Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

Isn't studying form and databases boring if you don't love the sport Fin? Or is that an aspect you enjoy?

I do enjoy watching races Ginge but struggle to find the time to do so so don't have much option other than to be a database studier. In addition to working full-time and attempting to write up a part-time PhD I also want to take time off on a night and detach with the missus - like most people really - and that just limits me in the time I have for study. So what I have tried to do is become efficient at reading the racecards and using the RP and Sporting Life databases, to try alleviate the need for watching hours of replays, allowing me to cram in study whenever i get a spare hour or so. It isn't ideal and I think bigger profits will be made by actually watching the races and replays first hand, but it is the best I can do under the circumstances. I think many other punters find themselves in the same boat? I do like the sport and that does help motivate to study, yeah. I couldn't muster up the same enthusiasm to read the stock markets, for example, but that is because they dont give the adrenaline rush that racing does. But the point I was trying to make before that BH picked up on was that if gambling was banned in racing then that would change everything for me. If I am spending hours each day reading form, getting it in the neck from the missus and impeding on my work time, then the rewards need to be worth my while. Other than monetary rewards I fail to see what else racing could offer me or any other punter in my position? It is nice seeing Kauto Star make history be reclaiming his Gold Cup crown, for example, but for all that hype, it doesn't give me a valid reason to give to the missus to excuse why I spent two hours on the PC last night neglecting her whilst she watched her baby programme!!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? Would a form book that you can dip in and out of, studying for a particular day's racing be better? Rather than having to watch a great deal of TV coverage etc. Then you could spend all week helping out and just study Friday evening for Saturday's racing. Watching races is less essential with a good form book. Or if you concentrate on say the top grades, there would not be as much racing to watch. Or even, dare I say it, give racing a miss until baby is here and older? Sounds as though you have / are going to have your hands full without the racing Fin!

[markmywords]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? spot on fin:notworthy

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? You dont have to be the best to win. You have to jump all the fences and be the best ''on the day'' Even Ted walsh said one day on the morning line, you still need luck on your side, even the very best can fall or get brung down. It was the media that had the Gold cup down as a 2 horse race, there is no such thing at the top level. If the Top chasers won time after time how boring would racing be, as my dad used to say- sometimes it pays to look at what finished 2nd or 3rd because they only got beat by 1 or 2. Cheltenham will always be a special place and the cheltenham festival will be around more than this jokers article. When i put my money down and take my chance at the festival i have one rule of thumb, make sure they have ''WON'' or been placed at the track.

[markmywords]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? I enjoy watching the race I even appreciate horses that beat mine which at the moment is 99% of horses but inside the hope/wish is for that bit of study to be repaid and there is not a bettter feeling than being paid for the judgement

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

Would a form book that you can dip in and out of, studying for a particular day's racing be better? Rather than having to watch a great deal of TV coverage etc. Then you could spend all week helping out and just study Friday evening for Saturday's racing. Watching races is less essential with a good form book. Or if you concentrate on say the top grades, there would not be as much racing to watch. Or even, dare I say it, give racing a miss until baby is here and older? Sounds as though you have / are going to have your hands full without the racing Fin!

The only thing with the formbooks Ginge is the cost, and I am a Yorkshireman! I pay £7.50 for the Racing Post and don't really want to spend much more than that really, especially with all the looming costs, as you say, with the bambino. I know you are a big Timeform man..if you dont mind me asking, how much does that cost, the option where they regularly send you out pages and you collect them in the ring binder (I think that is what you said before). My plan is to stick to class 2-4 handicaps and if I am finding that too much then just to stick to sprints because in terms of success by distance, the sprints showed the most profit last season. If even that is too much then yeah, I might give it up for a year or so, but to be honest I'd rather sack off football completely before giving up on racing.

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

I enjoy watching the race I even appreciate horses that beat mine which at the moment is 99% of horses but inside the hope/wish is for that bit of study to be repaid and there is not a bettter feeling than being paid for the judgement

Agree 100 %. There is no better feeling than being paid out for your own judgement, especially if its an outsider that very few others were on. I think the Ladbrokes slogan "everybody's got an opinion, what is your's worth" is spot on and hits the nail on the head, because at the end of the day that is what gambling is all about - having an opinion, and backing that opinion up with the correct level of staking to reflect the strength of that opinion.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? You can own every form book in the world that still dont make them win. All the pundits are around horses way more than us look back at how many winners they picked. class animals are just that, class, but there is ''No'' winning magic formula.

