Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2011 (+30pts)

[alexmac]

So, after a semi successful jumps season, I am switching my attention to the flat. As before, I have compiled a list of horses to follow, from reading up some of the preview articles, guides and books to the new season. I have also included a number of my own selections, from horses I have followed in previous seasons, and also, some horses I simply fancy to do well this season. The aim is to back each horse to level stakes. I have had the dilemma of horses running against each other before, and have never worked out a successful formula as to how best get around this situation. I do not foresee this happening too many times this season, but when it does I will have to think very carefully about staking plans. As before, any horses with a guide price of 5/1 or greater will be backed each way. Paddy Power will be used to take advantage of 'BOG' as well as their regular money back specials. The starting bank is 200pts, and the aim of the thread is to show a profit, no matter how small, by the end of the flat racing season. I am also planning on using the thread as a bit of a diary to the flat season this year. I know other PL'ers have done this in the past, and I have enjoyed following their thoughts. So, if you do read something i my thread and agree/disagree then please post up...! It would be good to get some good debate going, as well as finding lots of winners. All the best to everyone, and hopefully we will all be celebrating a profitable season :) Alex

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 The horses for the season: Acrostic Akmal Amour Propre Arctic Astrophysical Jet Atasari Awzaan Azmeel Bernie The Bolt Blissful Moment Border Patrol Canford Cliffs Cape Blanco Captain James Cook Ceilidh House Chiberta King Cool Strike Cosmic Sun Cygnet Dancing David Darley Sun Definity Deirdre Dick Turpin Elusive Pimpernel Embsay Crag Fame and Glory Famous Name Fastnet Storm Feet of Fury Fencing Master Free Judgement Gertrude Bell Ginger Jack Gold Rules Green Lightning Greyfriarschorista Illustrious Prince - run 1, won 1 Inler Jan Vermeer Jesse James Julie’s Jet Kaldoun Kingdom Karasiyra King’s Warrior Kithonia Long Lashes Lord Shanakill Manifest Markazzi Master of Arts Mawatheeq Midday Mont Agel Mufarrh Muwakaba Nibani Opus Maximus Palavicini Pastoral Player Precision Break Principal Role Profound Beauty Rainbow Peak Rashaad Rasmy Reiteration Remember When Revered Rip Van Winkle Roi De Vitesse Rumoush Safari Sunup Safina Sagacious Shintoh Ship’s Biscuit Showcasing Special Duty St Nicholas Abbey Steady Tiger Steinbeck Strawberrydaiquiri Striking Spirit Stunning View Tarablaze Tenessee Think Its All Over Timepiece Trip The Light - run 1, won 1 Twice Over War Artist Waseet Workforce You’ll Be Mine Zeitoper

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 1 - TRIP THE LIGHT - Catterick - 15.10 With a list of pretty much top drawer horses to follow this season, it is actually a dark horse who kicks the thread off. Furthermore, the jockey riding this dark horse is also somewhat an unknown quantity - M Jeziorek takes a useful 7lbs off Trip The Light in this 9 runner handicap. Trip The Light is a real workhorse, having run 26 times in his career, winning 7 times, finishing 2nd 3 times and 3rd twice. If backed using level stakes, he would be 13.46pts up, and hopefully this total can increase tomorrow. From those 26 career starts, 14 came last season, and he was raised 20lbs in the process. However, he still seemed to be capable of winning when last seen racing on the turf, back in October. He returns to the turf tomorrow, after a couple of slightly sub par runs on the AW, and hopefully this will bring back the winning trend. With a course and distance victory to his name, Trip The Light knows how to win here, and with the trip ideal, he could well feature in the finish. 1pt E/W @ 7/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 2 - ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE - Lingfield - 14.00 Jeremy Noseda sends Illustrious Prince back to the AW surface after a promising run behind Godolphin's Asraab last October. That second looked like a very promising display, and a repeat performance here tomorrow should be enough to take this fairly modest looking maiden. Illustrious Prince is expected to a useful miler, and if he can get his season off to a winning start here then he could well be targeted at some much richer races than this later in the season. 2pts win @ 5/2

