alexmac Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) I have got a few mate. Let me know if you need one ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Cheers :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Yeah mate. Plus I have got a half day that day so it works perfectly :) will shout you on the day alex if i get there, cheers its only down the road so hope to get there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bet 3 - Yarmouth 3.05 - MASHATU - 1pt e/w Has received a very workable handicap mark for the season, and his yard are the type who will get the most out of horses like Mashatu. He looked to have been progressing throughout last season, never running disgracefully, but always had the look of a horse for this year. The trip should be ideal, as he is bred to be a miler, and if the ground does not get too firm then he should have a decent chance of making the frame. 1pt e/w Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) I should highlight the fact that I almost always use Vc Bet, for BOG, just saves me from typing it onto each individual bet. Obviously, there are occaisions when this will change, these will be flagged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bet 4 - DANDINO - JOCKEY CLUB STAKES - 2pts win @ 5/2 DANDINO is a tissue price of 3/1, and if he is anywhere near that price come the off then he is arguably the bet of the whole meeting. He is a very classy type, who showed immense progress last season. He was a Royal Ascot winner, before heading to the international scene and competing in the Japan Cup. His effort in the St Leger was perhaps below par, but these are really classy races, and this race today represents a step down in class from his end of season targets from last year. He showed that he is fit and ready recently, when absolutely trouncing his rivals in a race at Ripon. That did not tell us anything about his ability, but it did show that he was race fit and ready for this. 3/1 looks far too big, and a win bet is suggested in a very small field, that arguably lacks class. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bets 5 and 6 - FURY and PATHFORK 2 x 1pt E/W bets @ 16/1 and 11/2 2000 GUINEAS At last – the first flat racing classic of the season, and what a race is in store for us all. We have all heard about Frankel, and we have seen how well he appears to be. He looked the absolute best 2 year old of 2010 and is currently the favourite for the Derby, aswell as odds on favourite for this. However, he is never backable at the price of ½, far from it. Whilst he does look a class act, I think that he may be vulnerable over this straight mile, when put up against quality opposition. There are 2 horses who I suggest backing against him in the Guineas. Firstly, FURY A horse I won with, on each of his races to date. He was a late starter, winning a Newbury race at the back end of last season, before contesting, and winning a valuable sales race over the Guineas course at Newmarket. He beat 26 classy rivals that day, and although there was nothing of Frankel’s calibre in the line up – he won so well that he has to be backed in the Guineas. He clearly handles all types of ground, and has the all important course form in the book too. He is a massive price in my opinion, with 16/1 available for him. Top Irish jockey Jonny Murtagh takes the ride on him on Saturday, and this just adds another string of confidence to the tip. I can see him running a huge race, and whilst he may well not quite be in Frankel’s league, he will be very close to making the frame. At 16/1, he is a value each way selection. The second horse against Frankel is Irish raider, PATHFORK. Heavily backed in the last few weeks, Pathfork is now around the 11/2 mark. Once again, an each way bet on him in the Guineas will give you an excellent run for your money. The form he has over some of the rest of the field here is notable, especially his win ahead of Casamento. His trainer is bullish about his chances, and I cannot see him being out of the frame. He is quite literally an each way bet to nothing in my opinion. 2 x 1pts E/W bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bet 7 - ASTROPHYSICAL JET - 2pts win @ 7/2 PALACE HOUSE STAKES This 5f cavalry charge is a favourite race of mine. This years renewal does not appear to be as strong on paper, and is a bit more of a difficult puzzle to solve as a result. However, one horse in particular sticks out as being the one to beat, and it is the filly, ASTROPHYSICAL JET. She is a real speed ball, as she showed last year when winning on 3 occasions. She moves so smoothly, and has the ability to take the gaps when they appear. She has some absolutely rock solid form in the book already, and is a sprinter to follow this year (I have included her in every one of my many Tote 10 to Follow entries). She has beaten the Prix De L’Abbeye winner, Gilt Edged Girl, with ease in the past, and has the progressive profile that means that she could well keep on improving for a few more years to come. I am really sweet on her chances here, and also fancy her to appear at Royal ascot later on in the summer. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bet 8 - ZAIN SHAMARDAL - 2pts win @ 4/1 QIPCO HANDICAP The final race of day one is another handicap, and one that can go the way of the Meehan colt, ZAIN SHAMARDAL. He qualifies for a handicap mark after 3 runs for the yard last season, and I think that he has been very well treated indeed. He is said to be a very progressive type, who has done well over the winter, and should be able to make the most of the mark he has been assigned. Although still a maiden, he is the type to improve from 2 to 3, and I think that he too could be a serious horse to follow on the flat this season. Keep an eye out for him appearing at a valuable Royal Ascot handicap in June if he wins this on Saturday. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 29, 2011 Author Share Posted April 29, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bet 9 - ALBEN STAR - 4.20 - 2pts win @ 9/2 Alben Star can justify favouritism for the bang in form Fahey yard. The horse looks like he will make a better 3 year old than 2 year old, and was arguably unlucky on his last start of the season at York. Prior to that he won his first two starts at the Scottish tracks, Musselburgh and Ayr. This represents a big step up in class from those, but the yard clearly have confidence in him, and must be sweet on him to enter him in this very tricky looking handicap. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bets 10 - Chester – 2.20 – FORTE DEI MARMI - 11/2 (Paddy Power) A nice horse who I followed last year, he made great progress as a handicapper (partly down to a few exceptional rides from Fallon). He knows him very well and has stated this week that he has a huge chance in this Group race. He was not impressive on his seasonal debut, but may have needed that run. Luca Cumani says that the horse is in top form, and Kieron Fallon has also said that the run he has already had this season will see him right. At 11/2 it is a nice price on an animal who could well turn out to be top class, although we are facing a rival who could turn out to be a bit special in the form of Await The dawn, so an each way bet is advised here. It is a wide open looking contest in my opinion, and I do not feel that the favourite merits to be odds on – therefore there could be a bit of value in backing Forte Dei Marmi. 1pt E/W Bet 11 and 12 - Chester – 2.55 – SLUMBER and SADLERS RISK 2 x 2pt win @ 9/4 and 12/1 Essentially, I am taking on the favourite here in a very decent looking 5 runner heat. Nathaniel does have some smart form in the book, including a run behind Frankel. I think we can safely assume that he is not in the same league as Frankel this year, but has he improved from last year? I think at the prices on offer, he is too short, at under the 2/1 mark, and there must be some value in backing against him here today. Slumber is the first horse who I like to beat him, last seen at Epsom, he was very impressive in making his seasonal debut and beating 4 rivals quite comfortably. He should be sharper for that run, and should also like this type of track – although not a massive price, I think he represents better value than Nathaniel. However, there is another in the field, at double figure odds who I fancy could well upset the field – Sadlers Risk. At 12/1 he is set to run a big race, and should get close to the market leaders. He disappointed last time out, at Newmarket, but is said to be far better than what he showed that day. His stable report him to be flying at home, and have him ready for what is expected to be a big run here today. 2 x 2pts win Bet 13 - Chester – 5.10 – PEKAN STAR – 1pt e/w @ 5/1 (VcBet) A tricky looking handicap finishes the card today, and although Nibani looks like he could make it into a decent handicapper, he is too short in the market for me, and I think that the second market leader – Pekan Star, should infact go off favourite. A really well bred type, he looked impressive towards the back end of last season, where he made a favourable impression on debut at Newmarket before going on to win a large field race at Nottingham impressively. Subject to pleasing reports on how he has wintered, Pekan Star is available to back at 5/1 this morning, and I think that an each way bet on him in this race could be the way to go. As mentioned, Nibani could be anything and Satwa Moon is always dangerous, so the selection does have some strong rivals. 1pt e/w Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bet 14 - Ascot - 3.25 - Hawkeyethenoo - 10/1 Hawkeyethenoo is the first selection of the day. He is a horse who has improved beyond all recognition in the last 12 months. He was a real big player in large field handicaps last year, and is another horse to follow this season. Last weekend, at Newmarket, he was an unlucky 4th. He got caught up in traffic twice, and was very unlucky to do so. He still managed to finish like an absolute train and was a very fast finishing 4th. Tomorrow should suit him better, the flat track will suit his style of running, and the fact that he has no corners to contend with should eliminate the possibility of being caught up in traffic. He shows a tremendous turn of foot, and is a horse who can certainly pay his way for trainers and punters alike. Gary Bartley is his jockey tomorrow, and is able to take a valuable 3 pounds off his back. In my opinion, he is very good value for his claim, and although not a 'fashionable' name, he is a decent jockey who should also be followed this year. The fact that 12/1 is still available for Hawkeye is surprising in my opinion, and that price should be snapped up. He is a decent bet, and if unlucky again tomorrow, should be followed later in the season. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bet 15 - 3.10 Lingfield - Hurricane Higgins @ 11/4 This horse is said to be a really exciting prospect by his connections. He was declared a non runner 2 weeks ago, but should take his place in the line up here tomorrow. Although this is not a likely derby winner, this race is a recognised trial run for the big Epsom classic. The Johnstone yard is getting into top gear now, and recent runs have been promising. This trial does not look too strong on paper, and Hurricane Higgins is forecast to be 3/1. This really should be viewed as being a value bet, I was expecting this horse to go off at the 15/8 - 2/1 mark. A win bet is advised on this exciting prospect. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bet 16 - Haydock 4.10 - Victoire de Lyphar - 11/4 A very small field go to post here, and there are some class prospects in the line up. One who really does have to be feared is Victoire de Lyphar. He was prolific last season, winning his first 2 starts before finishing in a respectable 2nd on his 3rd and 4th starts. Tomorrow sees him make his seasonal reappearance and I think he has a chance to go in on his debut. He showed last year that he can win first time out, and his stable certainly know how to send out a winner on their reappearance. He has shown that he can handle the forecast fast going and he will be racing on that tomorrow. He does seem to prefer slightly bigger fields, but that should not put us off backing him here. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Have not really hit the ground running yet this season. Have had a few winners here and there, but need to pick up a bit of momentum now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Glad to have found a double figure winner! Unlucky with Hurricane Higgins, he will win soon... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 8, 2011 Author Share Posted May 8, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Starting to get into the swing of things again for the season now. Had a few poor runs, but I think alot of the losers I have backed will have come on for their first run. Notably, Hurricane Higgins. Also, have had a few non-runners, so the full summary is included below: Quick update: Bets - 14 Wins - 2 Places - 1 Bank - +1pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 8, 2011 Author Share Posted May 8, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+00pts) Bet 15 - LEOPARDSTOWN - 4.45 - ZAMINAST @ 11/4 Another horse here who I thought would be priced alot shorter than she has been. I was glad to see this price available this morning. She is a once raced filly, closely related to Measuring Time - the prolific winner who runs later on in the same card. Her initial run was favourable, with her winning a decent race, the form of which has since been franked. The stable targetted this race last year as a prep for the eventual 1000 Guinesa winner, Bethrah, and it is thought that Zaminast may be heading down that same route. Her main market rival Handassa is also a once raced filly, who won on debut - but not as impressively as the selection here. It is thought that the track at Galway, where Zaminast won her first race, did not suit her style of running - and she should be seen in an even better light today. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 9, 2011 Author Share Posted May 9, 2011 2 Hannon 2 year olds in the first at Windsor this evening. He seems to win these with his eyes closed... What about the forecast?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 9, 2011 Author Share Posted May 9, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) Glad I wasnt at Windsor tonight as I would have backed that Hannon horse 'Glee', in the first. Looks like the type he does well with at Windsor... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 9, 2011 Author Share Posted May 9, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) Bet 16 - MASHATU - 15.20 Yarmouth 2pts win @ 3/1 (365) First horse to run twice for me this season, and I think he should have a better chance than the last day when finishing second, also at Yarmouth. He steps down in trip for this race tomorrow, but with a bit of cut in the ground it is thought that Mashatu will be seen in a better light. He should strip fitter for his first run of the season and it would be a disappointment if he were not able to get his head infront in a race of this standard. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 9, 2011 Author Share Posted May 9, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) Bet 17 - PIANO - 16.20 Yarmouth - 2pts win @ 2/1 (365) A short price, but looks a class act in the field for her very smart connections. She is hoped to be a black type filly in the making, after her very impressive 3 year old campaign she has been kept in training. This race is weak, and is far below the level in which it is hoped she will be competing in later on in the year. The trip is ideal, and as with Mashatu, she should be in better condition for having a run already under her belt this season. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 9, 2011 Author Share Posted May 9, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) Bet 18 - SAGRAMOR - 15.40 Warwick - 1pt E/W @ 5/1 (VcBet) Making his seasonal reappearance for Hughie Morrison, Sagramor is thought to be well handicapped for the season ahead. The trainer is sweet on his chances this season, stating that 'he should be a decent horseto go handicapping with this season'... The mile trip should suit him, he has already won over 7f. In time, it is thought he will be stepped up in trip. For now, the trainer is content to see how his handicap mark is going to pan out over 7f. His trainer knows how to place his handicappers, and I am pleased to be able to ge a price of 5/1 on him tomorrow. 1pt E/W Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) Bet 17 - PIANO - 16.20 Yarmouth - 2pts win @ 2/1 (365) A short price, but looks a class act in the field for her very smart connections. She is hoped to be a black type filly in the making, after her very impressive 3 year old campaign she has been kept in training. This race is weak, and is far below the level in which it is hoped she will be competing in later on in the year. The trip is ideal, and as with Mashatu, she should be in better condition for having a run already under her belt this season. 2pts win Will be surprised if she doesn't win this, 2/1 looks a massive price considering how good she allegedly is and the terrible ride given last time. Good luck!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 9, 2011 Author Share Posted May 9, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) Will be surprised if she doesn't win this, 2/1 looks a massive price considering how good she allegedly is and the terrible ride given last time. Good luck!:ok Cheers mate. Still available at 365, into 6/4 at VcBet now... Yeah, looks to be far ahead of anything else in the line up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 11, 2011 Author Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) Missed Pekan Star today for the thread - managed to get a bet on him, but only at the last minute. Won well, and looks to be one to follow. I flagged him up last week before he was declared a n/r... Did anyone else get their gg.com alerts through really late today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev2oo9 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) My trainer alerts came through at 5 yesterday , maybe It just depends Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 11, 2011 Author Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) Mine usually come through then too. Today it wasnt until just before the off! Weird though, as I have received mine for tomorrow OK... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 11, 2011 Author Share Posted May 11, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) Bet 19 - SEVILLE - 2.30 York - 2pts win @ 15/8 (Bet 365) The Dante, what a race we have in store here. The current Derby picture is very confused indeed. Nobody seems to know exactly who will be favourite for the big Epsom race, but I think we will see a clear favourite after this race. There are 2 real talking horses in the line up – in the form of Carlton House and World Domination. Each of these has won a Newbury maiden race, but nothing else. It is impossible to tell just how good these horses are, or could be. However, The Newmarket gallop watcher are screaming out the World Domination is the real deal – his home work has been excellent apparently. However, the horse I am keen to take these two on with is SEVILLE. This horse has proven form in the book. His run behind Casamento in the racing Post trophy is rock solid, and that run shows that he can mix it with horses who are certainly out of the top drawer. The Ballydoyle yard are flying at the moment, their string was unbelievable at Chester, and if their hot streak has continued into this week – then Seville will be a very difficult horse to beat. I expect him to win this, and then go off favourite in the Epsom Derby. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted May 12, 2011 Author Share Posted May 12, 2011 Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+01pts!) Bets 20 and 21 - DEAUVILLE FLYER and HANOVERIAN BARON - 2.00 York -@ 10/1 and 12/1 A real tricky looking race, but one in which 2 favourites of mine go to post, in the form of DEAUVILLE FLYER and HANOVERIAN BARON. Firstly, Deauville Flyer seems to like it round the Knavesmire, winning twice at extreme distances last year. I think that Kieren Fallon has a good relationship with him, and really seems to be able to get a tune out of him. There are bigger targets this season for him than this – notably the Ebor and Northumberland Plate – but this seems like a sensible place to start him off for the season. He likes the track, and has ran well when fresh before. His trainer, Tim Easterby is keen to stress that he is a horse who they really like, and has put him forward as the horse to follow for the season from his yard. The second horse I like the look of here is Hanoverian Baron. Has really come on in the last year having been stepped up in trip after joining the Newcombe yard. He is a prolific winner of middle distance races, including this race last year. The distance here seems to be ideal for him, and he is sure to like the ground as he seems to act on all types. He too has shown that he can run well fresh, and although he is 9lb higher in the weights than he was this time last year, that should be a fair increase for a horse who is admirably consistent in this sort of race. 2 each way bets are the way to go for this race. 2 x 1pt E/W bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.