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

You can own every form book in the world that still dont make them win. All the pundits are around horses way more than us look back at how many winners they picked. class animals are just that, class, but there is ''No'' winning magic formula.

horses don't read sporting life eh Jim

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

horses don't read sporting life eh Jim

Spot on fella...

[stewartd14]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

Worst thread title ever; you just can't beat Cheltenham

As I said in the opening post ... I agree - for me, Cheltenham is the best 4 days racing there is across the whole season. However, the thread was a question, and designed to provoke debate - which has happened :ok I think the key for me, and also the main theme of the article was whether we expect too much from it due to all the attention we give it. I think its very easy to expect too much from Cheltenham .... and the amount of people slightly dissapointed when Imperial Commander won the Gold Cup maybe backs up that we did expect too much (of the GC battle between Kauto/Denman if nothing else)... no matter how brilliant the festival was.

[billy the punter]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

You can own every form book in the world that still dont make them win

It does if you read it right. I think it's damaging for punters to shirk resposibilities with statements like this and "if form was the answer we'd all be millionaires". This isn't directed solely at you Jimmy as I believe you've said before you only really play on the big meetings - however I know plenty of punters who bet seriously and say similar things. It is HOW you interpret form seperates winners from losers. :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

The only thing with the formbooks Ginge is the cost, and I am a Yorkshireman! I pay £7.50 for the Racing Post and don't really want to spend much more than that really, especially with all the looming costs, as you say, with the bambino. I know you are a big Timeform man..if you dont mind me asking, how much does that cost, the option where they regularly send you out pages and you collect them in the ring binder (I think that is what you said before). My plan is to stick to class 2-4 handicaps and if I am finding that too much then just to stick to sprints because in terms of success by distance, the sprints showed the most profit last season. If even that is too much then yeah, I might give it up for a year or so, but to be honest I'd rather sack off football completely before giving up on racing.

Flat 2010 Timeform Perspective (race by race form book in ring binder) Now to Dec 31st is £459. Alternatively: Flat 2010 Computer Timeform £587. Alternatively: Buy an occasional (weekly) Black Book (horse by horse format) £22 each. Alternatively: Black Book + Briefing (5 day decs with weight adjusted ratings and rating for their last 3 performances). Alternatively: Buy a Timeform Racecard £5 each from timeform.com, or mail order £6. If you are only interested in the main Saturday meeting the last option may be best. With Timeform, there is no need to buy the Racing Post. Anything else that you need to know can be found on the Free racing post and sporting life websites. Hope that helps Fin.

[BillyHills]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? I see what your saying Fin and understand your views, it came over like it wouldnt matter if there were two Flies racing each other, I know guys can make money without getting emotionally involved, Slapdash is a perfect example, I just think it helps to know everything about a sport as you can and in my experience that has led to loving the sport also, I would still go to a race meeting if there were no bookies present, i dont suppose many on here would join me by the looks of it but eh each to their own. Good luck with the juggling at home mate, been there, done that, many years ago!! Ginge, used to love the Black Book, has it changed much over the last few years? Would get the Computer Timform if I had more time to use it fully, had the Raceform version last year and enjoyed it but just didnt use it to its max and then its hard to justify the cost unfortunately.

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? fair play to you BH, its obvious you have more passion for the sport than the average punter, and with your photography it gives you a good reason to go racing without the need for a bet, as you obv have a passion for those photos.I reckon a gallery would go down a treat on here, some of them are crackers :ok Ginge, thanks for the prices, i might get a few 5 quid racecarda next aeason when pushed for time, but not gonna commit to the regular updates for now.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

It does if you read it right. I think it's damaging for punters to shirk resposibilities with statements like this and "if form was the answer we'd all be millionaires". This isn't directed solely at you Jimmy as I believe you've said before you only really play on the big meetings - however I know plenty of punters who bet seriously and say similar things. It is HOW you interpret form seperates winners from losers. :ok

I understand what your saying but no book will give you the outcome of any race, any such book is nothing more than a guide. No form book will stop a horse falling running out or dropping dead on a race track. Am pretty sure on the 18th of Feb at kelso race track the form book would suggest Zaynar would win a 4 horse race at odds of 1/14.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? over the years i have tried the balck books, my dad used to subscribe and i must admit they were very good. Since joining PL i rely on systems, my own judgement of reading form and also my trends Funnily enough i had this debate with my dad last week as we both said some people just treat Cheltenham as another meeting and do no work whatsoever but back winners as they back thier favourite horses without any thought, this year you could back Binocular, Albertas Run and Imperial Commander to name but 3. All 3 at decent prices. You wouldnt even have to consider their recent form if these are horses you like to follow. I saw guys in the pub on friday picking horses from the tabloid sheets which tell you nothibg aoart from who is riding and the last 6 form figures or so. The fun for me is doing all the study for which you need to be a sort of anorak to be honest. Stats are my game, i can reel these off before the start of a race, i am the same with football, top goalscorers , draw specialists etc i can do all of them I can now go racing and have 2 bets as for me the enjoyment now is going and seeing the horses in the flesh and also just being involved in the whole spectacle.