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 As well as keeping this thread going on a day to day basis, I am also aiming to keep a track on the main ante post bets I make throughout the season. I must stress that ante post betting is still something I have not quite got the hang of, but I hope to be able to remedy that this flat season. I have already selected a few for the Guineas and Derby, and will post them up here too.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Ante Post Bet 1 - 1000 Guineas - FIELD DAY (25/1) Winner of a race that Sariska won the year before at Newmarket, Field Day is my selection for the 1000 Guineas. She beat some very good types that day, including a decent Gosden runner, a Godolphin fancy and Safina, from the Sir Michale Stoute yard. Safina is a horse I have chosen to follow this season, as is Field Day, but it is the latter who I like for the 1000 Guineas. With a course victory to her name already, Field Day looked to have plenty left when winning her maiden, and the way she quickened was very pleasing on the eye. There should well be a bit of e/w value in this race, with the French filly (Special Duty) seemingly far too short a price at the 5/2 mark. I am not quite sure if Field Day will be given a run out prior to the Classic, but I do not expect her to be a 25/1 shot on the day. 1pt E/W Ante Post Bet 2 - 2000 Guineas - WORKFORCE (16/1) Sir Michael Stoute's Workforce has only be seen racing in public on one occasion, but that resulted in a victory at Goodwood, where he destroyed a fairly average looking field by 6 lengths. The second that day, Oasis Dance has gone on to win the Timeform Million at Newmarket since then, thus franking the form and something else. With the expected improvement, Workforce should be a real contender in the 2000 Guineas this year. He is expected to be given an entry before the Guineas meeting, most probably at Newmarket. A win there will see his price come in, and again, I think that the 16/1 looks like absolutely fantastic value. 1pt E/W

[fintron]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 good luck Alex, I have a couple on that list to follow myself, Nibani especially. :ok

[chris34]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Good luck Alex things start to look better with Cravern meeting only a week away :D

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 :cow Cannot wait for the Craven mate.

[bowles10]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Think that price on Workforce will disappear when it wins a trial race Alex, i need to get on!

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Rob, the price has already come in. Best price 12s now. I took the 16s about 5 days ago.... I read in the RAF today that Nevison has questions about whether or not INLER will stay a mile, sees him as being more of a sprinter. He appears to be good pals with the trainer, and clearly knows what he is talking about.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010

Bet 1 - TRIP THE LIGHT - Catterick - 15.10 With a list of pretty much top drawer horses to follow this season, it is actually a dark horse who kicks the thread off. Furthermore, the jockey riding this dark horse is also somewhat an unknown quantity - M Jeziorek takes a useful 7lbs off Trip The Light in this 9 runner handicap. Trip The Light is a real workhorse, having run 26 times in his career, winning 7 times, finishing 2nd 3 times and 3rd twice. If backed using level stakes, he would be 13.46pts up, and hopefully this total can increase tomorrow. From those 26 career starts, 14 came last season, and he was raised 20lbs in the process. However, he still seemed to be capable of winning when last seen racing on the turf, back in October. He returns to the turf tomorrow, after a couple of slightly sub par runs on the AW, and hopefully this will bring back the winning trend. With a course and distance victory to his name, Trip The Light knows how to win here, and with the trip ideal, he could well feature in the finish. 1pt E/W @ 7/1

:cash:cash:cash

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 First 2 bets win for the thread. Illustrious Prince being backed down to 11/10 favourite, whilst Trip The Light drifted to twice his early price, eventually going off at 12/1. With 'BOG' I have managed to get the better prices for each of the horses, and have started the flat season with a nice couple of winners.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 2 Wins - 2 Lost - 0 Bank - 224pts P/L - +24pts

[StuSimmy]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Fantastic start to the thread mate :cash

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Good stuff mate :clap

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Thanks :) Going to try and keep a more detailed record of each horse's run, what trip it was, going etc this year. Will follow up with today's details later.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Trip the Light (v) - 07/04/10 - Catterick - 1m4f - Good to Soft - SP, 12/1 - Merzena Jeziorek - Class 3 Illustrious Prince - 07/04/10 - Lingfield - 1m - AW - SP, 11/10 - William Buick - Class 5

