiden race at Kempton. The penny seemed to drop for her in the final furlong and she was finishing best of all. Although she only came in 5th, that was an eye catching performance, and one which has led to her being talked up by the Stoute yard. If she shows that sort of form again here today, then she could win this one well. 2 pts win @ 11/4

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 37 - BORDER PATROL - Sandown - 15.45 A classy horse, who ran in some very decent races last year. He comes into his 4 year old season after slightly disappointing in his final 2 runs of last season, but he is potentially a top class horse. He does appear to need a little bit of cut in the ground to be at his most effective, so questions hang over whether he is meeting his optimum conditions at Sandown today. They have watered the track twice this week, so there is still hope that the ground has not gone too fast for him. He does run against some very decent animals today however, and he would have to be at the top of his game to win this one, a place, however, is well within his reach, at odds of 10/1. 1pt E/W @ 10/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 38 - THEY THINK ITS ALL OVER - Haydock 19.35 A horse who still holds a Derby entry, he is clearly a classy individual, but is probably not up to that standard. He is however, capable of winning a race of this calibre. He has only raced twice, and he has still seemed to be a bit green in those races. He was staying on really well win winning his 2nd race, at Hamilton, and this indicates that he may well be more effective over a longer trip. Saying that, this race does look quite week, and he has been installed the 11/4 favourite. 2pts win @ 11/4

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 39 - GREEN LIGHTNING - Leicester - 15.00 Mark Johnston does well with his 3 year olds, and Green Lightning is a horse to follow this season. Already with a decent run under his belt this season, he should be ready for this one, and the further step up in trip will also play into his hands. This looks like it may be somewhat of a tactical affair, and each of the 5 runners stands a decent enough chance. I was surprised to see the price of 4/1 about Green Lightning this morning however, and think that he is a strong contender here. 2pts win @ 4/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 33 Places - 6 Wins - 9 Lost - 24 Bank - 219pts P/L - +19pts