[billy the punter]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

I understand what your saying but no book will give you the outcome of any race, any such book is nothing more than a guide. No form book will stop a horse falling running out or dropping dead on a race track. Am pretty sure on the 18th of Feb at kelso race track the form book would suggest Zaynar would win a 4 horse race at odds of 1/14.

Yeah I wasn't talking a bout formbooks as such, personally I don't use a formbook but I do read form obviously. I don't want to talk about the Zaynar race as its over, but no serious player gets involved at those odds anyway. But my point some will read the race and see Zaynar/Dunguib as a lay, others reading the same form will make it a banker. It's how the individual interprets the info. It's never the horses fault, it can sometimes be the jockey or trainers fault, but a lot of the time a losing bet is totally down to the punter.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

I understand what your saying but no book will give you the outcome of any race, any such book is nothing more than a guide. No form book will stop a horse falling running out or dropping dead on a race track. Am pretty sure on the 18th of Feb at kelso race track the form book would suggest Zaynar would win a 4 horse race at odds of 1/14.

Jimmy, What a good form book does is (if you can read it correctly) tell you who is likely to fall. But more importantly what is and what is not "value to win". In your example: Reading the form book it is clear Zaynar had the best chance of winning, he was even a probable winner (better than 50% chance). But reading his form, it would have been very clear to most form students; Zaynar had less than a 93.33% chance of winning. A punter needs to win more than 93.33% of his 1/14 bets to make a profit. Or to put it another way, to be a good bet at 1/14 a punter needs to believe Zaynar had a better than 93.33% chance of winning. If a punter's reading of the form book is good enough it will tell him who is value to win. Therefore can help tremendously in making a profit. I know not all punters search for value, but it is the primary way that Fin, Billy and Myself find winners.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? On the subject, I can't imagine there could be people, who can't enjoy and celebrate Cheltenham. I better be dead if I don't feel the slightest thing for it. I am a NH man, but I love watching Epsom, Goodwood and Ascot. Love all those big Saturdays over the jumps with all the Nationals, Hennessies and so on. The NH season isn't geared towards Cheltenham, it looks that way only because Cheltenham really is the real deal and no other festival beats it. That's why everyone is talking about it from Octobar. Nomatter how good the other festivals are and how much people enojy different tracks and types of racing, Cheltenham is Cheltenham and nothing beats it. So for me it isn't season gearing towards it, it's just a celebration of 4 days great racing and I absolutely adore it.

[billy the punter]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

Yeah I wasn't talking a bout formbooks as such, personally I don't use a formbook but I do read form obviously. I don't want to talk about the Zaynar race as its over, but no serious player gets involved at those odds anyway. But my point some will read the race and see Zaynar/Dunguib as a lay, others reading the same form will make it a banker. It's how the individual interprets the info. It's never the horses fault, it can sometimes be the jockey or trainers fault, but a lot of the time a losing bet is totally down to the punter.

Just want to say that I'm not anti-formbooks. I think they can be useful, if I didn't watch nearly all races I would possibly use one, especially for late-season maidens.

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? ah, good old zaynar. That kelso race wont be forgotten by irishbookiebankrupter and myself for a while! :cash

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

I see what your saying Fin and understand your views, it came over like it wouldnt matter if there were two Flies racing each other, I know guys can make money without getting emotionally involved, Slapdash is a perfect example, I just think it helps to know everything about a sport as you can and in my experience that has led to loving the sport also, I would still go to a race meeting if there were no bookies present, i dont suppose many on here would join me by the looks of it but eh each to their own. Good luck with the juggling at home mate, been there, done that, many years ago!! Ginge, used to love the Black Book, has it changed much over the last few years? Would get the Computer Timform if I had more time to use it fully, had the Raceform version last year and enjoyed it but just didnt use it to its max and then its hard to justify the cost unfortunately.