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 3 - STUNNING VIEW - Curragh - 14.45 Dermot Weld sends Stunning View to The Curragh for his first run of the season, and despite being pitted against some very nice types in the form of Alfred Nobel and Song Of My Heart, he stands a good chance. Victorious once last season, he did run below par in the Goffs Million Mile here last time out. In retrospect, the ground may have been against him that day, as his previous 2 runs had come with a bit of cut in the ground. Conditions are Heavy in Ireland today, and that should help Stunning View get back into the winners enclosure. He is, however, an each way bet, as the price of 6/1 is higher than the benchmark I have set for a win bet. I think he has a very good chance, as the Ballydoyle runners are apparently in need of their first run, and the favourite may be slightly below his best here today. 1pt E/W 5/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 4 - FAME AND GLORY - Curragh - 16.15 Sure to be odds on, but he is that price for a reason. Fame and Glory is a top top quality horse, who would have won more Group 1s than he dod last year, had he not been born in the same year as Sea The Stars. I am glad to see that Ballydoyle have kept him in training, and I think that he will have an excellent season. Today, he will return to the scene of his Irish Derby victory for his first run of the new season, and he should win with ease. Gan Amhras, his English Derby rival will be his main danger, but he has beaten him before, and I do not see how that form can be reversed. Despite the Ballydoyle horses being in need of a run, I think that a 70% fit Fame and Glory would be good enough to win this one, and expect him to do it in style. 2pts win 4/6

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 :( Not a great day. Fame certainly didn't cover himself in Glory today I am afraid. HOWEVER, he did need that run, and I am sure that with slightly better ground he would have still won today. He will certainly pay his way this season. Stunning View was far from Stunning, and never looked like making the frame. Unsure of what to make of this run, perhaps he was not nearly fit, perhaps the ground was just too testing? Either way, a run to forget today and he should be capable of far better next time. Bets - 4 Wins - 2 Lost - 2 Bank - 220pts P/L - +20pts

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bet 5 - NIBANI - Windsor - 16.50 Seen once last year, in a decent 1m maiden at Newmarket, Nibani come to the fore this season, with a bit of a lofty reputation. Looking at his relatives, Conduit, Petrushka and Stream of Gold we can see that he is very well bred, and big things are expected. He has all the fancy entries, and with a bit of experience already under his belt, he should be all set for a big run on his seasonal debut. This looks like a pretty hot maiden at Windsor, and I am positive that it will throw up a large number of winners. Hopefully, Nibani will be one of them, if not tomorrow, then later on in the season. 2pts win 10/11

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Well, Nibani appears to be another who was in need of a run. He broke well and held a good position, then had absolutely nothing when Ryan Moore asked about 3f out. He was eased up towards the end of the race, and I would not really be surprised if he was turned out again pretty soon. He looked good in the paddock, and shaped as being the winner in running. It was quite a messy race, and with the 50/1 shot winning I don't know what to make of it...

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets - 5 Wins - 2 Lost - 3 Bank - 218pts P/L - +18pts

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Nibani in the pre parade ring at Windsor today.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 5 and 6 - FASTNET STORM and JESSE JAMES - Pontefract - 15.20 Two runners oppose each other here tomorrow in what looks like a desperately tricky race to solve. My two, Fastnet Storm and Jesse James are both towards the head of the betting, however, there are a large number who could be in with a shout here. Firstly, Fastnet Storm runs his first race of the season, and has previously won over course and distance. He has in the past needed his first run of the season, so there may be some question marks over his fitness, but the same could have been said for Trip The Light last week, who won at 12/1. Micky Fenton gets the ride tomorrow, and has steered him to 4 of his 5 career wins already, including a course and distance success. Fastnet Storm appears to act on all ground, and can vary his running style to suit either a fast paced race, or a more relaxed gallop. He is not a fashionable horse, and does not run for fashionable connections, thus giving some very good value. He has a 33% win rate and has made the frame (including wins) 8 times in his 15 race career. A really honest horse, he always seems to give you a decent run for your money, and the same is hoped for here tomorrow. Jesse James is the second runner for the thread in this race, and once again - he does not have what you would deem to be fashionable connections. Tomorrow, he has an excellent jockey in the shape of Steve Drowne taking the ride, and he is another type who can be quietly fancied to make the frame. Last seen finishing 4th to Starluck at Kempton, he should jhave come on for that run and be in pretty good shape here. He was bought out of the Gosden yard for 62000 Guineas last Autumn, and his connections will be hoping to see some of that fee returned tomorrow. He does have the potential to be a decent enough horse, who also seems to act on most ground, and can be there or thereabouts at the finish here tomorrow. 2 x 1pt E/W bets each at 8/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 A big week is underway then, with the Craven meeting starting tomorrow and a couple of excellent Newbury cards on Friday and Saturday. I am looking forward to seeing Canford Cliffs makes his seasonal re-appearance on Saturday in the Group 3 at Newbury. Deirdre is another interesting runner that day. Newmarket sees some excellent fillies races tomorrow, where a lot of the horses featured in this thread will be opposing each other. Friday sees Elusive Pimpernel make his seasonal return in the Craven, and I am very excited about seeing him in action. In my opinion however, the Earl of Sefton Stakes is the race of the week, with Tranquil Tiger, Gan Amhras, Ibn Khaldun, Kingdom of Fife, Palavicini and Chantilly Tiffany all lining up - should be a cracking race. Was at Windsor last night for their first meet of the season and it was enjoyable. The Hannon/Hughes combo came good in the first race of the season, with Zebedee winning easily in the 2yo maiden that opened the card. He will turn up at Royal Ascot I would imagine. Nibani was not fit, that was clear, and I think he will come on a great deal for the run. The race was a mess, with a bunch finish, so I am not discounting Nibani and I am pretty sure there will be better things to come in the next few months.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Big day of flat racing today, and a big day for the thread, with 8 horses running. 3 are competing against each other in 2 races however, so I will have to have a bit of luck to show a profit, but fingers crossed.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 7,8 and 9 - ATASARI, PRINCIPAL ROLE and SAFINA - Newmarket 16.10 A nice looking race this, ad 3 of my horses go to post in the shape of Atasari, Principal Role and Safina. All are prominent in the betting, each being 5/1. It is unfortunate to have so many opposing each other so early in the season, but when this has happened in the past I have often missed out by selecting one of them and leaving the other2 out. I am backing each of these, each way today, and crossing my fingers for a win and a place from the 3. Firstly, Atasari. Heavily raced as a 2 year old, and successful on 2 occasions on varying going. Most races have come in Ireland, but a second to Music Show at Newmarket in October leaves hope that she will act here again. From 7 runs last year, she placed on 2 occasions, aswell as her two wins, and shows a healthy levl stakes profit from all runs. The yard are shrewd, and must think a great deal of this one as she is thrown in here against some very nice types on her seasonal debut. Principal Role comes into this race with a very different profile from Atasari. Raced only once last term, she won on debut at Yarmouth over 1m1f. She only won a neck that day, but was badly hampered at the start, and the fact that she got ahead on the line was very impressive. Very well bred, she is expected to be a top class filly for her connections this year, and a race like this should not be too much to ask from her. Safina too was raced only once last year, in a hot maiden at newmarket where she finished 3rd to the very useful looking Field Day. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, she is sure to have come on for that run, and is expected to turn into a top class filly this year. Her breeding suggests that this trip will be ideal, and she should make her presence felt here today. 3 x 1pt E/W bets, all at 5/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's Flat Season Thread 2010 Bets 10, 11 and 12 - Mufarrh, Timepiece and Rumoush - Newmarket 16.45 Another 3 oppose each other in this heat, and once again, all are being backed. Mufarrh each way, and the other two as win bets. I was surprised to see the price of 18/1 available for Mufarrh this morning. Subject to some very pleasing gallop reports this week, this colt is expected to be out of the top drawer. Seen three times last season, finishing 3rd, 2nd and 1st each time, Mufarrh is the owners second string in this event, however I still believe he is capable of running into the money. His victory was impressive - a 4 length success ahead of an interesting Stoute runner, Official Style, it is expected that the mile trip will be to his liking, and if he has progressed since his last win then he could very much be one to watch over this distance. The big price does suggest that Rumoush is the owner's first string, however, we have all seen stable/owner second strings win races like this in the past, and I am sure that it will happen again in the future, hopefully today. Rumoush, a filly, receives weight from all but one of these today, and that could be handy. The price of 9/2means she will be a win bet, and hopefully she will be able to repeat the performance she put on when winning her only race last season, an 8f win at Lingfield. She ran very green that day, put the penny clearly dropped during the race and she stayed on nicely to win. She is expected to be a major player in some decent pattern races this year, and a victory here would come as no surprise. Timepiece is fancied for the Oaks, and if she is up to winning that calibre of race then she will be expected to win this easily. Seen 3 times last season, Timpiece finished 2nd on debut, but then won her following 2 races including a Listed victory last time out at this track. She does carry a penalty for that, but it should not prevent her from stamping her class on this race and a big run is expected today. Mufarrh - 1pt E/W @ 18/1 Rumoush - 2pts win @ 9/2 Timepiece - 2pts win @ 11/8