BH, Having the Perspective, I don't need the Black Book, not bought one for at least 8 years. So can't be catagorical. But I don't think it's changed much. Though if bought with the "briefing" does cut down on the work load. Some racecourses have book shops where they usually stock Black Books (out on a friday I believe). Might be an idea to take a peak next time you are there. :ok I have thought about Computer Timeform, but my brother (who is a software engineer) says the computer stuff should be cheaper than paper. So in his opinion is over-priced. And to be honest, I quite like being able to pick it up and read.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

Jimmy, What a good form book does is (if you can read it correctly) tell you who is likely to fall. But more importantly what is and what is not "value to win". In your example: Reading the form book it is clear Zaynar had the best chance of winning, he was even a probable winner (better than 50% chance). But reading his form, it would have been very clear to most form students; Zaynar had less than a 93.33% chance of winning. A punter needs to win more than 93.33% of his 1/14 bets to make a profit. Or to put it another way, to be a good bet at 1/14 a punter needs to believe Zaynar had a better than 93.33% chance of winning. If a punter's reading of the form book is good enough it will tell him who is value to win. Therefore can help tremendously in making a profit. I know not all punters search for value, but it is the primary way that Fin, Billy and Myself find winners.

I have read 1 or 2 in my days, but i flung them out the window lol. I used to be a racing geek with stats etc but i just dont bet these days as much as i used too. Cheltenham has always been pretty special but its also up to the punter to get caught up in hype, some people will even say the Punchestown meeting is better than Cheltenham or even Aintree, i think Cheltenham either works for you or it doesn't but am sure most punters will agree its top class chasing at the highest level.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

Flat 2010 Timeform Perspective (race by race form book in ring binder) Now to Dec 31st is £459. Alternatively: Flat 2010 Computer Timeform £587. Alternatively: Buy an occasional (weekly) Black Book (horse by horse format) £22 each. Alternatively: Black Book + Briefing (5 day decs with weight adjusted ratings and rating for their last 3 performances). Alternatively: Buy a Timeform Racecard £5 each from timeform.com, or mail order £6. If you are only interested in the main Saturday meeting the last option may be best. With Timeform, there is no need to buy the Racing Post. Anything else that you need to know can be found on the Free racing post and sporting life websites. Hope that helps Fin.

Mark, You really invest that much, just to read form? What does all of that provide, that you cannot source online for free or much cheaper at least, that justifies that sort of outlay, before a bet is even made?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? For sure RB. I have Timeform Perspectives going back about 10 years, Racehorses and Chasers & Hurdlers annuals going back to 1984. Timeform is of much higher quality and more accurate. Yes, if I wanted to spend infinately longer looking things up, then I could do without it. If I wanted to work out just one race a day. Timeform is respected all around the world by both Racing and Breeding industry. Most insiders don't take any notice of the International Classificatons (or whatever they are called now). It gives an assessment of every horse's form, breeding, temperament, going and distance requirements etc. Do sometimes disagree with them, but that is all part of the fun. Obviously I don't buy the Computer Timeform, Black Book or Racecards, no use duplicating the information.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

I have thought about Computer Timeform' date=' but my brother (who is a software engineer) says the computer stuff should be cheaper than paper. So [b']in his opinion is over-priced.

May just be me, but I lol'd at the fact your resources have to be value too!!! :rollin Sorry :)

[diamond1924]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? I always wondered how wonderful the Raceform Interactive was? It's just, when you analyse their tipsters' results, they're as mixed a bag as you're average day on here, or anywhere else. They try to sell the most powerful and informative tool/program, but their own tipsters are the usual low average strike rate. If the tool is that brilliant why do they have the usual mix of tips/gallup watchers/angle finders/trend analysts/etc., instead of using their omnipotent computer programme?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ?

May just be me, but I lol'd at the fact your resources have to be value too!!! :rollin Sorry :)

:lol Well, my sig is "Value Is Everything".

[Denman]

Re: Cheltenham Festival - Over-hyped ? It's much harder to find a winner at Cheltenham than anywhere else due to the large fields. I recall hearing somewhere, might have been channel 4 commentary saying that the form is almost impossible to decipher when referring to one of the handicap. I think that's part of the fun digging through all the form, watching the videos, reading previews and trends and then coming to your own conclusion. Then when he get it right all that hard works feels worth it. I also like the fact that you can follow a horse all season and then back it and see it perform well hopefully on its big day out at Cheltenham. Over-hyped I think not. The Cheltenham festival is up there as one of the sporting events of the year, every year.